Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:41 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:27 AM 6/27/2004

Constituency Profile
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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Dan Biocchi
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Marc Godbout
Crystal Leblanc
Walter Robinson

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell (0.8%)
Hon. Don Boudria
Ottawa-Orléans (99.2%)
Eugène Bellemare

2000 Result/Résultats:
25,157 51.82%
11,971 24.66%
8,136 16.76%
2,026 4.17%
1,260 2.60%

(3/198 polls, 621/73147 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(191/207 polls, 72873/77455 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
The Francophones from this riding heard Scott Reid's comments on bilingualism as well as Steven Harper's position on Air Canada's bilingualism. They also heard the positions of the now dumped Larry Spencer and Jim Pankiw about the "French". All of that, combined with what people perceive as arrogant Alliance-Conservative candidate will enable Mr. Godbout to win by over 10 % of the vote.
21/06/04 minor local player
Email: [hidden]
Despite a recent surge in Liberal sign locations in the western part of the riding, Walter Robinson seems to have this one sewn up. He has higher visibility door-to-door, and in the Citizen. Godbout will be known to the francophone voters from his time with the French school board, but Robinson will be known to the more numerous anglophones from his stint as Director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. The many military and RCMP personnel in "CFB Orleans" will tend to prefer the Conservative defence and Law and Order platform planks. Provincially this riding returned Harrisite Brian Coburn for two terms during the Common Sense Revolution. Robinson will pick up that base.
17/06/04 Brian
Email: [hidden]
This constituency will go Conservative. Walter Robinson is a well-respected candidate who has been getting extremely positive feedback at the doors. His volunteers tell me that the McGuinty budget is still an issue.
I have also spoken to longtime Liberal activists in this riding who tell me that they are simply sitting this election out and waiting for the next time. Internal divisions in the Liberal Party following the leadership race have not helped. They were also exacerbated by Bellemare's decision to hang on too long, which resulted in a divided local organization at a time when the party could least afford it.
17/06/04 JGH
Email: goatinpickuptruck@yahoo.com
Time to reverse my call. Wally Robinson's campaign, which is drawing people from all across town based on his personal contacts, is humming along, while the Liberal campaign is inexplicably imploding. Libs made a huge mistake in picking their candidate here. Walter is likely the pick of the litter for Cabinet seats in the Ottawa Valley in an ensuing Conservative government (whether minority or majority remains to be seen).
16/06/04 Brian
Email: [hidden]
I think one of the more important issues in the riding is the loss of Eugene. I've been door knocking and I can tell you that ALOT of life long Liberals are very mad about him losing the nomination. I was standing outside the debate and we had alot of Liberals telling us that they were simply sitting on their hands for this election, either not voting, or throwing their vote behind a pop party. I don't know why, I've always thought he was a rather useless MP, but still, everyone seems to love him.
10/06/04 Fallingbrook Fanatic
Email: [hidden]
This election is starting to feel a lot like 1999. Strong Tory candidate and the local Liberals thinking that they will be elected solely because they are Liberals, and quietly trying to use languge as a wedge. The arrogance of some of the Liberal posts here are also like 1999... "Tories have no shot,etc.." in fact, I copied this from the 1999 prediction page, sound familiar? We know how that turned out.
"PC with a chance Carleton-Gloucester?! hmmpff!! This is the riding where I grew up and I have worked as a poll clerk here, it is about the safest liberal seat in the province. I don't think the conservatives have ever held this seat provincially, and the conservatives usually have come in third here. Now that the NDP presence in the riding has pretty much evaporated the conservatives can forget even the slightest hope of coming up the middle. Any one could run for the Liberals here and win, just look at the representative in Ottawa, the doddering half-wit windbag radical anti-abortionist Eugene Bellmare!"
