Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Parkdale-High Park
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:03 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:34 AM 6/27/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Sarmite (Sam) Bulte
Lorne Gershuny
Jurij Klufas
Peggy Nash
Parti Marijuana Party:
Terry Parker
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Neil Spiegel

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Parkdale-High Park (100.0%)
Sarmite Bulte

2000 Result/Résultats:
20,155 49.21%
7,805 19.06%
5,613 13.71%
4,792 11.70%
2,589 6.32%

Parkdale-High Park
(186/189 polls, 71073/72087 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
22/06/04 Michael C
Email: [hidden]
In the poll I am canvassing for Peggy Nash in south High Park, I have been surprised to hear at least a dozen voters say that they have never seen Sam Bulte, our 2-term MP in the riding. Without any prompting from me, people have consistently come up with words like "invisible" and "absentee MP". Also, a great many people are well aware that Ms. Bulte still lives in Forest Hill; she's getting tangled in her parachute.
Meanwhile, the Tory candidate, Jurij Klufas has angered the Parkdale Residents Association because he failed to appear at their All Candidates meeting. According to a PRA Open Letter, "Robert Wells, the campaign manager for Mr. Klufas, told The Parkdale Residents Association that the Conservative candidate would not attend the meeting because he had little chance of swaying many voters in the area; in short, Mr. Wells did not feel that addressing our community would be a worthwhile use of Mr. Klufas' time."
Mr. Klufas did show up at a Swansea AllCan meeting where I gather he performed very poorly and displayed an inadequate knowledge of the issues. Since then he has boycotted at least three AllCan meetings including one on June 10 in High Park. In my adendum to the PRA letter I said: To miss one A-C meeting is excusable. "To miss five, which appears to be Mr. Klufas' intention, is intolerable - a real snub to democracy."
Voters are angry at Sam Bulte and Jurij Klufas and impressed by Peggy. My local canvassing, boued by the above factors, convinces me that Peggy Nash will win by a comfortable margin.
22/06/04 Don Kearney
Email: donk@egale.ca
Although I really like Sam Bulte (she was my MP a few years ago when I lived in High Park), I think her outright support of Sheila Copps during the "leadership race" (if you can call it that) really hurt her chances of Paul Martin remembering her name, let alone ensuring that he tried to make sure she gets re-elected. She was visible when I lived there and held a number of community events but that may have trailed off... I'm not sure. Either way, after looking at Peggy's site and speaking with a few people, she seems very nice, well-liked and well-rounded. I am sure there are hundreds of Liberal candidates who are cursing Paul Martin's name for calling this election. This riding will go NDP just slightly over the Liberal candidate.
20/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
I am hearing NDP right across the southern belt of Toronto. From Scarboro SW to Etobicoke Lakeshore. With the party at 26 per cent according to Ekos, just a half dozen behind the Libs and better distributed, that bears it out, especally here where the CPC actually has some to gain. Strong candidate with solid backing. NDP 38 Lib 33 CPC 21
20/06/04 Tomal
Email: [hidden]
MJL clearly has an agenda but I cannot let MJL's observations go unremarked upon. Sam Bulte was hand-picked by Martin to be the Ontario Caucus Chair - just this year! To suggest that Martin does not want Sam to win re-election (as MJL clearly suggests) is utterly foolish. It is beyond foolish. Martin wants McTeague but not Sam. Not both. What rubbish. Liberals want every seat they can win. Liberals are in a tight fight with the Conservatives to form government. Liberals want to win any seat possible so that Harper does not end up Prime Minister.
20/06/04 Parkdale
Email: [hidden]
I heard David Miller on CBC radio today saying that he thought it was close race between the NDP & Conservatives. What have you been smoking David? The NDP are so desperate that they are now removing Bulte signs from people's lawns and putting in their own. At this point they don't care who they offend because the Nash campaign are trying to hang on to their party resources.
20/06/04 Ethan
Email: [hidden]
I think that lots of Miller supporters will vote for Peggy Nash - Bulte has support from the polish community but I think that a lot of other voters will defect to the NDP due to their pro-cities stance.
20/06/04 G. Soderchuk
Email: [hidden]
From my point of view, it is sad but it does look like NDP will win this one. The liberals have only themselves to blame for this - they have a weak candidate in Ms Bulte and have not exploited the connection of Ms Nash to the ever so unpopular Buzz Hargrove. The conservatives on the other hand have put a Ukrainian broadcaster with no clear political experience and are praying for divine intervention. Even with a conservative majority looming, it will be difficult for Mr Kluffas to pick enough support outside the Ukrainian community.
The irony in all of this is that a riding which is quite well off will finish with a left leaning MP, in addition to its left leaning MPP (G. Kennedy).
16/06/04 AHP
Email: [hidden]
It certainly appears that the election results will be very close in Parkdale-High Park, and the NDP may just pull off an upset here. Traditionally this has been a strong Liberal riding federally, but our Liberal MP has not made much of an impression either on the national stage or in the riding. This, combined with the demographic trends mentioned by others, and the attention Peggy Nash has been getting, creates a real opening for the NDP.
The lawn signs also point to a close race between the Liberals and the NDP. I just did a quick tour of the riding north of Bloor Street and the numbers of signs for these parties seemed pretty even - despite the fact that this is likely not the most left-leaning part of the riding. Conservative signs are mostly concentrated in affluent Baby Point and parts of Bloor West Village. Green signs are evident in all areas, and are much more common than in any previous election in this part of the world.
The Greens will no doubt draw some support away from the NDP, but it seems they are getting significant support from those who would never consider voting NDP. The elderly Eastern European lady who lives next door to me now has a Green Party sign on her lawn! When things like that start happening, you know that the Liberals are in trouble.
One indication MP Sarmite Bulte senses that her seat is threatened is the fact that, over the course of the first part of the campaign, she helpfully sent us several pieces of literature as an MP (and thus at taxpayers' expense, rather than the Liberal Party's expense) telling us what a great job the Liberal government is doing. It seems unlikely she will win many people over with this tactic.
