Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:36 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
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8:36 PM 6/26/2004

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Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Durk Bruinsma
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Virginia Ervin
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Tim Lang
Bev Oda
Bruce Rogers

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Durham (83.3%)
Alex Shepherd
Pickering-Ajax-Uxbridge (16.7%)
Hon. Dan McTeague

2000 Result/Résultats:
17,901 44.15%
12,557 30.97%
7,676 18.93%
1,968 4.85%
446 1.10%

(147/199 polls, 58879/80623 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(30/200 polls, 11788/85501 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 steve
Email: [hidden]
A recent drive through the riding suggests to me that Oda will win hands down, with signs throughout the riding. I have reluctantly concluded that I too will support Oda. I do wish that young fellow who ran for Reform in 1993 in this riding was still active. Does anyone know what he is up to? I believe his name was Smythe. He was a marvellous speaker with a great vision and a true reformer, unlike Oda. But anyway, we must make do with what we have now and I believe Oda shall carry the day.
23/06/04 S.E.
Email: [hidden]
There is no question that Lang is running a solid and well financed campaign, but the issue will be whether this will be enough and whether phone banks and and mailings will be enough to overcome the parachute issue and the traditional conservative nature of this riding. At this point, highly unlikely. Alex Sheppard got out of the riding before there was a boot mark on his posterior, and Paul Martin's coat-tails disappeared weeks ago. The local undercurrents and ambitions of members of the Liberal party in this riding will also not help this candidate, and he probably is only beginning to realize this now. If the conservatives have an error-free final week, it will likely be a 8-12 point spread between Oda and Lang. Look for Mr. Lang to return to Toronto to run again in St. Paul's or Toronto Centre another day. By his next election, his foray into eastern 905 will seem like a bad dream, but at least he will have learned that Hanc's Fries are the best in the land and that the Bowmanville Zoo will make for a great weekend excursion sometime in the future.
23/06/04 PB
Email: pbaliunas@rogers.com
If you take Oda's "slight edge" in signs on public property and look at what is happening on lawns that edge appears enormous. While I confess to not having been in Scugog or Uxbridge recently I can pretty much count the number of Lang signs I've seen on private property on my fingers and toes. As for the vandalization of signs... when I went to work yesteday evening both Lang and Oda had large arterial signs on Hwy 57 just over a bit from my house. When I got home this morning both were down. As I look out my window now I see that Oda's people have her sign back up while the Lang sign is stilll laying in the grass. I've seen this same phenomena time and time again throughout Clarington. I've said it before and I stand by it, Lang is surprisingly weak on the ground. Every conversation I've had with people involved with the Liberals confirms this. When you have Liberal association executive from other ridings tell you you're probably better off with the Conservative candidate than your local Liberal you know there are problems.
22/06/04 Full Name
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge has been hit with crazy redistribution to the point the former Durham feels like its Tory again and what better than a Red one like Bev Oda who believes her MPP John O'Toole, the finger-flipper who believes in market control, and uber-Whiz Kids will help to get that revenge vote for the loss of former Pickering-Ajax-Uxbridge MPP Janet Ecker provincially and wants to help launch Whitby-Ajax MPP Jim Flaherty's leadership campaign off right for a successful race. Tim Lang, another parachute Martinite Grit candidate, is suffering from volunteeritis, a symptom of apathy over party members caused by a lack of support for the selected victim over the should-have-been-elected favourite and former mayor Doug Moffatt who was denied a nomination meeting, but it can be cured by lying flat on your back while sleeping in your daddy's cold, damp basement despite actually living in the Big TO. The Christian Heritage candidate will take the many Dan McTeague votes to be had because I would think all of the candidates are socially liberal er progressive uh Canadian.
Email: [hidden]
it's my belief that this riding (fairly affluent and usually pretty conservative) will have enough social conservatives vote for the chp and frightened red tories fleeing the reform party to have the liberal candidate come up the middle. a quick count of signs in my area suggests it will be close. the ndp will not cannibalize too many liberal votes, and bruce rogers (their candidate) may even finish behind chp's bruinsma.
