Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:40 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:47 PM 18/03/2004

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PC Party/Parti PC:
Derrall Bellaire
Irene Mathyssen
John Mazzilli
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Ed Moore
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Pat O'Brien
Cameron Switzer

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
London-Fanshawe (100.0%)
Pat O'Brien

2000 Result/Résultats:
19,537 54.87%
7,892 22.16%
4,094 11.50%
4,084 11.47%
0 0.00%

(187/187 polls, 71061/71061 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
London Free Press poll gives the edge to O'Brien. If he wins this London seat, the other London seats will also likely remain red.
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Conservatives have John Mazzilli but his profile has been low, while his brother's has been high, the Progressive Canadian candidate might make a difference on the right but so will the NDP on the left so London-Fanshawe should stay Pat O'Brien as university and church do mix here but won't.
24/06/04 Jeffery Bennett
Email: [hidden]
Free Press/New PL poll of London ridings show this one to be the largest Liberal Lead. O'Brien over Mathyssen 35-31 with the Tories trailing at 28%. Forecasting O'Brien will hang on by a thousand votes or so.
24/06/04 Hieronymous
Email: [hidden]
London Fanshawe is just "Too Close to Call" The poll released this morning by the London Free Press and the New PL supports this.
I see the NDP squeaking out a win here with Layton coming into town one last time. I thought all along that Pat O'Brien may have the loyalest of Liberal voters so thought his seat safest of the London seats prior to this poll now I am just not so sure. Mazilli is a decent candidate for the CPC but I think the other two overshadow him.
23/06/04 Arzie Chant
Email: achant@uwo.ca
O'Brien is virtually the epitome of right-wing. I am unsure how he calls himself a Liberal. With that in mind, he'll handily pluck right wing support from Mazilli, who wasn't a strong candidate to begin with (despite his brother's incumbency). London-Fanshawe is not as right-wing as Pat thinks though, and as a result, he has left himself open to be dominated by Irene. With a strong campaign, a well-known name and her being the only left-wing game in town, Irene is about to put Pat O'Brien out of his misery.
Aside from Irene's own work though, much of her victory will be owed to O'Brien. O'Brien has become a master of division in recent months. His insulting and narrow-minded stance on same-sex marriage has lost him the support of many Liberals and anyone else on the left. In addition, his Chretien bashing has ensured that even more Liberals will not only refuse to help him, but are waiting in anticipation to see him unseated. Add to this the present day Liberal Party difficulties and Mr. O'Brien will be working on his resume come the morning of June 29th.
21/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
PC candiadate should stop the CPC from going over the top. Liberals weak here. Mathyssen is a very credible candidate, almost won provincially with the NDP at 17 per cent, now they are at 18-26 in Ontario the polls say. Could NDP win it with 32 per cent? Not so far out on a limb with this one.
15/06/04 Webdaddy
Email: [hidden]
A bit on Ramal, then on to O'Brien. Webmaster, please indulge me:
1. Ramal speaks 5 languages, and is working on a PhD in social politics. Intellectually and in terms of personal integrity, he is an exceptional person.
2. There was little if any controversy re: Ramal's nomination... I'm not sure where you're getting that from. He worked incredibly hard and won the nomination decisively. Polhill's a good guy, but he lost fair-and-square. He's come to accept that; I hope anyone who still entertains notions to the contrary gets over it to.
3. There was no "mixed blessing" in Ramal's nomination. As an M.P.P. he is accessible far beyond his old core support. He is a rising star in the OLP and is well-liked by members of other parties.
4. I won't pretend to understand Irene, but she just keeps plugging away. She'll do better here in London-Fanshawe in terms of votes than if she ran in Ilderton, the town she represented in her M.P.P. days about a million years ago and where she makes her home.
The diversity of this riding is its greatest strength as a community, but poses enormous challenges for a "first past the post" Westminster model democracy. Clearly, a huge majority of votes somewhere in the mix between Kilally Woods and White Oaks is very hard to achieve. Through his distinguished record of public service and his candor - regardless of anyone's feelings about the Party or Leader - O'Brien has earned respect and the privilege of another term in office.
Scroll down for gains to be made by the Dippers and Tories. My prediction stands.
12/06/04 Numbers
Email: t@st.com
London-Fanshawe is not even close to having the largest Arab or Muslim community in Canada. Using 2001 statcan data, it ranks in 50th place for proportion of Muslims (about 3,900, 3.6% of riding -- top riding is Don Valley West with 13%), and is home to about 2,500 Arab Canadians. I don't think such small numbers will count for that much on June 28th.
09/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
2003 comparisons are strained indeed, as the McGuintyites took London-Fanshawe a little by default; Khalil Ramal was nominated under controversy and was considered a mixed blessing as a Grit standard-bearer. (Unfortunate as it is to say, his non-European stock and uncertain English proficiency didn't help matters.) Mathyssen came close, but one wonders whether her figure was "juiced up" by Ramal's perceived deficiencies--and the same goes for defeated PC incumbent Frank Mazzilli, who may have been the only PC incumbent in third place but *still* managed a higher % than the far more illustrious Dianne Cunningham next door! In this working-class end of London, Mathyssen's perennial candidacy is not without purpose or promise--and of course, if you think anti-Ramal sentiment affected her 2003 result, imagine what anti-Martin sentiment can do. Unfortunately for her, the same can be said on behalf of *John* Mazzilli. Imagine if, coming from the *other* end, 2004! 's Fed result matches 2003's Prov result...
09/06/04 Webdaddy
Email: [hidden]
One final note... London-Fanshawe has the largest per-capita Arab and Muslim community in Canada. They voted en masse last October, and community leaders are shooting for an even larger voter turnout this time.