14/06/04 Jermaine Defoe
Email: [hidden]
To the Liberal below who attempted to devalue the Miller endorsement on the grounds that he has endorsed New Democrats in the past - Surely it is obvious that while that may be the case, a Miller endorsement means more now that he's the Mayor. And not just the Mayor, but seemingly a wildly popular Mayor.
I think Nash will win a close race for all kinds of reasons - a more engerized local campaign than Bulte, greater voter enthusiasm (New Dems on the rise, Libs on the wane), strong city-wide (or at least downtown-wide) numbers AND the endorsement of Toronto's most popular politician - David Miller.
13/06/04 Astrid
Email: [hidden]
I saw Sam at the Parkdale Cultural Festival at Masaryk Cowan Park. There were hundreds of people out for the all day event. Sam was mobbed by people asking her to autograph their programs. Children were coming up to say hello. In this area she's a local hero and people want to show their support.
12/06/04 MJL
Email: leemj@eudoramail.com
Firstly it may seem stupid to say that Peggy Nash has Layton's endorsement. However, it isn't, when you consider the fact that Martin's support for Bulte is lukewarm at best. The Liberals are in for a real drubbing - in particular in Martinite ridings. The fewer members from the 'progressive wing' of the Liberal party, the better for Martin. If Martin had a choice between Bulte winning and Dan McTeague winning there is no doubting where he'd be.
Secondly, yeah Miller backed the NDP for the last 7 years. I mean maybe Britney Spears backed the Republicans when she was 12. But random kids in Louisiana and underemployed city councillors endorsements don't matter until they become important people. You know, like when they become mayor of Toronto. So yes, Miller's endorsement does matter.
Thirdly, this isn't ragging on AA, but the NDP is way ahead in the sign war. Hell the Greens are in contention for second in the sign war (especially in Roncesvalles village). This suggests what I've been saying all along - the Liberal campaign in this riding is a gong show, while the NDP are trying their best, since they really do have a shot - they ARE at over 20% in Ontario. It also suggests that the Green vote is not coming at the expense of the NDP, but of the Liberals.
So I'm finally rendering my verdict - an NDP win in Parkdale-High Park.
10/06/04 Price
Email: [hidden]
I think the Miller endorsement will probably seal the deal for Nash. The NDP now has every reason now to commit major resources in this seat between now and election day to ensure that it ends up in their column.
Email: [hidden]
I have yet to see ANY flyers from Bulte - no one has come to our door, and I haven't seen ANY Liberal workers at the subway stops, or anywhere else in the riding. When you add this to the fact that Bulte doesn't even live in the riding, it doesn't seem like she will have any momentum. I've seen more presence from the NDP, Conservatives, and Greens.
Nash just got a large write-up in this weeks NOW, and seems to be a strong candidate, but Spiegel's literature is pretty slick, probably siphoning some lefty support away from her.
I think there is a possibility of Bulte and Klufas splitting the traditionalist/Eastern European voting, and letting Nash sneak through. My personal call is that this is too close, w/ a slight leaning towards Nash. A 3-or-4 way race, at any rate.
09/06/04 AA
How stupid can the NDP Dippers be? Firstly...when people say 'well Layton is giving her his support'...he obviously has to give her support if she is going to run for his party. Secondly the Miller endorsement means nothing when Miller has supported the NDP Canadidate the last 7 years. Yes the Bulte Team gets the same type of reaction but we aren't so lame to post about it...wow the NDP is really getting desperate.
09/06/04 Clyde aka Bronnie & Clyde
Email: [hidden]
This is gonna be a very, very tough battle in Parkdale-High Park. Nash recently got Mayor Miller's endorsment, which has given her campaign a big boost. On the other hand, the incumbent has a large support base, and the same goes for Gerrard Kennedy - provincially. This riding could very well be won or lost by a thousand or so votes. I do agree with "NP" that the NDP will be putting most of their volunteers and resources to Trinity-Spadina and Toronto-Danforth, but I disagree with the statement that both seats will continue to be held by Libs. The NDP are flying high in both those ridings, and those two seats are most definitely going orange. As far as Parkdale-High Park, way too close to call. Other hot ridings in the GTA which I expect to be a tough race to the finish line include Don Valley West and Beaches-East York. Other than the ones I have mentioned, the rest of the ridings in TO are likely staying Liberal.
08/06/04 Olive_Branch
Email: [hidden]
NDP were second here in the last federal election. On top of that the Dippers and Tories are both way up nationally while the Libs are way down. Add the David Miller endorsement and this riding should be an easy win for NDP.
08/06/04 Marto
Email: [hidden]
I was in this riding on the weekend - Attending the 11th annual Cowanation Street festival - I have to say the NDP were out strongly - not only in signs but in people. I saw a group of people cheer on an NDP volunteer putting up a sign and then ask for one of their own - and other volunteers were going around canvassing. I'm not an NDP supporter - but Peggy Nash seems to be very well organized - and I didn't know who Bulte was in the 4 yrs I lives in that riding. I think that Nash will take this one thanks to the support of Miller and the popularity of Layton in TO.
07/06/04 DL
This riding will go NDP, but not because of Layton or Nash. This is David Miller's neck of the woods and at the present time he can do no wrong. The Miller machine will drive Nash straight into Ottawa.
06/06/04 eddy
Email: pereze@hotmail.com
Yesterday, I walked by the NDP campaign office. I was surprised to see that the entire area around this office is displaying Bulte signs. I guess the people in Junction must like her as much as I do.
06/06/04 P-HP Resident
Email: [hidden]
I have lived in P-HP for over 8 years and do think that an upset, probably favouring the NDP, is possible. This is a multicultural riding, traditionally socially conservative, that has historically gone to the Liberals, for immigration reasons.
However, the current problems that the Liberals have nationally, coupled with changing demographics (more young socially liberal families) have resulted in the ABL (Anybody but Liberal) movement.
Unless Nash and Klufas split this protest vote right down the middle, there is no hope for Bulte. At this point, it looks like Nash, with her social, health and protect agenda, is playing better in the riding than Klufas, although even Klufas may be taking away votes from Bulte. I would estimate that Bulte still has a small lead but her support is an inch deep and, unless helped from the outside, it will collapse by June 28.