20/06/04 M.P.
Email: [hidden]
No progressive Conservative supporters in this Riding? If that writer has ever been in the riding, it must just be to work on Oda's campaign. As a life long resident of this riding, and a one time Tory supporter, I can tell you there is a significant core of red Tories and I know lots will refuse to vote for the present Tories. In fact I know of one former O'toole executive member who is canvassing for Tim Lang. Further, many Liberals who had originally planned to sit this election out due to internal party disputes and the sponsorship scandal, are now returning to Lang, due the perceived 'scariness' of Harper.
Furthermore, while Lang is seen as a parachute candidate, Oda is seen as the queen of patonage Appointments, which is not sitting well with lots of voters. Combine that with perceived poor Oda performances in debates and strong Lang showings and this makes for a pretty close race. Oda seems to have a slight edge in signs, with Lang signs been vandalized far more. (It has been widely speculated for several elections that Tory supporters in this riding are the best at wrecking/stealing opponents signs).
Overall, a tight race that the Liberals squeak out, mainly based on the Lang name.
16/06/04 GJW
Email: [hidden]
Marvin you don't actually think that Durk Bruinsema will get anything other than a token number of votes in this election, do you. People have a real choice in who is going to form the next government so the green party is insignificant this time round. I do agree with you in one respect with regard to my prediction which I would like to revise because what I am hearing now is the Conservatives will be more like 2:1 over the liberals so my numbers could push that number over 60%.
10/06/04 Marvin the Martian
Email: [hidden]
Someone's math doesn't add up. While i don't disagree with the namelss guy below about the outcome in Clarington, he's forgetting Durk Bruinsema of the Family Coalition Party (not listed yet on the side table either). He's got his awful brown signs up all over the major intersections of the riding. And he's likely to pull a few votes from fiscal/social (read: religious) conservatives in the riding. I still think the Greens will have it over him in terms of name-brand recognition and as a place to park a progressive protest vote (they did surprisingly well here during the provincial campaign).
07/06/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
The NDP have announced a candidate in this Riding and he will most defiantly take away some of the liberal support. This riding is historically Conservative and is just looking for a reason to vote for a candidate federally. The Oda campaign is making some serious advances in this riding, with an entrenched resident candidate who has a very impressive resume of achievements. Lang is a non resident with no credentials. The Conservative momentum is just pounding the Liberals and people are going to vote for change in this riding as with the rest of the Province. My Prediction: A big majority - Conservatives 58 %, Liberals 32 %, NDP 9 %, Green 1 %.
02/06/04 PB
Email: [hidden]
While a couple of people seem to want to make a big deal about Oda's campaign manager not living in the riding let's not forget that Lang lives in Toronto and is merely crashing in an Uxbridge basement for convenience. Smart young talent not being used by Oda? Possibly. But there is a equal or greater number of Moffatt supporters who are refusing to take part in the Lang campaign based on their belief that their popular, local, candidate whas unfairly denied the nomination. I'll give them one thing, they've managed to keep all that bad blood behind closed doors for the most part but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. None of that means anything anyway. We're talking about a riding with deep conservative roots. True, many new people have moved into the riding since the last election but given the provincial results there is no reason to believe this has greatly changed the political demographic. If the federal Liberal campaign was steamrolling along and the Conservatives tanked, Lang *might* have an outside chance. Neither of these things has happened, nor from all indications are they likely to.
