Election Prediction Project
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Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
Hamilton-Est-Stoney Creek

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:13 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:17 AM 3/17/2004

Constituency Profile
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(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Sam Cino
Tony DePaulo
Fred Eisenberger
Bob Mann
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Richard Safka
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Tony Valeri

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Hamilton East (47.7%)
Hon. Sheila Copps
Stoney Creek (52.3%)
Hon. Tony Valeri

2000 Result/Résultats:
23,980 54.50%
9,847 22.38%
4,908 11.15%
4,396 9.99%
873 1.98%

Hamilton East
(114/190 polls, 38466/64520 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Stoney Creek
(114/210 polls, 42105/77857 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Authorized by the Official Agent for the Fred Eisenberger Campaign
24/06/04 Mark R.
Email: [hidden]
The NDP may be capable of sweeping the entire Hamilton area due to disgust with Liberals, provincially, plus the Stelco issue. Sheila Copps has lots of former supporters working for the NDP candidate.
24/06/04 Justin
Email: [hidden]
Last week's Stoney Creek News endorsed Valeri. The Editor mentioned how he has always voted for the Green Party and can't stand Martin. But he says, in an editorial entitled "Despite his party, Tony Valeri is a classy guy" that Valeri is the choice for HESC.
The editor, Mark Cripps righfully points to DePaulo's lack of class in attacking Valeri for being part of the scheduled parade for Stoney Creek Flag Day - this despite the fact that Valeri was the driving force into getting this event back after it was cancelled after Stoney Creek was amalgamated into Hamilton AND despite the fact the DePaulo has not done anything worth mentioning for Stoney Creek before he decided to seek public office.
Cripps concludes with "For the record, I won't be voting for the Green Party this election. I'll be voting for the individual I believe cares the most for this community."
The Stoney Creek News is particularly influential in the Old Town - the old Tory heartland where Eisenberger has failed to get a real footholding - I suspect this endorsement will help Valeri in this area.
Valeri will get 45% of the vote. DePaulo and Eisenberger will race for second...Green party and others will get less than 2% total.
24/06/04 JE
Email: [hidden]
I'm surprised that no-one has tried to analyse the fact that Sheila Copps officially announced her intention not to run as an independent the day after the much celebrated provincial by-election...
Co-incidence? Perhaps. I think that most people believe she made her decision long before, and was just too busy, or something, to make it official until just before the election call. Implying, perhaps, that she had a heads-up from the PMO (is that likely?), or at least better sources than the media who were predicting an election call in April. Hmmm... here's an alternate suggestion:
I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that Copps wants to see Valeri defeated. If the NDP had mysteriously tanked during the provincial by-election, then she would have wanted to run as an independent, in order to guarantee his defeat. But that didn't happen. The scale of NDP victory apparently convinced her that it was unnecessary to use her "nuclear option", allowing her to retire, if not gracefully, then at least with less rancour than we've come to expect from her.
So, what I am saying is that I think Sheila thinks Tony is toast. Now, some of you might say that Sheila's not the brightest candle, so we shouldn't take her predictions too seriously. But I would say that punditry is more about instinct than intellect, and that if political instincts were biceps, Sheila would be among the top arm-wrestlers in the world!
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Hometown Sheila Copps gets wacked by out-of-town Tony Valeri, loud and proud Dominic Agostino is replaced by silent and relient Andrea Horwath and redistribution works for the progressive candidate here. Though this would seem to be union coordinator Tony DePaulo's for the taking with all the anger against the governing party on Stelco, Valeri's got the cash, the resources and the people to take it all, including all of Stoney Creek, though many Red Liberals feel sad they were gilted by their party at the major nomination meeting, it would seem enough will turn out for the Grit. Hamilton East-Stoney Creek could have been Tequila Sheila's straight, could have bucked the trend and ran on her own record as an Independent who would abolish the GST and prove she is indeed nobody's baby but now she is just another Liberal pack rat waiting for Team Martin to pass away before gaining her seat back and killed that by letting Tony get his kick at the can unsuccessfully by the skin of a raw-raw tabby.
23/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Based on my eyes and ears in the riding it is all NDP. The Liberals are finished here because of Copps. The Conservatives will take enough from them in Stoney Creek to finish off Valeri.
23/06/04 Normand
Email: [hidden]
If I could have one wish for every Hamilton East Stoney Creek voter is that they read publius and Justins comments over ten times before they vote
The Valeri campaign is not a joyous campaign that makes people happy. By organizing a campaign to oust Sheila Copps the Martin people did only one thing - they hurt the people of Hamilton East Stoney Creek.
Oh if the voters could only see what happened on the nomination. Martin brough scrutineers from Ottawa to yell harass and speak down to people. Canada changed on that day. Tony Valeri does not live in the riding. He stole a riding from a loved Woman MP (even though there is a shortage of woman MP's in Ottawa). Nobody can ever argue that Sheila Copps truly loved and worked for her constituents.
The reality of this election in Hamilton East/Stoney Creek
1. Anger from a large segment of Sheila Copps voters:
There are Sheila Copps voters who will either
1) vote NDP
2) vote Green/Independent
3) spoil their ballot
4) not show up
Valeri can't count on every person who voted liberal last time
2. There is no Liberal majority about to happen. Nobody is predicting that. The best that can happen for the Liberals is a Liberal/NDP coalition
Thus by voting for NDP you still get the same government.
3. The pension issue is real. It will be the difference if seniors on my street are eating Kraft dinner in their golden years. It is the number one local issue. people are loosing sleep over it. People are saying DePaulo is our advocate - he has been doing it and he knows the issue.
4. No Liberal canvasser has knocked on my door in Hamilton. My street use to be filled with Sheila's signs. It is now DePaulo 7 signs, Eisenberger 1, Green 1
5. Yes McQuinty is an issue
6. DePaulo's people have knocked on my door three times. I gave them coffee.
7. I did receive Eisenberger literature and somebody did knock on my door (I was out). Even though I think the NDP will will - Eisenberger is obviously VERY organized.
8. Yes NDP numbers are hugely up since the last Federal election. Andrea won by a landslide.
I predict DePaulo will win
22/06/04 adriano
Email: [hidden]
Just as I pedicted, the moment Depaulo opens his mouth, his lack of substance becomes obvious. Wonder what happened to the schoolyard bully you knew as a kid? Well he is running for the NDPin HESC. THe NDP had better hope that no one watches the cable 14 debate, because the race is just too close to let Tony D be exposed. Tough luck. The only surprise now will be the extent of Valeri's victory.
