Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:54 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:44 AM 24/03/2004

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Susan Barclay
Bill Brown
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Carl Chaboyer
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Roger Valley

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Kenora-Rainy River (100.0%)
Hon. Robert Nault

2000 Result/Résultats:
11,497 48.27%
6,244 26.22%
4,955 20.80%
1,122 4.71%
0 0.00%

Kenora-Rainy River
(141/191 polls, 42024/54632 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Tory Bill Brown will get this one because the Gun Registry issue is still big and large and there will be a nice split between the Liberal standerbearer Roger Valley and NDP candidate Susan Barclay but if one is looking for Reform's populist democratic reform policy, don't expect Bill's Tories to do anything about it at the policy convention yet to be held for this Thanksgiving. Robert Nault couldn't pass Jean Chretien's legacy of his Indian White Paper for Assimilation against the First Nations, and failing that, has given it up to a Martinite as he knew a bad was rising. Kenora will keep the moniker Manitoba East by passing Brown by the split.
23/06/04 On the Street.....
Email: [hidden]
Well I am wondering when this prediction will change or be proven wrong. Look at the results of other elections...Although the NDP have not done that well in the past, they will when people feel that they have not been hear. Nault is not running-- he would have won. Valley will not and his on the ground campaign shows it. Paul Martin, destroyed the chances of a Liberal win.. to be frank people are pissed!.. Why treat a 15 year member of parliment as one person put as disposible... And by no mean is Susan Barcly the answer to this ridings prayers... I will say this ... even the conservatives have a chance..except the NDP have a good election machine.
The liberals will come in third!
16/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
This one will be very close. I think the NDP can and will win it. One wonders if the CPC can best the Aliance-Tory vote of 30 per cent. Most of this was Alliance. But most polls have Harper below the combined vote. NDP vote has almost tripled across Ontario from 8 to 22. Where is this happening? In places where the NDP vote has efficacy. They will go from 20 to 40 and win it. The Liberal votes, will -- have to -- fall off, especially with no incumbent. Do they go CPC or NDP? that is the big question. NDP represents it provincially by a huge margin. Prediction NDP 40 ;liberal 30 ; CPC 29
15/06/04 Resisting the Borg Collective
Email: [hidden]
All reports from the riding say that it is time to move this one from a Liberal win to "Too Close to Call" or perhaps an NDP win. The local Liberal machine has bailed in the wake of Paul Martin's mistreatment of Bob Nault. They are sitting on their hands or wandering off in a different direction. Looks like the "disposable crew member" was not so disposable after all....
10/06/04 Morson Pelican feeder
Email: [hidden]
I think the Libs have this one in the bag.
But I think this will be the last sure thing for a while, there seems to be a slow shift away from the libs in the First Nations vote this time.
It is not such a sure thing anymore, Nault is Gone. The Partys all know it. The Libs did not deal well with the First Nations Candidate hopefuls they had competing to run. and this is playing out badly for them. the NDP is trying to corral the First Nations vote under their Tent, But The Candidate from Grassy Naorrows actually sought out the Greens and the candidate they had there stepped aside to give him room to run.
I think the First Nations votes will carry great weight in several directions, but will become the voice of the Greens in Kenora. The NDP will have to balance the lumber company Union Vs. Aboriginal interests (which I think is the reasn Grassy Narrows is Green not Red or Orange)
04/06/04 Bee's Knees
Email: [hidden]
Susan Barclay has this one in the bag. Not only is she getting an amazing reception at the door but she has First Nations people supporting her like there's no tomorrow. The Liberal and Conservative candidates are from Dryden so they will split the vote. Susan ran in the last election which has given her name recognition. She's a community worker and Minister. She knows the issues of the local community and has constantly been in the paper for her activism over the years. This is all Susan all the time.
02/06/04 Foirmer Resident
Email: [hidden]
This one should be too close to call.
The Kenora riding has a strong tendency to return incumbents, both federally and provincially. With Nault stepping down the race becomes wide open.
In 1984 the Liberal incumbent John Reid retired in part because he could not get along with the new leader. Reid was a strong incumbent and at the outset the Liberals felt they were a shoo in. However, when the votes were counted the Conservative candidate lost to the NDP candidate by 400 votes. The NDP candidate received 99 % of the votes from the Northern reserves and but for those votes the Progressive Conservative Candidate would have won. Additionally, the PC Candidate bled over a thousand votes to a Christian Heritage Candidate.
This election is very different as there is no Christian Heritage candidate, Mr. Fox's has pledged to deliver votes to Valley, and the Green Party Candidate is from the Grassy Narrows Reserve. So it is not guaranteed that Barclay will receive as much of the aboriginal vote as she would expect. As well, the NDP usually receive a large number of union votes from the paper mills in Dryden and Kenora. However, as happened with Harris in 1993, when the electorate wants to "kick the bums out" the swing votes go to the party most likely to replace the Government. So the some of the union vote could go to Brown as a protest.
So, Brown has a number of factors working in his favour, while Valley and Barclay may suffer erosion of their traditional base of support. Brown may be able to ride the wave of voter discontent to Ottawa.
