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Brampton West
Brampton-Ouest
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale
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Update/Mise à jour: 5:25 PM 6/25/2004 
Prediction Changed La prévision a changé 4:00 PM 6/27/2004 |
Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription
Candidates/candidats:
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(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral: Colleen Beaumier | ||||||
| Independent: Tom Bose | |||||||
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Conservatives/Conservateurs: Tony Clement | ||||||
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Green Party/Parti Vert: Sanjeev Goel | ||||||
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N.D.P./N.P.D.: Chris Moise | ||||||
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Incumbents/Les députés: | |||||||
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Brampton Centre (27.2%) Sarkis Assadourian | ||||||
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Brampton West-Mississauga (72.8%) Colleen Beaumier | ||||||
2000 Result/Résultats:
| Redistributed | ||
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17,301 | 56.14% |
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6,317 | 20.50% |
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5,546 | 18.00% |
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1,248 | 4.05% |
| 405 | 1.31% | |
Brampton Centre (47/180 polls, 17411/72139 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 3874 | |
| 1530 | |
| 427 | |
| 2893 | |
| 138 | ||
Brampton West-Mississauga (107/196 polls, 46545/98497 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 13427 | |
| 4016 | |
| 821 | |
| 3424 | |
| 267 | ||
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21/06/04 | Jonathan Email: [hidden] | |
| Forget the "tight race", Tony's going to win by a landslide! Why the heck is the riding still even rated "too close to tell"? If you drive around the riding and just get a feel of the signs on private property, its obvious Tony is going to win. Aside from a few small polls of Beaumier supporters, there just isn't anywhere in the riding that Tony won't show a great base of support. And he works for it too!!! | |||
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21/06/04 | Full Name Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca | |
| Tony Clement, a Fiscal Blue Tory, Social Red Tory, will be the caucus leader in charge of leading Ontario back to power through the newly-made Conservative Party of Canada with a quasi-neo-conservative Common Sense Revolution-like plan. This group, already called the BradGate Committee, has already planned a friendly takeover of the CPC by calling for a move towards centrist, moderate all-inclusive policy at their convention-to-be in Thanksgiving, the selection of Ontario Tories, Atlantic Tories and Alberta Tories for their executive council and eventually, especially sped up with a minority, call for a leadership review of Stephen Harper with replacements in Harris, Long/Flaherty/Klees and, if all else fails, pick the guy that has planned all of this - Two Tiered TonyC-P3 himself. This would be all getting ahead of one's self if they didn't win their own riding so let's try and look past the past and view Brampton West as a riding wishing to embrace Bill Davis, apologize to Clement for the provincial election with a welcome back without Mississauga, where all of the Liberals anti-American/free-trade/war caucus reside including Colleen Beaumier, due to redistribution. | |||
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21/06/04 | George Email: [hidden] | |
| I believe that Tony Clement will win a tight race in Brampton West. His rejection at the Provincial Level was a mass turnout to vote any and all Conservatives out. He is a proven leader here in Brampton and after watching the local debate on Rodgers TV he was head and shoulders above the rest. Ms. Beaumier's comment "there is no scandal" will come back to haunt her. People want change, and Ms. Beaumier has given Brampton little in her terms in Ottawa. I have been checking signs where I drive in this riding and it is Conservation nearly 2 - 1. People are tired of Liberal scandal, waste, mismanagement and Stephen Harper won the english debate. I wish there was an all candidates meeting in this riding, but none appears on the horizion. Tony if elected has a chance at at Cabinet Position, while Ms. Beaumier has spent her time on the back bench. Again I call a Conservative win, but by a whisker. It will all depend on who can get the vote out best that will win. | |||
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16/06/04 | initial Email: [hidden] | |
| Tony Clement's reaction at the door in this riding is so good that he has to have a team of volunteers scout ahead for houses where it is safe for him to knock without being spat on. Clement will be surprisingly close given his recent turfing in the provinical election, but the visceral hatred of him by so many people will spell the end. The question will be whether his political career is over after losing two elections in the span of 8 months. | |||
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15/06/04 | Andrew L Email: [hidden] | |
