Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
10:10 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:00 PM 18/03/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Carolyn Bennett
Barry Cline
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Peter Elgie
Norman Tobias

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Eglinton-Lawrence (7.5%)
Hon. Joseph Volpe
St. Paul's (92.5%)
Hon. Carolyn Bennett

2000 Result/Résultats:
25,631 55.27%
9,483 20.45%
5,338 11.51%
4,375 9.43%
1,548 3.34%

(15/186 polls, 5987/72280 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

St. Paul's
(203/223 polls, 73774/79237 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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21/06/04 Ian
Email: [hidden]
Why do people insist on using lawn signs as an indicator of a party's status? In my area of the riding--Vaughan and Kenwood-- and surrounding it, there are very few Cline signs. The majority are for Bennett. I'm sure in other areas there are plenty of Kline signs, but not in all. I have a suggestion for sign counters out there. Make a survey of each an every sign out there and then let us know your prediction. Even that would be inaccuarate because not every one posts signs, and many are posted on public property--green space, etc--usually by those without a chance of winning. I'm not a Liberal supporter, but I think Bennett will win, mainly due to her repuation in the riding and Cline's relative lack of stature.
21/06/04 No Longer Undecided
Email: [hidden]
Maybe people have been underestimating Norman Tobias and the NDP in this riding. I'm a lifelong Liberal (who finds everything about Paul Martin unseemly), and I went to the All Candidates Debate looking for a place to park my vote, strategically or not. It was my first opportunity to hear any of the candidates speak. Tobias stood head and shoulders above his colleagues; he was respectful, thoughtful, well spoken and well prepared. More importantly, at least as far as 'prediction' goes, Tobias garnered the most sustained and genuine applause. Cline and Bennet seemed to have stacked the meeting with partisan cheerleaders who whooped it up on cue. In spite of that, Tobias emerged as the clear winner. He won my vote. My guess is that, if he campaigns hard over the next few days, and meets enough people, he will surprise the pundits. I hope so. He would be a valuable asset on Parliament Hill.
20/06/04 Austin Hilton
Email: [hidden]
I hope this is the last time I submit and give a numbers prediction...but things have changed and it won't be a cakewalk for Carolyn Bennett...though I think she will still win. Both Barry Cline and Norman Tobias are running strong campaigns.
To Former Liberal, I agree that there's lots of Conservative signs in the very wealthy communities of Forest Hill and Cedarvale. Though at least in Cedarvale and Forest Hill west of Spadina, I think Bennett has caught up in the sign war. Since "Team Martin" seems to be a sinking ship, however, my guess is that Liberals are less likely to put up signs, so my guess is that Bennett is winning in those areas.
I don't think Cline is leading in the Davisville area, which you seem to suggest. This middle-middle class area seems to give Bennett a slight edge, Tobias seems to be in second, with Cline slightly behind. In upper-middle-class Chaplin Estates and Deer Park, it looks like Bennett's in the lead, with Cline in second.
Former Liberal, have you biked SOUTH of St. Clair at all? Here, Cline is definitely in a distant third place. I'd say south of St. Clair area Bennett signs and Tobias signs are running about even.
East of Bathurst and south of St. Clair, upper-middle-class Casa Loma and Rathnelly seem to be heavily populated with champagne socialists, though not to the degree of the Annex. In Casa Loma, for example, Hilton and Wells Hill have Tobias in the lead, with Bennett in the lead on Austin Terrace and Lyndhurst. West of Bathurst, you enter the very mixed Hillcrest neighborhood (where I grew up and I imagine Hillcrester has connections to), which ranges from working class to upper middle class and the NDP is in the lead. Looking at well-to-do streets like Alcina Avenue, Braemore Gardens, Burnside Drive and Wychwood Park, Tobias is leading the sign war, with Bennett in second. The sort of middle-middle class Ellsworth has 11 NDP signs! In the part of Hillcrest west of Christie, Tobias continues to dominate both on the well-to-do streets near Hillcrest Park like Hillcrest Drive and Turner as well as on working class streets like Rushton and Greensides.
