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Hamilton Mountain
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:17 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:29 PM 21/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Chris Charlton
Tom Jackson
Paul Lane
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Jo Pavlov
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Beth Phinney

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Hamilton Mountain (93.2%)
Beth Phinney
Hamilton West (6.8%)
Hon. Stan Keyes
Stoney Creek (0.0%)
Hon. Tony Valeri

2000 Result/Résultats:
24,307 51.58%
10,177 21.60%
7,731 16.41%
4,588 9.74%
320 0.68%

Hamilton Mountain
(208/212 polls, 77283/77417 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Hamilton West
(15/235 polls, 5635/71333 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Stoney Creek
(5/210 polls, 35/77857 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 To The Max
Today, the Post named this riding the "most average" in the country; therefore by this token, it's outcome is very important. I lived in this area as I grew up, and went home yesterday. The west side, the Italian neighbourhood, has long been a Liberal stronghold. Driving through my own survey, which is on the west tip of this area, I saw only two Liberal signs. The Conservatives had 12 and the NDP placed 6. Either people are being very secretive, they're undecided, or those traditional Liberal roots will not be voting/voting for someone else this election.
There's been a lot of speculation over the last few months here on this site, and I've enjoyed it. Polls and signs aren't a sure indication of anything, but looking at the communities are; hense this site's existance. If any conclusion is to be made from my trip home, it is that the traditional Liberal base is not a sure bet for Paul Martin! Therefore, I strongly see Tom Jackson taking this!
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Hamilton Mountain will see Liberal Beth Phinney off as the Tories Tom Jackson splits her right vote and Chris Charlton of the NDP takes off of her left, but since there will be more left to go around, Jackson will retain more of his vote. The Tories gain from the split that, in real life, would have them finish third plus Beth's offer to Sheila Copps for the keys to her riding without the constituent's permission so expect Tom to take advantage of the ladies in this riding electorally with an unexpected and unwelcomed victory on the Hill. Will we see the Hangman's curse come out full tilt or is that just capital punishment for those voting in this riding, wishing for what they want, but receiving what they get.
23/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Based on what I am hearing fom the riding I am going to come off the fence. All 3 Hamilton seats will go NDP. The news of Paul Martin's resurgence will backfire for the liberals here.
23/06/04 J Van
Email: [hidden]
My NDP friends are always hopeful but the reality is that they cannot possibly win this riding. Charlton's support is centralized in one part of the riding - go past south of Mohawk Rd and the further south you go she doesn't even register. I will give her the fact that she will have a strong showing - her best yet maybe. She is a very week candidate and hampered by her string of electoral defeat. Most of the NDP workers are helping out in Hamilton Centre - they want it that bad.
Liberal support seems to have a solid base in this riding meaning that they wil vote Liberal no matter what. Look for scared off leaning NDP voters to go with Phinney to keep the Alliance Conservatives out of office.
20/06/04 E.A.
Email: [hidden]
The current prediction here is just embarassing. I'm partisan so I'm calling for the NDP but I'll bet everything I own on Beth Phinney coming third here. A ten minute drive around the riding confirms it. Signs don't vote but a winning campaign simply does not let themselves be eclipsed like this by challengers. She's losing. Badly.
This is a race between Tom Jackson and Chris Charlton. Jackson has a slight edge in name recognition but there's a strong NDP base. At the end of the day, people here lean to the left. I predict that Charlton will pick up a lot of strategic anti-Tory votes from Liberals who know that time is up for Liberals on the Mountain.
18/06/04 J van
Email: [hidden]
The demographics of Hamilton Mountain are more in tune with that parts of Burlington, Halton and Oakville with the exception of the north of Fennell Ave. New housing in the upper middle and higher income family range make this riding likely to give Chris Charlton her 5th loss (2 prov, 1 municipal and 2 federal). A respectable 3rd for Chris.
As for Tom "Hangman" Jackson, he has been a photo op hungry municipal politician, crassly displaying murdered people on his council chamber office door, wearing a police badge on his jacket or his oversized pinstripe suits(looking more like a mafia don than a politcian - I think he thinks he is Italian). He is good at installing bocci courts in his ward but ignores services for families. He is popular in Ward 6 where he is untouchable municipally. Look for ward 6 to support him with him splitting the vote with Charlton in the North and Phinney in the south. People in my neighbourhood have stated that he has whined when they tell him they are voting for Phinney.