| This riding is going to Clement for sure. During the provincial election, he only lost by a handfull of votes. Considering that the provincial Liberals have went down by 14% since then due to their very unpopular budget, this riding will go to the Conservatives. Another reason is that Tony has tons of people helping him campaign, while Colleen does not. This will certainly help him win. | |||
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15/06/04 | aaron Email: [hidden] | |
| Looks like the tory partisans have all weighed in here. The sign war is pretty much a draw at this point, with Tony doing well in the traditional tory stretch up main street and the Beaumier with the edge on the west side. I guess the guy who thought Beaumier was "nowhere to be seen" doesn't get out much. This one is going down to the wire, I suspect Beaumier squeaks it out. | |||
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12/06/04 | Stevo Email: | |
| We've got quite a race here. Unlike his fellow leadership contender Belinda Stronach, who is poised for a landslide victory in her riding of Newmarket-Aurora, Tony Clement is in a very tough fight here in a riding that is far less traditionally Tory than Belinda's. Right now, even with Liberal numbers plummeting in Ontario, I'm giving the nod to Beaumier based on the huge strength of her victory last time and also the fact that Clement was booted out by these very same voters in the provincial election 8 months ago. However, I reserve the right to change my prediction on this one; if Harper is the clear winner of the debate and the social conservative wing of the party doesn't raise any more hot-button issues, the 905 ridings may start to fall to the Conservatives like dominoes. | |||
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10/06/04 | Dave M. Email: dmolenh2@uwo.ca | |
| As a hydro worker in the construction/maintenance department for West Brampton I can offer some insight as a political junkie/grassroots information gatherer. Clement doesn't stand a chance. Typical tory support is in the Peel Village area of the city with the odd right-winger here and there. Everyone knows Mr. Clement all-to-well. He has name recognition, he ran for conservative party leader, etc...but let's look at the riding and the people who live there. I always spark up a conversation with whomever's house i am working on and generally walk away with a perspective of who the customer will vote for. I will be supporting Chris Moise who deserves to win this riding, but I can see where the majority of strategic voters, uniformed citizens, and political junkies will be throwing their votes. There's no question Beaumier will take this riding. Clement was on CPAC not too long ago where when canvassing he was told by a voter "Tony...I'm a teacher...come on..." Everyone knows Tony and he has name recognition...as the man who ruined health care in this province and the guy who lost the conservative leadership race. The problem with the Tory supporters is that they only see how much money Tony has brought to the campaign. You have to realize that no amount of money will ever polish his name. Chris Moise deserves this riding. Tony thinks he'll win this riding. But, Beaumier will hold this riding. | |||
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09/06/04 | Email: vf135@hotmail.com | |
| This one is all but finished. Clement is receiving a good reaction at the door, the signs are going up all over the place, Beaumier is nowhere to be seen. Clement is getting all kinds of support from his party, whereas Beaumier isn't getting any, being a Chretienite. The voters of Brampton West are feeling a little buyer's remorse, having chosen Beaumier's assistant over Clement in the provincial election; they'll undo their error this time around. As for Dan's point about the multiple calls, no doubt it's irritating, but that's more a sign of having great volunteer turnout than disorganization. Beaumier would dearly love to be able to make that many calls. | |||
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07/06/04 | Dan Email: [hidden] | |
| Although I won't be voting for her, I think Colleen Beaumier will walk away with this riding, mostly due to voter apathy. Most people I talk to are very angry with Clement over his Harris days, and equally angry with the provincial Liberals over broken campaign promises. Tony Clement's phone campaign is mis-managed, his workers have called my house, my sister's and my mother's twice or more in the last two weeks. It's irritating and doesn't do him any good. I would predict possibly the lowest voter turnout in the country in this riding. | |||
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06/06/04 | C. Hubley Email: [hidden] | |
| Clement will win, mostly for the reasons B. N. outlines below. I also agree with almost all the detrimental things said about Clement, but, on SARS, you are basically comparing his performance with Anne McLellan and Mel Lastman, who both embarassed and endangered the country with ignorance on global display. Clement (but more so Toronto Medical Board of Health's Sheela Basrur) looked like competent pros, but part of this was by comparison to the horrific Liberal "biohazardous performance art" for CNN and the WHO, trying to spin the crisis instead of fixing it. A lot of people are grateful to Clement simply for not being an obvious criminal idiot. He is certainly a hard campaigner, and a moderate by comparison to other Conservatives. If he doesn't win this seat, he'll almost certainly run for the head of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party, so there are some reasons to want Tony to win federally, if they really want the ON PCs to just go away and die. ;-) | |||