05/06/04 roncesvalles
Email: gorunskyf@hotmail.com
Well the dipper bubble has burst. Jack Layton's bus pulled up on Roncesvalles today for a rally, only nobody came. Peggy Nash and bunch of rooters got off the bus, had their rally, yeah Peggy, yeah Jack, and back they got on their bus with hardly a speck of dust disturbed by their passing.
05/06/04 NP
Email: [hidden]
Not only is this riding not going to be close but Nash will do worse than Schmidt did before. I predict that the conservatives will come second in this riding. Why you ask. 1)Neil Speigel is eating the NDP's lunch; 2) the NDP strategy in all the lakeshore Toronto ridings to flood their signs onto people's lawns has backfired and liberals are coming out of the woodwork to prevent a dipper win;and 3) the resurgence of the Conservatives will finally tip the balance of the undecided Liberals to vote Liberal. This consolidation of the large undecided numbers will happen over the next two weeks. Finally, for this riding, I predict that next week when the "dipper central committee" realizes that the cause is lost Nash will lose the party resources which will be concentrated on Danforth and Trinity-Spadina(where they will lose too). All that will be left will be the CAW goon squad.
05/06/04 DD
Email: [hidden]
I'm a traditional PC supporter. The thought of Prime Minister Stephen Harper makes me ill. While I'm not all that happy with the billions of spending promises the liberals are making to buy this election I'm going to vote for them as the lesser evil. I had briefly thought of voting Green but the recent poll numbers have made me re-think that. I've decided.
05/06/04 Benny
Email: [hidden]
Don't worry, plenty Polish people still around and going to vote Bulte. NDP going to wait a long time for all Polish people to die. Until then I hope they hold their breath.
05/06/04 WT
Email: [hidden]
Yesterday Peggy Nash came to our door. She was pleasant enough until she realized that a gay couple intended to vote for Sam Bulte. Then we got the beginning of a sermon on how we should of course vote NDP. Bulte’s support of legislation and speaking out for our rights counts more than attending a gay rights parade.
04/06/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
Here's an interesting blurb. Michael Coren (of the Toronto Sun) said on his political talk show, Michael Coren Live, that he plans on voting for Peggy Nash. If the NDP can rope in Michael Coren, who knows where else this candidate is getting support from.
04/06/04 Caithness
Email: [hidden]
I think it is time to pull this one out of the Liberal win column and at a bare minimum put it into the To-close-to-call category. Peggy Nash has been running a strong campaign, and has gotten great press (see Toronto Star article), and David Miller's endorsement. The air seems rift with rumours that the Liberals are giving up Bulte for dead. /TD>
03/06/04 Logic
Apparently you don't realize but signs don't vote. And the NDP put signs on random people's lawns so how can you even put that into account?
03/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
My informant in this riding tells me the key will be which party best manages to get its supporters to the polls on June 28th. The Liberals should be able to beat the NDP, but Miller's support for the NDP candidate should make it close. My gut instinct says Liberal. But my gut's been wrong before.
03/06/04 MS
Email: [hidden]
The impression that Parkdale HighPark has become an feeding ground of all white and non-ethnic citizens is absurd. This area is one of the most multicultural ridings in the country - and there has not been a mass exodus. Furthermore - remember that Bulte only lost 1 poll in the last election - she will lose more this time, but not enough for an upset.
02/06/04 Lukasz Golas
Email: [hidden]
I think many long-time residents, few of us left there may be, will be surprised to find that Peggy Nash will take this riding. More than a third of residents have lived in the area less than two years. With the real estate boom, half of my Polish neighbours have sold their properties for a hefty price to young, left-wing, educated professionals seeking to avoid the suburbs. The only residents who remain are those dependent on social housing, a socio-economic group who has responded well to the message of the NDP.
The Miller endorsement is sure to clinch the seat for Nash. While Miller only represented half the riding on council, it was the other half that voted most strongly for him in the past municipal election.
It may be close, but this riding in transition is sure to elect Peggy Nash.
02/06/04 W Lambert
Email: [hidden]
I dropped flyers in 12 polls today and Peggy Nash has a pretty good edge over Sarmite Bulte in terms of lawn signs. Conservatives appear to have even less support than the Greens here. Nash will do very well with a strong endorsement from Mayor David Miller and with Liberal support down right across Toronto. Some might think the area too affluent to go NDP, but there are a ton of rooming houses and tenants probably outnumber the homeowners. Bulte is also a non-resident who has held the seat for 2 terms, but seems to be anything but a well known name in the riding, or elsewhere. She may give Nash a respectable fight, but the NDP will take this one by a decent margin of victory.
02/06/04 AA
The NDP are going to win. Their decision to scare little old ladies will definetley win them the election. Yeah right, some of you are just plain dumb. How is the Bulte Campaign not organized? Just because the NDP went on to everyone's lawn and put a freaking sign doesn't mean they are organized, it means that they are corrupt. Regardless of what you say the tides are turning and not only will Bulte win this election, she'll win it by a fair margin. All the people on this message board who say well you know since Miller supported Nash, then Nash will win. You apparentely don't know how to connect the dots. I'm not sure if you realized but Miller has supported the NDP candidate for three elections in a row, what would make it different if he didn't support the NDP candidate. It would actually be quite a surprise if he didn't. This will actually be bad news for Miller because people come to realize he is more left then he comes off of after all.
02/06/04 PW
Email: [hidden]
After the big flood of signs during the first day or two it seems that there are many fewer NDP signs around. Obviously, the tactic of placing signs without permission has backfired. It couldn't have happened to a more deserving group of people. Maybe the NDP will run Paul Schmidt again next election. He might have been a windbag but he was at least a more ethical person.
01/06/04 BL
Email: [hidden]
The word is Bulte is sinking faster than the party itself. The national problems are well documented but Bulte's organization here is abysmal. No website and no message may mean no re-election. The Miller endorsement of Nash hurts and recent articles in the Toronto Star highlight Nash local strength and Bulte weakness on education through her copyright work. Call this one too-close-to-call at best.
01/06/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
The NDP are known for "paid goons coming through sticking signs on a lot of lawns without the nicety of asking permission." This will backfire.
I must second the "watch Spiegel" comment below. Absolutely. He's easily the best constitutency organizer and campaigner the Greens have in Toronto.
