Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:55 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:02 AM 6/23/2004

Constituency Profile
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Pierre Allard
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Pierre Audette
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Marie-Eve Bilodeau
Bloc Québécois:
Marcel Gagnon
Parti Marijuana Party:
Paul Giroux
Martial Toupin

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik (0.0%)
Guy St-Julien
Champlain (40.4%)
Marcel Gagnon
Saint-Maurice (59.6%)

2000 Result/Résultats:
27,502 52.61%
20,934 40.04%
2,112 4.04%
657 1.26%
1,072 2.05%

(4/224 polls, 32/65672 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(97/192 polls, 31593/68682 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(135/182 polls, 46586/61587 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
Le temps est venu de me mouiller: tous mes indicateurs pointent vers une victoire bloquiste. Paul Martin est haï par les libéraux de ce comté, tous farouchement pro-Chrétien, il va sans dire. Aussi incroyable que cela puisse paraître, des gens qui ont toujours voté pour Monsieur Chrétien voteront cette fois-ci pour le Bloc. Mais ce sera un vote par dépit.
20/06/04 NDP Newbie
Email: [hidden]
Easy Bloc steal in this riding. With Ipsos-Reid having the Bloc 26 points ahead and Ekos having it 36 points ahead (well in excess of its 1993 16 point victory), and Chrétien gone, the Bloc will win easily.
The Bloc tide has risen too high for my earlier prediction of too close to call to still be accurate.
10/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This is definitly one to watch. Chretien fought long and hard to keep his seat, and nearly lost it on more than one occassion. The BQ will fight just as hard (they would love to claim that they hold both Chretien and Charest's old seats in parlieament) to snatch it away. With Chretien gone they could very well do that. If Liberal fortunes improve slightly, they may get to keep it, possibly one of a handful they'll keep outside of Montreal or border regions. One tactic they recently issued, that we predicted they'd use some time ago (see our posting for Beauharnois-Salaberry dated 17/03/04), was the "vote for the bloc will only help the conservatives" rhetoric. It may help them win a few votes and keep a few seats and this could be one of them. Keep an eye on polls in Quebec for this.
02/06/04 Kim Leclerc
Email: [hidden]
N'oublions pas que c'est le comter de Jean Chrétiens et que même s'il a de la difficulté avec Paul Martin, jamais il ne va le laisser passer du mauvais bord, cette homme est trop orgueilleux et l'organisation du comter vraiment trop forte.
27/05/04 RWA
I'll correct my error in my previous post. I must have read that Saint-Maurice was the only riding in Canada NOT to have elected a majority of Paul Martin delegates, and then naturally jumped to the conclusion that they were all Copps delegates.
Nevertheless, it's a significant bit of information that shows the local Liberals are not Martin friendly. A visit here by Martin would be too risky, he could be hounded by Chretien loyalists and embarrassed. On the other hand, Gilles Duceppe must have this riding at the top of his wish list.
I can understand if you're holding off on predicting to see how the Liberal disunity story plays out during the campaign. After all, if Martin comes here for a last-ditch desparate love-in event with Chretien to publically bury the hatchet, it could help them here. But other than that unlikely event, I see this as a Bloc pickup.
27/05/04 NDP Newbie
Email: [hidden]
Chrétien was about the most staunch anti-separatist Francophone I know of.
The Martin Liberals, in contrast, are more concilliatory towards separatists.
I'd call this for the Bloc, given their poll numbers, if not for these two facts, but as it is, it's too close to call.
24/05/04 RetroRyan
I think this one will go to the BQ. Without the former PM running in this riding, the Liberals will lose about 10% of the total vote they received last time. Party leaders usually get this percentage of extra support in their own ridings. However, I'm only tentatively giving this to the BQ - it is possible that a very strong Liberal candidate could win here again.
16/05/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
Attendons voir. C'est le pays de Jean Chrétien, mais aussi celui - au niveau provincial - de Jean-Pierre Jolivet, de Julie Boulet et de Noëlla Champagne, qui a été finalement élue pour le PQ dans les circonstances dramatiques que l'on sait, dignes d'un scénario hollywoodien. Et toujours dans Champlain, Marcel Gagnon avait été élu en 2000 avec une infime majorité de 15 voix, après un recomptage. On dirait que c'est toujours serré dans Champlain. Dans le reste du comté, on semble voter davantage pour la personnalité des candidats (Chrétien, Jolivet, Boulet) que pour les partis. Sans parler des effets qu'auront (ou pas) sur le vote et sur la motivation des électeurs libéraux les circonstances de la désignation de la candidate PLC. Trop tôt pour risquer une prédiction.