30/05/04 Marvin the Martian
Email: [hidden]
First: RCS ... who are these "Progressives" you keep talking about? The Conservatives in this riding are among the most regressive (sorry) of any east of Alberta. You could comfortably hold a meeting of all the "progressive" conservatives in Clarington at Expresso Legato. O'Toole's provincial win is important to note because it illustrates that this is a deeply conservative riding. Remember that the man was widely and rightly regarded as a finger-flipping joke of a politician and he STILL won. The only reason this riding has stayed Liberal is vote splitting -- and that's a thing of the past. That you think the NDP could be a serious contender here only shows how out of touch you are. Sarah Polley could run here and campaign naked on horseback and the NDP wouldn't gain any ground. By contrast, the conservatives could run a can of luncheon meat against Lang and win. That's the reality. This seat's going to be called blue before ten polls are in. Second: You're clearly interested in politics because you know that Harper visited here and even remember what he said. I'll bet you a plate of Hanc's fries that you're one of only a handful that know this, or care. Still, even if he sounded like a rip-roaring social and fiscal conservative, he'd fit right in here. The Beaches or the Glebe this ain't, Mac. Finally: Look at the numbers from 2000 again. I'm certain that Liberal support here has dropped considerably (as it has everywhere else). Say, though, it's only gone down by eight percent (say there are 1,500 progressive conservatives who go over to Lang -- a stretch). Assume that all the former Alliance support will go to the Conservatives (why wouldn't it) and that even 80% of the PC support would go with Harper (i'm lowballing it). Combined, the Alliance and PCs ran at 37% nationally last election, while in THIS riding they ran at 50% combined. NDP ran at 8% nationally and 4% here. So here's my final prediction that wi! ll remain unchanged no matter what any candidate in Clarington says or does: Conservatives: 55% of popular vote. Liberals 35% of popular vote. NDP: 8% of popular vote. Greens: 2% FCP: 1%
27/05/04 RCS
Email: [hidden]
It’s great to see the over confidence of the pro Conservative analyses. Over confidence will leads to under estimating your opponents and that's exactly what the "underdog" Liberals need. True, if you were to add up the PC and Alliance vote in past elections the combined sums would be higher than the Liberal support. However, before Ms. Oda starts pricing condos in Ottawa. one needs to consider that many PROGRESSIVE conservatives out here remember a speech that Stephen Harper gave to Clarington Board of Trade while he was still head of the National Citizen's Coalition. During that speech he made it resoundingly clear that he has no tolerance nor will he ever have tolerance for the anything but a strict right wing agenda. His tone is a far cry from his moderate preaching of today. He sounded a whole lot more sincere back then. Many PROGRESSIVE conservatives that I've talked with squirm at the thought of voting for Harper. Add to the fact that there are many new residents living in this riding today, old voting patterns just don't seem to be a very good predictor. Certainly, many people have pointed to the provincial election results. As far as I see it, O'Toole won that race because demonstrated the guts to criticize the PC negative campaign right in front of the Premier, (and because the Liberals in this riding ran a totally disorganized campaign where many communities did not receive any Liberal campaign literature). Last time around the NDP ran a particularly weak candidate. To date, no one has been chosen, but if they manage to run someone who can relate to voters (like a Gord Mills), that in combination with the strong national campaign that Jack Layton is running, we might be looking at a three-way race. If the NDP are not a factor, look for Tim Lang to carry on the family tradition.
26/05/04 SE
Email: [hidden]
I see my friend QM is watching this board as well, but appears to be batting 0/2. I know this riding and it will go Conservative for a variety of factors. Anyone who knows the local scene knows that the PCs and Alliance parties had trouble with their nominations in the past. The PCs even had a dispute go to court. This divided the parties even more. That isn't the case this time around. They have a popular candidate with both sides and someone with an impressive track record. John O'Toole is a very popular riding guy having come from municipal politics and having won handily very recently. The liberals do have some organization here, but the word is that the mayor of Clarington has lofty ambitions and that some Liberals will be giving 50% for Lang, so as to hold the riding for the Mayor next time. The Mayor was the only local Liberal to really stand up for ITER, but he got nowhere with the issue, so he probably decided to sit this one out waiting for people to forget he delivered a fat zero. This will devastate Lang's chances, as he is a virtual unknown despite appearing to be an intelligent and attractive candidate. On June 29th, he will be realizing that he picked the wrong riding. Look for him to run in a Toronto riding next time.
