Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:10 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:34 AM 6/27/2004

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Gordon Guyatt
Green Party/Parti Vert:
David Januczkowski
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Russ Powers
David Sweet

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Aldershot (82.9%)
John Bryden
Hamilton West (17.1%)
Hon. Stan Keyes

2000 Result/Résultats:
21,197 42.81%
14,491 29.27%
8,966 18.11%
4,567 9.22%
292 0.59%

(160/196 polls, 63300/74416 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Hamilton West
(55/235 polls, 13047/71333 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Marino
Email: [hidden]
This will be close, but I think that David Sweet's Promisekeeper ties are going to be weighing him down in the sprint to the finish line. An upset victory is well within reach for Gordon Guyatt.
22/06/04 JLM
Email: [hidden]
AS June 28th gets closer, so does the possibility of an NDP victory in ADFW. It will be a very close finish between the NDP and the Conservatives, but I think in the end, the NDP will take this seat. As a world-remowned epidemiologist and medical reseracher at MAC, Gordon Guyatt has deep support within the university community in Westdale and has impressed the professionals in Dundas and Ancaster. Also, as the son of holocaust survivors he has strong beliefs in the importance of minority rights and liberal social policies which is finding resonance with the Jewish community here. In recent days, Sweet's socially conservative views have come to light and many people who might otherwise have voted Conservative are having doubts, finding themselves alienated by his right-wing conservative agenda - especially women. (He still has considerable support, though, in the rural parts of the riding which is what will make this a nail-biter of a race) As for the Liberals they are no longer a factor. Their campaign has pretty much imploded with even Russ Powers expected base in Dundas not coming through with the levels of support that had been anticipated. This is now a fight between the Conservatives and the NDP - which the NDP will win in a surprising and narrow finish.
22/06/04 AL
Email: [hidden]
Anyone who predicts an NDP victory for this seat is terribly mistaken. This is a so called Hamilton riding, yet the people here were forced into Hamilton, against their will, by amalmagation. Russ Powers dominates in Dundas, Gordon Guyatt in Westdale. The other two main towns in the riding are Ancaster and Flamborough. It is here the elite of Hamilton live. Does anyone actually think business men, lawyers, doctors and dientists will vote for an a ramshackle party that would destroy Canadian business, clearly not! The Liberals are already taking a hit in this traditionally conservative seat, and Sweet, despite the ungrounded rumours about the man, will win in Ancaster and Flambourough. My preditcions, Sweet: 42 Guyatt: 20 Powers: 35 Green: 3
21/06/04 Full Name
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Redistribution from Aldershot to Westdale, bringing the riding closer to the campus of McMaster, actually makes this riding more Grit than Tory but from the University to Cootes to Redeemer, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale has united into full force front led by past Reform and Ontario PC candidate Mark Mullins in backing and endorsing the Conservatives with David Sweet because he reminds them more of progressive mix between previous Liberal turned Conservative MP John Bryden and MPP Toni Skarica who admirably resigned his seat over the botched Bill 25 amalgamation of, ironically and especially, Aldershot into a Mega-City unlike Ted McMeekin, the champion of de-amalgamation who is now in trouble with Flamborough. Top issues at the Tim Horton, on campus and around town, by those that actually care, are Same-Sex Marriage, Abortion and C-250 with a hint of Child Pornography in the air this week so it seems the social conservatives are winning their battle without help from the Christian Heritage Party but look to see if the Deamalgamation issue gives some provincial spill-over then federal SSM did provincially in a riding looking for real reform. Russ Powers represents everything people in Hamilton hate about Paul Martin on the West as a fixed, acclaimed appointment who would be the selected, not elected part of a future caucus under him in PM4PM's regime-to-be
21/06/04 Cato
Email: [hidden]
Read Andrew Dreschel's column in the spec today. Both Guyatt and Sweet take major hits. NDP's Guyatt, for resorting to slanderous campaign tactics in spreading rumours of Sweet being a wife beater and the good Dr. further exposed (by Dreschel) for having been charged with child endangerment in leaving his infant child in a hot car. As for Sweet, Deschdel exposes that he has an ex-wife in the background. No big deal ordinarily, but it becomes important for a self-righteous, sanctimonious Bible-thumper like Sweet. The "till death do us part" thing was one promise that this hoilier-than-thou promisekeeper could not keep.
