Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:09 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:49 PM 18/03/2004

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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Stuart Langstaff
Gordon O'Connor
Rick Prashaw
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Dan Wicklum

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Lanark-Carleton (78.7%)
Scott Reid
Nepean-Carleton (21.3%)
Hon. David Pratt

2000 Result/Résultats:
19,331 38.02%
19,167 37.69%
9,800 19.27%
1,553 3.05%
998 1.96%

(133/236 polls, 58933/95684 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(37/207 polls, 15983/87883 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 Arzie Chant
Email: achant@uwo.ca
I'm not willing to say either way just yet, but I have it on good authority that the NDP is beginning to nip at the CPC's heels here in Carleton-Lanark. Factor in that Scott Reid fled to greener pastures under redistribution and the prediction that the CPC will take 50-60% of the vote is just laughable.
22/06/04 Full Name
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
In 2000, when it was mainly called Lanark-Carleton, a constitutional affaris academic named Scott Reid won this riding for the Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance, only one of two that election for the Canadian Alliance, now the proud lobbyist Gordon O'Connor has to fight the enemy of redistribution. The NDP have had the biggest surge here than any other part of the province but the question is how will Rick Prashaw bring out that vote on election night or watch the War Room-supported Liberal to slurp up the excess votage instead. The General, who has taken on heavy fire throughout the campaign, wins the Battle of Carleton-Lanark but may lose the Paliamentary War which won't be decided for as long as two years.
14/06/04 toby schnauzer
Given the long history of Conservatives in this area I too must agree with the panel that there is going to be another one elected with about 50-60% support. None of the Candiaidates in this area are stars, nor do I see very much activity at all in my neighbourhood (Stittsville) which is the suburban fringe of the riding. Out of curiousity - what fraud charges? I live in the area and follow the local news and have not heard one peep about this ... I even did an internet search and could find no link. The good news for the NDP is that they will rise from 3-5% support level to a solid 15-20%.
Email: [hidden]
I can't believe people are calling this anything but Tory blue. I live in this riding in Kanata, and the private property signs are running about 4-1 in favour of O'Connor. In the rural parts, it will be Conservatives walking away. The ex-general beats the jock.
10/06/04 Chris
Email: [hidden]
While I call this one NDP, I am biased. However, I think what a lot of the posts are missing is that this election is completely different than any election in the past 10 years at least. Voters are angry and want a change. However, those that I have spoken to are not sure about Gordon O'Connor. Carleton-Lanark is a three way race. Those of us who live here and work here know that. With respect to the NDP, this is the first election in a long time that is organized and coordinated for the NDP. The candidate is very strong, has experience with a national NGO, has community presence and integrity and is an excellent speaker, and he's a nice gut to boot. If the election is decided solely on prejudice, than he might lose, but I wouldn't count Rick out. He is a serious contender.
07/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We have to comment on Jerry Wilson's posting on an NDP win by elimination. This might and stress might work in a riding where there is a close three-way race, but Carelton-Lanark is not anywhere remotly close to that! This is a Conservative-Liberal battle, all the way. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just being nieve or is wishfully thinking. Suburbs tend to be center-right (hence the con-lib battle), just look at those numbers from 2000. Are you saying that the NDP will go from 3% to winning?!??! Get serious. Liberal support is deflating, but if the fraud charges are going to effect Wicklum, then that Liberal support will hold. Quite frankly voter backlash against the Liberals will probably overshadow any scandal, unless Wicklum is forced to withdraw due to these charges. Anyone who thinks that people will just vote NDP, just because, really do not understand the population of this riding. This isn't Burnaby-Douglas after all!
04/06/04 Alex
Email: [hidden]