04/06/04 Fallingbrook Fanatic
Email: [hidden]
Went to the All Candidates Debate at Garneau... wow, was Godbout ever awful. Godbout seems really weak, either that or he was just tired, but he seemed ill at ease and unsure of his answers. Granted, Walter is more of a showman and most of the crowd had obviously made up their minds before attending, but if this performance was a sign of things to come then I think Robinson has an easier ride than one might expect. Godbout seems to be gambling that language will win him the riding. That didn't work provincially for Rene Danis in 1999. Don't see it working now. If any one issue will be a clincher it will be defence issues, and Godbout clearly stated a couple of times that he does not favour any substantial increase in military spending except for strict peacekeeping duties. Not a way to win votes with NDHQ staffers.
04/06/04 Hack
Email: [hidden]
Its in the signs. Walter has signs were he should have them, where he has to have them, and most importantly where he has no business having them. One solid Liberal poll with 25 - 1, others less overpowering but the same result. Swing polls - Conservatives 15 - 3. Conservative areas are all Conservative. Conservatives don't usually put up signs in this riding. You knew who is voting Conservative - its was the house on a street without a Liberal sign. So that's the "sign" that it is still Walter's to lose.
03/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Over the past generation, the Ottawa region has emerged as a political belwether. It saw a 1988 Liberal sweep that claimed some longtime Tory bastions and anticipated the Chretien routs; and more recently, it's been at the forefront of a rightward swing which, on the surface, seems quite unlikely given the proximity to the Grit parliamentary machine. This isn't Reformist firebrand country; it's moderate urban/suburbanity with a Franco-Ontarian streak...right? Ah, how the wave's escalated. One might have expected the outer seats to the south and west to go Tory; but, the east?!? The Orleans-Cumberland-Gloucester suburban belt was always the suburban Francophone trajectory, right? Which means, easy Liberal? Even with drudges like Eugene Bellemarre (who, remember, defeated none other than Maureen McTeer in 1988)? No longer--after all, it went provincially Tory in 1999 (though not 2003), and is demographically pure affluent 905-belt, Ottawa style, Franco or no. Thus, Walter Robinson. Next door to McGuinty. And if anyone's prepared to make electoral hay out of the McGuinty budget, it is he. And for all we know, he'll drag down Don Boudria with him. Unless, of course, the usual AllianceConservative foot-shoot (y'know, re bilingualism et al) drags *Robinson* down instead. So it's no certainty--but it's not laughable like four years ago...
03/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
Things have changed in Ottawa Orleans since I made my prediction 2 weeks ago that this riding would remain Liberal. I now think that unless the Liberals really gain momentum here that the Conservatives will win this normally safe Liberal seat. Because of the decline of the Liberals and the increase of the Conservatives in Ontario, it looks like Walter Robinson of the Taxpayers Fed will take this riding for the Cons. The Ottawa Citizen article on the candidate's debate last night mentioned how angry the audience was with the Liberals and how other candidates had to tell the audience to at least let Liberal Marc Godbout speak. In my neighbourhood there are 2-3 times the amount of Conservative signs than Liberal signs and that is a change from previous years. A Conservative gain appears to be around the corner here.
02/06/04 Mike D
I saw Walter Robinson on CPAC and was impressed with his communications skills. Even though I don't personally agree with his message, it will probably go over well with voters frustrated with the scandal-plagued Liberals. In addition, considering the Liberals is not at all prominent, I'll call this for Robinson. Word of warning to Robinson: you set the bar rather high, you better live up to it.
02/06/04 Orléans Voter
Email: [hidden]
I was at the debate last night, no doubt Walter Robinson is a better public speaker than Godbout. However, everyone at the debate seemed to have made up their minds ahead of time - so the fact Walter won the debate did not change much. A few key observations: 1) The Robinson supporters were very disrespectful and rowdy... classy move on Walter's part to tell them to show some respect. 2) I fail to understand why the other candidates did not insist on full answers from Walter on his position on official Bilingualism. Walter answered with a wishy-washy party policy that really indicates no clear position. Here is the question Walter must answer before the end of the election --> "Mr. Robinson, what is YOUR position on the CURRENT status of official Bilingualism? Are you in favour of retaining status quo? If not, WHAT aspects of the policy would you revisit." I have read many of Walter's archived articles and they indicate his anti-official Bilingualism stance - while today he seems to use a much different tone. His true position is murky at best. If he was to come right out and tell me he supports the retention of the current status, I would consider changing my vote. But as it stands now, he is dancing around the issue, and I still perceive the Conservative party as the party that would ignore Francophone language rights. 3) Godbout also failed to extract a clear answer on the question of supporting the Americans in Iraq. Unfortunately, it was another murky position from Walter. No clear indication on whether he would have supported sending troops.