22/04/04 RWA
Reasons to get off the fence and call this one for the Bloc
1) No Liberal incumbant, of course
2) No more party leader and PM in the riding, Liberal numbers (which were never that overwhelming to start with) go down
3) Liberal poll numbers still have not recovered in Quebec. It's especially bad in Francophone areas.
4) Lots of local Liberal division. A Chretienite was after the nomination but Martin stepped in because he wanted to ensure a woman (naturally, one very supportive of him) ran in this riding.
5) This was the only riding in Canada to elect more Sheila Copps delegates than Paul Martin delegates to the leadership convention. So if the Chretien loyalists who make up the Liberal membership have a bad taste in their mouth, Martin's handpicked candidate will not have their help.
FONT COLOR=RED>EDITOR NOTE The Liberals in this riding actually elected no Sheila Copps delegates. Instead they elected almost a full slate of "Independent delegates".
19/04/04 Quelqu'un d'Ottawa
Email: [hidden]
The last time Jean Chrétien wasn't the candidate in this riding during a general election, the Conservatives won it (1988). If Martin hadn't turned out to be such a lemon (and hadn't attacked Chrétien to the degree that he did), I'd say this could have been a close race.
Bloc in a walk here (take that Paul). :P
16/04/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
I've been doing some research in Quebec politics, and Saint Maurice-Champlain might be the most interesting riding in the province (I may have submitted a prediction for this riding earlier... if I have could everyone ignore it?)
Although Chrétien held Saint Maurice on and off for 40 years (he was first elected in 1963, when the riding was called Saint-Maurice--Laflèche) all the time the people of this riding were voting for "local boy come good" Jean Chrétien and *not* for the Liberals.
Before Chrétien, Saint Maurice was something of a Créditiste stronghold, and as recently as last year the ADQ (who are strong where the Créditistes were strong) won 30% in the provincial seat of St Maurice... but at the same time it has a left-populist tradition as well... Chrétien himself is a good example of this, as is the fact that in 1988 (when Chrétien was in "retirement" and not standing) the *NDP* finished a strong *second* (and just over 2000 votes ahead of the Liberals. The NDP candidate in 1988(Claude Rompré) stood as the BQ's candidate in 1993).
However in 2000, this was the NDP's worst riding in Canada (I think), which indicates that Chrétien won a lot of working class francophone votes that a normal Liberal doesn't get.
All of which can be used to predict a Liberal hold, a BQ pickup or a NDP/CPC upset.
Either way it's worth a watch.
13/04/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Saint-Maurice (now Saint-Maurice-Champlain) was always more of a Chrétien riding than a Liberal riding...
Provincially it's a safe PQ seat and the only reason why the Bloc didn't win it in 1993 was because local boy come good, Jean Chrétien was the Liberal candidate. The same applies for 1997 and 2000.
I had expected this riding to go BQ *anyway* (as giving Chrétien's long time rival (Paul Martin of course) a bloody nose was always going to be too good to resist), but after the whole Adscam thing (and the subsequent collapse of the Liberals in Quebec) I don't see how a Liberal can win out here... they might pull of an upset hold... but I doubt it.
28/03/04 JT
This riding will go Bloc for sure. The former Prime Minister barely retained this seat and now he is gone this is wde open.
20/03/04 Jerry
Email: jayraybo@hotmail.com
Bataille très intéressante ici, mais le Bloquiste a une petite longueur d'avance sur son adversaire. De plus, Jean-Chrétien n'est plus dans Saint-Maurice cette année !!!
19/03/04 syllap
Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com
the way the Liberals handled their nomination meeting gives you a good idea of how badly they are doing.....Bloc will get the guy from Shawinigan seat
16/03/04 RWA
Chretien's old riding was closer than most leaders' ridings. Without him and with Liberal Quebec poll numbers plunging, the Bloc takes this seat.
Email: [hidden]
I think this will come as a shock to the English media, but anyone that's payed attention to Québec results in the past elections knows that the PM had a pretty hard time holding onto his seat from time to time, and without his personal popularity and/or influence, the Bloc is likely to snatch it up. Being merged with a neighboring Bloc riding helps that quite a bit, too.

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