The other two wards he will duke it out with Phinney where people know Phinney's hard work on issues for seniors, health care and their personal issues like immigration and taxation. Beth and her top notch staff take care of constituents - she is a hands on MP. Not a headline grabber. Look for Phinney to clean up in 7 and 8.
Jackson a respectable 2nd, best showing for the combined Alliance-Conservatives.
17/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
With the NDP at 21 overall post-debate, they have got to move into serious contention on the Mountain, a riding they held for years both provincially and federally until the defeats of 1993 and 1995. What makes this one different is the relative strength of the Conservative vote here.
17/06/04 Justice Jack
Email: [hidden]
I think that election prediction made the call too early on this one. I thought that Jackson's reputation as a city councillor would make him a great candidate for the conservatives. However, his comment about the death penalty has signficantly hurt his campaign. I do not feel that Phinney has this one in the bag. For her to win, people will have to go to the polls on June 28th and after everything that has happened, cast their vote for a Liberal. I do think that the NDP campaign in this riding will benefit significantly from the increased NDP support in Hamilton.
12/06/04 Intiaal
Email: [hidden]
MP Beth Phinney has a bad reputation as being an ineffectual MP. Her neighbours down the escarpment have gotten to taste more success and glory as members of Cabinet. When you combine the miniscule difference (roughly 5 percent) that a popular local candidate makes during an election and plummeting Liberal numbers nationally, prepare for a Phinney loss.
Chris Charlton is a perennial candidate in this riding. She has undoubtedly knocked on all of the doors but then again so has Tom Jackson. With Jackson's recently bad press surrounding his pro-dealth penalty musings, watch Charlton gain some more support. However, will it be enough to stave off Conservative momentum? We will have to wait and see. Too close to call.
09/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
Unfortunately Chris is a chronic loser. She runs in pretty much every election at every level and always fares rather poorly. Beth Phinney could vacation in barbados during the campaign and Charlton still wouldn't have a chance. Jackson is the only threat here.
08/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
A close one. Conservatives would appear set to inherit this one. But the Charltons held this one provincially for a long time, as did the federal NDP. Three way race, the kind that ordinarily favour the NDP, when the Liberals are as weak as they are right now. If, outside Quebec, NDP vote polls in the mid-20s, the Liberals in the low 30s. In Ontario it is more like 30-25. In Hamilton it is likely a dead heat, with The Cons in there as well.
25/05/04 Justice Jack
Email: [hidden]
In Hamilton Mountain, Beth Phinney will likely be in trouble in this riding. Of all area Liberals, she by far has the lowest profile and is the most vulnerable to a shift in public trust in the Liberal brand. I think that Tom Jackson will end up winning this riding. Hamilton Mountain is not likely Conservative territory, but I think that anti-Liberal sentiment and Jackson’s high popularity as a councilor will lead him to victory. The NDP might be the deciding factor in siphoning votes away from the Liberals, especially if it’s central campaign takes off.
25/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Okay. The whole paradox of Beth Phinney, the weakest-yet-least-threatened (in theory) Hamilton Liberal. Like Irene Mathyssen in London, Chris Charlton's a bit of a perennial-NDP-candidate-albeit-with-strong-justification. Under Alexa-grade leadership, and against a strong Tory opponent like Tom Jackson, she'd have been a goner once again. But with Layton as leader and down-mountain victories in mind, even the suburbanites south of the Linc might find a "competitive" NDP a more compelling ballot-mark prospect. Toss in Jackson, and...Phinney *third*?!? Keep in mind her *first* victory in 1988: a tight 3-way, the only race that year where no candidate got 1/3 of the vote. If Martin tanks...a portent?
23/05/04 Chris Goodwin
Email: goodster@mountaincable.net
The Liberals Offering To Give Up The Hamilton Mountain Riding To Sheila, even before discussing it with her made alot of Hamilton Mountain Residence Mad. Futhermore, The Conservatives don't excist in Hamilton, Andrea Horwath won by a landslide, and Chris Charlton was just in a Provincial Election, I think the NDP will take all three Hamilton Ridings.
23/05/04 Velco lips
Email: [hidden]
There is a tectonic disturbance of great magnitude underway in the Hamilton area right now, and the Liberal incumbents from Ancaster down to Welland are all in more trouble than they have been since at least the first Mulroney landslide. Both the Conservatives and the NDP could end up feasting on Liberal carrion in the Golden horseshoe. This seat has not gone Conservative in a very long time, federally or provincially, and if the Liberals take a hit here, then the main beneficiary, and likely winner, will be the NDP's Charlton.