20/06/04 JW
Email: [hidden]
A month ago I wouldn't have dreamed of calling this for the NDP, but something is definately brewing here. Guyatt is a highly credible candidate with tremendous crossover appeal, something the Conservative does not have.
I spoke today to a longtime resident of Dundas who's voting NDP for the first time. She says there's nothing but NDP signs on her street.
Don't be surprised to see this go orange.
20/06/04 lrs
Email: [hidden]
I know the NDp candidate ran a poor third in prov by-election prior to last Ontario election and there were particular local issues that favoured the Liberal win - riding now may be slightly different- I am assuming the ABL vote in urban areas will go NDP enough in this part of Ontario(urban Hamilton) to win by a slight margin- one of three way races we have not seen for yrs in Ontario- I still think it is hoot that well healed voters would vote NDP taking into consideration its economic policies and tax policies- the 23 % increase in capital gains taxes and potential inhertitance tax consequences would be harmful to most of them- but these voters may see this candidate as a spokesman for our wonderful health system- can you see how Guyatt would be quoted by national media in parliament- if Tory wins then we have a result caused by vote split of left-centre left vote
18/06/04 FULL NAME
Email: [hidden]
I live in this riding. It will clearly go conservative. This is a very Upper Class area (Ancaster was reciently voted third richest town in Ontario). The Liberal, Russ Powers, is failing, and falling in the Polls. The NDP candiate, Gordon Guyatt, has no chance. He's seen by many as a neglectful parent who left his kid in the car on a hot day (he was charged by police for this). Furthermore, the NDP has never had traditionally strong support here, and why would they. Unlike Hamilton, this area HAS NOTHING TO GAIN from the NDP, except new taxes! Amalgamation has already shoved an 18% property tax increase down their throats in these areas, and while the NDP does well in Westdale, Ancaster and Flamborough will never go NDP. Furthermore, David Sweet, while religous, is not the fantaic people beileve him to be. The fact that he is religous has been blown out proportion by his desperate opponents. He is doing so well that there are organised teams of people stealing his signs. According to a recient newspaper article, five of his supporters have seen a green van pull up to their houses, and steal their signs. He loses 50 a day! Yet is still winning the sign race. Although the NDP might poll better then the Liberals, this one is surely going Conservative. With the leftist votes of Dundas and Westdale split between two candiates, the Conservatives (always strong here) will sweep the ridng! (The combined PC Alliance/Reform vote would have won every past election except 1993)!
17/06/04 reb
Email: [hidden]
Two weeks ago, I never would have made this prediction, but recent events point this towards one of 4 NDP ridings after June 28. The Liberal campaign of Russ Powers is completely off rail and is sinking. People in Westdale and Dundas seem to be overwhelmingly supporting Guyatt. Sweet will most likely win rural Flamborough, and rural Ancaster and have strength in Ancaster urban and Waterdown, but those Liberal votes there appear lost. It will be close, but I predict Guyatt 37%, Sweet 33%, Powers 24% Green 6%. Westdale and Dundas wins out as people vote Guyatt to stop Sweet because they cnanot trust the Liberals any longer, including the party's treatment of former MP John Bryden.
17/06/04 Justice Jack
Email: [hidden]
When the election was called I predicted this to be a three way race and was ridiculed by many people. However, having spent a great deal of time in this riding, I have to say that my opinion is that Liberal support in the riding has collapsed. This would leave the riding as a race between the NDP and Conservatives, which should be very interesting to watch over the next few weeks.
Although the local campaigns will make a difference, the potential ugliness of the national campaign could make up many minds in this riding. ALthough the Liberal attack ads will likely backfire and simply make them look desperate, they also have the potential to have a serious impact on Sweet's campaign. I do not think that anyone can make a prediction because this one will be decided by how the cards fall on election day.
13/06/04 The Hammer
Email: [hidden]
NDP pickup here. Westdale is a lock and dundas is coming our way. Internal polling numbers put the NDP neck and neck with the conservatives with the liberal campaign falling off the face of the earth. However, the conservative, David Sweet, is a religious male supremist! Way out there even for the anti-gay anti-abortion biggots in steven harper's party. How are the professional woman of ancaster and waterdown going to vote for this fool. The NDP candidate, Gord Guyatt, has a lot of support in the wealthy areas of the riding since he is a specialist in internal medicine at the university hospital and the more urban areas of the riding are cryinig out for an ndp rep. in Ottawa.