26/05/04 Brad
Email: madmcdonald@yahoo.com
As I said before I have always voted PC in the past. I think it is very ignorant of you to assume that the PC vote will automatically join the Reformers in this new movement. I would agree that many would but at least 40% of that vote will not and they will vote Liberal. With no real NDP push it only hurts the Tories.
To think the Liberals are also not as organized is a mistake. They are at least 10 times better prepared with a lot of practice since it is better much the John Mutton campaign. While there is no doubt that the both campaigns have local people on them the fact remains that Oda is being run by a want-a-be political hack from Toronto while there is a few smart young local talent not even being used be Oda (and I'm sure you all know who I am talking about).
Lastly to even compare Oda to O'Toole is an insult to O'Toole. I'm not saying she is unqualified but the fact remains O'Toole has been working hard in this community for the past 20 years. To say that last falls results are an indication of this springs is nieve and insulting to Mr. O'Tooles work.
25/05/04 Marvin the Martian
Email: [hidden]
Put together the Alliance and PC vote from 2000 (back when Liberals were more popular), consider that this is the whitest, most conservative part of both former ridings (Durham and PAU), factor in widespread dissatisfaction with the Liberals, and remember that this is one of the few areas in the province that stayed with its PC member provincially despite the fact that he's John O'Toole and that's why you've got the CPC "in a walk." Whether or not Oda has the more committed vote or more organized association (she does -- cuz people in this riding want the Libs gone) is only the icing on the cake.
25/05/04 ADH
Email: [hidden]
Fact: Tim Lang has no connection to this riding. He has never severed on any local board or commmettee. He moved into the basement of his stepfather's home in Uxbridge about a month ago.
Fact: Alex Shepard is extremely unpopular MP after not supporting the ITER project, so his reputation is of little use to Lang.
Fact: In the last three elections a united right would have won this riding.
Fact: Bev Oda is a former Chair of the local hospital and severed on varies other committiees in the area for the last 8-10yrs.
All this means:
Conservatives 47% Liberals 40% NDP 13%
25/05/04 PB
Email: [hidden]
To call Oda lazy is simply ignorant or, to put it nicer, a case of wilfull blindness. One need only check out her website to see a rather impressive list of local service and accomplishments. That is not the work of a lazy person. Langs website, on the other hand, lists only service to two organizations, neither of which are local in nature. Where is the service to the community that he now wants to represent from his basement residence of convenience? No one knows where Lang stands because he is a virtual unknown in the riding outside of possibly Uxbridge where he will rely on his family to get him votes.
As for the claim that Oda has brought in a couple people from Toronto to help her campaign, I can't see the people of this riding being so hypocritical as to hold that against her while her opponent maintains his St. Clair West address. If she were to suffer as a result of this perceived faux paux Lang would suffer a hell of alot more. Fact, the overwhelming majority of people working for Oda are local volunteers.
At this point both are relative unknowns to the majority of residents. As they get to know them both I believe they will see that Oda simply has a proven track record of service to the community while Lang is lacking. He simply doesn't have the resume to make up for the fact that he is an unknown. The win goes to Oda.
24/05/04 QM
Email: [hidden]
I have been looking at the postings on this riding and each one gets more and more positive for the CPC. We move from an assumption that due to provincial representation in the riding being PC, it could go CPC. (a flawed conclusion for anyone who has followed politics in Ontario, but ok, I can almost believe it) Then we move on to personal attacks against Mr. Lang and his family with a "by all rights, Bev should win this handily" as the closing line. Really convincing but not quite enough for me. Lastly we have the always popular "conservatives in a walk" line. I agree that 1) the vote splitting between the PC and Alliance was bad but a combined 48% to a Liberal 45% doesn't mean a walk. 2) Again, I do not agree that provincial representation means a whole lot. 3) The name Lang is far from a household name but is known. 4) Unless we are talking about a different Bev Oda and different Tim Lang, the Liberal team in CSU is far more experienced and efficient. I am prepared now to go out on a limb and predict a Liberal win despite and in some cases because of the factors in the previous predictions.