Given O'Brien's very public support for pro-Arab causes (he's vehemently opposed to Israel's "security wall") he can count on a massive boost when the polls in White Oaks are counted.
07/06/04 Webdaddy
Email: [hidden]
Comparisons to the 2003 Ontario campaign are strained at best. Khalil Ramal worked hard in a very tough riding to establish his reputation and earn a victory. O'Brien garnered 52% of the popular vote in 2000, winning EVERY SINGLE poll (nearly 200) in London-Fanshawe.
Pat O'Brien is a veteran campaigner and an exceptional Member of Parliament. I've spoken to him a few times on this run. He's relaxed and upbeat, despite an unpopular provincial budget and a babbling idiot at the helm of the party. Anyone voting Conservative on moral issues might as well support O'Brien - he's as traditional as they come. If only Martin would shut his pie-hole on abortion...
Liberal: 42% Conservative: 30% NDP: 25% Greens: 3%
01/06/04 AlanSmithee
Email: [hidden]
John Mazzilli speaks Italian fluently. I've heard him many times.
28/05/04 DOK
Email: [hidden]
Aside from the fact that a Mazzilli run is hilarious (he is dead in the water -wait for debates and a sound bite or to to emerge-no experience or knowledge of landscape). the fact that that end of london is Italian or Portugese is irrelevant-he can't speak italian, is not portugese and voting patterns in London are based on Windsor or 905-type ethnic voting lines...P.O.B is nearing the end of the line-so many years as a backbencher haven't provided much campaign ammo for O'Brien, so based on these factors and the momentum from the prov election -i'll take a slight win for Mathyssen.
28/05/04 mike london
Email: [hidden]
this one should be in the too close to call column. the tories finished third here in the last provincial election even though they were the incumbent. the ndp candidate almost toppled the libs, and she raised a huge amount of money too. jack layton would be foolish to not spend some time here
23/05/04 Parmenter
Email: [hidden]
Running the candidate who came close to winning last year's provincial election gives the NDP a fairly high base of support to be building from, and with the likely unpopularity of the provincial budget, Mathyssen is well positioned to win a close race. With the provincial results in mind, and the decay in Ontario Liberal fortunes since then, this will be a prime NDP target this time out. Watch for Jack Layton to visit London several times during the campaign.
11/05/04 V.D.
Email: bench_breaker@hotmail.com
Bear and Ape, to answer your question, John Mazzilli is Frank Mazzilli's brother.
02/05/04 AlanSmithee
Email: [hidden]
Another London bellwether that will probably swing on the national trends. East London is more traditionally left-wing than the rest of the city, but it's also where the Italian and Portuguese communities are centred, which plays into Mazzilli's hands. Irene Mathyssen has name recognition, but also has a "perennial loser" stigma attached to her after contesting nearly every election, provincially and federally, over the past fifteen years. Her time as an MPP under Bob Rae has been pretty much forgotten. Pat O'Brien is popular and made a bit of a name for himself by leading the anti-gay marriage Liberals on the Hill, but he's still another relatively faceless Ontario Liberal MP. As with the rest of the city, London-Fanshawe will elect an MP that will sit with the governing party, no matter what that party happens to be.
28/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Correct us if we're wrong but wasn't the Conservative MPP for London-Fanshawe FRANK Mazzilli and not John Mazzilli? We're assuming that Frank and John are close relations. If so one of the tightest races in all of Ontario.
24/04/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
I think that John Mazzilli made it a tight three-way race in 2003 and will profit from Irene's tough run...Predictions of a really close race are entirely reasonable and this riding might be the first or only one in London to go Conservative. I also just think, given the closeness, that all three candidates be predicted to win!
19/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This is one of a number of ridings in southwestern Ontario that we're surprised is listed as a Liberal win. Surely there is going to be a close race here, especially with Irene running for the NDP. She did extremly well in the provincial election and, with the current good fortunes for the NDP, will do well in the upcomming election. We don't know much of the Conservative candidate but this could be a three-way race. Certainly to close to call!
13/04/04 Chris
Email: [hidden]
The NDP is up in Ontario and this was a seat, with virtually the same boundaries, that nearly went NDP provincially in the fall (when their numbers were significantly lower province-wide) than they are now. With the same candidate that nearly won in the fall running here and a first-tier candidate (Joe Swan) running next door in London North Centre, the NDP campaign in the London area is going to be formidable. It will be close, but I think that Mathyssen will win with 35-40% of the vote.
20/03/04 Craig
A riding classic for close results, expect a carbon copy of the provincial election: a virtually even three-way race here. All three parties will be putting out their efforts here as they all battle for the same ground we saw back last October. The general trends will determine the outcome. Predicted results: Liberal 33%, NDP 32%, Conservative 32%, others 3%.
17/03/04 ABJ
The NDP nearly took this seat with more or less the same boundaries in last year's provincial election, and they are running the candidate who nearly pulled out the win, Irene Mathyssen. Expect the NDP to put major resources into this race. With the addition of a strong candidate in neighbouring London North Centre, the local NDP effort is likely to experience some major synergies. Mathyssen stands an excellent chance and with a the right conditions, London North Centre might fall to the NDP as well.
17/03/04 RWA
Email: radams2@uwo.ca
NDP candidate Irene Mathyssen very nearly won this riding provincially (and did serve it during the Bob Rae years), but is starting to look like a perennial loser candidate. Former MPP Frank Mazzili's brother will be running for the Tories, but Pat O'Brien's social conservatism cuts into Conservative support in the area. O'Brien's local popularity will send him back to Ottawa.

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