Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:56 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:57 PM 21/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Julie Baribeau
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Nick Discepola
Bloc Québécois:
Meili Faille
Bert Markgraf
Robert Ramage
Parti Marijuana Party:
Charles Soucy

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Vaudreuil-Soulanges (100.0%)
Nick Discepola

2000 Result/Résultats:
25,837 51.37%
17,424 34.65%
4,135 8.22%
1,999 3.97%
896 1.78%

(188/188 polls, 74632/74632 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
C'est vrai, si l'on se fie aux sondages des firmes de Toronto (IPSOS, EKOS, Compas et cie), ce comté basculerait aux mains des bloquistes. Mais qui croit vraiment que le Bloc aura 54% à 58% du vote ??? C'est nettement exagéré, et probablement dû à une sur-représentation des francophones parmi les répondants aux sondages. Et si les bloquistes y font campagne durant la dernière semaine, c'est parce que leurs sondages internes disent qu'ils ont des chances, mais pas qu'ils sont en avance. Réélection de Nick Discepola.
20/06/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
Nick Discepola may be on his way out. With rising Tory and Bloc fortunes, it is very possible that Meili Faille will be part of the record sized BQ contingent that will take their place in Ottawa, possibly as official opposition.
Nick shouldn't fret too much.... with demerger referendums coming up this weekend, it's very possible that his old City of Kirkland will need a new mayor again, once it is re-instated.
12/06/04 NDP Newbie
The Bloc will take this one narrowly: This riding, as others have stated, would have gone Bloc in 1993 if it had today's boundaries.
The latest Ekos poll gives the Bloc Québécois a humiliating 32 point lead over the Liberals (54 - 22%).
This is far more than in 1993 and should be enough to propel the Bloc to a sweep of some very red ridings, including this one, Outremont, Gatineau, and (as in 1976 with the PQ) maybe even Hull-Aylmer.
10/06/04 JN
Email: [hidden]
I see the NDP being a power in this riding. If not now then definitely in the future. There have been a lot of new arrivals in the riding and this may significantly change traditional voting patterns. The riding is made up of soft nationalists in the eastern and southern sectors of the riding and federalist voters to the north and west of the riding. Both of these groups could potentially swing NDP. I think it depends on Markgrafs campaigning. Basically if the candidate gets out there and meets the people he has as good a chance as any. I think Discepola's wanting to use Kirkland and Mississauga as his models for development will backfire against him. People want to maintain the rural qualities of this riding.
15/05/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
In fact Neil, Pincourt has a francophone majority but also has around 37 % of anglophones ( Census 2001 data ). I don't think that most of the people in this riding are in any way extreme pro-independence oriented people. The matter of the fact is that they are surrounded by anglophones from the West ( Ontario ), from the East ( West Island ), from the South ( U.S.A. ) and there is no acces to the North ( Ottawa river ), so this area is a little bit like a francophone island in the anglophone sea, LOL if you get my comparaison. At the same time, every municipality in this riding has at least 10 % of anglophones, at least... some places like St. Lazare etc have much higher number of English speaking people, even in places like Très St-Rédempteur every 4-th or 5-th household is English speaking. As you know, this area is more of a suburb in the east and more rural in the west and many people are economically linked to the very federalist Montreal. I think this is NOT a good idea for the Bloc to lose time here.
13/05/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
Un comté très fédéraliste, donc victoire facile du PLC.
04/05/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
Victor, I lived in this riding for six years, and ran in 1993 under the Libertarian banner, so I am very familiar with the demographics. I remember how good a run Bloquiste Mario Turbide made at this seat, and can confirm that had the riding existed then, under its current boundaries, the Bloc would have won. The riding also went Pequiste in 1976 when Louise Cueillerier won, and became the first female speaker of NatAss under Rene Levesque.In 1993,Rejean Boyer of the PQ came close to defeating then Premier Daniel Johnson.
Now that the Montreal Island towns have been lopped off, it's a brand new ball game. while I'll concede that Pincourt is 67% Anglo, and very Fed4ralist, the same cannot be said for Ile Perrot, where I lived at the time, which is 97% French, and quite separatist. Notwithstanding the factr that many of the outlying areas are close to the Ontario border, there is a strong Nationalist element there. Visit the Coteaux, pointe des Cascades, les Cedres, St. Polycarpe, St. Clet and Vaudreuil Dorion sometime. You'll be as shocked as I was.
I cannot vouch for the credentials of Mme. Faille, but I would not rule her out. The one thing that has changed since 1993 & 1997 is that there is no longer a strong Conservative Party element. In 1993, the riding had a PC incumbent, in 1997 the PC did respectably on account of the Charest factor. But since then, they have lost whatever organiation they once had, so Federalist voters may go over to Discepola just to stop the Bloquiste.
03/05/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
I completly disagree with the poster below, this area streches from the Ontario border to the Montreal's westernmost area ( Senneville/Ste.Anne de Bellevue ). This is not a BQ territory at all. Around 25 % of the inhabitants of this riding are Anglophones and in some cities like Pincourt their population is around 40 %. This is as liberal as it gets, don't be misled by the poster below.
21/04/04 Nancy Trent
Email: [hidden]
This riding is not so sure for the Liberals. In 1993, the BQ would have been elected with a majority of 3000 votes if the riding limits where the same as today's. The BQ is well organized with a popular candidate. She's founded many non-profit organizations in the riding and her contributions have been acknowledged by local representatives. She's from the riding and speaks many languages, if I recall...(English, French, Chinese and Spanish). I'm from St-Lazare, but the people from Hudson told me that they saw Ms Faille at church and at local grocery stores in the Hudson area. She was raised on the family farm in Franklin Centre among the anglophone community and the people from there are convinced that she will be elected and will become the next MP in Vaudreuil-Soulanges.
19/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Good grief! The NDP being effective here? Layton may be from Hudson, but it's unlikely that anyone who lives there even realises this, let alone around the riding. Anyone who actually lives (or lived) in the area know the NDp will have absolutly minimal effect on the outcome. This is one of the Montreal area ridings where federalist voters will rally around the Liberals because they are not the BQ. In Quebec there are two parties that have any chance: Libs and the BQ. Having said that, a riding with a sizable anglophone population and a federalist tradition and a good and popular MP means a Liberal win.
08/04/04 NDP Newbie
Email: [hidden]
Jack Layton's hometown of Hudson is in this riding.
Expect that town to show a strong up-swing of NDP support, hurting whoever is strong there, which I believe to be the Liberals.
Hudson alone will quadruple the number of NDP votes in this riding, a pathetic 904 in 2000.
Did I mention that Layton speaks excellent French?
19/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

Another "should be safe" riding for the Liberals. Unless Quebec turns out to be a total disaster for the party, I don't see this seat changing hands.

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