So here's my (latest and hopefully last) prediction: Bennett 37%, Cline 32%, Tobias 27%, Elgie and others 4%
18/06/04 s
Email: m201208@hotmail.com
Although I have never seen so many blue signs in this riding before, I think the Liberals will pull through. Bennett is bright and appealing. Despite the apparent popularity of Cline, traditionally a Red Tory, I think many constits will vote more to the left. Cline might be an old Red, but his party sure isn't! He's quite an opportunist. Some of you may have seen his name before...again, and again, and again! Cline loves to run, as he just wants a seat anywhere....Ottawa, Queen's Park... He has a history of running many times, in many riding associations, in several elections. He'd be an unknown to the Liberals given his long, strong ties to the PCs but is a familiar face with some Conservatives and knew he'd have the chance to run AGAIN with them, despite his somewhat different ideas on social issues. This isn't appealing to voters. He just wants the stature.
17/06/04 Robert
Email: [hidden]
I have lived in St. Paul's for 18 years and have never seen such a rapid sea-change in terms of political support. Carolyn Bennett may still win but, judging from the number of blue signs in evidence and the comments of voters on the streets, it will be a squeeker.
12/06/04 Hillcrester
Email: s.minkin@utoronto.ca
It seems every election, some hack "predicts" that the Green Party will outpoll the NDP in St. Paul's. Sorry Mark F., this is bogus. Watch:
1999: NDP 7.1% (~9% provincially); Greens 0.7% (?? provincially)
2000: NDP 9.4% (8.5% nationally); Greens 2.6% (0.8% nationally)
2003: NDP 14.8% (14.7% provincially); Greens 4.9% (<4.2% nationally*)
So Mark F., your logic escapes me. (Why would Tobias do worse than Hunter, with the NDP twice as high in the national polls and a local leader?) As I wrote in response to the same suggestion on the 2003 prediction, when the Greens outpoll the NDP in Ontario, it's in rural ridings where the NDP is so marginal that the Greens are seen as no less legitimate an alternative. That describes Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey, not St. Paul's.
*I don't know the 2003 provincial Green percentage; 4.2% is the figure for all the fringe parties together.
10/06/04 Former Liberal
Email: [hidden]
I have lived in St. Paul's for the past 20 years, back to when Barbara McDougall ran the riding. I have seen every election that has gone both Tory and Liberal. I ride my bike all around the riding. I have never ever seen anything like this before.
Carolyn Bennett is running a very very poor campaign. It took ten days for her signs to get up in any real number and even now she is getting creamed by Barry Cline two or three signs to one. But more than that I am seeing Barry Cline signs where there have never been Conservative signs before. Bennett is losing Cedarvale, she is losing Eglington South and Eglinton West.
I call this election for Cline. It will probably be close, but still Conservative.
09/06/04 Mark F.
Email: [hidden]
I wouldn't have thought this possible, just a few short weeks ago but this riding, once a sure Liberal win , is now in the undecided category. Unless there is a tremendous groundswell of support in the areas many highrises, carolyn Bennett may be in peril. Touring many areas of the riding PC lawn signs outnumber Liberals 5-1. Barry Cline, has agroup of dedicated volunteers and the green Party, who will finish 3rd here, ahead of the NDP is siphoning votes from The Liberals. Not ready to say BLUE, but not a Grit cinch by any means. prediction LIB 42% PC 40% GREEN 10% NDP 8%
08/06/04 St Paul's Constituent
Email: [hidden]
I live in St Paul's and, much as some of the left and right would like to see the liberals collapse in Toronto, this riding won't be one of them.
Even when Barbara MacDougall was around this under previous boundaries, St Paul's was a red tory riding (and Bassett held it briefly as a red tory riding provincially). With a less kind and gentle version of the Tories in the CPCs these days, I think they have little chance in such an urban, multicultural and tenant-dominated riding, with tons of lefty academics to boot. The wealthy Forest Hill crowd, their main hope for support, simply get drowned out by the other votes.
Finally, if Dr. Bennett has any kind of rapport with and help from the provincial liberals of the (now well-oiled) Michael Bryant machine, I can't see anyone catching her, despite the scandal and everything else. Given provincial polling numbers, the NDP has a shot at making this one mildly interesting and may displace the CPCs for second place finish (this place is also solid David Miller territory), but that's about it.