He was also solidly behind Miller for Mayor, as were almost all Greens (if you want to know who Greens support for Mayor, ask Jane Jacobs who she says to vote for). So it's a mistake to assume that all Miller's votes go to Nash.
I'm calling this one Liberal, also because the NDP will put all they've got in Toronto into Olivia Chow in Trinity-Spadina, and Jack Layton in Toronto-Danforth, and Michael Shapcott in Toronto-Centre, in that order. They are going to make this riding a distant fourth priority, and that's not enough to win it against a sitting Liberal NDP and a mean lean Green.
29/05/04 Wallace Emerson
Email: [hidden]
First of all, the rumors put forward by Janet Patterson are not unique to the NDP or the CAW. Tony Ruprecht has long been associated with going to the homes of non-English speakers and asking them "permission" in English. I'm not taking a position on the matter, but this sort of thing is not unique to the NDP. Yes, the Liberals are capable of this sort of thing.
As many posters have pointed out, there has been a good deal of "upscaling" of this once mostly working class riding (with exceptions like Baby Point and parts of High Park). The largely Eastern European population tends to be rather anti-NDP. Now places like High Park, Bloor West Village and even Parkdale are increasingly populated with young professionals, many of whom have progressive values and would quite comfortably vote for Jack Layton and the NDP. After Trinity-Spadina and Toronto-Danforth (tied for #1) and Beaches-East York (#3) this is #4 in terms of likelihood to go NDP in Toronto.
Looking at the numbers, Ontario's NDP support plummeted from 20% in 1988 to 8% in 2000. This occurred more in working class areas than in increasingly "yuppie" areas like Trinity-Spadina or P-HP, where NDP support stayed about the same. P-HP's NDP vote went up slightly from 18% to 19%. With the NDP's support back to the 20% level in Ontario, and I imagine this increased support is more concentrated in urban Toronto than anywhere else, I think this riding is most likely to go NDP.
Prediction: NDP 38%, LIB 35%, CPC 20%, Greens 6%, others 1%
28/05/04 Jason
Email: [hidden]
Adorable, my dear Liberal counterpart. Ms. Nash's campaign is simply well organized, not over-zeallous. It's the oldest trick in the book to claim lawn signs over-represent support.
You must realize that with the amount of time Ms. Nash spent as assistant to Mr. Hargrove, she is no stranger to public mobilization or efficient organization. I haven't seen a single sign pulled down. I have however, seen many a Sarmite sign defaced by angry constituents. (For example, Inges Laundromat on Roncesvalles.)
26/05/04 Joey Black
Yes, I saw the mobs of UAW paid goons coming through sticking signs on a lot of lawns without the nicety of asking permission. When you are the righteous, working in a holy cause, you can justify any means. Even if your party really doesn't have the ultimate truth or the ultimate answers, but is really just as confused as everyone else.
Only problem is that there are now a lot of nominal NDP supporters who are pissed off at the NDP.
One rumour I heard is that they just stuck signs on lawns from the David Miller lists. Guess they didn't hear that a lot of people who weren't NDP supported Miller for Mayor...
26/05/04 Peter M.
Email: [hidden]
This will be very close, and the Greens may also have a say in who gets elected. It all depends on how well the Liberals and NDP can pull the vote. There may be just enough yuppies to turn this NDP by a sliver.
26/05/04 as
Email: [hidden]
I heard today that Miller endorsed Pegy Nash. I find this a bit surprising because in the municipal election Miller was definitely cozying up to Liberal and even red Tory operatives. I have the distinct impression that Miller has national ambitions. Maybe that is why he is endorsing Paggy Nash, hoping that she will take out Bulte so that Miller can run against Nash for the Liberals in the following election and contend for the leadership after Martin. It may sound crazy but this has happened before. Pierre Trudeau was a longtime dipper before he was called to Ottawa by Pearson, and Trudeau got there by stabbing his friend Charles Taylor (NDP candidate, in the back).
26/05/04 Matthew Hammond
Email: [hidden]
This riding will be close and is certainly not a Liberal sure-shot as this prediction signifies and I estimate that the NDP challenger will eclipse the Liberal incumbent in Parkdale-High Park; a few reasons:
1) Demographics: increasingly, because of gentrification of more central areas, this part of the city is increasingly home to a greater number of students, young and educated professionals, and tenants unable to afford the rent prices in neighbouring Trinity-Spadina; in short, the demographics of this riding are looking increasingly more like T-S, the traditional epicentre of NDP support in the city of Toronto.
2) The Layton and Miller factors - even ignoring the above data - the NDP got 20% last election without these figures propping up the local candidate. Assuredly their support and precense adds at least another 5% to this 20%.
3) Elections Canada targeting the 'youth vote'. If succesful, this will disproportionately benefit the NDP (and the Greens even more so) which I think will push this over the top for the NDP.
25/05/04 Janet Patterson
Email: [hidden]
This weekend, you might have thought that the NDP threat was real - but wait - then reality dawns on you. The NDP, in this riding all over, both in Parkdale where I live and in High-Park, the Junction and Swansea - placed signs on peoples lawns without their permission. We are not talking a mistake or two - we are talking massive removals by local residents of NDP signs that they didn't want. I am personally disgusted, as I know are many of my friends and family in the area. This will not sit well with voters in this riding - the CAW has made a grave grave error.
25/05/04 Greg Dwulit
Email: [hidden]
I think this race should be too close to call. Several hours after the election call, a co-worker of mine who lives in the riding noticed the large amount of NDP/Peggy Nash signs all over the riding on people's homes. This is a riding that the NDP is targeting hard.
25/05/04 Ken
Email: [hidden]
Actually, the basic Nipissing riding lost far more French votes than it gained as West Nipissing, including Sturgeon Falls, was lopped off. What it gained in the north was far more anglophone than francophone.
What also hurts in the north is the loss of the former Liberal party executive. Rota may speak French and have some vague connections there, but the structure is gone because for whatever reason they got angry at him.
McDonald was a popular North Bay city councillor, far more popular than Rota, and likely would have held on to his provincial seat if it weren't for the anti-Tory backlash.
If Martin runs a solid campaign Rota has a good chance of holding onto Nipissing-Temiskaming, but any more scandal and Mcdonald's popularity will turn the riding Tory.
