Election Prediction Project
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Mississauga-Brampton South

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:38 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:43 AM 24/03/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Navdeep Bains
David Gershuny
Parvinder Sandhu
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Paul Simas
Larry Taylor

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Brampton West-Mississauga (54.7%)
Colleen Beaumier
Mississauga Centre (15.4%)
Carolyn Parrish
Mississauga East (29.8%)
Hon. Albina Guarnieri

2000 Result/Résultats:
21,326 69.68%
4,399 14.37%
3,588 11.72%
1,011 3.30%
282 0.92%

Brampton West-Mississauga
(58/196 polls, 33932/98497 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Mississauga Centre
(24/193 polls, 9572/74228 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Mississauga East
(52/189 polls, 18477/66307 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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I grew up in this riding and although I currently live in downtown Toronto, I'm keeping an eye on this race because of nostalgia, and curiosity. Mississauga has been Liberal almost as long as I've been alive, so I'd be surprised if anything were to change that now.
That being said, I think the Conservatives might pull it off. Sandhu's ppl have been by my parents' house several times asking for support, and Bains has been invisible, at least in the part of Mississauga I'm around. Maybe he's more present in Brampton.
As for NDP, I must say I didn't like the negative tone I saw on his campaign literature. It was a little insulting - "I've been involved in politics for so long, and the two other guys are so young, that they won't know what to do, so vote for me."
AS someone in my 20s, I was insulted by that. If you ask me, I think we need less old white guys in power, so a few younger candidates might be just what we need.
I predict a Liberal squeaker because of traditional voting patterns, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if Conservatives took it.
23/06/04 Gurjit
Email: [hidden]
I was at the Bains camp and Sandhu's during the weekend and boy, what a world of a difference in thinking, campaign styling and volunteers!
Now I can see why there is so much hype about this guy Bains. He had hundreds of people going in and out of the office pulling votes out in the advance poll. When I came back on Monday night, his volunteers were overjoyed with their results of over 4000 ID liberals voting for him in the advance polls. I've heard Sandhu had the same numbers...funny, there were only about 5100 people polled!!!!
12/06/04 Nik
Email: [hidden]
From what I can tell, Sandhu has the most organized campaign, and seems to be reaching out to more of the diverse ethnic communities in the riding. Bains seems to be concentrating more on the Brampton area of the riding, where most of his South Asian support will come from. Couple that with the current Liberal slide across Ontario, this will be very close, at this point I would predict a squeaker for Sandhu.
09/06/04 Phil
Email: panderson@ekno.com
The real issue that everybody's talking about in this riding is Bains age.
Many people feel that Bains being 27 (or something) just doesn't have enough life experience just yet to represent the riding. This is a serious job that requires a thoughtful
And now (let's say it) the Martin campaign is in shambles and with credible Sandhu (If Martin was doing well then the prediction could change).
I do think the NDP is ahead in this riding above thier provincial polling results.
05/06/04 MF
Email: [hidden]
There are some deluded people here - it's time for a reality check. First, it's "Barrie", not "Barry". Next - the NDP got 3.3% last time. 3.3%! And people actually think they can win? Next - look at a map and figure out where Meadowvale is. All of the nieghbouring ridings are going Conservative and this is the most "Liberal" in the area, but it's a closer race between the two parties than many think.
30/05/04 Robert
Email: [hidden]
In terms of local candidates the clear advantage goes to Taylor.Liberal's fleeing from a siinking ship combined with an endorsement from a prominent Progressive Conservative and former mayor Ron Searle leads to a potential victory of Larry Taylor.
27/05/04 Paul
Email: [hidden]
The NDP candidate lives in Barrie, so no matter how deep his roots are here, he's not getting elected unless the others are all hit by a bus.
I'm white, anglo saxon from Levi Creek and it doesn't matter to me or those I've spoken to what the race of the main candidates are, it's a party choice. None are going to be in the cabinet.
Given the black eye the Harris/Eves governments have landed conservatives with, I think this is a slam dunk for the Liberals. And I'm sure the two gay couples are my street won't be voting Conservative.
As of May 27, in Levi Creek lawn signs are split evenly between the 3 major parties.
26/05/04 Mike
Apparently, Sandhu has over 2600 signs put up in the first week! That's unbelievable adn there are two words to sum up this achievement: Money and Connections. Sandhu is a ver young and successful immigration lawyer, who has helped countless in the riding come to Canada. He made fortunes in his profession, and that is reflected in his recent success in the riding along with his energy adn youthfulness. I won't call it Conservative for obvious reasons, being that the Libs captured over 60% of the vote last time, but all you Liberal predicting folks out there-- watch out!
26/05/04 G.L.
Email: [hidden]
Larry is wrong. Paul Simas lives in Mississauga, and in his riding. Larry Taylor lives in Barry. How can someone that lives in Barry care for Mississauga and Brampton?
25/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Welcome to 905-belt Liberal-red suburban reality, 2004-style; and Bains, still in his mid-20s, has all the makings of an energetic up-and-comer--though if we're looking at a Harris-style Harper surge, factor Sandhu in, too. Except that the new M-BS consists of some of the more "Liberal" parts of its constituent former seats; and besides, the last time this zone went federally Tory, it had the population of a PEI seat, if not Yukon or Nunavut! (And even in 1988, this particular area would have "gone Liberal" while most of the rest of the seat went Tory.) It was also the last time when Larry Taylor--the closest thing Mississauga has to a sagely Broadbentian NDP figure--held elected office. Although he might, indeed, (unfortunately) benefit electorally from the "race factor", why Taylor's running here is an enigma--wouldn't one of M-BS's older southern neighbours, where people might actually remember who he is and remember when voting NDP wasn't a fool's game, be theoretically more promising? (In BC terms, it's like choosing a central/south Surrey seat over a north Surrey seat.) If Alexa were still leader, he'd be easily brushed off as washed-up cannon fodder; under Jack Layton, one wonders if "something's up"...
Email: [hidden]
If there is to be an NDP breakthrough in the 905 look closely at this riding. Taylor wins hands down as the best candidate.He has stong roots in Mississauga while his opponents are Brampton based. Taylor has a broad appeal throughout the riding and has been a leader in organizing the multi cultural community. I believe if people follow there insticts and vote for the best candidate Taylor has a shot at victory. Voters in this riding have recently rejected the provincial Tories and now have soured on the McGuinty government. I believe this riding should be moved to the too close to call category
03/05/04 Westminster System
Email: westminstersystem@hotmail.com
Ah, the trouble with Larries. Taylor is certainly the most experienced and sure to be the best-financed Dipper in Mississauga, but Oshawa is the exception that proves Bear's and Ape's rule. Taylor will get a good vote, yes - since this is one of the safest Liberal holds in Ontario, so there's almost zero reason to fear a Tory pickup and run off to the old shelter of strategic voting. 70% voting for marginal Liberal backbenchers last time 'round does not a "blue belt" make.
29/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We read Larry's posting and could not believe what was written. He seems to think that "Anglo/Europeans" would not vote for a south Asian. We hate to break it to you Larry, but most Canadians are far more progressive than that! This is not the Victorian era, where stuff-shirt men of proper upbringing sit in gentelmen's clubs, smoking cigars and drinking gin, telling tales of adventure in Africa and journeys of conquest in India, all the while being over looked by mounted animal heads on the walls. That kind of nonsense does not belong in a 21st century election, and will not play in a multi-ethnic suburban riding. What also is not particularly realistic is an NDP victory in a GTA suburban riding. The area is particularly affluent and will go either Liberal or Conservative. NDP policy does not bode well here. We don't know who will win (as we are not too familiar with the Liberal or Conservative candidates) but one thing we'll bet a month's pay on; it WILL be a south Asian!
27/04/04 Larry
Email: [hidden]
All of the opinions expressed so far are out in right field. This riding is 90% Mississauga with only a small cutout of south Brampton.
There are four distinct areas of this newly created riding.
The south consists of parts of the municipal ward 3 and 4. This area is very European and not partial to voting for an south asian. It is also part of the municipal ward 4 that NDP candidate Larry Taylor held for 12 years!
The centre is a mixed bag of nationalities. This area is open to all three parties and will go to the candidate who works the hardest.
The Levi Creek/Meadowvale Village area is again primary Anglo/European and will resist the south asian attempts to control this riding.
The court house area of Brampton is a high density area with higher income housing that would tend to the conservatives except for the extreme right wing agenda that the Alliance/Conservatives are tagged with.
There will little benefit from previous voting patterns in this new riding without an incumbent. The experience of Larry Taylor far outways that of all the other candidates combined!
Look for a major upset here - the first New Democrat to win a Federal seat in Mississauga's history!
26/04/04 LOBO
Email: [hidden]

The Sikh voters are around 8000 out our eligible over 65000 voters of the riding. If 60% Sikhs vote out of 8000, they would poll around 5000 votes, which would be divided between Bains and Sandhu. There was no other opponent against Dhillon from Sikhs. There was a wave against Tory’s at the provincial level. At the Federal level, the situation
is different. There is voice against Liberals due to sponsorship scam. Conservatives are united who are all set to kick Liberals out of this riding. Sandhu has a good chance against Bains.
21/04/04 Larry
Email: [hidden]
Actually Chen...both Sandhu and Bains are equally experienced and both are from the Sikh faith. I think it's a fairly safe riding for the liberals...as you said, a lot of the riding falls under tonys old riding..the riding in which he lost to Liberal Vic Dhillon.
21/04/04 G.L.
Email: [hidden]
Dear Chen,
How is Sandhu more experienced than Bains? The only people who have electoral experience in this riding is the Barrie resident NDP candidate Larry Taylor and the Green Party candidate, Paul Simas. You're right when you say that the people of the riding are the same people who voted Tony Clement out of office.
18/04/04 Chen
Email: [hidden]
Bains who is a sikh turban guy running against Conservative Party's Sandhu. I am confident that Sandhu is going to win the seat as he is more expereinced than Bains. Majority of the riding consisits of Tony's old riding and may be classifed as Blue belt. Liberals are going down in this riding too.
30/03/04 TJ
Email: [hidden]
Come on, Nick! Looking back 30 years is useless to help predict this riding. This is a new riding. 30 years ago this area was purely farmland. Today it is endless subdivisions and strip malls. The voters here probably moved to the area within the last ten years. Visit and see for yourself, Nick.
25/03/04 G.L.
Email: [hidden]
The Green Party of Canada has a very good candidate this year. Paul Simas ran for MPP in the last provincial elections and has been fighting hard to provide the people of this riding with a real alternative to the federal two party system. Pay attention to this guy... He will surprise many people.
24/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding has always been close, looking back at electoral results for 30 years, you see a pattern more then a streak. With the cautious union on the right hoping to hold itself togethor, the Liberals should be able to squeak by, and take this riding.
23/03/04 905er
New Candidate in Navdeep who won a hard fought nomination, new riding which is diverse and ethnic and almost 70% of the vote in the last election for the Liberals = Liberal win. Navdeep is drawing upon a lot of Kular's organization which proved very effective against Raminder Gill in the last provincial election. They will prevail again here.

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