| 02/06/04 | Bear and Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com | ||
| The last few postings seem to be people who rather dislike Clement (fair enough, we needn't like or dislike any one candidate). One pointed out that he was ousted by angry residents. That is very true, they were angry at the Harris government for a great many of good reasons. The thing that needs to be pointed out is that residents are angry again, this time at the federal Liberals. This anger could easily sweep Beaumier out and Clement back in. We're just not sure if that'll happen yet. Watch where the 905 is going, if it looks like a Tory break-through then Clement is back in. If not Beaumier is safe. | |||
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01/06/04 | Victor A. Email: | |
| Well, well, well, who did the Alliance-Conservative Party nominate here??? Oh, it turns out that this is the one and only Tony Clement, or WADR to him should I say the Tony AKA the perennial l****r, let’s sum up what did Tony Clement lose in the last 3 years, A :) The PC Party of Ontario Leadership Convention B :) The provincial riding of Brampton-West Mississauga in the 2003 election. C :) The leadership of the so called NEW Conservative Party of Canada with only 9 % of the vote, way behind that lady that is/was often described as pretty lightweight. I think the facts speak for themselves and there is no need to comment. What does Tony do these days, he wanders around the n’hood pretending that he can be it all anytime and to everyone. His carefully orchestrated speeches at the Punjabi Women’s Association festivities are way beyond belief… when it comes to their cheesiness. | |||
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28/05/04 | DL Email: [hidden] | |
| Of all the Conservative opportunists looking to sneak back into a job, Clement takes the cake as least appealing. His dismal showing in the laughable Conservative leadership race, and recent ouster by these same angry residents, should keep the incumbent in. If Clement had not been so closely aligned with the Harrisites, he may have had a chance here, but I believe his political career will continue to be finished. In this case it is the name recognition which may actually hurt the Reform/Alliance/Conservative candidate. | |||
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26/05/04 | The Lobbyist Email: [hidden] | |
| Two sets of coat-tails are required for Tony to win: First, Harper and the CPC have GOT to have legs in Ontario to make this a race. You can take Belinda to the bank in Newmarket-Aurora, as much of her leadership team is on the ground helping her, but a significant percentage of formerly senior Clementines are candidates themselves in this election. No doubt that Tony has charisma and intelligence, but I don't place this among my list of ridings that are winnable via the power of a popular and prominent candidate alone. If the recent Ontario provincial election proved anything, it's that this IS something of a bell-weather riding. Second, as pointed out by J Poole, Tony should thank God for Dalton McGuinty every night before bed. Although the jury is still out on the effect that the recent Ontario budget will eventually have upon the federal race, it's given CPC candidates and volunteers in certain ridings (including this one) nothing but confidence. Tony was the very last member of the Harris regime to be voted out in Ontario... if things stay as they currently are, I guarantee that he'll be amongst the last of the Ontario CPC candidates voted in on the 28th. | |||
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25/05/04 | B. N. Email: [hidden] | |
| Clement will win Brampton West. Whatever one has to say about the previous provincial PC government Clement served in, he was well known as perhaps the most capable and popular minister in the Eves cabinet. He received accolades from even political opponents for his handling of SARS, and his defeat was one of the biggest surprises of the October 2 election. Vic Dhillon's victory was quite marginal and is better explained as a symptom of a province-wide rejection of the Tories than as a symbol of Clement's rejection by the Brampton electorate. Furthermore, I have been involved in the Ontario political scene for quite a few years, and Mr. Clement is perhaps the hardest campaigner I have ever seen. Sometimes as a government member there is a tendency to get caught up with the business of running a ministry at Queen's Park, thereby losing touch with the people who elected you in the first place; yet, this was never a concern for Mr. Clement - he ran his ministry admirably, and spent virtually the entire balance of his time time knocking on doors and talking to constituents. There is also the matter of the leadership contest, which, despite his unsuccessful bid, served to give Mr. Clement a significant degree of national coverage, helping to solidfy his