Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:37 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:37 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Gary Carr
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Frank Marchetti
Dean Martin
Anwar Naqvi

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Burlington (1.0%)
Paddy Torsney
Halton (99.0%)
Julian Reed

2000 Result/Résultats:
18,404 49.06%
9,525 25.39%
7,377 19.67%
1,580 4.21%
626 1.67%

(3/223 polls, 609/77382 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(120/212 polls, 61945/98898 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Authorized by the Official Agent for the Halton Federal Conservative Association
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Halton should have gone Gary Carr but that last minute defection of a former Liberal candidate and Team Paul's ineffective campaign thus far in the 905 where everyone who voted McGuinty feel ripped off has hurt Carr. Dean Martin is the alternative, but the truth is the Conservative will only win by default, if they do at all. The overall key here is traditional values and Blue Liberals are going to Martin over Carr because when Gary was a Speaker of the Legislature, he was a Red Tory but the saving grace for Carr is that he told off fellow Red Tory Ernie Eves when he was Premier for the Magna Budget made outside of Queen's Park and instead inside a factory in Aurora for future democracy's sake.
21/06/04 K McIntyre
Email: [hidden]
Halton, like pretty much the entire 905 belt, is tough to call, and could swing depending on national campaign momentum. One of the key factors is the mass of new housing in Milton and north Oakville. These are homes that did not exist in the 2000 election, and so make the result hard to extrapolate historically. This also makes the name recognition of Gary Carr somewhat less of a factor. While I haven't done a complete survey, there do seem to be more blue signs than red, even in the new developments. Overall I think the strong Conservative sentiment of the rural parts of the riding will win out over Liberal leanings in the Oakville area. And for the fellow below who mentioned there were no Gary Carr signs for a while after the election was called -- I think it took a while to receive them because they had to get special "Team Paul" signs instead of "Team Martin", lest they accidentally appear to be endorsing the opponent!
21/06/04 One Conservative
Email: [hidden]
Gary Carr's campaign has been mortally wounded with the defection of Mohan Anand the former Liberal Candidate who has endorsed Dean Martin. Mr. Anand's decision to support Dean will take away alot of the community support that Gary was counting on and I understand that money has been walking in the door since Mohan has authorized a flyer with his photo shaking hands with Dean and talking about how he will defend traditional values.
Put this one in the solid win side now.
24/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
The 70s puckstopper turned Progressive Gritservative who isn't Ken Dryden--and more explicitly so, although of less import because Gary Carr's performance as Ontario Speaker was apostasy enough. Strictly extrapolating from 2000 patterns, Halton's less treacherous for the Liberals than it looks; mostly because the rapid-growth swath of betwixt-401-and-QEW land that now composes Halton has more and more in common with its "Martin's Mississauga" neighbours. (Even the Halton/Peel "WASP divide" is less explicit than it used to be.) Of course, it's no longer safe to strictly extrapolate from 2000 patterns. Yes, Carr's party switch sends a strong message of moderation vs (perceived) extremism, or of the Martin Liberals as the true "Eves Tory" (as opposed to "Flaherty Tory") party--yet Dean Martin's still reasonably well positioned to make Carr whine like Jerry Lewis. However, as Tory threats go, Dino's more at a Tony Clement/Brampton West than David Tilson/Dufferin-Caledon level.
23/05/04 j
I did a rather thorough drive-through of the Halton riding (especially the Milton part), and to my surprise I didn't see a single Gary Carr Liberal sign -- on public or private property. While I know it's only the first day, I did notice a good number of Conservative signs (a few on private property). I would say that the local Conservatives are winning the early sign war. Carr's campaign may be waiting until the first week, however I would have suspected that some of his signs would have been visible from the moment that Paul Martin walked out of Rideau Hall. I've noticed that in past federal and provincial elections most well organized and competitive candidates have at least some signs out (at intersections for example) the day the writ is dropped. Again I was surprised that I could find no Carr signs. Perhaps an indication of a weak organization on the part of the Carr campaign. However, things should start to become clearer by mid-week when I would expect that both of the Liberal and Conservative campaigns should really start to have a visible sign presence on the ground.
01/05/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