I don't know enough about this riding to call it, I just wanted to make a comment on how pathetic it is that two people have said the NDP is going to win. The NDP got 3% of the vote in this riding in the last election, to go from that to a plurality is right up there in liklihood with the Bloc forming government. I know people here often stretch truth to fit their perceptions, and I'm not immune to that temptation either, but this is ridiculous.
02/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Here's a switch: a prospective political CFLer who's *not* Reform/Alliance/Conservative. (Cf. Gerry Organ, Dan Ferrone--heck, even Don Getty.) Certainly in the uppermost level of likely/potential CPC Ontario pickups; however, the notional 2000 stats may be skewed somewhat by then-Grit incumbent Ian Murray's fatal personal/ethical issues. Despite Scott Reid, despite Norm Sterling, Kanata proper is not so much Tory-by-nature than Tory by way of favourable seat distribution; after all, its 93-97 Grit tallies were fairly consistent with the rest of the suburban Capital Region. And that may explain why Scott Reid has chosen not to run here, even though, unlike the seat he's chosen, Carleton-Lanark *is* notionally "Alliance"--perhaps CPC was scared of a rekindled suburban Martin sweep and decided that the anti-gun-registry hinterland was the safest bet? So while it looks like a Tory near-certainty given the polls, I'm willing to strategically hold back a prediction in order to account for all of that...
02/06/04 Jerry Wilson
Email: [hidden]
No. The Conservatives won't win this riding. It's clear that the scandal involving O'Connor's Company (9 fraud charges)will sink his campaign. Wicklum isn't a resident of Kanata, where the majority of the population is, and the Grits are losing support due to their flagrant mismanagement. By elimination I predict an NDP victory.
01/06/04 Scott
Email: [hidden]
I've been looking at electoral signage in Kanata. While the Conservatives have what appears to be more signs out, they seem to be predominantly on public land. When looking at lawn signs however, Wicklum appears to have an advantage. This despite getting a later start because his was the only campaign that actually knew and respected Ottawa by-laws on election signage.
26/05/04 Born and bred in Kanata
Email: [hidden]
I believe that this is going to be a tight race. If I had to bet, however, I would go with the Liberals. The Alliance previously took this riding because of a popular candidate (Mr. Reid), a very poor Liberal M.P. (Mr. Murray) and the fact that Lanark County is a conservative hotbed in the Ottawa Valley. Riding redistribution has removed most conservative strongholds (Goulbourn does not make up for the loss of most of Lanark), the Conservatives do not have Mr. Reid in this riding, and the "resurgent" NDP (which will help the Conservatives in some Ontario ridings, by siphoning off left-Liberal votes) is not an issue here. On a personal level, I was visiting my mother in Glen Cairn last weekend, and was able to attend a backyard bbq with a number of the neighbours on the street where I grew up. Despite the fact that there were a number of conservatives present (Sterling supporters at the provincial level, Alliance or Tory lawn signs in the past federal election), there seemed to be a general consensus that the Liberals would take the riding and a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative candidate. This "bbq-poll" is unscientific and merely anecdotal, of course, but provides an insight for this early stage in the campaign.
One more comment: I do not think that the Conservatives can take much comfort from the fact that Sterling held on in the last provincial election. He won based on the old riding boundaries. Granted, he withstood a Liberal tide. Nonetheless, the poll results indicate that he lost a very close race to Wilkinson in Kanata. Given that he was a long-term incumbent, and that Wilkinson has not had much electoral success in recent years, he should have done better than he did.
19/05/04 Robert Jones
Email: [hidden]
While there is considerable urban influence now the the old Lanark-Carleton riding has been redistributed I think there is enough old guard left in the rural areas to easily hand a win to the Conservatives. Anger towards the Liberals over gun registration ,adgate,and BSE at the federal level is strong here. As well there will be spill over from politics and policies at the provicial and municipal level that will translate I belive into an anybody but the Liberals vote.
02/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Gordon O'Connor should win this riding, though I do agree that the previous strong Alliance vote in the riding was a great personal triumph of Scott Reid...in addition to being part of an overall Alliance trend in eastern Ontario in 2000. While most of strongly Conservative Lanark was lost, the riding did retain West Carleton (Conservative by 1,000), pick up Goulbourn township from Nepean Carleton, and that is also pretty safely Conservative (600 vote majority in 2000).