20/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
NDP support in Ontario in 2000 was 8 now 26 and has tripled.
Conservative support has declined from last election combined suppport (was 38)
Liberal support has also declined (was 40).
This is a riding where the natural second choice in at least the hamilton east part is NDP (see recent by-election) , but in the Stoney Creek Part i t is CPC.
That makes this one a 3-way split with the Valeri Copps issue likely to have some effect similar to what it did in the provincial by-election.
NDP-CPC fight here?
20/06/04 publius
Email: [hidden]
The candidates debate is going to be crucial. DePaulo will be exposed for the mindless, loudmouth thug that he is. Again the NDP has not presented any kind of constructive plan to help Stelco, only diatribes and Liberal-bashing. What really puzzles this observer is how the Union bosses can bring a motion seeking to remove Stelco from bankrupcy protection. Thereby leaving the company at the mercy of ravenous creditors. It seems to me to be a scorched earth policy not designed to help the employees but only seeking more fodder with which to bash the Libs. As for padding the site with self-serving predictions- you N.D.P'ers are setting the standard. On the day of the election call, some areas were inundated with DePaulo signs that are now being stored in garages. Which leads one to believe that they should not have been up in the first place. THe Liberal base in hesc is holding enough to keep Valeriin . a liberal hold.
20/06/04 Justin
Email: [hidden]
In response to Normand: I think that looking down your street and judging how many signs are there only tells you how many signs are on the street. You come from the Hamilton East portion of the riding - which makes up a MINORITY of this new riding! It might surprise you but the riding now includes working farms! It is NOT the same riding as last time.
If you want to talk about the sign war, here are my observations: In Hamilton East, around Centre Mall, the NDP is killing the Libs in signs. North of King Street, nobody seems to be interested in the campaign. In the Rosedale area, Valeri is in the lead. Valeri is now leading in Strawberry hill as well.
In the old Stoney Creek riding: East Hamilton - Greenhill Ave is solidly Liberal. Old Stoney Creek is a three way split. Federal Street/Roxborough has strong Lib and NDP areas. The ethnic Italian/Croatian heart (basically everything from Gray Rd to Fruitland, south of King Street, plus north of King between Gray and Millen is going Liberal - aside from houses that are being pressured into taking an NDP sign. The East Indian/Italian areas from Millen to Fruitland are hugely for Valeri (The few East Indian supporters of Copps who have gone to the NDP appear unable to break into this area). The rural area east of Fruitland road is surprisingly a wasteland for the Cons.....they should be doing well better here. Aside from a few NDP signs on McNeilly Road (courtesy of NDP stalwart and Steelworker's member Ben Desroches), Liberal signs outnumber anyone else.
Another thing: I count signs, not just by going on the main streets....I keep an eye on neighbourhood streets, you know, where people live. When you do that AND GO ACROSS THE RIDING, not just in particular areas only, you see that Valeri definitely is winning the sign war.
20/06/04 Justice Jack
Email: [hidden]
I have been knocking on doors for a political party around the Hamilton area and I do not see how any Liberal volunteer could not be demoralized in Hamilton, especially in the East End. On top of the general anger that is present in Ontario, there is the Sheila Copps fiasco, the McGuinty budget and the momentum from the Hamilton East by-election. I believe that when you factor in Eisenberger's credibility on the right, that this riding is a lock for the NDP. To suggest that the Liberal campaign is going full steam goes against all logic.
14/06/04 Don K
Email: donk@egale.ca
I think that if the NDP were to win this riding, it would be a feather in Sheila Copps' hat. Tony Valeri's defeat would definitely ensure that the voters in that riding were annoyed with the Liberals and their treatment of Ms. Copps. Remember, it was only liberal party members that were able to vote for either Sheila or Tony in their nomination battle, not the entire population of that riding. The tables will turn on Valeri (rightfully so) and the NDP will win as a hate-vote for the Liberals.
14/06/04 Normand
Email: [hidden]
IGB provides a very well written memo below.
However, his logic fails
There is no argument that the Liberal campaign isn't in complete chaos. The word desperate is widely used. Anger toward McQuintry is affecting the whole province.
It is affecting Hamilton East. I would say that DePaulo is winning the sign war in Hamilton East (3 to 1) and Eisenberger is winning the sign war in Stoney Creek (especially the edges of Stoney Creek)
The sign war proved to be a good indicator in Andrea's recent victory.
IGB makes a point that Valeri is a Cabinet Minister. There are now serious question whether either Martin or Harper will be forming the next government.
As a Liberal majority is completely out of the question. The Liberals will need NDP support to boost their minority.
Also, the mentions there is some residual anger about the Copps nomination. I can confirm that it is huge and I mean huuuuuge. If you just look at my little street that use to have at least ten Copps signs and now not one Liberal signs (six DePaulo signs and one Green) (but yes I do think McQuinty is a factor not just the cheating by the Valeri people at Copps nomination)
Also, as everybody is expecting a minority government. How long will it last. It could be as short as five months. If we dump Valeri we clear the way (who knows if Martin will stick around) for the next eelction taht could be held very shortly.
Also DePaulo got a big boost when a senior official from an American Labour union boosted his campaign
Pensions are a big issue in this riding, It is more than just Stelco they affect workers in Slater Steel, Canadian Drawn, Frost Fence
12/06/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
Having just received an email from a YLC staffer telling me to visit this site and "put in Liberal predictions," I'm afraid I'll have to say the NDP has a very good shot at winning this riding.
Here are a few key reasons in my mind:
1) The federal Liberal campaign is, acknowledgely, desperate and spiralling. This utterly demoralizes the crucial volunteers who have to put up signs and drive people to the polls. This has an effect on a riding such as Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, where the final decision might have a difference of only a few hundred votes.
2) Stelco Stelco Stelco! It is bad-news story after bad-news story with this company. GM wants to terminate a supply contract it had with Stelco. It seems that many people are going to lose their jobs or at least take a substantive cut in pay. This will force anyone remotely connected to the economic benefits of the company to consider other political parties with a concrete plan to help Stelco. With Stephen Harper coming out and saying he's against subsidizing industries (Lord knows why, every other prosperous country does it), voters will turn to an NDP candidate promising everything under the moon.
3) There is still copious amounts of bad blood between Valeri's and Copps' two camps. Left leaning Liberals will see the N.D.P. as a comfortable place to park their vote while waiting for the next series of Liberal leadership battles and nomination meetings.
4) Eisenberger is going to steal alot of Liberal votes too. The splitting between Valeri and Eisenberger will allow DePaulo to squeak up the middle.