image as a star candidate for the CP in Ontario. People know that if the conservatives ever managed to pull off a win (minority or otherwise) Mr. Clement would be a top pick for the country's most senior cabinet posts (probably the fitting Health portfolio). On top of all this, there is Dalton's now infamous budget. In some ridings I imagine the impact of this issue might not be as strong (ridings where the liberals perenially win anyway, or places with star Liberal candidates or despised ONT-PC candidates), but I believe that the liberal victory on Oct. 2 of last year here represented more a rejection of the perceived problems with Eves' government than a wholesale endorsement of McGuinty. The traditionally conservative voters of Brampton West-Mississauga cautiously gave McGuinty a chance, and have now been rewarded with new taxes and deficits that will haunt voters in this predominantly middle class 905 riding all the way to the ballot box. Expect the effect of the budget matter to be particularly pronounced here. Another issue is that of redistribution - the exclusion of the northern end of Mississauga should only serve to benefit Tony. All things considered, I expect that Tony Clement will soon be the new MP for Brampton West. | |||
| 24/05/04 | james Email: | ||
| Too close to call. Before the provincial election, I would have gone with Beaumier. A toss up now... However, as Clement said rather astutely in his leadership bid, if this election is about the Tories, they loose. Although this may be less true nationally than it was when he said it, it is certainly true here. You would be hard pressed to find 1,000 citizens in Brampton-West who agreed with either of Clement's significant moves in government: 1) The sale of the 407, as it was done and 2) The agreement for the 3P hospital (what is known of it). If the Beaumier campaign can get these issues out to voters (does anyone know if Clement's campaign has received any donations from the 3P group or the 407 group?), it will be hard to get people very excited about sending Tony to Ottawa. A "stronger voice" is great, but it also matters what that voice is saying. | |||
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23/05/04 | J Poole Email: | |
| Clement lost this riding because the swing voters were mad at the Tories and thought that Dalton McGuilty was going to solve all their problems. I was going to predict a Liberal win in this riding, but it was late and I went to bed instead. When I woke up, we had a new provincial budget, and a new frontrunner in many Ontario ridings. Prediction, CPC pickup. | |||
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23/05/04 | Lord Peel Email: [hidden] | |
| Tony Clement will probably lose his second election (not counting the Conservative leadership race) inside of a year. There will be anger over the provincial liberal budget here but not enough to overcome Clement's liabilities as a member of the much hated tory government voters have so recently tossed out. | |||
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18/05/04 | Mike Email: ladida@hotmail.com | |
| Unlike the previous "mike", I believe that Clement has an excellent chance of winning this seat. To say that because he lost to Vic Dhillon in the last provinical election, and for this he won't be able to win this time around, is completely false. First thing, Clement barely lost to Dhillon coming within merely 2.4 percentage points. As well, with the new Provincial Budget, it would be an understatement to say that most Ontarians are diaspointed with the Liberals and view them as promise breaking tax increasers. Come in, Tony Clement. He now has a national profile, and all voters know that he would provide a stronger voice for the riding in the house than the backbencher Beaumier. As well, he has tons of credability and came out of the last provincial election virtually unscarred. He has held numerous ministry positions, and to the average voter, he is quite appealing. I am not saying Election Prediction Project should place this under the Conservative column just yet, but by no means should anyone believe that this is a for sure a Liberal pickup. | |||
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17/05/04 | GM Email: [hidden] | |
| Even though he stunk it up in the Conservative Leadership race, Tony Clement still carries an enormous amount of support in the people here. In losing his provincial seat, he still garnered over 42% of the vote. Add to that the disgust with McGuinty so far (don'tcha like that by-election?) and I'll bet that there are some Liberal votes that will go to the NDP. That being said, Clement is a great candidate to bring together former Reformers and PCs. He should easily hold any existing support and possibly be able to increase his numbers should the Liberals continue shooting themselves in the foot. | |||
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15/05/04 | mike Email: | |
| I did omit something from my previous post, which ought to be added. Clement's "appeal" has been touted primarily in the context of his handling of the SARS crisis. However, that "handling" consisted mostly of a visit to the WHO where he was chastised for putting tourism concerns ahead of public safety, and his constant reassurances that the problem was uder control when it was not. The latter served to put front line health care workers in grave danger, and earned him a lawsuit from them for it. | |||