25/05/04 Jermain Defoe
Email: [hidden]
I think it's fair to describe P-HP as too close to call. As discussed below, David Miller has endorsed Peggy Nash. He did so on CBC's Metro Morning this morning. Also, as clipped and attached below, it would seem that the Libs are willing to acknowledge the race will be close.
From the Toronto Star, May 24, 2004
Liberals aim to end bridge feud
...Liberal strategists confide they are worried the waterfront issue could cost the party Mills' seat, as well as that of Trinity-Spadina MP Tony Ianno, who is running against Councillor Olivia Chow. She is also Layton's wife.
Some Liberals fear they could also lose two other seats to the NDP: Parkdale-High Park, now held by Sarmite Bulte, to Peggy Nash; and Beaches-East York, represented by Maria Minna, to Peter Tabuns.
24/05/04 MJL
Email: leemj@eudoramail.com
Lets assume, for the benefit of the doubt, that shifts in federal NDP support in Ontario have occured uniformly across the province. Yes, lets assume that the dippers have won over as many new supporters in Simcoe-Grey and Leeds-Grenville as they have in Toronto-Danforth and Parkdale-High Park.
(these were all made using UBC's election stock market vote migration matrix, and assuming that NDP rises were at the expense of the Liberals, and that CPC decline from the combined PC-CA 2000 result benefitted the Liberals)
Here are what the results would be in this riding, based on the recent Ipsos-Reid poll (May 22nd):
Liberals: 38.9% NDP: 32.1% Other: 6.3% CPC: 18.8%
(does not add up to 100 because of some former PC/CA voters not voting)
Now lets apply the less favourable (to the NDP) Compas poll from May 21st:
Liberals: 40.9% NDP: 29.6% Other: 3.2% CPC: 26.4%
(other vote is lower as its re-distribution was needed to make results add up to the numbers in the polls).
Now, the effects of Sarmite Bulte are neutral at best. She has virtually no profile (a few references to her in the papers as one of the only supporters of Sheila Copps and the position of parliamentary secretary to the heritage minister from 2000-2003 are not things that the average voter knows about). Her profile in the riding, as well, is marginal at best (and I live here) and she has yet to shirk the stigma of being a parachute candidate. So, at best, local candidacy doesn't affect the results.
Now let us consider that the assumption of uniform increase of voter support across the province for the NDP is unrealistic. Anti-gay marriage voters in the eastern townships aren't likely to warm over to a leftish Torontonian. How significant does that effect have to be? Enough to break a gap of about 8 points between the LPC incumbent and the NDP challenge. I do think, therefore, that it is fair to say that the Liberals and NDP are running quite near each other at the moment, and it is the course of the campaign which will determine the victor here. Had the NDP result in 2000 been 20%, I imagine a significant number of those with a tendency to be chicaned by things ending in 9 (or 99) posting here would change their tunes.
23/05/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
Time to retarct this Liberal prediction. The Liberals are sinking like a stone and the 22% NDP in Ontario is almost certainy concentrated in ridings like this one. The Liberal MP is very low visibility and the NDP is putting a major priority on here. As mentioned the David Miller factor cannot be overlooked and there is no love lost between David Miller and Sarmite Bulte who backed Barbara Hall for mayor.
19/05/04 ep
Email: [hidden]
The NDP have no chance now that the CAW is on the verge of sewering Air Canada. I don't think that the people of this riding will want to be represented by the CAW.
19/05/04 Somebody in Ottawa
Email: [hidden]
Word among Liberals in Ottawa (who can't believe the disorganization of their own party's central campaign) is that this riding is already lost.
Between Layton's popularity (long coat tails in the lakeshore ridings), David Miller's local machine and the fall-out from both ad-scam and provincial Liberal promise-breaking... this one can only be won if Ontario swings toward the Liberals. Even then, Bulte isn't a favourite among the Martin Liberal crowd. They might just let hang out of spite.
Regardless, their own polls show Ontario, Toronto in particular, is going the other way this election. Liberals in my neck of the woods know they "might" be able to save this one (if they wanted to), but have already surrendered this one to the NDP.
Time to reconsider this prediction?
12/05/04 T.M.
Email: [hidden]
Bulte will win, sadly. That said... The NDP got 25% in this riding in 1997. It's not completely out of the question they'll near 30 this time. PC/CA combined in 2000 was 25%. That should hold. Sam will win, but it won't be as much a cakewalk as it's been. Lib 40% NDP 30% CPC 25% Green 4%
12/05/04 PP
Email: [hidden]
Sam Bulte has been a fantastically hardworking MP for this area for 7 years. She has been a strong activist for the community, supporting local health care initiatives, business development in the Junction, and strongly promoting the arts, as just a few examples. Her own ethnic background(her parents were WWII refugees from Latvia) has made her keenly aware of the needs of the many recently arrived immigrant communities as well as the more established arrivals from the same era as her parents. Her strong support of these communities is frequently recognized by them and they will be there on election day to support her.
The NDP has never even come close to winning this riding in a federal election, a distant 2nd in each of the last two elections may not be repeated if the conservative vote coalesces.
10/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Once, P-HP was a predominantly Polish-Liberal-versus-Tory affair, but yuppification/creative-classification + the federal PC collapse has awakened unprecedented NDP latencies to the point where it now resembles a western counterbalance to Beaches-East York; Paul Schmidt's '97 and '00 results would have been credible even in the Lewis or Broadbent years. (Granted, the superlative's blurred by P-HP's having become Gerard Kennedy's provincial Liberal fortress; yet mind the fact that with Kennedy's left-Liberalism accounted for, the Kennedy-NDP-Green "united left" scored over **80%** in 2003!) With that recent record in mind (as well as Bulte's, what with her non-residency, her falling short of an absolute majority twice over, her having gone from a Martinite to a Coppsite and whatever), there's no doubt Layton's eyeing this as one of the NDP's "essential-5-or-so" in Toronto. And what could have clinched it: a David Miller mayoral defeat (thereby presto: one powe! rhouse star candidate). So, they have to make do with Peggy Nash, not that that's bad or anything. But the other real chink in the NDP armour is the David Miller of the Greens: Neil Spiegel, an astonishingly credible campaigner who garnered the best Green result in Toronto and the third best in Ontario in 2003. And he won't be rolling over and playing dead so easily, even in the face of Laytonmania...