10/06/04 adriano
Email: [hidden]
Lets clarify a few things. At Valeri headquarters, morale is high and volunteers are plentiful. I've worked on campaigns for 35 years and this one is as well-organized and optimistic as any I have ever seen. Unfortunately some people are ignorant of basic civics and are unable to differentiate between a federal and a provincial party. Hence the Dalton factor. But most can, and do make the distinction. People are polite even if they disagree. I have yet to have a door slammed in my face. The Spectator, being the banal rag that it is, sees a cheap story in "disaffected liberals helping other parties", so of coarse they are going to run with it. Henry Lee and Tejinder Singh, get their 15 minutes of fame. But no real damage is done. The fact is, Valeri strength is holding in the traditional Liberal stronghold of Stoney Creek.People really have not been offered any viable alternative to the Liberals. Oh yes lets pay some homage to Sheila. Without her malevolent pressence, Valeri would not have been able to sign up all those thousands of party members. With that kind of base, the Liberals will hold on to this riding and Valeri will keep his cabinet post. And yes, I have heard at the door way of Unions pressuring their members to post NDP lawn signs.
09/06/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
Now, to the facts (as I see them): I'm not going to go over past history, who-won-in-what-election way back in the 1970s because what matters is the here and now. The fact of the matter is that all three parties are running strong candidates and have a legitimate shot at the riding.
Let's start with the Liberals: Tony Valeri is a cabinet minister, is an incumbent with a long history and there is a natural Liberal bent for this riding. His team is strong and will be pulling out every vote they can. Also, although ethnic groups and newer Canadians can no longer be expected to vote en masse for one party in this modern day and age, in Hamilton this trend is disappearing slower than in other areas, with this advantage going to Valeri and the Liberals. Those are his advantages. Disadvantages are anger at the Liberal brand. With the "time for a change" feeling seeming to sweep the Hamilton area and could swell to large proportions, with either DePaulo or Eisenberger becoming the clear beneficiary with voters deciding to support one over the other. Also, yes, there is still some residual anger at Valeri for beating Copps. Although this group isn't huge, with the race so close they could be a pretty important factor.
Fred Eisenberger for the Conservatives was, I think, a good choice for the nomination. Although Fred has seemingly played footsie with seemingly every party under the sun, the Cons have got a candidate with name recognition and strength. Although he hasn't been on Council for a long time, people still remember him as an Alderman. Everyone in Hamilton Centre is quick to point out that David Christopherson did well in the areas that he's running in in the 2003 mayoral election -- actually, in the 2000 mayoral election, Fred Eisenberger did well in parts of Hamilton's East End (behind Bob Morrow but beating Munro and even Wade). Add that to potential support he can pick up in the wealthier, more conservative areas of Stoney Creek, and acting on residual anger against the Liberals, shows that Eisenberger has a legitimate shot at it, too.
Now to Tony DePaulo and the NDP. I'm still reticent to think that the NDP can win this seat, but it looks like the party is going to be a definite factor in the Hamilton East portion of the riding. Yeah, I know the NDP won the old riding of Wentworth East in the 1990 Ontario election, but that means nothing when equating NDP support in this election in Stoney Creek. DePaulo seems to be running on the Stelco anger issue (with Valeri rightly noting that the NDP government was responsible for the pension mess anyway -- this doesn't seem to get a lot of press, though), and with a strong federal NDP campaign voters could rally around DePaulo, even in Stoney Creek.
In conclusion, I still give the advantage to Valeri but it can go either of three ways. Once again, the race to watch in the Golden Horseshoe (and, aside from Layton-Mills in Toronto-Danforth and Broadbent-Mahoney in Ottawa Centre, the most interesting race in all Ontario).
09/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
Craig Oliver said tonight on Mike Duffy's program on CTV that Liberal sources had confirmed to him that it is over for Hamilton Liberals Stan Keyes and Tony Valeri, so this would be a good time to predict an NDP win here.
05/06/04 pasqualino
Email: [hidden]
Here is some information you all may wish to consider. I was speaking with my neighbour just today. I know him to be a staunch Liberal, so I asked him about the NDP/DePaulo sign on his front lawn. He told me that his union steward came by and put the sign up. My neighbour further told me that the sign will stay up because he is afraid of being blackballed by his Union, but he will voting for Valeri. So don't be misled by all the Depaulo signs in the riding. They count ballots not signs and thank God for the secret ballot.
04/06/04 Normand
Email: handerson5@cogeco.ca
It is quite obvious that the dude is a Liberal insider. It is reported in the press that the Liberal party can't find canvassers in Hamilton, because nobody wants the door slammed in the face
I think Eisenberger's people are motivated. They are quite buoyant at the door (hey who knows if they get out their vote in Stoney Creek?)
Valeri hasn't made enemies..oh pleeease , pleease.. I would not even report what Sheila's supporters call him. It is a very bad name. It is well known in Hamilton East that Valeri's people snuck people through the back door.
AND that a list of legitimate transfers voters were not allowed to vote.
It's the conversation of everybody.
Very Important: the voters from Barlake are WONDERFUL people. The Liberal party welcomes these people .. they are voters.
I'm proud to call them neighbours.
Now that a Liberal majority will not happen and it is either Liberal/NDP or Conservative/Bloc, people can vote NDP in winnable ridings and get people who will keep the Liberals honest, and most importantly Andrea Howarth's knockout victory (didn't she take almost EVERY poll, Liberals loose every poll)
this riding is in contention
03/06/04 JT
Email: jaytenca@yahoo.ca
This riding gets more bizarre by the day. The NDP candidate could possibly win by a split vote. Espcially if Eisenberger gets any real support in the riding.
02/06/04 Olive_Branch
Email: [hidden]
The_Dude, typical Liberal-insider fashion, is trying to frame the campaign artificially as a battle between Libs and Cons with NDP as not a factor. But in Hamilton-East this scenario is laughable at best. Any indepedent observer knows that the NDP are definitely a contender is this riding if not the favourite now.