One of the safest TO seats that the Libs can count on.
04/06/04 Cynical with 'tude
Email: [hidden]
It's going to be a fairly conclusive victory for Bennett, she has generally performed well and avoided any mistakes or gaffes. To my knowledge, she's run a clean campaign and hasn't taken any extreme stands that could be used to damage her.
On a federal level, I suspect all the hoopla for a minority Conservative win will peak and fall as voters decide they don't want to punish the Liberals that much. Also, who would Harper ally with? The NDP is out of the question. They've tarred the Liberals as corrupt and tired so siding with them is politcally damaging. The Bloc? Hardly, they're the antithesis of the Conservatives and stories of the Bloc planning to wring concessions out of a Conservative government won't go over well with the rank and file. My two cents.
03/06/04 Cory Martin
Email: thatcanadianguy23@yahoo.ca
You think the NDP will win this riding? And by the way, You are probably looking in the north end of the riding I am talking about the rest of the riding. Cline has no chance. Neither does the NDP.
02/06/04 devolved_kmbkr
Email: [hidden]
I'd love to see the NDP take this riding, as someone said earlier, there are a lot of unhappy Liberals in St. Paul's. However, more realistically, it might be Cline giving Bennett a run for her money. Red signs everywhere? Where on earth have you been looking? It's a sea of blue, with a couple of red and orange dots along the way. The largely Jewish/largely socialist riding might just be fed up enough to make a protest vote count and swing it leftwards, although I shudder to think about the future a Conservative Canada has...
01/06/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
Elgie claims to have boosted "his St. Paul's campaign team from zero to 200" and his dad is a Bill Davis era provincial minister. The kid knows how to play the game. He WILL come third, with 10-15% of the vote perhaps, and much of that will be Red Tories who don't trust Harper's NeoConservatives. Also, some of those NDPers who vote stoned may vote Green by mistake because of the psychedelic Green logo - and because the Greens are for marijuana legalization and taxation, period.
So given that Green vote-sucking sound, Carolyn Bennett takes this in a walk.
28/05/04 Austin Hilton
Email: [hidden]
The NDP should make some gains here...with Jack Layton's urban Toronto popularity and David Miller beating John Tory here. There's a lot of champagne socialists in this riding, in places like Casa Loma, the Republic of Rathnelly and Wychwood Park, and Norm Tobias is obviously more acceptable to this crowd than Barry Weisleder would have. The mixed working class and professional Humewood and Hillcrest areas will also cast a lot of NDP votes. Red Tory Barry Cline should also do a little better than I predicted earlier - though the Conservative positions on social issues won't win over this largely Jewish and professional riding.
Approximate prediction: LIB 50%, CPC 25%, NDP 20%, others 5%
28/05/04 Cory
Email: thatcanadianguy23@yahoo.ca
This will be an easy win for Carolyn. I have been to her campaign office and it is bustling with activity. And the St.Paul's riding is starting to fill up with red. Good luck Carolyn.
27/05/04 Mike TTG
I can't see the NDP's estate tax winning many in this riding with its many expensive homes.
26/05/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
Dr. Bennett should win this in a walk, though not by quite the wide margin she did four years ago. She has tended the constituency well, and she is the kind of urbane, wel-educated candidate, like John Godfrey in Don Valley West, that mid-towners go for. The Conservatives will do better than last time but will still finish a distant second. The surprise of the evening may be the Greens' Peter Elgie beating the NDP candidate for third place.
24/05/04 Price
Email: [hidden]
St. Paul's just might get interesting - the NDP narrowly avoided disaster in the form of unreconstructed Troskyite windbag Barry Weisleider and have wisely nominated lawyer Norman Tobias. Tobias is a leading legal expert on the taxation of corporations and trusts, and is governor of the Canadian Council of Christians and Jews. With a good local campaign, Tobias might be able to combine existing pockets of NDP support in the riding with rising support for the NDP in the GTA and ride to a suprisingly strong finish that could cause some surprises here regardless of whether or not he wins.