06/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
This riding will be a close race between the NDP and the Liberals. I can understand why this riding was put in too close to call until now, and I wish the webmaster will start calling some other obvious (namely NDP) ridings across the province. This one will be a lot closer than some Toronto downtown ridings, and Ottawa Centre which will deffinately go NDP. Nonetheless, the NDP percentage of 19% here last election is very high, and I see them getting 30-40% here, with the Liberals around 40%. It should be close, but I see the Liberal support here too large for the NDP to catch up.
04/05/04 Janet Patterson
Email: [hidden]
I don't get the fact that people are calling this close - Bulte is going to win and by a considerable margin. All this talk about Miller and the need for a left voice is silly - the riding already has one. Especially now with Copps out of the picture, Bulte is probably the most left member of the liberal caucus. She is a tireless supporter of the arts, women's causes (people easily forget about her recent task force on women entrepeneurs) and the environment. With specific mention to the arts, she is a huge supporter of the CBC and I believe she is now the chair of the Heritage committee. The people who are discounting Bulte in favour of the NDP on this website are people who never voted for her in the past. Bulte is a smart and compassionate leader for this community regardless if you live at Dufferin & King or Babypoint & Jane. She involves herself in the community much more than her predecessor did and she does it because she cares, NOT because of visibility. People in this area are informed citizens, and because of this they will reach out to Ms. Bulte for a third term.
04/05/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
There's a couple of comments I would like to adress following the previous post.
First of all, Sam Bulte is not a Polish Canadian, she is actually of Latvian descent, secondly Polish/Ukrainian Canadians hardly vote ( Trust me, I know the lack of interest within the PL commmunity or the complete lack of understanding what representation would bring to us ), The PLC could run a candidate of any ethnicity here and believe me they'd win hands down.
Secondly, I don't think Sam Bulte is being alienated by the Martinites. The matter of the fact is that she, of course, supported Sheila Copps, but she is nowhere near as left wing as Sheila, especially economically.
After all, she produced a large and extensive report on woman entrepreneurship for the Martin government and was publically being congratulated by the Martinite ministers, so any question on her alienation is not true. Furthermore, she's always kept the control of the riding association even during the Copps' failed campaign. Mrs Nash is hardly known by anyone in the riding so she doesn't stand a chance esp. given the GP at 5 % in the polls, Bulte's *so called* lack of support by the PLC is more of a myth than reality.
03/05/04 MJL
Email: leemj@eudoramail.com
A lot of people here are presuming that the Green Party, which did quite well here provincially, will steal NDP votes. However, consider that, while the Greens, running with Spiegel provincially did well, the NDP improved on its previous election result considerably. Not to mention that in 1999 they ran with Irene Atkinson, a popular school board trustee, whereas their candidate in 2003 was much less well known.
Anybody who looked at the campaign literature of the Green Party provincially (or their platform, which supported deregulating hydro, corporate/income tax cuts, and a switch from the progressive property tax to a regressive tax on land), and their brochure with a token ex-Tory, ex-Liberal, and ex-Dipper, could see that they certainly aren't targeting the NDP. Another way to not target the NDP, is to run a Harvard-trained economist like Spiegel.
I don't doubt that the Green Party will make a strong showing here, but what I question is who will vote for them. The NDP has a significant base among the relatively poor Parkdale population - and last time I checked "green tax shifts" and bicycle lanes were not high on their lists of priorities. Rather the Green Party seems a natural fit for the former PC Party (red Tories who came out quite strongly in the past for the likes of Derwyn Shea and Annamarie Castrilli, provincially, and Saundercook municipally) - fiscally to the right, socially progressive enough - which is likely not too fond of the more neoconservative form of the CPC, a party they know isn't going to win in Parkdale High-Park.
Joey Black, unfortunately for Ms. Bulte the populace of the riding seems not to be aware of her pleasant demeanor. She is far less visible than Gerard Kennedy and K-K have been over the years. Further, one of the few things anybody knows about her is that she was parachuted into the riding, in order to increase the number of women in the Liberal Party. This meant removing an incumbent and breaking the Liberal tradition of running a Polish candidates, both - for the purposes of winning - faux pas. Additionally Bulte will be a pariah in a Martin caucus, for having backed Ms. Copps.
Dean, affluence is a very poor indicator of where a riding is going to, especially in Toronto politics, because there are different types of affluence. There's "upper middle class civil servant affluence" (the sort that could certainly buy into the middle class urban socialism of a Jack Layton or a David Miller), there's "successful entrepreneur affluence" (guess what, they vote Tory), etc. Further, attributing the switch to Liberal support to the loss of Etobicoke is kind of ignoring the tectonic shift in the Canadian party system, what with, you know, the death of red Toryism (which I would argue still has some strength in this riding - especially if you look at the relative success of Castrilli compared to the more Neo-conservative Stephen Snell; or the fact that this riding shifted away from Mulroney federally in the free trade election of '88).
Sorauren Ave., some pertinent observations, regarding the type of leftism Peggy Nash represents. She could still win over the Parkdale vote with those sorts of credentials, and we mustn't forget the strong image Jack Layton presents on the sort of issues on which this riding is to the left. As for strategic voting, this has indeed made a difference provincially, however, much of that had to do with various public sector unions (especially the teacher's union) backing certain candidates. As far as I know, OSSTF et al. do not endorse federal candidates. More to the point, this is about the worst riding to vote strategically in, as the chances of a Conservative pickup are limited - strategic voters want to prevent Conservative gains, but many, as left-wing Liberals, probably wouldn't mind a minority government to keep Paul Martin in their neck of the woods.
1) The NDP-backed candidate municipally was David Smaller, who was making a fairly strong run with a limited budget, however, he backed out because of health reasons near the end of the race. Thus NDP'ers would have voted for Watson...
2) But fair enough, lets discount the eastern ward - the western ward was still close with the leftist candidates (Duncan and Kumorek)edging out those on the right. David Miller tidal wave you say? Would that be the kind of thing that would happen if - oh I don't know - a popular left-wing Toronto city councillor were to run for an important office?