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13/05/04 | mike Email: [hidden] | |
| Tony Clement has led a charmed existence to this point... but hard to think it is going to continue. Amazingly, his Cabinet stops (Environment, until 3 months before Walkerton, Transport to oversee the 407 disaster, and Health to bring us the P3 model) have all been disastrous, but he has deflty moved from branch to branch without any of it sticking to him. He even joined a law firm that worked for the P3 group, shortly after having negotiated, allegedly on behalf of the province, the P3 group's contract for the Hospital. Conflict of interest anyone? At least it doesn't pass the smell test. What his fans often overlook is that Tony is as big of a liability as an asset. He is loved by some, by also reviled by more than a few. The NDP support falls in with Beaumier (like it did with Vic Dhillon), and she wins with a comfortable margin. | |||
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10/05/04 | Q Email: | |
| Tony Clement lost this riding provincially in part due to the uproar around Brampton's still not constructed P3 hospital. If anything, the furor has gotten worse and even though it's a provincial issue Clement is a lightening rod for it and a lot of voters have not forgiven him. It'll be close but when the votes are counted Clement will have a fourth defeat to add to his existing hat trick (Ontario tory leadership, 2003 Ontario election and 2004 federal). | |||
| 02/05/04 | A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com | ||
| Even though Milhouse was buried at a provincial-electoral Makeout Creek in '03, within these boundaries (which leave out not just Mississauga, but the heavy-Asian/Liberal S fringe of Brampton) he'd have won--but how that'll translate federally, especially against an incumbent, is yet unclear. Even if this is Bill Davis heartland, and Davis (so far) has been on-side re uniting the right. But it's more due to good will t/w Clement himself that this is the Brampton/Mississauga seat where the Tories are best set to *out*perform the mean--maybe even beating Mississauga South, which *really* ought to be first past the Bramp-Miss Tory post, to the punch. Though it'd look awfully silly if the only elected GTA Tories are a "mating pair" of former leadership contenders... | |||
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28/04/04 | PFR Email: [hidden] | |
| With the tide moving in way of the Conservative party expect Tony Clement to win this new riding. He lost in 2003 not because the voters were angry with him but because they were angry with the Provincial Tories. Now its the Federal Liberals that the voters are angry with. All this works in Clement who would make a great federal Health Minister. | |||
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22/04/04 | Grant Email: grantramcgill@yahoo.ca | |
| I'd have to give this one to Tony for a couple of reasons. He does have some standing in the area, thanks to his provincial experience and from his recent leadership run. Colleen won't be facing a no-name in that regard. With Ipsos-Reid now putting the Tories at 32% in Ontario (and rising) and the Grits at 41% (and falling), the possibility for gaining seats, outside of the ones were the Alliance/PC vote was 55-60% last time around, is increasing. A seat like Brampton-West could be poached from the Liberals. The provincial Liberals did take all of the seats in Brampton & Mississauga in 2003, true, but the margins of victory were between 4-8%. And a strong performance (locally/nationally) or a strong candidate on the Tory side might bring about such a swing. Add to this the fact that riding has lopped off a more-Liberal friendly Mississauga portion and added a bit more conservative chunk of Brampton, and I don't think Colleen will hold on. I don't think they'll be calling him 'Landslide Tony' come election night, though. | |||
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19/04/04 | Not Non-Partisan Email: [hidden] | |
| Awww come on! How does anyone assume that a face in the crowd like Colleen is going to beat Tony Clement here? If people are prepared to give an edge to Jack Layton over Mills in T.O. Danforth on the basis of exposure, then surely Tony should get the same consideration, especially in a trend sensitive riding like this. Tony's the favorite-son. | |||
| 18/04/04 | KPC Email: [hidden] | ||
| Any seat the Conservatives dont' win provincially in 2003, will be difficult for them to win federally. If the Conservatives win 60 seats in Ontario then this seat and Clement's are very much in play. But if the poll numbers remain the same - we are going to see a federal caucus compromised of essentially provincial seats and maybe five or so others. But the Conservative caucus unless numbers change will be a caucus of rural eastern Ontario, Simcoe County North, Muskoka region and rural south west. The only GTA seats that are potentially winable for the Conservatives are Oakville and Markham-Oakridges. | |||
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09/04/04 | COB Email: [hidden] | |