12/06/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
As a resident of this riding, I can tell you that David Sweet is going to win. Russ Powers' signs are so anemic. One can get easily fooled driving in Dundas and viewing red "For Sale" signs in the distance. People are not really giving Sweet much scrutiny and that will help him. With Dalton McGuinty's 9% approval ratings, anyone wearing a Liberal badge is getting chased out of the neighbourhood. Gordon Guyatt will be tremendously attractive to Westdale residents. His firm commitment to publi health is once again magnified by his contribution to a prominent study that said public medicare is more affordable than private delivery. With all this Liberal support going to NDP, watch Sweet dominate Ancaster and Flamborough. Powers will do well in Dundas, but it won't be enough to stem the tide. Remember provincial cousin McMeekin's noticeable vote drop between his 2002 by-election and his 2004 victory (from 10,000 to 2,000). And that was during a Liberal sweep! Furthermore, with two weeks left in the campaign and the poll numbers showing a possible Conservative majority, Sweet will have further momentum on his side.
06/06/04 Initials (TAN)
Email: [hidden]
A few weeks ago, I very nearly called this for the Liberals. Sweet's Promise Keepers background and empty-the-churches-based nomination win seemed a recipe for mass Red Tory defections, and there was public disdain to that effect aired in the press by Tory also-ran Steve Deighton. Powers seemed to do a decent enough job of keeping out of the Copps/Valeri mess to assume that this Hamilton riding would at the very least have a united Grit organization. Since then, Deighton mysteriously has turned 180 and is now Sweet's "policy chair" or somesuch, and Powers has gone completely invisible, with only a smattering of lawn signs.
Paul Martin made a brief cameo stop in Westdale last week that was kept completely hushed; the local weekly claimed it was aimed more at invigorating demoralized campaign workers than getting some flesh-pressing time in. That same paper had an interesting comment from Powers that he believed in "sparingly" using lawn signs and that such a strategy had worked for him on City Council. To my eyes it just looks like he's got no friends.
Most of Sweet's signs seem to be on public property (which I've noticed seems to be a recurring criticism levelled on this site towards the Conservatives) although there's still a few more than I'd expect on lawns in Westdale. Guyatt is unsurprisingly the lawn king of Westdale, and while he isn't equalling the sea of neon that Roy Adams mustered in a losing effort last provincial election, it's clear that the universitynik crowd around McMaster has taken to Jack Layton in a big way. That said, people I talk to are worried about Harper and Sweet, and so if it even looked like Powers had a shot we might well see the strategic voting mentioned further down the page. Right now Powers isn't sending that message.
05/06/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
Changed prediction. There are no safe Liberals in the Hamilton area. I was canvassing for Gordon Guyatt today and amazed at the response. Support for the NDP in Dundas and Westdale is much higher than in '99, '00 or '03. Support for Powers was weak. Sweet has some support too, but those people were mostly religious fundies - you can't really convince them different. They have a right to their beliefs, but I shudder to think of the impact if they put one of their own in office. I know that this riding is still a tough slog for the NDP. But notwithstanding my partisanship, I really believe they might have a shot this time. It will be a three-way fight.
03/06/04 KGS
Email: [hidden]
I live in Westdale, and in terms of signs I have seen very few, but most are for Guyatt. As of yet I have received only one flier, and that was from Sweet; I'm not very impressed, as appears to be the case with others: I've seen more of these fliers littering the ground than I have Sweet signs. I just can't see Sweet getting much support from the Westdale area. I'm not familiar with the other areas, so can't say for sure how it will turn out. When it is all said and done, though, I doubt voters in ADFW will be sending Sweet to Ottawa; regardless of what kind of a businessman he is, he just doesn't seem qualified to be an MP. So it looks like Powers, as much as I wish otherwise.
01/06/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
First, a couple of responses. First, yes, David Sweet does have more signs up -- in violation of city bylaws. I don't think this is evidence of a well-orchestrated campaign team but rather evidence of an inexperienced one that doesn't fully know the rules. And besides, everybody knows that signs mean nothing when it really comes down to it.