The issue is that the Conservatives really need to run pretty even in Kanata...they lost it by about 1,000 votes in 2000 and need to do about as well this time...the remaining rural areas will give them a 2,200 majority or so but can't be expected to do much better than that...
Will they prevail? My view is yes, although a Conservative landslide in Kanata is doubtful at this point. April's Ekos has the federal Conservatives running about as well in Ontario as the provincial Conservatives, who took Kanata last time by a very narrow margin...All in all, I think the riding will return a Conservative member...maybe by 3,500 votes or so.
24/04/04 B. N.
Email: [hidden]
I cannot believe I just read that someone predicts an NDP victory in Carelton-Lanark. No offence intended to the respondant in question, but that is one of the most illogical predictions I have ever read on this site. This is is one of the least likely ridings in the entire province to elect an NDP candidate. Last time around they captured barely 3% of the vote. Past results never completely predict future outcomes, but there is absolutely no reason to suspect that anything has changed substantially enough here to cause such a radical change in partisan loyalties. If the NDP captured even 10% of the vote it would be a significant moral victory.
09/04/04 Mary
Email: [hidden]
I think your Conservative prediction in this riding is premature. It looks to be a three-party horserace. The NDP campaign and candidate, Rick Prashaw, is in the community newspapers every week. The Conservative candidate, Gordon O'Connor, is no Scott Reid, the very popular incumbent who is not running here. Reid won last time both because of his personal popularity and the large rural section in the old Lanark-Carleton riding. Both are gone now as factors in the new Carleton-Lanark riding. None of the three candidates from the main parties has any elected experience, although Prashaw has been with a national ngo for 12 years and the Liberal candidate, Dan Wicklum, has worked in policy for Ralph Goodale.
This riding should be very much influenced by what happens in the national campaigns.
20/03/04 WD
Email: [hidden]
Since Scott Reid has fled this riding for greener rural pastures, why do you think it's a safe Tory seat? The Conservatives are running Gordon O'Connor, who has never been elected to anything and is proudly a "Senior Associate, Hill & Knowlton Canada (worldwide communications and public affairs company). Consultant helping private-sector companies pursue business opportunities with the Federal Government." Proud to be a lobbyist, in an anti-scandal campaign?
19/03/04 Chris
I find it odd that there be a CP prediction for Carleton-Lanark. It's Carleton-Lanark now, not Lanark-Carleton. Lanark County, which used to be most of this riding, has the strongest right-wing support I think east of Alberta. Now though, Carleton-Lanark is about 90-95% City of Ottawa residents, most of which live and work in urban areas. I would not treat this riding as a Ottawa Valley riding anymore but as a City of Ottawa riding, which are mostly Liberal with the exception of the downtown and some east end neighborhood were the NDP could win. More can still change with the CP riding a temporary high of support from the sponsorship scandal, public boredom or a quick resolution of the scandal will severely hurt the CP. Harper being leader would also hurt because he is seen as too conservative, boring and stupid (Indian Republic Day incident) by the non-conservative public. The political appeal in the west end of Ottawa has changed since 2000. The majority of the people in this riding voted for an NDP member as city counselor (Alex Munter, Peggy Feltman) for the last 12 years. Then there was conservative Rutowksi's massive campaign losing to a left-wing candidate in a landslide victory with a campaign a tiny fraction of that of Rutowski's. Now longer are people putting new BMWs on their driveways from a utopian stock market boom but instead putting signs saying 'My Ottawa supports the Arts: Raise my Taxes'. Though it may be a few signs and the same time, there are even less CP/PC/CA bumper stickers.
17/03/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
I place Carleton-Lanark in the CP column for two reasons. One, the obvious, it contains the majority of the old Lanark-Carelton that was one of only 2 Ontario ridings to elect an Alliance candidate in 2000, despite vote splitting and all the other troubles hounding Day and the party at the time. Second, Eastern Ontario ridings like this have become real conservative strongholds. The provincial PCs held on here, and having Norm Sterling around can't hurt the federal party's chances.

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