02/06/04 Matt
Email: [hidden]
After watching the first All-Candidates Debate for Ottawa-Orleans last night, Walter Robinson is clearly the front-runner in the riding. Mark Godbout looked sloppy and was generally uncharismatic and flat during the debate, with Robinson, as well as Dan Biocchi (Green) running circles around him. Anyone else who was there last night wil be able to attest to the overwhelming Conservative support, with Blue and White decorating about three-quarters of the crowd. The end of the night was very telling, with Godbout receiving polite applause, while Robinson's speech was welcomed with a standing and racuous cheering.
The only thing that will keep the Liberals in this race is the significant proportion of Francophones in the riding (despite mr. Robinson being more fluent in both official languages than the Liberal candidate)
01/06/04 Political Junkie
Email: [hidden]
Although I think Ottawa-Orleans is a riding to watch, I have always believed that the riding would go Liberal in a tight race. Recent polls, showing the Conservatives neck-and-neck with the Liberals in Ontario, should provide encouragement to the Conservatives in this riding. Unfortunately, I think that they have shot themselves in the foot in Ottawa-Orleans, given Scott Reid's comments on official bilingualism. Before Reid's comments, Harper was managing to portray a "moderate" party position on official bilingualism, and the media was only half-heartedly throwing past Reform and Alliance positions on this issue back at him. I think Harper was doing really well on this issue until Reid spoke. I think it is naive to think that the Franco-Ontarian community is in the back-pocket of the Liberals, but it is a politicized community and Reid's unfortunate comments have effectively ruined the Conservatives' hopes of making inroads in this key electorate. Ottawa-Orleans is one of the few ridings in this country where Mr. Reid's comments will haunt the Conservatives (i.e. a riding with a sizeable francophone population where the Conservatives had a reasonable expectation of winning the seat). The election is still a long-time away, and upcoming events and momentum at the national level can still effect this riding, but I am now much more comfortable predicting a Liberal win in this riding than I was prior to Mr. Reid's comments on official bilingualism.
28/05/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Took a drive through Fallingbrook today ... only counting lawns, Robinson leads the sign war by about 2.5 to 1.
25/05/04 Orleans Resident
Email: [hidden]
I agree that it is very insulting to francophone voters to assume that they will vote as a block for the Liberal party. With incumbent Eugene Bellemare out of the picture I believe this race will come down to who works harder. I have received two pamphelts from Walter Robinson, and he came to my door. I did not even know the new Liberals name until I saw his signs up, he will have to work harder to keep this riding. Also with the recent provincial budget the Liberals will have a lot of baggage to carry in this election. It will be close but the Conservatives will win.
19/05/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
I have lived in Ottawa-Orleans for almost 15 years and it is a solid Liberal riding federally. Although I am working for the NDP in Ottawa Centre in this election where the NDP WILL win, this is not an NDP riding and it does not have much of a presence here - perhaps that is something that can change in the future! It has voted Conservative provincially, but when was the last time it voted Conservative federally? Now that long time Liberal MP Eugene Bellemare has been removed as the Liberal candidate for this riding, the Conservative candidate Walter Robinson may have the chance to increase the Conservative vote here since he is a stronger candidate than federal Conservatives of the past, but the voters in this riding will just replace Liberal MP Bellemare with Liberal MP Marc Godbout. There would have to be some major changes here in order for this riding to go Conservative, so I am not sure why it is in the "too close too call" category, because unless Robinson picks up a huge amount of votes, this will be Liberal again.
19/05/04 R.F.
Email: [hidden]
Together with his endless campaigning, Walter's national profile will put him over the top. Walter is Cabinet Minister material...and his riding knows it.