And no, I don't think it's "reprehensible" to bring up the issue of David Sweet's religious beliefs -- he's the one who raised the issue in the first place as he's quite open with his religion and how it has played a part in his life. Many politicians, in all parties, are open with their religious beliefs and by raising the issue therefore open it up to both challenge and support. I'm not challenging David Sweet on his religious beliefs -- he's certainly entitled to them and I applaud his faith which has led him to do many positive things -- but if he didn't want them to become an issue in the campaign he shouldn't have brought them up in the first place.
That being said, this is definitely a two-way race between Sweet and Powers. NDPer Gordon Guyatt's support is limited to the Westdale area (if we want to talk signs, the NDP certainly hasn't done as well as they did in 2003 provincially in Westdale!) and limited support in Dundas, where Powers' support will be concentrated. With Sweet's support very strong in Flamborough, this leaves Ancaster as the battleground and which will decide who becomes ADFW's MP. Tight horse race between Powers and Sweet.
01/06/04 Justice Jack
Email: [hidden]
Canadians do not have a history of voting for faith based candidates. Therfore, logic would suggest that that may scare away some red tories from the conservatives and force them to either vote for the Liberals or sit out the election. In the future do not jump on someone for stating something that may be an issue in the election. It has been the liberal strategy to protray conservatives as social conservatives. That strategy worked well in the past and would have a good chance to work on David Sweet. If Bryden won the nomination that would not be the case.
29/05/04 reb
Email: [hidden]
It seems that the Sweet campaign team is spending all of their time placing signs on public property and writing submissions to this site. Considering that their campaign office was open at least a few weeks before the writ was dropped - they could have lined up several hundred sign locations - yet apparently did not. This will be an interesting race - maybe even a three way race - or four if Bryden at the last minute changes his mind and enters the race. Anyway, I do not see the Westdale and Dundas portion of the riding as big supporters for Sweet - so he is a long way from a lock. and BTW - where is Russ Powers?
29/05/04 full
Email: archbishopalex2000
ADFW will go to Sweet. I live in Ancaster, and have yet to see one Russ Power sign, while the number of Sweet signs are beginning to swell. The NDP have more signs then powers! Furthermore, I hear from Sweet himself (who was here dropping off a sign incidentally) that has over 120 volunteers amassed. For a week in, that is a very large number.....This seat will return to its natural Conservative roots.
28/05/04 Full Name
Email: [hidden]
The last N.D.P. posting by Justice Jack will surely become more fabled than the tales by Grimm. Even if with the addition of McMaster and Westdale there is no credible argument to support a possible NDP win in this riding. This is only a two horse race and the red horse is currently MIA. To stoop to the argument that David Sweet's "religious background" will portray him as an extremist is beyond reprehensible. Mr. Sweet is a Presbyterian for goodness sake, he's not a from the planet Zardos; and I dare say he has never once forgotten about his kids.
25/05/04 Mike M.
Email: principled.conservative@sympatico.ca
Judging by the number of signs put up by Mr. Sweet's campaign and the total lack of Russ Powers signs (i don't even know what one looks like yet). It appears that Mr. Sweet has an very well orchestrated and strong campaign team. And with that being said and the history of this riding, it doesn't look very likely that this riding will go any other way but Blue.
25/05/04 Justice Jack
Email: [hidden]
When looking at this riding the most obvious choice seems to be David Sweet. He managed to win the conservative nomination based on organization and the combined conservative vote would have won the previous federal election. However, I do think that his religious background will play right into the negative ads that the Liberals will use to portray the conservatives as extremists. As for Russ Powers, he was a strong city councilor in Dundas, but is relatively unknown outside the riding. Even in Dundas there is some anger over the cancelled construction of a local school. The addition of Westdale to the riding only helps the campaign of Dr. Gordon Guyatt. I think this riding comes down to a few factors. If Canadians form the opinion that the conservatives are too extreme, than Sweet’s once almost guaranteed victory goes into doubt. Powers has an uphill battle against the anti-Liberal sentiment. If these two factors come into play, I think the two frontrunners may be in trouble and it could turn into a three way race. I think of all the Hamilton ridings, the actual campaigns of these three ridings hinge most on the public perception of the central campaigns. My prediction is that I cannot yet make a prediction.
23/05/04 fulll
Email: [hidden]
Mr. sweet is a very admirable candiate, with the entire conbined right working behind him. Mr. Powers is running with a camp of Liberal who had their former leader, John Bryden leave them, and are rather demoralised. Talk that Martin turfed Bryden, like he did Copps, does not help Liberal chances in this seat. This affulent Riding will go Conservative!!