3) But then you go into history, bringing up the 1995 provincial election when this riding, like many others, elected a Tory. This displays a fundamental misunderstanding of the kind of Conservatism this riding displays - the kind that makes Stephen Snell fare poorly, the kind that voted NDP in 1990, the kind that consistently elected a schoolboard trustee who was a Tory-turned-Dipper (who ran provincially in 1999), and the kind which left the Tories federally in the free trade election - its a red Toryism, my friend.
Yes, I agree about Nash, but as to losing in 1993, that's a phenomena that many NDP'ers experienced in a bad election, fought in the wake of the Rae years; if that's a significant vice, you'd pretty much have to write off the NDP everywhere. I'm not calling this riding for anybody - the Liberals will probably win - but an NDP pickup is surely a reasonable possibility.
(for the record I'm not an NDP'er, I'll probably vote Tory, though the Green Party also has a certain appeal).
03/05/04 Allan Solly
Email: [hidden]
In 1997 the NDP thought that they could win this riding against a newcomer to politics, Sam Bulte. In their deluded fanaticism they vandalized their opponents' signs and in the last hour on voting day they bused in homeless people to fraudulently vote. For all their trouble they won one poll. With a CAW candidate running they will undoubtedly resort to even more venal tricks with a very similar result(losing big time) because this time they not have to deal with Bulte who has spent 7 years investing in this riding, but Neil Speigal to eat their lunch on the Green side.
03/05/04 AA
Email: [hidden]
I don't quite understand some of thinking that goes into the posts below. It will be a Liberal land-side in Parkdale High-Park, no doubt in my mind. So what if she supported Sheila Copps? She was also appointed by Mr. Martin as Ontario Caucas Chair and has done a fine job, and let me just add she is the only woman out of the chairs. She has served this riding with a great deal of pride, and has shown that she can be a strong leader. If anything Peggy Nash is not going to get more votes then Paul Schmidt did, someone who people know. What I am afraid of though, is what the tatics of this unionized-thinker are. I fear for Sarmite Bulte for the union people don't play very nicely and will be out their knocking down as many signs as they can. I remember last election when 'somebody' was takings signs from people's lawns and putting them on different people's lawns, the joke was on them though because later that day it rained and those cardboard Paul Schmidt signs sagged away. Anyway back on topic, Sarmite Bulte is going to win this without and doubt and once again proove that you dippers are wrong. I would have loved for the desperate Paul Schmidt to run again, but I guess Peggy Nash will have to take his role in being desperate.
02/05/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
It is a fallacy to assume the greens will take from the NDP vote. The Greens are more aligned with the Red Tories than any other traditional grouping. The next biggest grouping are those that are Trudeau liberals.
It is the Liberal that will lose votes in this riding to the Greens, not the NDP.
24/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
I'm afaird that this riding is destined to go Liberal...in fact, I wonder why it is even considered too close to call by the election project. In 1976, the riding lost most of its affluent areas when the Etobicoke sections were removed...That made the riding a marginal to Conservative riding to one, now, that is predomiantly Liberal...too affluent (with Humber and Swansea) to go NDP...not affluent enough (with Parkdale) to go Conservative. I predict the Liberals will get 45%, the united Conservatives about 28%, NDP about 22% and the Greens about 5%...
21/04/04 Joey Black
Email: [hidden]
I agree that anything is possible here, but am puzzled by some of the sweeping statements about candidates. I have lived here for several years, and have met Bulte several times, I find her approachable and competent. As far as being on the outs with the Martin crowd, why did they appoint her chair of the Ontario caucus, the by far the majority of the government seats? People say that Nash is a strong candidate, but could someone tell me why? I've never met her or heard of her, and just being an assistant to a union leader isn't awe-inspiring all by itself. I still worry more about Prime Minister Harper than about NDP-Liberal rivalry.
19/04/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Sam Bulte, gone. Sad but true. Peggy Nash is going to send her packing. Just like Sylvia Watson scared K-K away. Couldn't we be free of Ruprecht too? This just isn't Lib turf anymore, David Miller chased them away. Funny but Peggy and Olivia are headed to the big noise on the Rideau but Jack isn't. Ain't life strange.
Sarmite's time to go back to Forest Hill where she lives. Should have run there. Then maybe we wouldn't have seen Carolyn Bennett -- but that's another story.
06/04/04 Sorauren Ave.
Email: [hidden]
I've attended several events in this riding over the last while and I think that a few other factors will play into how this riding votes:
1) The riding is actually composed of several distinctly different neighbourhoods with different agendas (Parkdale, Roncesvalles Village, Old High Park, Bloor West Village, Swansea, Baby Point)
2) The Green Party is very quickly growing its support in the riding (over 2700 votes in the provincial election) and will rob the NDP of votes
3) Many NDP supporters in several of the Parkdale-High Park neighbourhoods will be scared away by Peggy Nash's tie to major unions. The neighbourhood has a pro-left lean in terms of environmental and social justice issues and not necessarily labour, hence the growing Green vote
4) The most important factor might end up being how close the federal race is. You could see a large swing vote to fight The Conservatives on a national level.
01/04/04 EP
Email: [hidden]
Peggy Nash may be a big name in the Labour/NDP circle being Buzz righthand-person, but is hardly a household name in the riding. After having the backbone to back Sheila Copps for leadership, the three letters that Sam Bulte has to worry about is not NDP but PMO.
01/04/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
I have seen some screwy math regarding municipal election results in previous posts. To discredit the below entirely: 1) In ward 14 Watson was seen as the only credible candidate, period, and had the bulk of Liberals provincially and federally support her. The NDP outright endorsed and campaigned for one of their executive members, a Mr. Walt Jarsky, who finished 5th or something and barely broke 500 votes. 2) Ward 13 (western parkdale - high park) is not an NDP ward at all. Poll by poll results have consistently shown the NDP in 3rd there, provincially and federally. This ward includes High Park, Baby Point and the Bloor West Village, areas that before 1995 redistribution provincially, elected a Mike Harris Tory (Derwyn Shea). Ward 13 does however strongly support David Miller - not because he is NDP, far from it, but because he is an articulate well-educated lawyer who was clearly underemployed as a municipal councillor. Even when Miller himself was the federa! l candidate here in 1993 he didn't even get his deposit back and finished a very, very distant third. If Kumorek was successful in getting some votes it was because he rode the Miller tidal wave, in his former Ward, for every inch he could, and despite the full-fledged full-court press to elect him, still couldn't pull it off.