01/06/04 the dude
Email: [hidden]
OH yes. The NDP has all the solutions to solve Stelco's problems. In true socialist fashion, I guess they are going to nationalize it and have it run by the apparachniki. As the rest of the world (including China) turns away from Socialism , you and Comrade Jack expect Canadians to embrace it. People of HESC (at least the ones that vote) have worked hard for what they have acheived. Although blue collar, they don't expect any free rides and don't want to finance anyone else's free ride. As for Sheila...... yesterdays news. The demographic/ethnic group, which supported Sheila in droves at the nomination, bussed in from the Barlake area, consists of Liberals who are not Canadian citizens, can't vote, and will not be a factor. Without this group the nomination would not have been close. I also see Sheila is out pounding the pavement, campaigning for Dennis Mills, directly against Comrade Jack. Can a reconciliation be in the offing? As stated by another poster, Valeri, is careful to keep himself above the fray and not make enemies. Prediction, Liberal with some noise from Eisenberger... DePaulo. not a factor
01/06/04 Justin
Email: [hidden]
I find Reb's comments rather interesting....he predicts that it will be between NDP and Libs in Hamilton East portion and Libs and Cons in Stoney Creek.....unless the NDP is poised to get 75% of the vote in Hamilton East (which they are not), I don't understand how the NDP is supposed to come out on top.
You guys should remember, notwithstanding Horwath's victory, Hamilton East is only half of HESC (and Howarth's riding is not all going into HESC - 40% of it is going into Hamilton Centre).
The Libs are facing a strong NDP in Hamilton East and a strong Conservative Party in Stoney Creek. But the NDP and Cons have to unite into one party, in order for there to be a real race here.
29/05/04 reb
Email: [hidden]
I have never laughed so hard as when I read the recent submssion on the Hamilton East portion of the riding being a 2 way race between the Libs and cons. Ha Ha ha. My god - does this person have ANY knowledge of the local riding. Conservatives in HE - boy that is a good one - what did they get in the by-election - 7% - and with a good candidate too! This is a two way race in HE portion between credible candidate Depaulo and Valeri - will Copps voters support Valeri - I doubt it. In SC portion of riding Freddie has a chance to be close to Valeri. But the overall total riding split is maybe having a winner with less than 40% of the vote - I believe that will be Tony DePaulo.
29/05/04 Normand
Email: [hidden]
Adriano??? Valeri doesn't make enemies. Oh pleeease
You obviously never spoke to a Copps supporter.
And a lot of women really feel horrified at what was done at Sheila (and the Liberal party is running LESS women candidates than 2000)
With Andrea's knockout victory in Hamilton East;
Eisenberger people motivated in Stoney Creek;
most Canadians are accepting that Liberal majority is now impossible;
everybody has accepted Dalton lied in the last election
Valeri was chair of the Steel Caucus and regretfully the steel industry is in utter turmoil.
Valeri was Transport Minister and West Jet moves some planes to Pearson airport.
Also, pensions are a huuge issue in Hamilton East - if the Liberal were to get a majority (they won't) you know there will be no pension reform
Tight win for Depaulo
28/05/04 adriano
Email: [hidden]
Notwithstanding the goings on in Quebec and the Dalton factor, Valeri has one major strength. He just does not make enemies. There just isn't anyone who dislikes the man. He has a loyal following and people appreciate his Cabinet status. Eisenbergers credibility is suspect by virtue of the well known fact that slick Freddie was actively chasing Beth Phinnie's Liberal spot as the Hamilton Mountain Liberal nominee before having the CPC nomination handed to him in a virtual coronation. Tony De Paulo is a bombastic blowhard whose lack of substance will become obvious the moment he opens his mouth. In Hamilton East its a 2 horse race between the Libs and cons and in the Creek a 2 horse race between the Libs and NDP, net result, a Valeri win.
26/05/04 justin
Email: [hidden]
Just because you wish a victory, does not mean it is going to happen. Peter Cassidy should know....he predicted NDP victories in Stoney Creek and Hamilton West in last fall's provincial election. While it was close in Hamilton West, it was not even close in Stoney Creek.
Unless 75% of Sheila Copps' old voters decide not to support the Liberals this time AND Tony Valeri loses 30% of his supporters for some reason (which is not happening, according to Ontario opinion polls) AND assuming that ALL of those votes will be going to ONE opposition party, Tony Valeri will win this one.
26/05/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@hotmail.com
Now that by-election hysteria etc has worn off, I'll give this one another go...
HESC looking like a very interesting race (yay!) as all three major parties have strong candidates, and the riding is made up of almost equal parts of two old ones etc etc...
For DePaulo to win he needs a strong showing in the inner Hamilton part of the riding (he may also need a fairly good result in Stoney Creek if Valeri polls well in the Copps' old seat), while Valeri needs a solid showing Stoney Creek (he'd also like to do well in the inner Hamilton area, though whether or not the bitterness there has died is debatable), and Eisenberger *also* needs to do well in Stoney Creek... and if he splits with Valeri there and the Copps supporters in the Hamilton East part of the riding vote for DePaulo, he could end up playing spoiler... of course the riding might split the *other* way, in which case Eisenberger could end up coming through the middle...
On a balance of probabilities, DePaulo appears to be the most likely to win, but it's certainly not beyond reasonable doubt yet...
25/05/04 Tim M.
Email: [hidden]
I’ll leave the historical analysis of the votes in this riding to you guys, I’ll look at what is presently occuring. It seems to be agreeable that this will become a Liberal and NDP showdown for Hamilton-East/Stoney Creek riding. I believe the essential factor to an NDP defeat of the Liberals is a splintering effect of regular Liberal voters. Notably in reference to the nomination battle not too long ago, it boiled down to a battle between the moderate-lefts(Copps) and moderate-rights(Valeri). With 5,313 Liberals voting, Valeri won by a quite modest 53 percent of the ballots with 2816 to Copps' 47 percent with 2497. With the conspiracy plots and general nastiness abound, it will be interesting to see how this 2497 populous vote. Couple this with the Budget/Health issues and Sponsorship Scandal adding to the shady corporation image floating around the Liberal party and we might be looking at some Liberals moving across party lines changing the stakes in an already close election. No matter the outcome it will be very interesting election and I hope we can get a great voter turn-out.
25/05/04 Justin
Email: [hidden]
I am glad that former NDP candidate Peter Cassidy is interested in analysing HESC....his optimism aside.
Peter's historical analysis is good, except for a couple of things....Sharon Lenhert lost to Gordon Dean (PC), not Trevor Pettit and then she lost to Shirley Collins. Mark Morrow did win in 1990 but then, like all NDP people, came third in 1995.
The other problem with going back to Martino and Diefenbacher, as Peter has done, is that the ridings have changed, and changed big time. The riding won by the NDP provincially in 1981 is far different than 2001. Socio-economic status, ethnicity, issues, everything is different. Houses sit on what was some of the best farmland in Canada in 1981. The fact is federally the NDP has not been on the landscape in Hamilton East or Stoney Creek or Lincoln, well, for a very long time.

Besides, looking at election results is not enough...you need to know what part of the riding voted for which part. In 1988, John Munro (LIB) would have won, if the riding did not include Grimsby and Lincoln. In 1990, the lower portion of Stoney Creek went Liberal, not NDP, but the riding as a whole went to the NDP.
The lower city of Stoney Creek is a Liberal heartland, save and except for the downtown (Tory) and Roxborough (NDP). The Greenhill/Mount Albion area, except for a few NDP and Conservative Polls, is Liberal. In Hamilton East, the Rosedale neighbourhood is solidy Liberal (and an area where Valeri was successful in selling a lot of Liberal Party Memberships). The NDP will probably be successful in the northern flank of Hamilton East riding which is going Liberal.
I have been involved in enough campaigns to know rhetoric....NDP headquarters may be announcing that they are putting a lot of resources into the riding, but of course they are going to say that. But the numbers do not add up for them. The fact is this....the NDP got less than 10% of the vote last time. Sure they are energised, but you need VOTERS.
25/05/04 Justice Jack
Email: [hidden]
This will be the most interesting riding in the country. If the Liberal infighting between Copps and Valeri had not been so public and so bitter, I would have said that this would be a safe seat. However, when the Liberals willingness to air their dirty laundry in public is combined with steel peaking as an issue in Hamilton, and Eisenberger running as the conservative candidate, this riding is now up in the air. I think that this will rely on two things, whether Eisenberger can take conservative votes away from Valeri and whether Stelco's troubles can help labour can retake its prominent role in politics (see Dick Gephardt’s run for President). In the end, this will be the riding that I will be watching the closest on election night. I do see anti-Liberal sentiment, the splitting of the conservative vote and the fact that Tony Depaulo is a candidate with strong community ties being the deciding factor in a very close three way race.
25/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Tony Valeri's dead...or is he outside, looking in? A real oddity is that the NDP isn't such an "inevitable" threat in Tequila Sheila's sorta-successor riding...*and* the Conservatives are, contrary to what one might imagine, competitive (albeit in an opposition-split way) as well. (If this were an Ontario seat, it might have gone Mike Harris PC in 1995 or even 1999--assuming that ex-Hamilton East constituents might have been more inclined to vote PC had they felt the PCs had a chance in their turf.) Which actually leaves Valeri better positioned than if his seat were more "inner city" a la Copps--it depends which way some of those ultra-Euro-ethnic ultra-Liberal suburban polls in Stoney Creek swing (if at all). Besides, the Stoney Creek-area NDP machine's been depleted since the days of Ian Deans; they lost particularly badly here in 1995's anti-Rae sweep, and 2003's "Howie swing" was scarcely felt hereabouts. However, don't discount the Xtopherson/Horwath ! spillover momentum in a seat which, in part, overlaps Horwath's. (Especially if disgruntled Coppsites default in that direction.) Or alternately, the CPC spillover momentum from the *other* end (Hudak, Allison etc). Oh, and "old" Stoney Creek's Red Tory enough to be, in fact, more NDP-friendly than the last quarter century of SC megaburbs rolling their way eastward. So, things continue to look interesting here--but not in the way one would assume, and certainly in a subtler way than the whole Valeri vs Copps debacle. An under-40% winning mandate wouldn't surprise me...
23/05/04 Peter Cassidy
Email: peterjcassidy@yahoo.com
I am glad to see a lot of objective analyis of this key riding. In that spririt let me share what I see, starting with the fact that the NDP has generally been more than competive in the provincial riding of Hamilton East and the predecessor provincial ridings of Stoney Creek and the Tories cannot be completely ruled out.
Hamilton East provincially has been held by the NDP and CCF before it for most of the last fifty years (the exception being Dominic in the period 1995-2003- and Bob Sutton for the NDP got almost 30% in 2003) and was re-taken by the NDP ovewhelmingly in the recent by-election with over 60% of the vote. Of course a lot of those who voted NDP in Hamilton East provincialy for Bob Mackenzie and Bob Sutton voted Liberal federally for John Munro and Shelia Copps. but the NDP generally got a good chunk of vote federally as well. Now that the "left liberal " option of John and Sheila is gone, with Sheila publicly talking of Tony Valieri and Paul Martin conspiring to throw her out and talking ofabout running for the NDP, d the move of a large chunk of Liberals to Andrea Horwath in the by-election held one week before the expected federal election, and the extemely negative reaction to the provincial Liberal budget, I predict the NDP will solildy take the Hamilton East portion of HESC. The Tories in different guises (Reform/Alliance/PC have gotten a reasonable chunck of votes federally in Hamilton East. In fact a Conservative ( of Italian background) held the seat before John Munro.So look to something like NDP 50%, Liberals 30% and Conservative (and Green) 20% in the Hamilton East portion of HESC.
On the Stoney Creek side Ian Deans of the NDP held Wentworth riding (predecssor to Stoney Creek) for a while as did Colin Issacs. Sharon Lehnert did fairly well in the mid to late '80s losing once to Liberal Shirly Collins and once to Tory Trevor Petttit. Then Mark Morrow held Wentowrth East from 1990 to 1995. It shold be noted that along wth Pettit provincially Shirley Martin of the PC's held the federal riding of Lincoln in the 1988 election denying John Munro a comeback. John credited the NDP with his loss saying the NDP (at about 20%) was stronger than he expctcted Given Tony DePaulo of the NDP lives in the Stoney Creek portion of the riding (and Tony Valeri does not live in HESC at all), has an appeal to the respectable chunk of Italian voters that normally would vote fairly solidly Liberal and has an appeal to the respectable chunk of Ssteelworkers and pensioners there, expect the NDP to be at least competitive in the Stoney Creek portion of the riding. Given the Tory base in this areas and the strong appeal of Fred Eisenberger against the conservative Tony Valieri ( who urged PCS to join the Libeals to defeat Shelia Copps) expect about a three way split in the Stoncy Creek portion of HESC.
Prediciton for HESC Tony DePaulo NDP 40% to 45%, Tony Valeri Lib 30% to 35%, Fred Eisenberger PC (and Green) 20 to 25%. I think it is time this riding was called for the NDP.
The new COMPAS poll out today finally convinced me that this one is in fact going Conservative. They have a good canidate in Fred, the more populous Stoney Creek area will NOT vote NDP, and let's face it, Hamilton East was a Shelia/Dominic riding, not a Liberal one. Add the soap opera we all just endured and you'll find that the Liberals are actually without a solid geographic base this time (the provinicial results from the last three terms are quite telling in Stoney Creek). The question in my mind now is whether the Liberals will achieve second place or not...