05/05/04 Lord Peel
Email: [hidden]
The least likely Hamilton seat to go NDP (even though it is the one that has been most recently NDP federally), but conditions might be developing for a NDP sweep of the Hamilton area - if Horvath wins provincially and Layton performs well in the federal campaign, winning NDP campaigns in neighbouring Hamilton Centre and Hamilton-East-Stoney Creek, will likely have a significant spillover effect on the Mountain. Chris Charlton might finally win one.
05/05/04 To The Max
Redistribution will be a factor in this one; H-M picks up a signicant portion of the old Hamilton-West's mountain district. The Italian area that borders Ancaster is always a safe area for the Liberals, especailly when their canidate is from that community (see the 99 election for example).
That said, the Conservatives do extremly well in the rest of the pickup area, with the NDP taking some polls in the neighbourhoods just west of West 5th.
Expect the NDP to take some votes from the Liberals in the northern portion of the East mountain, past Mohawk Ave. despite the Conservatives taking the majority of the polls in this area; remember that these are the polls that helped Jackson win his councillor's seat in the past.
The interesting area to watch, and the one that will eventually decide the outcome in this riding, will be the southern neighbourhoods that were just established in the last 10 years. Here we have a lot of younger families; families that can go either Liberal or Conservative depending on their personal situations.
It is with this in mind that I label this a "too close" riding right now, with the winner's crown going to either Jackson or Phinney.
08/04/04 Peter Cassidy
Email: peterjcassidy@yahoo.com
Tom Jackson is the Conservative Candiate and he will be a strong candidate. BethPhiney is the weak Liberal incumbent, who was ready to give the seat away to Sheila Copps. Chris Charlton is an experienced NDP candidate who will benefit from NDP central pumping resource into Hamilton to win Hamilton Centre and Hamilton East Stoncy Creek. Too close to call and maybe as close to a three way race as anywhere in Canada.
29/03/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
Odds are the Conservative candidate here is going to be longtime Hamilton councillor Tom Jackson, whose represented the Mountain seemingly forever and has a lot of name recognition going for him. If Jackson gets the Conservative nod, a good three-way race will shape up here between him and Phinney and Charlton; if he doesn't get nominated, Phinney will win.
29/03/04 AB
Email: [hidden]
I feel that the conservative candidate Tom Jackson has too much local support in the area to lose. This one time sure shot Liberal seat has become one to watch now that Mr. Jackson is running shortly after easily winning his riding in municipal election last November. I feel that the controversy over the last few months will hit Mrs. Phinney rather considering the wide range of family income in her ridng. I am a Liberal and do not doubt her ability to win but for a candidate who did not decide to run until the day of her nomination I think she is under prepared.
23/03/04 EP
Email: [hidden]
People, Mountain is the mort affluent area in Hamilton! It would be the last riding of the three to go NDP. Hamilton Centre, quite likely, Hamilton East, maybe. Not this one. Plus, Chris Charlton is a chronic loser with a worse track record than her husband.
20/03/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
Beth Phinney offered this seat to Sheila Copps, in an attempt to defuse the Copps-Valeri crisis. But Copps turned her down. In exchange for Phinney's loyalty, though, Martin stepped in to protect her from a likely nomination challenge in her own riding association. I think that shows Phinney to be a weak candidate, though. One minute she's on her way out, the next minute she's back for another kick at the can. With possible spillover momentum from Xtopherson in the Center, and the continuing soap opera in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, this might open up a Hamilton three-peat opportunity for the NDP. Will Chris Charlton finally get the parliamentary seat she has been chasing since '97?
19/03/04 MP
Email: [hidden]
Phinney will win her seat once again, however she won't win by as large a margin as last time. A bit of an invisible MP, she'll lose votes based on her poor profile and the sponsorship scandals. The NDP did well in the provincial election under Chris Charlton, garnering a bit more than 25 percent of the vote and finishing ahead of the PCs. They will improve over their poor 2000 showing, maybe even coming in second if Harper is elected leader of the Tories and confirms their image as the Alliance in all but name. Bountrogiani is a popular Liberal MPP and this will work in Phinney's favour. The Liberals will win, bt no matter who comes in second this will be a much tighter race for both the Conservatives and NDP.
19/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

With the Copps-Valeri chaos in Ham West and David Christopherson challenging Stan Keyes in Ham Centre, this will probably be the only "non-headache" seat for the Liberals in the city.

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