01/06/04 Former resident
Email: [hidden]
This one should be too close to call. In 1984 the Progressive Conservatives lost by only 400 votes and the NDP candidate received over 95 % of the votes from the Northern native reserves. Without those votes the Progressive Conservative candidate would have won.
The PC Candidate also bled many votes to a strong Christian Heritage candidate. There is no Christian Heritage candidate this time.
This election is very different because Mr. Fox has promised to deliver native votes to Valley. It remains to be seen whether that prommise will hold true. Mr. Nault's proposed changes to the Indian Act were controversial and likely lost the Liberals some votes. As well, the Green Party candidate is from the Grassy Narrows Reserve so the NDP should lose some votes there and Ms. Barclay cannot now rely upon receiving a traditional large block of votes.
As this campaign has developed, all of the elements that lead to the Mulroney sweep are present; voter discontent with an old regime, the Liberals cannot stem party infighting, the Liberal campaign is unfocussed, and the public has antipathy around politicians in general. This works against Valley. The NDP usually receive significant support from the unionized workers in the mills in Dryden and Kenora. However, as happened with Mike Harris in 1993, when there is large public discontent with the party in power, the union vote emulates the general public. Unless there is a strong incumbent candidate the swing votes go to the party most likely to replace the previous government. Bill Brown could ride that wave of discontent to Ottawa.
26/05/04 Hillcrester
Email: [hidden]
There are real issues about the prediction panel's weighting of public submissions if Kenora is down as Liberal. Of the 13 comments posted at the time of this writing, a whole one is a Liberal perdiction. And AndrewB is right; Kenora-Rainy River has only gone not-Liberal once in recent history, it was taken in 1984 by a New Democrat: like Susan Barclay, this NDP candidate was a prominent community member who contested the seat unsuccessfully before winning it, and like 2004, he took it in an election when the Conservatives were gaining votes at the Liberals' expense. He's also right (by definition, duh) that this was pre-Nault; in fact it was the last MP before Nault. And now, we are post-Nault.
Without declaring a prediction, my feeling is that the NDP has a better shot here than the Conservatives... I get the impression that the PC/CA organizational core of K-RR was lost to redistribution, and that there is potential for a big NDP swing in the Native communities. All in all, though, it depends on the final swing of the campaign.
This should be TCTC.
26/05/04 OneandOnly
Email: [hidden]
NDP with strong support??? Give me a BREAK!!! (I guess if you don't beat your own drum...) As a resident of Dryden for more than 20 years, progressive Valley is by far more liked than Brown who did his best to keep the town as small and conservative as possible by rejecting bldg. permits and expansion plans by companies for years! This riding will not be between Kenora and Dryden as previous posters have commented, because the aboriginal vote generally favours Liberal, and Charles Fox (Valley's former opponent) has promised to deliver. The NDP support always came from the south end of the riding, which has now been chopped off, with sprinkles in the other towns. The only reason Hampton wasn't turfed in the first place is because of his leadership status. The vote does not transfer here.
25/05/04 Thorfinn
Email: [hidden]
This a bet that the Liberals are about to run into a very unpleasant early summer surprise - Kenora's default setting is Liberal, but in off years like 1984, and very, very possibly 2004, this region comes into play. If this is one of those years, then the advantage goes to the NDP to benefit from Liberal misfortunes. The New Democrats took about 20% of the vote here in 2000 (when they got 8% nationally) and they are running the same candidate from that year, the energetic minister Sue Barclay. Add the strong Ontario NDP presence in this corner of the province and the heavy organizational and cultural spillover from NDP-run Manitoba right next door, and I think this adds up to a pickup for the NDP, if conditions are right.
23/05/04 frank
Email: [hidden]
This election will be between the Conservatives and the NDP.. Who winns the split is the Question? Although in the past the Liberals have won; this election is different. Bill Brown is very popular in Dryden and he will split the vote with Valley. Valley was counting on a huge turnnout in Dryden but Brown will split that vote. The NDP have a stong election machine, and if it is as good as the last provinicial election, the NDP could possibly even win Dryden because of the split. the Kenora vote will again split between all three parties simply because no one who is running is from Kenora. Nothing personal, but, Roger Valley is really not up to this kind of work, and does not have what it takes. This also will turn out to be a Dryden-Kenora issue and the winner will not be the Liberals. The Liberals lost a good member of Parliment, like him or not, Robert Nault was tough and good .. This election will see a new member of Parliment and it will not be Liberal
23/05/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
The NDP will win here for the following reasons. There is no Liberal incumbent so it is wide open. The NDP did respectably here with the same candidate during the 2000 blow-out. The NDP support across Ontario has more than doubled since the last election. The Liberals are sinking like a stone. On top of that, Howard Hampton was reelected here with over 60% of the vote in October and you can sure he will pull out all stops to get his good friend Sue Barclay elected federally.
06/05/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Although Kenora is a traditional Liberal seat, things have changed in Northern Ontario... Elections Canada should have re-named Kenora "Manitoba East"... it's a typical Canadian/Laurentian (take your pick) Shield seat with lots of lakes, a large First Nations population and more wealth underground than on top of it...
Although initially I thought that the removal of Rainy River would kill any Dipper hopes of a pickup (and no... I don't think that the Reformatories will win here) that was before I had a look at the Re-distributed results... any seat in Ontario where the NDP won over 20% in 2000 becomes an automatic NDP target in 2004. And if Layton can get Howie to campaign here as well as in Thunder Bay-Rainy River that might seal it... although the Grits have a better chance in Kenora than in Howie Country proper.
02/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Even if recent results and the Cheryl Gallant experience suggests a Precambrian right-populist wave in Ontario, don't get too zealous with the Tory predictions--all the reserves in the far north will surely damper CPC chances, to the point where it'll take a 3-way split to elect'em in Kenora; and besides, the C-68 gun issue ain't as smokin' as it was in '97 and '00. And even if Layton's a city slicker and Howie Hampton's "real" Rainy River home turf's been turfed out of the seat, as long as they're next door to Manitoba and the Doer/Blaikie energy, the NDP absolutely remains in contention, esp. w/Susan Barclay already sitting on a 20% base from '00...
24/04/04 Jer
Email: [hidden]
It may not have gone conservative for a while but there is no time like the present. Bill brown is equally as popular as Roger Valley and he is going to take away some core support right in valley's home turf. I won't discount the liberals here, they are strong undoubtedly, but Bill Brown is someone who the right leaning liberals can vote for and with the increasingly deeper and vaster mire that this Sponsorship scandal is becoming, they have ample reason to.
22/04/04 AndrewB
Email: [hidden]
This riding is solid Liberal. Has been since the 1920's... until today. Only once has the riding not gone Liberal, and that was during the Mulroney years, pre-Nault. Valley is VERY popular and will win the seat no problems.
19/04/04 GM
Email: [hidden]
I think there are many factors that made the 2000 election misleading in how close this riding actually is.
First of all, Robert Nault, for all his shortcomings, was a cabinet minister. That in itself is going to garner votes as NorthWestern Ontario is always short-changed in terms of representation. This time though, people who voted for Nault won't necessarily blindly vote for Valley.
Secondly, the opposition parties were in disarray in 2000. The Alliance had Prefontaine, who really wasn't all that good, and the PCs had some school teacher who didn't even really campaign. In actuality, previous results such as 97 should be highlighted: the combined right-wing vote was about 37% and that was when some student (who again wasn't really campaigning) was running for the PCs while Nault polled 40% overall. This riding stands the chance of giving over 40% to a Conservative candidate.
Finally, Bill Brown is no slouch. He's a 3 term councillor from Dryden who stands a really good chance at taking down his former town political colleague. As far as it's concerned, the timing is right: the Liberals are the weakest, the Conservatives are united, and the right man is running for the job. This one is going to be extremely close, but Bill Brown will sneak this one out.
27/03/04 Jer
Email: jer@jerscape.ca
In 1984 the Conservatives came within less than a thousand votes of taking it and all through the Davis era, the riding was represented by provincial Conservative Leo Bernier. Many people who voted for the NDP back in the 80's, the labour vote, have voted for the Reform/Alliance party the last few elections largely because of gun control and the parties populist/democratic reform leanings. Jack Layton is a urban guru, and this is a region where everyone refers to Southern Ontario collectively as "Toronto," and not out of fondness. Howard Hampton was elected because he's a good MPP and a party leader, not because the NDP have winning levels of support in Northwestern Ontario, especially not federally.
26/03/04 Mike Walchuk
Email: mikewalchuk@yahoo.ca
Actually the "right" got 37.5% of the vote in ’97. I think the NDP will do better in this election - I would say low 30% which would be an increase of +10%, I can’t see those voters being taken form any party other then the Liberals, so lower the Liberal vote to mid 30’s. If the Conservatives nominate someone moderate as their local candidate (like Bill Brown), they might be able to take it. But I’d have to say it is too close to all at this point, a three-way race.
24/03/04 Hansen
Email: [hidden]
Jer, the combined right wing vote in 2000 may have been 30%, but that's also the ceiling for the right in this part of the world. Odds are this will be a Liberal hold, but if there is an upset look for it to come from the NDP not the Harper-led Conservatives.
24/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
you have to go back to 1917 before you find a Conservative who won this riding. In fact, from 1892, there have only been 5 Conservatives elected. in 1921 this riding even put a Progressive into the House. The NDP has held the riding once, in 1984, and the 1984 election was their best election ever in Ontario. Looking at recent polls, and predicting for movement and momentum, we may be seeing another huge election for the NDP in Ontario. Assuming that, I have to put this traditional Liberal riding into the NDP's pocket.
23/03/04 Jer
Email: jer@jerscape.ca
The combined Conservative vote in this riding is over 30%, there is a strong rural conservative base and both candidates so far are from towns (one from Kenora the Other from Dryden) which are the Liberals base of support. Bill Brown is a councillor from Dryden who is just as popular as former Dryden mayor Roger Valley (the Liberal Candidate) He has been re-elected to Council multiple times and was first elected when he was 21. If he is the Candidate he will steal some serious support from the Liberals, more than enough to push him to Victory.

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