17/05/04 Mate
Email: [hidden]
In response to DL:
The eastern half of Stoney Creek is actually still farmland (or vacant land). The older half of Stoney Creek is actually not a "lower middle class area".....they are doing quite well. The old towne of Stoney Creek is actually a Tory bastion, not an NDP one.
As for previous NDP history from 1967 to 1981, it is like tracing Missisauga's voting history. Even 1981 predates the rise of "Tony" Creek. Nearly one-third of Stoney Creek is Italian - they weren't there in such numbers in 1981, nor were the Croatians, or other ethnic Europeans who are staunch Liberals.
That being said, there are SOME NDP pockets - the Roxbourough Avenue area in Stoney Creek (not the Hamilton one, this one is the area near Gray Road, north of Hwy 8)....in East Hamilton (again the old Stoney Creek riding), there are a couple of polls scattered in the Albion Road/Greenhill avenue.....maybe 6 or 7 polls out of 35 or 40 in the area - the NDP has not won them in a long time, but they still do better than average there.
In the soon to be old Hamilton East, there are pockets as well. But the part of Hamilton East that is going into HESC is the least NDP friendly part of Hamilton East.
People outside of Hamilton seem to think that everyone here is pissed that Copps is not the candidate - this is clearly not so. Even local newspapers reported in Hamilton East, there were a number of people who wanted a change from Copps. In Stoney Creek, there are no Liberals who are screaming that they want Copps instead of their old MP.
The NDP would be well advised to funnel their resources in winnable ridings and skip this one.
15/05/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
Just a point of information. There actually some NDP history in Stoney Creek. It was the core of the old provincial riding of Wentworth which was a super safe NDP seat from 1967 to 1981 under Ian Deans. It also went NDP by a wide margin in 1990. I don't know Hamilton at all, but I suspect that the eastern older half of Stoney Creek is a Scarborough like lower middle class suburban area that - in a good year - can indeed be fertile ground for the NDP.
That being said, I think that Hamilton Centre is now a lock for the NDP federally, while Hamilton East-Stoney Creek will be more of a toss-up.
15/05/04 Justin
Email: [hidden]
This riding is going Liberal.
However significant Andrea's victory may be for the provincial NDP, such a victory will not be repeated in the new riding (and like someone said earlier, Hamilton East and HESC are NOT the same riding).
Sure Andrea won, she won with something like 30% of the people actually bothering to vote. The Hamilton East portion of the city of Hamilton has very low turnout rates....municipally, provincially and federally. The Stoney Creek and the East Hamilton (that part of Hamilton that was in the Stoney Creek riding) have much higher rates of voter turnout. These areas are Valeri's strong areas.
Team Valeri already has a campaign headquarters, the election team is already in place and they are doing well in the fundraising department. Eisenberger, the Conservative Candidate is far less organised, with top Conservatives abandoning the party in order to help Valeri in the nomination battle (it was kind of like a Stoney Creek nationalist moment...see previous post on this).
As for Tony DePaulo.....outside of local 1004, nobody knows him. Hamilton has 500,000 people. Stelco is huge but it has something like 5,000 workers in Hamilton - assuming all of them live here. Hamilton also has lower than average unionisation rates of its workforce.
If any riding should be taken by the NDP, it will be Hamilton Centre.
The Conservatives and the NDP are in a battle for second place in Hamilton East - Stoney Creek.
/05/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
Well the NDP won the bye-election by over 9,000 votes (15,000 v.s 6,000 for the Libs)! If Hamilton voters are that unimpressed with McGuinty (a left leaning Liberal) they sure as heck won't support Martin.
13/05/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
Sheila's out and Andrea's in. Federally and provincially, that is. With Horwath's stunning by-election election victory (not stunning that she won, but stunning she won by so much) and Sheila's announcement today that she will NOT be a candidate in the federal election have opened this riding wide open, setting up what could be the most interesting race in Canada. While cynics may dismiss Horwath's victory as a mere blip on the radar, that by-elections mean nothing (which may be true -- NDP support provincially in Hamilton East has rarely translated into federal support from John Munro's era onwards), it gives the NDP in Hamilton a much-needed shot in the arm. The NDP has a chance to focus anger on Stelco's problems into support for the NDP's DePaulo. However, it should also be noted that the NDP will not do well in Stoney Creek, where it doesn't have much appeal among the wealthier and ethnic voters.
This has also led to salivation on the part of some Conservatives who think that they could piggyback on probable electoral success in Stoney Creek and enough vote-splitting between the Liberals and the NDP in Hamilton East to eke out a victory. Also, it must be remembered that Fred Eisenberger represented east-end Ward 5 for several years on City Council -- he may be able to translate this into support in the east end. A Conservative representing East Hamilton, ask the naysayers? It's possible.
However, Valeri still has the edge at this time. He still has the chance to capitalize on traditional Liberal support in the riding and his own personal appeal in Stoney Creek which he has represented since 1993, as well as his position in Cabinet. However, it should also be noted that the Liberal machine in Hamilton East is seemingly in tatters after the Valeri-Copps and Ralph Agostino affairs, and a LOT of people are still angry over Sheila's being shunted aside and the poor way the whole affair was handled by Martin and the Liberal Party establishment. These are negatives against Valeri.
I'll not predict a victory for any of the parties here. Although I would be surprised if the NDP won the riding (too much Stoney Creek-based dilution of the NDP vote), it is still a possibility; the Liberals and the Conservatives, however, are the frontrunners. If I were Tony Valeri and the HESC Liberal association, I'd be concerned.
13/05/04 Matthew Hammond
Email: elektro_matty@yahoo.ca
Well, Horwath was victorious (a 2:1 margin over the Liberals) in the provincial byelection. Certainly the elation and cohesiveness of that organization will carry over to the federal election for the NDP here. The grits too are more divided than ever before and most of Sheila's old support will certainly flow to DePaulo and the NDP. While trade and 'jobs' have not become the issue here when compared to what they are in the US, when they come to the forefront the Liberals will suffer even more, particularly in this blue collar riding.
13/05/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Horwath won by a landslide last night (trivia: her 63% was the highest won by an Ontario NDP candidate since 1990).
The NDP look set to make a target out of Hamilton this year (and why not? The Liberals have seriously damaged their reputation here (both federally and provincially) of late, and the NDP's roots in the area are deep).