15/05/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
A few rebuttal points to Orleans Voter:
All those public servants on the buses aren't exactly thrilled about being offered a 4.25% raise over three years in their next contract.
Not one penny of the money announced for public transit this week will be spent in Orleans until at least 2007, and when it is spent here, it will be in support a route that avoids downtown like the plague.
A disproportionate number of Orleans commuters are military, and Walter Robinson opposes moving DND HQ to the old JDS campus.
/05/04 Victor A.
Email: pokojpeacepaix@yahoo.ca
In fact, what "Reality Check" is claiming is totally false. While Robinson might be a star within the PC party, he is virtually unknown to the population as a whole and should have chosen a more convenient rural riding for himself to run in. Overall, the Liberal candidate is much better known and I saw him yesterday on the TVO news. He would be a real asset to this riding after a so-so performance from Eugène Bellemare. I don't think that "Reality Check" is up-to-date with the Francophone voting in Ontario on both provincial and federal levels, he doesn't seem to be aware of the Monfort and any other francophone issues around and yet he claims that his mother tongue is French...contradictory huh??? I would say very, but this is how desperate the Conservative-Alliance party is, their tactic is to present to the public overhyped candidates and to pretend they have a chance to actually win, despite the facts saying otherwise ( be it on the social or economic front ), this tactic is so desperate that in fact it is doomed in the long run. Now, when it comes to the last poster, I have yet to see if Robinson has ever made any anti-French comments or not, but given his party stand on the bilingualism and the anti-French politicians like Scott Reid and now dumped Jim Pankiw, there is no way the francophones will vote for that 3-rd rated choice from the Conservative association.
13/05/04 Orléans Voter
Email: [hidden]
Orléans francophones will not soon forget Walter Ronbinson's anti-official bilingualism position. The majority of Public Servants from Ottawa-Orléans are bilingual, with French being their mother tongue. It will be interesting to see how Walter will react when asked about his position - my guess is that he will try to soften his previous stance.
Another huge issue in Ottawa-Orléans is transportation, specifically public transport. Most Public Servants from Ottawa-Orléans take the bus to work. The Liberals have just announced funding for Ottawa's public transport system. The GST rebate announced for cities will also help public transport. Unfortunately for the Conservatives, they are associated with the "more roads" over public transit mentality (since their electorate is mostly rural). I believe this will hurt them.
To his credit though, Walter Robinson is extremely well spoken, and his campaign team is already very well organized. No doubt he will make a race of it.
12/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Victor...Thank you for your comments...in particular related to the cohesiveness of the Franco-Ontarian community. It did bring back memories of Montfort, but I do agree that as a non-Francophone, I might not be as sensitive as I should be to get a good feel for the riding.
That being said, I do think the riding as become more of a swing riding in recent years and less of a Liberal east-end bastion. It is thoroughly suburbanized and its inherently middle class character makes it more, not less Conservative to my mind. In the evolution of politics, the Conservatives are becomeing the party of suburban middle class voters...and less of a party representing wealthy ridings as before...More 905 than 416...more Pickering and Oshawa than Rosedale or Forest Hill...
That being said, an important question that will drive the race in Ottawa-Orleans is the issue mix that gels the decisions of voters...it is not immediately obvious to me that the Conservatives will push issues inherantly antagonistic to Francophones. Rather, local Conservative candidates appear eager to display their connections to the francophone community and most seem fluently bilingual.
But your warning on the importance of recent history and provincial issues will give me appropriate pause...
12/05/04 Reality Check
Email: [hidden]
Ah Victor, you read some Census data and now you're a political analyst. Wow. You must start charging people on this site. As a francophone, who resides in Ottawa-Orleans, I can tell you that you are dead wrong! Simple as that. Moreover, the election of a unilingual Anglophone, Brian Coburn beating a francophone City Councillor, Rene Danis in 1999 speaks more volumes. And, to assume all francophones will blindly support a party and a francophone is a tad stereotypical -- don't you think? Anyway, the election has yet to begin, but it promises to be a close race. Presently, the odds lean to Walter because he is a formidable opponent, who is loved by the media, has the issues on his side, knows federal policy and has been around campaigns to know what it takes. Yes, I am regurgitating a previous posting, but I am wrong?
11/05/04 Victor A.
Email: pokojpeacepaix@yahoo.com
Again, the PC party should not lose its time in this riding. Returning to the census, yes indeed the number that was officially declared was 29.8 % for Francophones but you have to keep in mind that a lot of French-Ontarians chose both French and English as their mother tongue. In fact, the census provides a choice of one or more than one language as your native tongue. Again, this is to underline the importance of the Francophone vote in this riding. The matter of the fact is that it will be polarizing in favor of the popular and well known French Ontarian liberal candidate. People such as The Insider and Mr Sheratt don't seem to be specifically aware of the French Onatrian issues in Ottawa and also the relationship or should I say the lack of it between the PC Party ( on both provincial and federal front ). People are still angry over what provincial PC did to them while they were in power and the total disrespect of their issues. Secondly I would advise the two above mentioned posters to take a look into Census 2001 economic statistics for this riding and you can see that by all means this is not a conservative riding neither economically nor socially.... and when it comes to the so called issue of Mr Robinson's supposed stardom, let me just say..."this is the joke of the day"!
11/05/04 Hack
Email: [hidden]
Marc has the keys to the car and money to burn. No horses under the hood and open warfare in the ranks is a replay of the Liberal antics when they dumped Morin (MPP) and the public dumped them. Marc need PM PM badly. Lot's of buzz around town about Walter and his compaign. It's Walter's to lose.
10/05/04 The Insider
Email: [hidden]
The news around town is that the Conservatives will heavily focus resources on Ottawa-Orleans and Nepean Carleton in the Ottawa area. Leeds-Grenville and Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke are done deals. Ottawa West Nepean is also in play, but not to the extent that the aforementioned are. Brian Coburn's win was not a fluke at all. In fact, it designated the riding as a new bellweather seat. Walter's strengths are perfectly suited in the riding: Fiscal prudence for the ever growing affluent residents, strong military for the thousands of DND employees living here, and fluently bilingual anglophone, who's son is in a french school, is reassuring for francophones. Walter knows federal policy better than most, will have a healthy war=chest, and is media savvy. When Walter wins, this will not be a fluke either, just the right time for this candidacy.
07/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
hmmm...according to the 2001 census, the francophone community (based on language used at home) is 29.8%...high enough to provide for a very good Liberal base, but not necessarily decisive.
There are effectively no rural areas left in the riding with redistribution...a factor not helping the Conservatives, who lost good polls along the Rideau River to Nepean Carleton.
The Conservative edge simply comes from the uniformly middle class and suburban character of the riding. It has a lot of civil servants whose views of the Martin government will likely prove decisive if they swing to the Conservatives as a protest against 10 years of austerity and some false steps taken in the early days of the Martin government. The Conservative is a star candidate, but will need some breaks to win.
06/05/04 arnie
Email: [hidden]
Postings such as "Somebody" and "Insider" seem to be based on wishful thinking in a riding which has not had any good news for Conservatives other than a fluke win in a provincial election two terms ago. At ground level, Walter Robinson is not nearly as well known as his handlers like to believe. On the other hand, Liberal Godbout is even less well known but will capitalize on his francophone connections. While the Liberal association is fragmented in the aftermath of their bitter nomination battle similar to the Rene Danis/Serge Arpin 1999 hostilities (Eugene Bellemare just can't get over his loss and continues to act like a spoiled child who refuses to make up with his superior siblings), Godbout's people have steadily taken over the riding executive and are cementing the campaign together.
The good news for the Liberals is that they have a healthy war chest (the reported $25,000 they were going to blow on a party is actually closer to $60,000 once all outstanding contributions and refunds are factored in) makes their run a little easier to finance and fundraisers are still in the works.
Finally, Godbout has been pounding the pavement ahead of Robinson in areas identfied as needing shoring up; his door-to-door teams have Robinson outnumbered and sweeping far faster through neighbourhoods. While Robinson presents a stronger personality and will narrow the gap, it will not be sufficient to overcome the party/leader advantages the Liberals carry in this riding.
01/05/04 Victor A.
Email: pokojpeacepaix@yahoo.ca
There seems to be some major confusion amongst the posters such as *The Insider* and some others that keep on pretending that Robinson is a hot favorite here. One major fact was completly ommited in what is now turning out to be a *not so deep analysis*. In previous comments it wasn't taken into consideration at all. The fact is that Francophones encompass around 35 % of the population in this riding ( which makes it I believe the 4-th largest francophone riding in this province ). No French-Ontarian or very little of them would vote for Robinson. French-Ontarians have a tradition to support their own no matter what and the candidate is popular in Francophone circles. Neither Robinson nor his right-wing party don't seem to be specifically French friendly and he is going to have to pay a price for that. Under Harris/Eves provincial Tory gov't the French-Ontarians were marginalized in many ways, people still remember the Montfort Hospital issues etc.. Liberal Party is Francophone friendly on the provincial and federal levels. Now, it is going to be divided among the Anglophone population between the Grits and the PC but the result among Francophones will an overwhelming 90 to 95% of support to the Liberal Candidate. My second point is that Orléans is hardly a Conservaive territory, it's the East End of Ottawa after all, this is not the Hi-Tech Kanata/Napean where the Conservatives should be working instead of losing time on this riding. Furthermore, don't be misled by the fact that the rural areas will vote Robinson, in fact the rural areas are linguistically split as much as Orléans itself.
01/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
This is another Ottawa area riding that will deffinately go Liberal. The combined Conservative and Alliance vote did not come close enough to the Liberal vote to make this a riding that would be in my mind a "close riding" If you want a close riding, go to Ottawa West-Nepean. West end of Ottawa is a conservative area, not the east. There is also a large francophone population in this riding. One more reason it will continue to be Liberal this year.
19/04/04 The Insider
Walter Robinson hands down! He's got the profile, he's got the work ethic and he's got the $$. Walter has contacted me several times since he became the candidate. I haven't heard anything from M.Godbout - even after I called his office and sent him an email. If M. Godbout think's he'll get elected by neglecting his constituents he should ask M. Bellemare how that strategy worked for him.
In the wake of sponsorship and the $25k Bellemare Boondogle I think Walter's got it hands down!
19/04/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Orleans Online electronic newspaper reports that outgoing MP Eugene Bellemare has turned thumbs down on a plan to spend $25,000 from the riding associations $42,000 war chest on a farewell party in his honour.
The decision to throw the party reportedly upset several member of the executive who were not informed of the meeting, and supporters of candidate Marc Godbout.
Given the apparent level of disarray in Liberal ranks, I'm finally willing to make a prediction in my own riding.
16/04/04 Somebody in Ottawa
Email: [hidden]
Walter Robinson will win. He's well known and offers Ottawa-Orléans everything the Liberal candidate says it deserves -- a stronger voice in the House of Commons.
If the public mood was with the Liberals, I'd predict a close race in OO as Godbout's well known among francophones; sadly for him, he's the right candidate at the wrong time.
Robinson takes this one, and by a healthy margin.
18/04/04 KPC
Email: [hidden]
Conservatives are not going to win seats we have lost badly provincially in 2003. They will win in rural Easter Ontario but not this one. Robinson will make it closer but you can't change voting trends with a strong candidate by more than 5 %.
02/04/04 Honest Abe
Email: simondup@yahoo.ca
My Liberal friends should fret because whether they like it or not, Walter Robinson will win a close race in Ottawa Orleans. This battle will be reminiscient of the 1999 battle between Brian Coburn and Rene Danis: A popular right of centre Anglophone squaring off against a unknown francophone outside francophone circles, but well known in francophone circles. In addition, the local Liberals are warring with one another again, which reminds us of 1999 (Rene Danis & Serge Arpin) all over again. Mr. Bellemare's team is tired and mostly retired; Mr. Murdock's team is scattering all over the city; and Mr. Godbout has a inexperienced campaign team. Mr. Godbout cannot even look to Phil McNeely, the provincial rep because of his lack of attention to the riding since being elected 6-months ago. And to make matters worse for Mr. Godbout, though all four east-end councillors are Liberal, they were divided during the nomination battle and during the recent City Budget debac! le. Mr. Godbout would make a great Member of Parliament, but so will the victor: Walter Robinson.
31/03/04 Petrie Island Prowler
Email: [hidden]
Orleans is ready for a change and with Walter Robinson running for the new Conservatives, I think it is time to go out on a limb and predict a Tory victory here.
Marc Godbout is unknown outside of the francophone community (which is now down to less than %20 of the riding), which will put the Liberals in a hole to start with. The government workers in this riding tend to be Military and RCMP, not your typical Liberal voting civil servants. Add that to the slow progress made by the Right here over the last 10 years, including Brian Coburn getting 54% of the vote in 1999 and you have the groundswell for an upset victory.
Liberal loyalists will point to their victory in the 2003 provicial election, and that is fair. But McNeely had much better profile than Godbout does, and that meant a lot. Especially in Fallingbrook and Avalon, which were Coburn strongholds. Look for a Robinson victory.
29/03/04 shelly
Murdock was the only guy to keep this riding red. The new Liberal candidate is a rookie - Walter has a good chance.
29/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
From the Ottawa Citizen:
Eugene Bellemare, a 16-year vetran MP, was deposed by Liberal in Orleans last night when they nominated a political newcomer, Marc Godbout, to run in the yet-to-be called federal election.
Mr Godbout recently stepped down as director of education at Ottawa's French Catholic school board after almost five years to seek the nomination.
The race is expected to be one of the tightest in the election. Walter Robinson, the former director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, is the Tory nominee.
24/03/04 Todd S.
Email: [hidden]
Walter Robinson is the Tory candidate in this riding, and is supposedly "high profile." Problem is, his profile is with conservative activists across the whole country and various policy analysts and journalist hacks, not the rank and file voting public of Ottawa Orleans. This is one of the safest seats in Ontario for the Liberals; Robinson, despite impeccable qualifications and a high media profile, doesn't have a snowball's chance in Hades of taking this seat. If he hadn't been too big for his britches, he would have run in Nepean Carleton where he would have had a better than 50% chance. But no, Walter wanted to run where he leaves and he's heading for a crushing defeat.
20/03/04 JGH
Email: [hidden]
Ah, good ol' Double O. My old school chum Walter Robinson is running here, and while I think he would make a great MP, there may be too many things that would mitigate against his election. As the recent provincial election indicated, the PC victory of 1999 was a Coburn victory as opposed to a Conservative victory, and now the riding seems to have reset to type. There doesn't seem to be a galvanizing local issue like a la '99 that could swing the riding Walter's way. Clearly, though, the Conservatives are very high on Walter, giving him national exposure as moderator of the leadership debates, and they will likely send in ground troops to support him. I would just humbly suggest to anyone from the Robinson campaign that is reading this - would it be too much to ask for a picture of Walter on his website where he is smiling? He's running for MP, not world's angriest man!
20/03/04 Wilf Day
Email: dayphope@on.aibn.com
Walter Robinson is not only a star candidate for his party, he has a national non-partisan reputation. As a member of Fair Vote Canada's National Advisory Board, he and leftist-feminist Judy Rebick are the odd couple famous for many presentations of their Punch and Judy show: "The only thing we agree on is the need for proportional representation."
19/03/04 V.D.
Email: bench_breaker@hotmail.com
Walter Robinson, former head of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, is the conservative's star candidate for this riding. Could go conservative.
19/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

This area shocked the Liberal Party establishment by drifting to the provincial Tories in 1999. That, however, was a fluke. David Pratt may be in trouble next door, but Ottawa-Orleans should stay red, Bellemare or no.
16/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Local community newspapers are reporting that Eugene Bellemare (16 years an MP, 18 years on city council) is facing a stiff nomination fight from Liberal organizer Bruce Murdock.

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