Election Prediction Project
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Parry Sound-Muskoka
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:11 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:41 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
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Jo-Anne Boulding
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Glen Hodgson
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Andy Mitchell
Keith Montgomery

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Parry Sound-Muskoka (100.0%)
Hon. Andy Mitchell

2000 Result/Résultats:
17,287 47.59%
9,100 25.05%
6,854 18.87%
1,620 4.46%
1,465 4.03%

Parry Sound-Muskoka
(192/197 polls, 63770/64242 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
It's going to be a close one and while Mitchell has been a pretty good member, I think Montgomery is going to ride the "winds-of-change" message to Ottawa. Hold on to your hats though, less than 500 votes will make the difference here.
22/06/04 UJJ
Email: [hidden]
The all candidates debate was held in Huntsville last night. The dynamics were completely different from the Leader's debate. There was great agreement among the NDP, Green and Liberal candidates and the conservative was very often at odds with the other 3. He was an unimpressive candidate in that he had prepared sheets that he would find and then read in response to the questions put to him. He didn't seem capable of speaking extemporaneously. He also froze every time the 30 second warning bell rang, in mid sentence, even when reading and at one point exclaimed, "I keep hearing bells" and referred to the Liberals as "lunatics running the asylum....".
16/06/04 Jesse H
Email: [hidden]
What about Keith Montgomery's profile as a candidate? This guy has nothing going for him. Take a look at this website; I didn't see any political experience or any other significant leadership. He has lost once before - that just about sums up the experience he brings to the table. If it comes down to the quality of the candidate then Andy Mitchell will win, hands down.
Furthermore, one of the big reasons Parry Sound-Muskoka is consdered a traditionally Conservative riding is because they elected the same guy 6 times! Stan Darling was the MP for Parry Sound-Muskoka for six terms of office. Provincially, Ernie Eves also clung to power in Parry Sound for an extended period of time (before the riding was amalgamated). The point is that the voters in this constituency like to pick a candidate and stick with him, so if I were blue, I wouldn't be inclined to get my hopes up. Andy Mtichell has dug himself in here, and he will not be easily displaced. He'll probably be a rising Liberal star for a while yet.
15/06/04 Stacey
Email: [hidden]
Seeing the number of Liberal signs up around town my thought is that Andy Mitchell will be our elected leader...However, Although he has been so active in the community and is a good guy and good for this area...I think there are a number of people who just want the Paul/Jean Liberals out. I believe those people will not flaunt there conservative support, but will vote conservative at the polls. Unfortunately Andy Mitchell may lose his seat because of it.
13/06/04 Alix James
Email: [hidden]
Anyone else find it interesting that the Bracebridge Examiner (which is pretty Liberal anyway - the publisher's son used to be in Andy Mitchell's political staff) has turned the anti-Tory tap to FULL? I mean, dragging out Dick Smythe for a front page "article" that did little but slam Harper is pretty much the depth of yellow "journalism". And to think I used to like Ted Brittan when I wrote for the paper...
12/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
To corect the previous posts this was won by a split right vote in 1993 and 1997. Also, prior to 1993 this was a Tory stronghold for over 40 years. Meaning unless the Liberals lift their polling to 2000 levels this riding is going CPC.
06/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
If you want proof that being a so-called good politician doesn't guarantee keeping a seat, refer provincially to Tory Al McDonald next door in Nipissing. (Besides, out here in the Liberal-but-maybe-not-for-much-longer hinterland, a reasonable cabinet-type guy like Andy Mitchell is probably more vulnerable than a no-nonsense populist like Ben Serre.) One thing I'd like to watch is how the Greens might do--although it's last year's provincial candidate Glen Hodgson running, as opposed to Richard Thomas, the most successful Green in Ontario, ever...
04/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
You've got to expect this seat to go Tory. It is very much an all-Ontario blue Tory /red Tory riding. Goes Liberal under extreme circumstances. A red wave would be needed. Not this time.
03/06/04 Rich
Email: [hidden]
Although I do recognize that Mr Mitchell is a very good politician, I believe it is a bit misleading to say that vote splitting had nothing to do with him getting elected. The results in the 2000 election show him winning a clear plurality over the conservative candidates. However, it was the only election since '93 that that happened. Further, this was likely due to the traditional conservative vote staying home. Mr Mitchell consistently takes around 17,000 votes. With a faltering liberal campaign look for that number to drop and the Keith Montgomery and the conservatives to win on election night.
03/06/04 Charles Wilson
Email: [hidden]
I do not think for one minute that the Regressive Conservatives have any hope of winning this riding. Andy Mitchell is a good statesman for this riding and regardless of what anyone who say there may have been some vote splitting here between the Insert Name Here Party (weather it be Reform, CRAP, Alliance, or what ever they choose to call themselves) and the Progressive Conservatives there was never enough votes to defeat Andy, even when a P.C. star candidate was running in his party they could not defeat the best M.P. in the House. And to the person who was calling him Andy Scott, if you cannot name the member running in your riding, then you shouldn't be making predictions in this Riding, get the facts before you open your mouth and let nonsense come out.
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Chris we don't mean to burst your bubble, but this was never a vote splitting riding. Look at the numbers and add them up. Grant, the incumbant is Andy Mitchell, not Andy Scott (he's running in Fredericton New Brunswick...that's two provences over...). We will agree that the Conservatives have a good chance on winning this riding, especially now that the Liberals are sinking, the question that begs to be answered: How did the Liberals keep this riding if not by vote splitting. The answer is rather simple, Andy Mitchell is a good politician. This could really help him keep his seat. Calling this a sure-fire conservative win is premature. Wait and see for this one.