The ridings demographics and union ties are also a bonus for DePaulo (a very strong candidate)... it's looking as though Copps *won't* run (although if she did it would probably blow the race wide open).
My guess is that the inner city Hamilton part of the riding will vote strongly for DePaulo, while Stoney Creek will go for Valeri (although the CPC will also poll well there... and oddly enough the NDP have some history in the area provincially).
Overall the riding is *leaning* towards a Dipper pickup... and although I'm *tentatively* predicting an NDP steal it ain't a lock yet...
13/05/04 Mate
Email: [hidden]
I know that, on the heels of a convincing NDP win provincially, people might be tempted to put this into the "NDP" column. But people have to remember that "Hamilton East" and "Hamilton East - Stoney Creek" are NOT the same riding.
Let's take the 2001 Census results for average family income in each riding (both old and new).
Old ridings:
Hamilton East was $48,612
Stoney Creek was $71,852
Hamilton West was $59,772
New ridings:
Hamilton East - Stoney Creek is: $59,120
Hamilton Centre is: $52,769.
These results show that most of the lower income areas of Hamilton East, e.g., the NDP friendly areas, are going into Hamilton Centre. Even the Hamilton Spectator reported that Howarth's team is eyeing Hamilton Centre in the next election and not HESC. Stoney Creek is losing some high income areas, such as Grimsby, which never were strong for the Liberals in any event. The new riding is therefore a continuation of the lower Stoney Creek, East Hamilton (to the Red Hill Creek Valley) constiuency that Valeri has served since 1993. The new Hamilton East residents are not very fertile ground for the NDP.
While I also believe that Hamilton Centre will go Liberal in the next election, Howarth's win should be taken more seriously by Keyes rather than Valeri.
The provincial Liberals made a lot of errors in this byelection. Toronto ran the show and ran it poorly. The federal Liberals will not repeat any of those same errors in Hamilton in the upcoming election.
13/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
The NDP just won here in a provincial by-election. Quite handidly too (over 60% of the vote). I think this does translate slightly to federal politics, meaning a big boost from 9% here to over 20%, but it won't be enough. The Conservative vote here was also too little. The Liberals will remain here, but it might be closer than they think. If Sheila runs as the NDP candidate (which I dont think she will) then she will win for sure. Probably even as an independent.
13/05/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
The NDP just won the Hamilton East byelection with a whopping 64% of the vote. Two-thirds of that riding are in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. Add up the factors:
1. NDP support nationwide has gone from 8-9% to 17-19%
2. The NDP in Hamilton is going to be full of good morale and momentum after the smashing byelection win
3. The Liberals in Hamilton are demoralized and divided after the Sheila Copps fiasco and the beyelection loss
05/05/04 Jason Hou
Email: [hidden]
What happened to Shelia Copps was so bad, it will hurt the Liberal party for a long time. People always talk about a independant canditate who lost a nomination, or left their cacaus generally don't do well in elections. Even though people will feel bitter Tony Valeri, I think this one will go liberal, unless the ndp or conservatives have very strong campains.
05/05/04 Marino
Email: [hidden]
The Agostino-related meltdown in provincial Liberal circles is looking more and more likely to result in an NDP bounce in the Hamilton area, especially if Andrea Horvath emerges with a convincing win in the upcoming by-election. With a federal election likely to be called directly on the heels of that event (if not before)the local Liberals - still suffering from the hangover left from the Copps/Valeri rivalry -- will have no time to pull themselves together before going into battle again, while the NDP will be on a major high. If the Conservatives poll well in the Stoney Creek portion of the riding, the split should definitely benefit New Democrat Tony DePaulo.
All assuming Sheila stays out. If she's in, then who knows what'll happen.
04/05/04 Westminster System
Email: westminstersystem@hotmail.com
I never thought I'd say these words, but the administration is *right* to keep HESC down as too close to call, though Conservatives predictors have gotta be dreaming. The third variable to watch here is the size, nature and extent of the the likely Horwath bounce, and increasingly evident Agostino backlash - y'all hear about Sam Merulla endorsing Horwath? - from the provincial by-election.
14/04/04 Mate
Email: [hidden]
A reply to Nick: Valeri actually lives in Stoney Creek, not Grimsby...a portion of the old city of Stoney Creek is going into the Niagara-based riding of Niagara West - Glanbrook. The boundary line of his backyard is the actual border line between the two ridings....I don't think voters will say "Tony lives 20ft from the southern boundary line of the riding...I won't vote for him"....
Valeri is the only one of the candidates to get a campaign office and is reaching out to the entire membership of the riding association in order to build a strong team.
14/04/04 Alex
Email: [hidden]
It looks like Copps is running, which makes this probably the most interesting riding in Canada. The Tories got a pretty strong vote here last time(~30% combined), and the NDP didn't fare that badly. Toss in a high-ranking Cabinet minister and one of the most notable and popular MPs around, and you've got a three-way split, maybe even four, that can go in any direction. I'd love to be a fly on the wall, buzzing between campaign HQs, but I'm sure we'll get enough news coverage from the better-known flies.
13/04/04 Nick
Email: doodle@cogeco.ca
Liberal win, though I could see the NDP placing a respectable second. Had Shelia decided to run as an independant, the Conservatives might have had a chance of winning this riding by vote split. At this point, all indications point to Shelia being done with politics, and Valeri will hold onto this riding despite the fact that he actually lives in Grimsby.
08/04/04 RWA
Sheila Copps has been fading away lately. She may run for Queen's Park in a byelection, but having passed up so many other opportunities to allow everyone involved to escape with their dignity intact, she seems pretty set upon a doomed independent candidacy. It will be another bruising battle and again Valeri, with the strength of "Team Martin" behind him will win.
05/04/04 Peter Cassidy
Email: peterjcassidy@yahoo.com
The NDP candidate is Tony DPaulo, area coordinator fro the United Steelworkers. DePaulo has been fighting for steelworkers and others jobs and pensions for some time now, an extremely important issue in this riding with plants like Slater, Camco, Levi Stuass closing and Stelco seeking creditor protection. He intends to take Tony Valeri on over steel issues, specifically how little Valeri has done in his role as chair of the Steel caucus. Ther is going to be a strong pitch to supporters of Sheila Copps (remember by official party count almost half the Liberal members in this riding voted for Sheila in the nomination battle) and inroads made into the Italiam community. Given the Hamilton East provincial by-election has to be called within 6 months and is key to the Ontario NDP winning back offical party status, this riding (and Hamilton centre) are going to be high high priority for the NDP.
01/04/04 Justin
Email: [hidden]
Definitely Liberal...