Even though I would like to see Dean win, the riding re-distribution is going to give Gary Carr the trophy. The more Conservative Halton Hills and Georgetown have been cut away into the new Wellington-Halton Hills riding, giving the CPC an easy win up there. Also, a chunk of north-east Oakville (a rather upper-class neighbourhood) north of Upper Middle Road has been added to the Oakville riding, giving the Tories a higher chance down there. This leaves more voter weight to Milton, which is not the most Conservative town. And I hate to say it, but "Red Tory" voters will feel comfortable voting for Gary Carr and they will do it. I know Wellington-Halton Hills is a definite Tory win, and Burlington & Oakville are high probable Tory pickups as well, but 'Halton' is doomed to stay Liberal.
30/03/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
So Gary Carr has been nominated to run Liberal. This will be an interesting riding to watch because it should be a horse race to the finish line. I think name recognition may come into play here. Provincially, Ted Chudleigh (Progressive Conservative MPP) held onto this seat but I think some personal popularity helped that. Dean Martin has been pretty active throughout this riding for a long time but Carr only moved there a few months ago. I'm not sure if his former Speaker of the Legislature status is known to many people outside of Oakville or not. Carr hasn't represented anyone in this riding before so the people here might not know what made him a popular MPP to begin with. This is a tough one to call, I think Martin has the advantage but it's too early.
27/03/04 J
Email: [hidden]
Halton may mimick its recent provincial voting patterns. The result will likely be close.
27/03/04 1 Conservative
Email: [hidden]
Sorry to report editor but a majority of the 407 liberals who cast votes in last nights nomination voted for Gary Carr. I still think Dean Martin as part of the Harper Team will win Halton but maybe not by as much, I would have really loved campaigning against Duffus.
26/03/04 1 Conservative
Email: [hidden]
With the Liberal nomination tonight we will see if it's going to be a respectable Conservative victory or a total embarassment of the Liberals. If they elect Gary Carr the only way it will be close is if people still think he's a Tory ( was he ever really one in the first place) If they elect the Dufus, he's going to have to look Halton up on a map and drive here from Peterborough where he is supposidly living. Plus I would assume his position on the right of Homosexuals to marry might discout him as a choice for alot of Halton voters. either way I think you should put this one in the Blue column.
24/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
A falling Liberal vote, a united right vote and a rising NDP. Face it, short of a miracle for the federal Liberals, this is going CPC
24/03/04 Gerry
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
The previous posters are Conservative wishful thinkers. The Conservatives will do better in Ontario than they did in the last election but they sure as hell won't win ridings where the two parties combined did less than the Liberals in the last election.
If Gary Carr runs for the Liberals, it's a sewn deal as he's enormously popular and respected across all party lines.
20/03/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals and the United Right already have faced off in this riding once, last fall when provincial Tory Ted Chudleigh comfortably held on to Halton in the face of a Liberal surge. The federal Liberals won't fare nearly as well here as their provincial cousins, because this time the momentum for "change" cuts clearly against them. Burlington, Halton and possibly Oakville are high probability Tory pick-ups in 2004.
18/03/04 M. Cluett
Email: [hidden]
For the past 11 years, the riding of Halton has had Julien Reed as MP (Liberal) and given the recent events with sponsorhip gate I think this riding is need of a change. Now that Julien Reed has retired (run away as some think) that opens the riding up.
The liberal nomination is being sought by Gary Carr (former PC MPP with Mike Harris and the Common Sense Revolution) and Peter Duffus (who claims to be a Halton entrepreneur, but no one knows anything about him).
The good sign for Halton is a very strong Conservative Party candidate Dean Martin, who believe it or not, is knocking on doors now. He is a strong individual who clearly is not only voicing peoples frustrations with the current government, but is also providing constituants a reason to vote FOR him.
He clearly is the man to beat in the upcoming election. My predicition is that the more organized Dean Martin will surprise a lot of people and win this riding.
17/03/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
I'd say this will be another Conservative gain. This wasn't a vote-split riding, but it was close and the historic voting trends for Halton Region have always bent Conservative. The Liberals had a shot of maintaining this seat with the possibility of former MPP Gary Carr running, but the Toronto Star has reported he has since backed out.

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