23/05/04 To The Max
Hello westdaler, I just wanted to clarify which polls I'm talking about. These are the polls located south of Main St. W. across from the McMaster U. area as well as it's counterpart areas to the east and west. Checking the Elections Canada website will show that this is well within the riding.
As far as the NDP is concerned, I don't think that strategic voting will be as big a factor as some might suggest. The Liberals are currently having a hard time convincing progressives that they are in fact the lesser of two evils, on top of which, if enough of these people believe that a combined Dundas/Westdale vote will put them over, they'd be willing to give it a chance.
23/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Funny thing is, Westdale proper has always tended to be the *weakest* Liberal part of whatever Hamilton riding it's belonged to--and you know why? It's a classic yuppie-creative-class college neighbourhood where the traditional teeter-totter's been between NDP and Red Tories, with Coppsian Steeltown Grit machines left looking a little uncouth. Of course, don't expect those Westdale Red Tories to automatically gravitate to CPC, let alone to David Sweet--in light of Layton, Christopherson, Horwath etc, we're probably looking instead at, I don't know, a 20%+ NDP vote in ADFW (and don't laugh). That's aside from Russ Powers' own personal popularity, of course. But hoo boy, what a "here we go again" Alliance/Conservative move to nominate Mr. Promise Keeper; and remember that next door in similarly "winnable" Burlington, the Alliance nominated the former Family Coalition Party leader in '00. If *anyone* could have held those Dundas/Westdale Red Tories, it was a nutty-professor type like John Bryden. Going by previous electoral record, Sweet's still winnable, if only out of the concerted urge to throw them Liberal bums out--but it may take a 3-way split to ensure that's the case. This may sound weird, but I wouldn't be surprised if West Flamduncaster winds up being the *only* surviving Liberal seat in Greater Hamilton...
08/05/04 westdaler
Email: [hidden]
To the Max. Thanks for the response to my post (which somehow my name wasn't attached to.) You say that 'polls butting up to the escarpment' tend to go Conservative, which may be the case. But the Hamilton polls abutting the escarpment are not going to be part of the Ancaster-etc riding. Only Westdale (i.e., from the 403 west) has been added.
Yes, Westdale is more NDP than Liberal. But my point--and I think it remains valid--is that there are more Liberal voters being added to the new riding in Westdale than are being lost with Aldershot, and more Conservative voters being lost than gained.
Another unknown that is important is how NDP-voters in Westdale react to being in a new riding where their preferred party has no chance. How many of them will vote strategically against the Conservatives?
These things together, I think, add up to a Liberal victory by a nose. But a lot will depend on how the national campaign goes, and if the Conservatives manage to take thirty seats in Ontario, this could be one of them. If they take only a dozen, my guess is that this won't be one of them.
05/05/04 To The Max
Despite what the last poster has stated, Westdale actually doesn't go Liberal! Polling data from the last 4 general elections (provincial/federal) indicate that the NDP does well around the McMaster University area with the Conservatives taking polls butting up against the escarpment.
Outside of Hamilton, I'll point out that the 2003 results are skewed since amalgamation was a factor. Ancaster still holds it's traditional conservativism (especially anglo social-conservatives) and will be the winning factor for the tories since it holds more polls than either Famborough or Dundas. Flamborough will be split between the Conservatives and Liberals due to a Ted McMeekin influence imho. This leaves Dundas which I say will be the NDP's best area, but will also see a few Liberal polls.
Email: [hidden]
My prediction is that this riding will stay liberal. 1. Yes, if all the PC voters last time had voted CA (or vice versa) a conservative party would have taken the seat. But some of the old PCs are going to vote Liberal and some will stay home. The new conservatives will get a larger share, but not all of them. 2. Add into the mix the effect of redistribution: my neighborhood Westdale is added (mostly NDP and Liberal), while Aldershot (mostly CA and PC last time) is subtracted. 3. The Liberals have a stronger candidate than last time. For me this adds up to a Liberal hold. (Note: this is what I think will happen, not necessarily what I want to happen.)
27/04/04 GM
Email: [hidden]
I don't think Bryden would run. Despite his jumping from one party to another, I think he knew the consequences and I think that he's prepared to sit this one out.