Tony Clement would be a wonderfull asset to the House of Commons. He has a unique and genuine interest in public policy and is motivated by his ideologoy more so than ambition. But he is running in the wrong area. Toronto, Brampton and Mississauga will go all Liberal except possibly three or four NDP seats. The Tories will win in Eastern Ontario, Simcoe County, mid North, Halton, Wellington and Oxford area but not here. My prediction - Lib - 55 %, Conservatives 30 %, NDP 15 %. | |||
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28/03/04 | JT Email: | |
| Pre-sponsorship scandal I would have said Tony Clement would have had a diffcult time winning this seat. But with the Conservatives rising in the polls and Clement having a national profile in spite of his poor showing in the leadership contest. I say that he will win by a small but comfortable margin. | |||
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23/03/04 | M Cluett Email: [hidden] | |
| Tony has been a fantastic representative for this riding and the City of Brampton for close to 10 years. Every week he hits the doors to talk with constituants as an MPP and Im sure hell do the same as MP for Brampton West. The dynamic of this campaign vs the provincial campaign is completely different. It might be very close but I do see Tony Clement heading to Ottawa. | |||
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23/03/04 | Kevin S. Email: [hidden] | |
| Riding redistribution has given high-profile Tony Clement a strong chance to win this riding. By cutting out Mississauga, the Liberals lost a significant bloc of voters and Clement could possibly break though. | |||
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20/03/04 | Adam B. Email: polski_69@hotmail.com | |
| I think Clement can easily take this riding. He (arrogantly) ignored his own riding during his provincial campaign, explaining why he lost his seat in the provincial legislature. With his old riding association's support, as well as a strong election campaign, I'm sure Tony can convince the small business owners and professionals, as well as voters in general in this riding to side with him and the new Tory party. | |||
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20/03/04 | WD Email: [hidden] | |
| I would have thought Tony might pull off an upset in this riding. However, 9.5% of the leadership vote is the wrong kind of profile. Watch for a lot of polling in this riding, followed by Tony feeling the call of the private sector if the polls aren't better than I'm guessing. | |||
| 20/03/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | ||
| Tony Clement has already ran for leader, finished third, then lost this seat once. Weather history repeats it's self again will depend on the Conservative Party of Canada getting better numbers then the PC Party of Ontario in polls. According to my records (I have records of every election in canadian history) The PC Party of Ontario took 34.6% of the vote, compared to the Liberal's 46.5% and the NDP's 14.7%. If the federal Conservatives can do better then 35% in Ontario, then Clement stands a chance, otherwise... | |||
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19/03/04 | Email: | |
| Tony Clement or not, Colleen Beaumier won here by huge margins. She should take this with ease. | |||
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19/03/04 | CD Email: [hidden] | |
| A number of factors will come in to play. One, how motivated will Tony be if he does not get the leadership? If he is truely committed, then I would say he has a chance of removing Beaumier but lets not forget she won last time with one of the largest Liberal majorities but that was against a weaker and split CA/PC campaign. Also realsize that Brampton has not been a federal conservative strong hold for years. Except for two terms in the 80s (McDermid MP), Brampton has gone Liberal much of the last 3 decades. Also considering the demographic changes in the community over the past decade with a larger immigration population who traditionally supports the Liberals, this will play a big part. As of today, I predict a narrow victory for the incumbent but this can change during the national campaign and whether Tony is 100% montivated to win at a local level (assuming he does not win the leadership). Time will tell and I may change prediction as the election campaign unfolds. | |||
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17/03/04 | Patrick Webber Email: [hidden] | |
| Tony Clement should be able to win back the loyalties of the constituents who tossed him from provincial politics in 2003. The profile he's gained from his bid for the Conservative leadership should provide him with the boost needed to secure a win here. Narrow Conservative victory. | |||
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16/03/04 | SB Email: | |
| Tony Clement is running here for the Conservatives but Liberal Colleen Beaumier has won here with huge a huge majority in the past. I'm not sure Tony can pull off a win here. This riding will remain Liberal. | |||
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16/03/04 | RWA Email: | |
| Tony Clement has a high profile in this riding and this time is on the side of change, instead of fighting that current. The riding no longer has Liberal-friendly Mississauga, which will help Clement's chances. | |||
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