At a time when Sheila Copps had the sympathy of the press, her polling numbers were very poor compared to Valeri. In a January COMPAS poll residents of Hamilton East-Stoney Creek were asked whether they would vote for Valeri as the Liberal Candidate or Sheila Copps as the NDP candidate. 54% of voters would vote for Valeri, 34% for Copps as the NDP candidate and 11% for a conservative candidate. While a large chunk of Liberal voters would go for Copps, a large portion of NDP voters - 36% would abandon the NDP and vote Liberal. Even 30% of Conservatives would vote Liberal.
While the sponsorship scandal may have hurt things a bit for the Liberals, Sheila's popularity has nose-dived in the riding. If she runs as an independent, she will lose.
She will be facing a strong Liberal who has represented the majority of the riding before re-distribution. Facing Eisenberger as the Conservative will hurt her more than Valeri because he comes from the same area as her...they will split the Hamilton East vote at best.....a constituency with a very low voter turnout compared to Stoney Creek.
Furthermore, Eisenberger is a total unknown in Stoney Creek. And at a time when the sensitivities of Stoney Creekers, particularly tory-leaning Stoney Creekers is high considering their recent swallow up by Hamilton and the "swallow up" of the riding into Hamilton, the traditional Conservative vote in Stoney Creek is not warm to a Hamilton city boy trying to wrestle the riding from a Stoney Creeker.
The Liberal riding association has more Conservative members counted among its 11,000 members than the Conservative riding association has in total(it only has 350 members).
If given the choice between Ottawa inhabitant Sheila Copps and unknown Fred Eisenberger and Stoney Creek resident and Cabinet Minister Tony Valeri, they will vote for Tony Valeri.
30/03/04 Marto
Email: [hidden]
This race all comes down to Copps. IF Sheila Runs - I think she will take it due to her personal popularity. If Copps stays out of this race Valeri will win this in a local landslide. Either way it will stay in "Liberal" hands. One other interesting point - If Sheila runs and wins - and Paul Martin is reduced to a Minority or worse - Does Sheila not stand to gain immense power within the Liberal Party again? Interesting and somewhat scary thought
29/03/04 Mate
Email: [hidden]
While Eisenberger makes an interesting candidate, it should be remembered that he is a total unknown in Stoney Creek. He was an alderman in only a very small portion of the new riding. Eisenberger did very poorly in the 2000 municipal election.
Look at the numbers, most of the Liberal voters last time voted for Valeri and not Copps and these voters certainly are not mad that Valeri will continue to represent them.
The nomination battle, like all such battles, was divisive. Yet I tend to look at the positives that emerged from the race. As a life-long local resident, I can tell you that I saw people supporting Tony who would never be caught dead at a Liberal event - especially in the heart of downtown Stoney Creek, which is old Tory territory.
The Stoney Creek News, again not known for Liberal Party support, rallied behind Valeri.
It was actually funny, and very few observers outside the area picked this up, that Valeri became a lightening rod for Stoney Creek nationalists. They rallied behind them, mad that Stoney Creek was disappearing into a more Hamilton-based riding.
Furthermore, though Sheila had a large number of voters, they were concentrated in one major ethnic group that represents maybe 2% of the riding's population - Tony's support cut across all groups and actually reflected the general population of Hamilton East - Stoney Creek.
MOST people in the riding are happy to see Sheila go and will reward the Liberal party for selecting the right candidate.
There was a poll done in January, when Sheila first made her big fuss about all this and the poll found that most residents in the riding wanted Tony Valeri as their MP. More Liberal preferred Tony as well.
Tony has a strong team, and they are ready to fight in this upcoming election.
25/03/04 Jer
Email: jer@jerscape.ca
I understand that the Conservatives have Fred Eisenberger running as a contestant in their nominaton race. Hamilton East, Copp's old riding had a fairly high conservative vote last time at about 30%. Throw in Stoney Creek, and Fred Isenberger's name recognition and the conservatives have a realistic chance of winning. If Copps decides to run as an independent, and pulls support away from Valeri, the conservatives will take this one.
24/03/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
Well, tragically, it appears sitting Hamilton East Liberal MPP Dominic Agostino suddenly passed away today. I'm not sure how, or even if, it will change the federal landscape here but it may boost the Liberals.
20/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
A poll out this morning says the NDP would win this seat. While this defies logic, you cant argue with numbers. I am moving this out of the "Copps" catagory into the 'Too Close To Call' one.
20/03/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
If Sheila runs as an independent, this becomes a FOUR-way race. If not, Valeri will take it easily. Too close to call, for now.
19/03/04 MP
Email: [hidden]
Stoney Creek won't vote NDP. The only chance they have is if Sheila runs as an independent and splits the vote. Even then, Valeri should win by a bit, picking up support from more conservatively-oriented voters who may vote Liberal if they sense that there is a strong possibility the NDP may suceed.
17/03/04 ESP
Email: [hidden]
This one is totally scrambled in the wake of the Copps-Valeri shootout. On the surface it looks like a Liberal hold, but if the NDP runs a strong candidate alot of disgruntled Liberals might go that way and the result could be anyone's guess. An NDP win is possible, but so is a Conservative victory if the right does well in the Stoney Creek portion of the riding while the NDP bleeds Valeri in Hamilton proper. The picture will be still murkier if Copps runs as an independent. This will be one to keep an eye on.
17/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
When you look at the redistributed votes here and in Niagara West-Glanbrook, which contains the other part of the old Stoney Creek riding, it's easy to see why Tony Valeri picked this riding to run in; here he has a chance to win.
17/03/04 Craig
What Sheila Copps does here will determine the outcome. If she does not run, Valeri will steer the Liberal ship to a wide victory. If she runs as a New Democrat, she should win narrowly. If she runs as an independent with the NDP and Conservatives working with a natural base in the 22-26% range, this could be a 4-way race! Stay tuned, this will get interesting!
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Shelia Copps will win this riding if she runs as an independent easily. Her name is all over the city, the sports teams play in an arena named "Copps" New Democrats will vote for her, and Tories will to just to upset the Liberals. I dont see any problem Mrs.Copps would have in winning her riding back.
15/03/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
In the early going, one of the most interesting ridings in Canada. The wild card here is Sheila Copps. Should Copps step aside and not run in the election, Tony Valeri should have a pretty easy ride in this riding. If Copps does decide to run as an Independent, there is a chance for either the Conservatives or the NDP to come up the middle, as Copps has the potential to split the Liberal vote with Valeri.

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