Seriously, I hope that the Conservative party puts him to work somewhere, as he is a decent guy and still could have a career in politics. (a minority government might mean that there could be another election pretty quickly and next time he could win the nomination)
19/04/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
This post is meant as a question, not to start a rumour. But I was wondering, does anybody think that Bryden - having been spurned by both the Liberals and the Tories - would consider running as an independent in this riding? Frankly I don't think he'd make much impact if he did; although he was often an outspoken MP I think he was also seen as a fairly "eccentric" one and I am not sure if he carries a lot of personal popularity in the area, outside of whichever party he happens to be with at a given time. But on the other hand, he wouldn't have anything to lose by running (other than his dignity if he performed really poorly). And if voters got really mad at Paul Martin and decided to punish the Liberals, and still found the Conservative's local candidate unpalatable, Bryden could do a lot better as an independent than my initial intuition would suggest? Just to be clear I am not promoting this - I am an NDP supporter and frankly I care little more for Bryden than I do for either of the other two parties' candidates. But I was wondering if it was possible.
19/04/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
I apologize for apparently violating your link policy on this site - I was not aware of it. However, I would encourage visitors to this site to check out the National Organization of Women web site, or just do a simple google search, for more information on the Promise Keepers organization.
Buhay's attempt to label Patricia Ireland as "hate-filled" and her organization as "wacko" just demonstrates that Conservative supporters are nervous about their chosen candidate's ties. The Promise Keepers is an American-based organization, and is closely tied to anti-abortion, "family values" religious right organizations in that country (including Jerry Falwell, Bill Bright of the Campus Crusade for Christ, and James Dobson of Focus on the Family). Women are not allowed to join the organization (segregating them into a separate "Chosen Women" auxiliary group). The overarching message is that men should be the boss in the family, and women should "submit" to them. The group's American founders have frequently been quoted as saying outrageously racist, sexist, homophobic statements. I am sorry to break it to you, Buhane, but here in Canada, particularly in urban and suburban ridings, it is precisely these sort of radical right-wingers who are on the "fringe."
Dundas, Westdale, and to a lesser extent Ancaster are urbane communities populated by a lot of intellectual, artistic and professional-type people. There is a not-insubstantial gay population in Dundas. The Promise Keepers' agenda is totally unpalatable to these communities and they will vote en masse against anyone who is tied to such an organization. The Conservatives made a big mistake in choosing David Sweet as their candiddate, and they will pay for it at the polls. Plus, did I mention that Russ Powers was enormously popular in Dundas?
I predict that outside of Flamborough, the Conservatives will finish in third place behind the NDP. The rural parts of this riding may have enough latent social conservative support to help Sweet get his deposit back, but that's the best the Conservatives can hope for.
19/04/04 GM
Email: [hidden]
This riding has its historical Conservative roots, and even before the time of Bryden we can remember Geoff Scott, the Tory who won 5 elections in a row when the riding was known as Hamilton-Wentworth.
Even under a fiscally conservative guy such as Bryden, the Alliance-Reform and PC Candidates scored more votes and this election will finally be the one that restores a Tory to the House of Commons. David Sweet is a popular businessman, sold a lot of memberships, and would be a good MP for this area.
The most important fact about this riding is its boundaries: it includes Ancaster, Dundas, the Westdale neighbourhood around McMaster University, and rural and suburban areas stretching west and north. With that kind of voter demographic, this is a prime Conservative voting gain on election day.
14/04/04 Buhay
Email: mojosan@yahoo.com
The Conservatives should win here. If the slander on this site is any proof, then the Libs and NDPers don't have much to run on.
BTW, I don't understand how anyone can get away creating a link to a hate-filled article by Patricia Ireland. Tolerance is a two way street and PK doesn't advocate the nonsense that it is accused of (NOW, Ireland's former organisation on the other hand has it's share of wackos).
This is a political predictions site. It is not one where you should be able to slander anyone simply because they don't agree with your fringe politics.
Editor Note The link has since been removed. Our policy is to only provide links to CANDADATE SITES for a small fee. We apologize for the oversight.
10/04/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
The Conservatives had their chance to win ADFW by nominating one of several strong candidates -- and blew it. Although David Sweet may do well in Flamborough, those "conservative" voters in Dundas and Ancaster (who are fiscal but not social conservatives) will be frightened off by the social views of the Conservative candidate and vote for Russ Powers, whose fiscal-conservatism/social-liberalism proves a good fit for this area. Although I don't have any "party contacts" in the Conservative Party, I live here and that's the feeling I get from many in the Ancaster/Dundas area.
04/04/04 Evan Dandy
Email: [hidden]
It's amazing how creepy, fundamentalist whackos can get elected as Liberals, isn't it?! Tom Wappel, Dan McTeague, Roger Galloway, David Kilgour - c'mon down!
My party sources tell me that this riding is high up on the list of ridings that the Conservatives expect to win in Ontario. David Sweet has a strong team, and will power through to victory.
30/03/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
John Bryden has lost the ADFW Conservative nomination to David Sweet, President and CEO of the creepy, sexist, religious fundamentalist 'Promise Keepers' organization. This may play well in Flamborough, but it's going to bring back memories of Stockwell Day in the rest of the riding, and push urban, socially liberal former PC party voters away.
30/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Bryden lost the nomination. Surly this riding will go Liberal now. Red tories here have been dissapointed, they will not vote for the CPC's candidate
28/03/04 Mike M.
Email: principled.conservative@sympatico.ca
This is one riding that will definitely see the effect of vote splitting over the last 10 years. Even during the big red tide of 1993 had there not been a vote split the Conservatives would have won this riding again.
Russ Powers really isn't all that popular outside of Dundas, and neither are the liberals really, all things considered. With the socially conservative elements in the rural areas of the riding and the fiscally conservative element in Ancaster and some parts of Westdale, this will be an easy Conservative win.
25/03/04 V.D.
Email: Bench_breaker@hotmail.com
Too close. I would have had this as a possible tory gain before the bryden defection, hard to tell now (would need to hear how angry constituents are over it). Still Depends on the candidates and later the campaign (if conservatives do reasonably well in ontario, they could gain this seat).
24/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
vote splitting country. The Liberals are on the way down, the NDP will suck votes here and the CPC will win
24/03/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
Russ Powers won his city council seat with over 70% of the vote last fall. This may have been a vote-splitting riding in the last federal election, but in the last Provincial election ADFA went solidly Liberal behind anti-amalgamation candidate Ted McMeekin, who beat the "united right" Tory by over 10%. Although amalgamation was strictly a provincial issue, Powers, the "pride of Dundas," appeals to the same sense of localism that fuelled McMeekin's success. Further, redistribution has been kind to the Liberals in this riding, severing Tory Aldershot and adding the left-leaning Westdale neighborhoods around McMaster University. Admittedly, a strong NDP candidate could split those votes with the Liberals. (In the last election the McMaster TAs union organizer and ex-president Catherine Hudson represented the NDP in Hamilton West, which then included Westdale). The NDP has not nominated a candidate yet this time. But for now I think this riding is a stronger hold f! or the Liberals than Hamilton Mountain, and certainly stronger than Centre or East-Stoney Creek.
20/03/04 BMS
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I think Bryden's diffection from the Liberal Party actually might have to do with the prospects that he would probably lose his seat this election. This was a vote-splitting riding, and by a wide margin. The combined CA/PC vote in 2000 would have equalled 24,723 votes. Bryden got 19,921 for a difference of over 4,800 votes. With those numbers, I would say this is a CPC gain.
20/03/04 RD
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The Liberals are likely to run extraordinarily popular Dundas city councillor Russ Powers in this riding, in place of flaky John Bryden. Bryden fled to the Tories in the face of a surefire nomination defeat. In turn, he now faces a six-way race in the Conservative Party. It doesn't matter whether he or another gets the Tory nod, though, because Powers will trounce them in any case.
19/03/04 MP
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The jury is still out on Bryden. His defection did not go over as planned. He has slowly eroded his reputation of a strong-talking politician to attention-grabbing opportunist over the past few years. Additionally, Westdale won't vote Conservative. Heck, Bryden doesn't even have the Conservative nomination locked up yet. If Westdale NDP types steal enough votes from the Liberals he has a chance, but I doubt it. The Liberals will win back this seat, though, with Bryden as a candidate, the Conservatives will do much better.
18/03/04 RWA
I would have called this one Tory before Bryden's defection. If he becomes the candidate, he should win easily. If not, it will be tougher but the conservative vote from 2000 was still almost 10% above the Liberals, who are not running an incumbant.

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