10/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
St. Paul's is a bit like Toronto's Vancouver-Quadra; fundamentally affluent Liberal/(pre-93)Tory uptown urbanity with an enlightened/progressive streak, + some surprisingly strong yet hopelessly isolated NDP precincts in the periphery. There's a bizarre possibility that the NDP could grab it in a Rae-scale sweep--the seat's "Mayor Miller" enough--however, despite DM's statement, I've the feeling that, notionally, the NDP would *not* have won within these boundaries in 1990. (Second place would be shocking-yet-plausible enough.) And re Red Tory's CPC poll extrapolations, I've the feeling that Conservative increases in Ontario will be felt more outside the 416. As in the provincial election, Elgie's but a high-profile footnote. Besides, Carolyn Bennett and St. Paul's go together like Rimsky and Korsakov--if any federal Grit is *personally* immune to the ominous wall of scandal (or capable of capitalizing on Red Tory cold feet re CPC immoderation), it's her.
21/04/04 DM
Email: [hidden]
This riding is full of upper-class socialists and so-called "enlightened" Bay St. types. Despite her invisibility since being made a Secretary of State, Bennett will hold her. Look for a decent NDP showing cause of the Layton effect, it did go NDP provincially in 1990.
09/04/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
Yeah, the Liberals should win this, the interesting fact in this riding is the Green Candidate - Peter Elgie, a former Tory, in fact part of a Tory dynasty family. His dad was a Bill Davis cabinet minister.
What effect will this have? Hard to say. Peter Elgie did badly in the provincial by-election in Beaches-East York, but he was up against Bob Hunter running for the Liberals. Out here in BC no one could ever expect to see an enviro run for the Liberals.
In 2001 provincial elecnt in BC in ridings where the Liberals were a lock, the protest vote shifted largely to the Greens from the NDP meaning there were a number of ridings where the 2nd place finishers.
So, I wonder how well this former red Tory that apparently was asked to run for the Tories by Joe Clark in the last fed election will do as a Green here. I also meant to add a point, Peter Elgie got 5% in the provincial election in this riding. Can he pull some red Tories and provincial Liberals sick of the federal corruption?
The Ontario Greens are close getting some of the BC results. I think he could take 10-15%.
31/03/04 Sen. McCheese
Email: [hidden]
I'm a Tory, I live in St.P, and I can't see this riding changing hands. These neighbourhoods are sufficiently close to downtown and sufficiently familiar with its social problems to be scared off by the merest whiff of market-fundamentalism coming from Harper's direction. St.Paulites give Tory strategists cold sweats- they're wealthy urban Canadians who just can't get excited about tax cuts. Factor in an unimpressive CPC candidate and the boundary shift, and it's gritlock for sure. (btw, Austin Hilton's summary of the demographics is perceptive, but the NDP is outpolling the Tories here is way over the top.)
25/03/04 Red Tory
The combined PC and CA vote was 33% in 2000. Barry Cline had a strong showing then despite a late start to the election. Barry is again the Conservative candidate - expect Barry to carry at least 40% of St.Paul's if the CPC Ontario vote is above 30%. While unseating Dr.B will be tough, a stronger Toronto NDP vote may create some surprises.
18/03/04 Austin Hilton
Email: mattnfodor@hotmail.com
Without a doubt, I can say this riding is going Liberal. The riding's boundaries have shifted a bit, with Upper Forest Hill going over to Eglinton-Lawrence and part of Oakwood-Vaughan going to St. Paul's. So this largely Jewish, high-SES riding is a little less affluent and less Jewish than before. This will have little impact on the result, in my view. The United Right won't be much of a factor here, due to a combination of Jewish voting patterns (overwhelmingly Liberal), Red Tory social liberalism, and Martin's Bay Street credentials. The NDP should pick up quite a bit, with support coming from champagne socialists in WASP/Jewish Casa Loma and Wychwood Park and to some extent the largely-immigrant, working class areas in the western part of the riding.
Prediction: 62% LIB, 18% NDP, 15% CPC, 5% others
17/03/04 Ghoris
Email: [hidden]
Carolyn Bennett has a lock on this seat. The only declared candidate for the NDP nomination is a disgraced, loony-left union hack. The Conservatives don't have a realistic chance in any Toronto seats inside the 905 belt. Liberal landslide.

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