23/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
One more all-too banal factor: no incumbent. Alex Shepherd is not running again; did he read the tea leaves? And another factor: unlike the inner 416, it's still pretty "white" here, even in the "urban" parts. However, if CSU is the only Durham seat to go Conservative, what a way of articulating its stereotypical rural-redneck-rumpness...
19/05/04 Reality Check 2
Email: [hidden]
Fact: Bev Oda's campaign is being run by outsiders from Toronto and the over paid Senate
Fact: While Flaherty may have spoke for Oda his staff were all there working for the other guy
Fact: Mr. Laings roots in this riding go back much longer the Oda
Fact: We all know were Tim Laing stands because he has clear positions on issues like same-sex marriage, abortion, agriculture, crime etc. Bev Oda does nothing but avoid answering these questions and sits on the fence.
19/05/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
I really hope I am wrong, but I think that the Liberals to the shock of many well win this by a sliver. The differnce between Oda and O'Toole is two things. One Oda is lazy and has not made a name for herself. The second is she has pushed away the smart local people to run the campaign and has brought in unqualified wantabes from Toronto to run the show.
12/05/04 Marvin the Martian
Email: [hidden]
Conservatives in a walk. Factors:
1). The conservative vote has been badly split in this area in the past.
2). Durham (of which Clarington is the more conservative part) went with O'Toole provincially. With the provincial Liberals struggling, voters are going to feel even more inclined to go Conservative.
3). Despite what's been said above, NONE of the candidates in this riding have any name recognition. Tie goes to the Conservatives on this one.
4). Local conservatives have a much more efficient organization on the ground. They'll get the vote out.
26/04/04 Reality Check.
Email: [hidden]
I think Tim has a lot of things working against him. First of all he is an unknown in the riding and a relative unknown politically. Rural ridings aren't big on parachute Candidates and living in your fathers basement while you mantain you St. Clair West address in down town Toronto doesn't qualify you are a resident of this riding.
Tim is trying to cash in on what his father and step father have done, because he hasn't done anything. Bev, on the other hand has a list of boards, committies and local orgs she has served on longer than my arm. She is well connected, well articulated and has roots in the community. This is an open and shut case Bev should, by all rights, win this handily.
19/04/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
This is a rural riding in Durham Region. If the suburban ridings in Durham Region were vote-splitting ridings and stayed PC provincially, then this one has an even better shot at going CPC federally.
09/04/04 QM
Email: [hidden]
Tim Lang has been under-estimated by the past predictions. His personal appeal will go a long way in this riding. This riding will go the way of the Minority/Majority Liberal government. If it is a small majority, this riding will be Liberal. If the Liberals get a minority government, this riding will be in danger but do not count out Tim Lang's personal popularity and appeal.
25/03/04 V.D.
Email: [hidden]
Possible conservative win. The Conservative candidate Bev Oda has MPP John O'Toole, former MPP for Pickering-Ajax-Uxbridge Janet Ecker and Whitby-Ajax MPP Jim Flaherty who support her and spoke at her nomination (most likely will help come the election) Have to wait and see
17/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Liberal on Life-support #2.
Ridings with a Liberal vote under 45%, and less than the total PC + CA votes can be held, but the Liberals will have to work as hard to hold off the NDP as they do to draw red Tories away from the Conservatives.
15/03/04 905er
Tough riding and the most likely of all the Durham ridings to fall. Only 44% of the vote went to the Liberals last time and they have nominated a candidate that is not well known in the riding. It's outcome will depend upon how well Martin can do in attracting small C conservatives and staving off a united vote.

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