29/05/04 Chris
Email: [hidden]
This riding's going Conservative. The Libs have had it easy with vote-splitting. Also, as a slight observation, in a week so far in the campaign, I see a far greater number of Conservative lawn signs than Liberals. Also, Conservatives tend to cast their votes at a higher rate than liberals. I think this riding will change come June
28/05/04 Grant
Email: grantramcgill@yahoo.ca
I'm going out on a limb and say that the Conservatives will reclaim this riding. Not because of events on the national scene, but on the provincial.
True, most voters can discern the federal government from the provincial one, but two events can contribute to Andy Scott's downfall.
First is the McGuinty budget. Don't have to say more than that. But I can't help the feeling that he's hoping the radioactivity his government has generated by breaking promises has a half-life of less than four years.
The second is more local, a recent announcement by the province to re-designate the southern half of Parry Sound-Muskoka, the Muskoka part, as "southern" Ontario, making it inelgibile for various Ontario government assistance plans for the north. The Tories had changed the criteria to make Muskoka eligible for such assistance when Ernie Eves was still its MPP. Coincidentally, it only seems to affect the region which has the sole Tory MPP in the North (and Ernie Eves' successor)...hmmm.
I used to work in the Ontario Ministry of Health and one benefit program that is now out of reach for Muskokans was a financial grant to aid with travel costs for medical treatments out of the region. Muskokans used to be furious that the cost of their 2 hour drive (a pleasant one in winter, for sure) to and from Toronto had to be borne by them. Now, imagine that program, as well as so many others now gone.
I think the two moves have made the Liberal name toxic, especially in ridings like this where the combined PC-CA vote was only a couple of points below the Grits. And I've never been that big a fan of the theory that the PC vote is so alienated and stranded that they won't vote for Harper 'en masse'.
And if there was no such thing as spillover from provincial to federal arenas, how come Liberal seat projections dropped after the Ontario budget? This is going to turn out be another example of such a crossover. Parry Sound-Muskoka's going blue.
26/04/04 Watt Tyler
Email: [hidden]
Unless the CPC national campaign totally tanks in Ontario, it will be difficult to imagine this seat not going Conservative. I know it's classified by many (including this site) as a northern Ontario riding, but in truth, Parry Sound-Muskoka has a lot more in common culturally with the old Tory strongholds in the Huron, Bruce, and Simcoe regions than the Liberal/NDP leaning north. With a combined right, a sagging provincial Liberal gov/t, and what is likely to be a anti-Liberal Party mood nationally regardless of when the election is called, this riding should be counted as Conservative.
31/03/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
Well considering this riding has been Progressive Conservative federally every election since 1957 (until 1993) and split the vote in 1993 and 1997, and has a strong provincial history provincially for the PC Party(being 1 of 2 PC seats to get more than 50% of the vote when the NDP came to power), this looks like a guarenteed Conservative gain. Since the Liberal incumbent's voting total was practically the same in 2000 as it was in 1997, I believe the combined Alliance and PC vote would have been more (it was only under by 1000 votes) if the voter turnout wasn't low. Now that there is actually a hope someone besides the Liberals will take this traditionally blue seat, people will come back to the polls.
24/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
As much as I would like to see this king of self promotion lose to the CPC for the benefit of the Liberals and the CPC, he is too good a politician to lose.
24/03/04 S Meades
Email: [hidden]
I don't think the tories will gain any seats in Northern Ontario. Parry Sound--Muskoka may sway conservative provincially, but I think the Liberals have a strong enough presence to hold on federally. It could be close, but I'd say it'll go Liberal, leading the tories by 5-10%.
24/03/04 Rich
Email: [hidden]
While it is true that provincial results don't alway mirror federal, it does give some insight into the leanings of the riding. The PC party ran Lew MacKenzie in '97 but the CA also ran a popular local municipal politician in Peter Spadzinski. With vote splitting on the right ending and the unpopular gun registry cost ballooning to $2 billion, look for Andy Mitchell's traditional 17 000 votes slip with the Tories being the prime beneficiary.
20/03/04 Bear
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
My counterpart (ape) and I are in total disagreement on this riding. I'm calling it a conservative win. The provincial Tory's kept this riding during the liberal onslaught that took place last fall. It's conservative much like the ridings arround Lake Simcoe and will probably vote much the same way. Blue all the way.
20/03/04 Ghoris
The right has always made this riding a heavy target and has always come up short. They threw star candidate Lewis MacKenzie at Andy Mitchell in 1997 and Mitchell still defeated him fairly handily. We've seen time and again that provincial results don't always translate to the federal scene (how do you explain 100 Liberal MPs at the height of the Common Sense Revolution?) - so this constant invocation of Eves and Miller is really meaningless.
Even if you add together every single PC and Alliance vote from 2000, Mitchell would still have won by about 1,300 votes. With Stephen Harper's election as leader to cement the fact in many minds that the CPC is an Alliance takeover of the PC party, I doubt the CPC will capture all of those PC votes, plus steal the votes from Mitchell needed to go over the top. Mitchell is now a full cabinet minister and will enjoy the profile and influence that goes along with it. Liberal hold in a close race.
17/03/04 Rich
Email: [hidden]
The big blue machine in Parry Sound-Muskoka is well-oiled as evidenced by Stormin' Norman Miller's resounding win in the provincial election. This coupled with the tarnishing of the Liberal brand (especially in rural ridings) adds up to a conservative take back of this traditionally blue riding.
17/03/04 Big P
Email: [hidden]
If ever there was a Blue Riding. This is going to be one of those riding that will benefit from a legitimate Conservative Party again. A strong Conservative candidate will take this riding and put it back in line with its Conservative roots (Eves and Miller nod their head in agreement).

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