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Nickel Belt
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:44 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:32 PM 26/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Raymond Bonin
Mike Dupont
Parti Marijuana Party:
Michel Ethier
Claude Gravelle
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Steve Lafleur
Don Lavallee
Steve Rutchinski

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Algoma-Manitoulin (0.5%)
Brent St. Denis
Nickel Belt (76.6%)
Raymond Bonin
Nipissing (1.3%)
Bob Wood
Parry Sound-Muskoka (0.0%)
Hon. Andy Mitchell
Timiskaming-Cochrane (21.6%)
Benoît Serré

2000 Result/Résultats:
23,140 60.03%
6,965 18.07%
6,430 16.68%
1,919 4.98%
92 0.24%

(3/208 polls, 301/53535 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Nickel Belt
(163/190 polls, 50037/57476 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(4/175 polls, 880/57195 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Parry Sound-Muskoka
(2/197 polls, 24/64242 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(46/186 polls, 14114/53190 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 Peter S.
Email: [hidden]
Last federal election the NDP managed to recieve 18% of the vote when the NDP's popular support was in the single digits. According to polls, in this election NDP support will be double the amount as in the 2000 federal election, this could help the NDP candidate. Depending on the expected low voter turnout in this riding and the high level of anger with the Liberals, the NDP will take this riding from the Liberals. My perdiction: NDP 40%, Liberal 29%, CPC 22% others 9%.
21/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
NDP picked up over 35 per cent in this seat in 1997 when they were at 10 per cent overall. Tory and Reform were nowhere. Liberals were at about 50 per cent. Now, with the NDP vote near 20, a near-lock for the party in a longtime stronghold.
16/06/04 Michael C.
Email: [hidden]
This riding should be marked as too close to call! The voters here in NickelBelt always vote Liberal. But in this election some voters who usally vote Liberal will not vote because they are angry with the liberals and are not right or left leaning. There will be low turnout and most of the voters who turn up at the polls will be NDP and Conservative supporters, every voter I have talked to said they will vote Conservative. This will be exteremly close but Conservative candidate Mike Dupont will make history! My perdiction: CPC 34% NDP 32% Lib 31% others 3%.
15/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Will this one ever be close! The Martels will be working hard to ensure the NDP are returned here. Anti-Liberal feeeling means there will be a lot of Libs just stay home. Conservatives have a vote here, but rarely if ever win it. Three way split favours the NDP. Watch for a low turnout. I am going to come off the fence and say, my prediction here: NDP 34 Liberal 31 CPC 29. The debate will tell the tale.
07/06/04 axe2468
Email: [hidden]
I've been going door to door with Claude Gravelle & things are looking good. One things for sure, the conservatives don't stand a chance up here.
06/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Bonin's got all the inconsequentiality, and *perhaps* the safety, of a Scarborough Fed Grit flung all the way out to Sudbury--and even with the parts of Timiskaming added in, Nickel Belt has too much raw Franco-Ontarioness and Northern-NDPness stacked against a Cheryl Gallant-style Tory steal. Thus, everything here depends, with excellent historical-grounds reason, on a rekindled NDP; how strongly Timiskaming blunts that is unclear. If it were Ben Serre running instead of Ray Bonin, it'd be more of a drop in the Liberal bucket. In fact, the only real way the Conservatives could win is if Serre switched parties...
Email: tojersey@yahoo.ca
If the NDP couldn't win back my hometown riding with Elie Martel in 1997, I'm not betting the farm that they can do it with a much lesser-known candidate this time out -- but with a strong NDP history, Nickel Belt's clearly a riding where the Dippers will be running hard, and with the NDP the strongest they've been in years, don't count them out. Make no mistake, Chrétien won this riding for Ray Bonin, not the other way around, and if Paul Martin can't get the wheels back on the Liberal campaign bus, Bonin is Northern Ontario's most vulnerable target.
27/05/04 initial
Email: professorcorey87@pif.ca
The liberals have held this riding fairly well. Bonin may lose some voter support but he will win the riding again. With 60% of the vote in the last election, the liberals will not lose enough vote to take them out of this race.
19/05/04 Jack
Email: [hidden]
The NDP may not have a star candidate, however it's possible that it may win. Once people realize that Ray Bonin is nothing (he said time and time again he is GLAD not to be in Cabinet because it's too much work), they will vote NDP. Furthermore, this is a very "leftist" riding, and M. Bonin has said some rather right-wing stuff in recent years, which could affect his outcome.
15/05/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
This is the one and only francophone majority Ontario riding, guess who is going to win it??? Hahahaha the Alliance-Conservative party doesn't even bother. Liberal lock.
Editor Note: The only Ontario riding with francophone majority is actually Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.
13/04/04 Watt Tyler
Email: [hidden]
The NDP reached a historic low in 2000, and Ray Bonin's 60% (redistibuted results) will not be repeated. There is long NDP tradition at both the federal and provincial level in this riding, and in a good year (which this is starting to look like for them) the NDP will always be competitive here. If the Liberals hit the skids this year look for seats like Nickel Belt (and Timmins and Sault Ste. Marie) to return to their NDP roots, and possibly tip some traditionally Liberal-leaning seats in the north (such as Algoma and Kenora) that way as well.
30/03/04 Full Name
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals have had excellent support throughout this region in the past. If anything, their previous 60% of the vote may lose some ground but the new Conservatives will not be able to take this seat from the Liberals.
25/03/04 Gerry
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
Liberals got 32% victory here last time. The margin of victory will undoubtedly be closer but they'll still undoubtedly win this time.
24/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
NDP have to target this one as winable. I understand why the numbers were bad in 2000. They know that they can win it provincially.
24/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

Redistribution has given the Liberals some insurance in Nickel Belt. In the old riding, their primary challengers were the NDP (who represented the seat as late as 1993, via John Rodriguez). The new riding, however, includes a slab of Temiskaming-Cochrane, where the NDP are almost non-existent. Even in the event of an NDP upsurge, this riding looks set to stay red.
24/03/04 full
Email: [hidden]
While the NDP should do considerably well in this riding, the liberal candidate for this riding appears to be extremely popular. Liberal support will decline, and NDP increase, but the Liberals will still take this riding.
24/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding has been around since 1952, giving us an excellent oppertunity to examine voting trends. In the 16 elections in that time, 10 were won by Liberals. Looking purly from before 1993, you see a 6/7 split for the NDP and the Liberals in terms of winning the Riding. Keeping in mind the NDP was not formed untill 1961, this is quite an impressive record. The people here do "dirty" work for a living, and the NDP has always tried to cater to those people. This riding should go easily for the NDP this election.

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