I've been politically active in this area for many, many years and have never heard of "Peggy Nash." If the NDP wanted to pick this up they should have brought in a heavy hitter, not a union paratrooper.
31/03/04 MJL
Email: [hidden]
As to municipal elections, there was a vote split in ward 13, with Kumorek running alongside Margo Duncan (the 2003 NDP provincial candidate). As a result, Saundercook was able to win.
Further, in ward 14, there has been an effective sea change with the sizeable majority won by Sylvia Watson. Ed Zelinski, working with the nomination of former councillor Kuczynski, and wide support from the Polish community, received about half as many votes as Sylvia.
In terms of popular support, Parkdale-High Park didn't really trade one right winger for another on city council, in both cases the 'left' won the popular vote. With the Liberal move to the right under Martin, the Libs are fighting for the Zelinski-Saundercook vote, which is simply insufficient to take the riding.
Thus if you want to use municipal politics as a guide (as the gentleman below me did) you have to account for the numbers:
Saundercook + Zelinski = 7909 + 3453 = 11,362
Watson + Duncan + Kumorek = 7414 + 1455 + 6802 = 15669
28/03/04 The Masked Tory
This riding was NOT carried by NDP councillors in the recent Municipal election. While Sylvia Watson is clearly a NDPer, Bill Saundercook is at best, a Blue Liberal....he is actually more like a Red Tory.
26/03/04 Jesse Hoffman
I have personally met the NDP candidate Peggy Nash, and let me tell you, she is a very, very strong candidate. Without her it would a struggle for the NDP to win, but since she's running I see this riding going NDP.
24/03/04 S Meades
Email: [hidden]
Again, odd that the predictions for "too close to call" and NDP outnumber the predictions for a Liberal keep by 5:1, yet still the official prediction is for the Liberals.
Anyhow, I also think this riding will go NDP. Peggy Nash is a superb person and would make an excellent MP. I think once people see that, Sarmite Bulte (who I believe actually lives in St. Paul's) will be edged out. Bulte is no longer of use to the Martin government, which says a lot about their conservative patriarchal politics. This riding was also swept by NDP candidates in the municipal election, and is David Miller's original stomping ground.
20/03/04 David Miller
Email: [hidden]
I wouldn't write off the NDP here. They fared very strong here in 2000 federally. I wouldn't rely too much on provincial - as Gerard Kennedy is at the far left of the Liberal Party and also due to strategic voting, cutting into NDP support. I expect it will be very close.
Prediction: LIB 38%, NDP 38%, CPC 19%, others 5%
20/03/04 MJL
Email: [hidden]
This riding is not the Liberal lock which many are likely to assume it is. Certainly, the most likely outcome is indeed, the re-election of Sarmite Bulte. However, there are some factors that are not in her favour.
Firstly, Bulte is not on Paul Martin's good side - this means when it comes time for Martin to plan out where he is going to visit, and where the Liberals are going to spend campaign resources, this riding may not get priority. The second this race stops being about Paul Martin vs. the other guys, it becomes rather the Liberals vs. the other guys, or worse, Sarmite Bulte (an unpopular parachute candidate) vs. the other guys. When that happens, there is a chance for change.
It is also worth mentioning that this riding is not the Liberal lock many seem to assume it is, simply because it is in the GTA. Federally the Liberals have held it since 1988, but provincially the NDP won it in 1990, the Tories in 1995, with the Liberals recapturing it in 1999 (in a fairly close race by Toronto standards - despite Gerard Kennedy, a prominent frontbencher, being the Liberal candidate).
Even if we make projections based on the latest polls in Ontario (the Ipsos-Reid poll from late March 2-7), it is going to be a close race. The Liberals are down 4% provincially from their 2000 results, the NDP is up 8%, and the combined PC/CA vote is down 1%. That places it as a 27-46-24 (NDP/LPC/CPC) race. Given that it is unlikely that most of those NDP gains have been taking place in the 905 or in those ridings with Bruce or Simcoe in their names, the 8% provincial jump of the NDP is probably greater in GTA ridings. Further, the Liberal fall is likely to be greater in a riding with an unpopular incumbent.
As of this point, it is probable that the Liberals would still win - probably quite handily, but a 16 point lead is not insurmountable when you are running against "Sam" Bulte.
19/03/04 Elwood
Email: [hidden]
There may be wishful thinking going on around here, but I suspect that it's the Liberals who are doing it. Change is in the air this year, and the political arrangements of the past decade are beginning to collapse. Past election results don't mean a whole lot in circumstances like this, and urban seats smack in the middle of the nation's biggest media market are going to be more volatile than any others. I'd say that both the NDP and the Conservatives have a chance here, but I suspect that Stephen Harper isn't going to play well in Toronto. Change is coming and I give the edge in this seat to the NDP.
18/03/04 EP
Email: [hidden]
The NDP is not even going to come close. Just look at the result from the last election and from the provincial election, it is clear that this is yet another wishful thinking for the dipper.
17/03/04 Marto
Email: [hidden]
Sam Bulte is going to be in trouble here - This is one of those ridings that Jack Layton is going to have a big influence on and Bulte is a nobody going nowhere fast. Look for this riding to be an NDP upset
16/03/04 Price
Email: [hidden]
This will be one to watch, a real test of just how far a revitalized NDP under Jack Layton might go. The New Democrats are fielding a strong and articulate candidate in Peggy Nash of the CAW. What's more, this area is the homebase of David Miller, and with the federal Liberals in disarray, the bloom coming off the rose of their provincial cousins, and a Toronto-based NDP leader, the New Democrats are poised to do better federally in To. than they have in any election since 1972 (when David Lewis won 5 seats in Metro Toronto). Parkdale-High Park's low profile Liberal incumbent definitely vulnerable to an NDP surge.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster