Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision

www.electionprediction.com

Scarborough-Agincourt
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:02 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:52 PM 18/03/2004



Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

Candidates/candidats:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Conservatives/Conservateurs:
Andrew Faust
PC Party/Parti PC:
Tony Karadimas
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Jim Karygiannis
N.D.P./N.P.D.:
D'Arcy Palmer
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Wayne Yeechong

Population 2001
populations
110,669
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs
68645

Incumbents/Les députés:
Scarborough-Agincourt (89.6%)
Hon. Jim Karygiannis
Scarborough-Rouge River (10.4%)
Derek Lee

2000 Result/Résultats:
Redistributed
26,326 70.98%
4,878 13.15%
4,057 10.94%
1,454 3.92%
OTHERS
372 1.00%

Scarborough-Agincourt
(153/176 polls, 61538/69876 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
23591
4423
1252
3580
OTHER
372

Scarborough-Rouge River
(21/174 polls, 7107/72054 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
2770
473
202
491
OTHER
0



Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
22/06/04 Brian M
Email: [hidden]
The huge turnout at the advance polls in Scarborough-Agincourt is indicative of the extreme dissatisfaction residents have with their governments. One Advance Poll location had well over 700 ballots cast with voters lined up out the door. Although Jim Karygiannis is traditionally strong in the area it seems that Andrew Faust is poised to score a close call upset. However, both of these candidates are likely to be hurt by PC Party candidate Karadimis being placed between them on the ballot as well as name and party identification confusion. Deceptive Karadimis signage using words "progressive" and "conservative" however is likely to hurt Andrew Faust most. How Elections Canada can permit this attempt to mislead voters is very perplexing! Time will tell.
21/06/04 Cliff C
Email: [hidden]
Things are getting tighter in this riding, but the Liberal Karygiannis should still prevail.
Karyigiannis knows it will be tight. Last election I got maybe 2 peices of literature from him. This time the count stands at 8! Yes 8 seperate drop offs of campaign literature. So much for bewing concerned about the environment.
Alternatively, I have not got anything from the other parties.
The lawn sign poll previously at a 4 to 1 Liberal/Conservatice ratio - is now about 2 to 1 or 3 to 2 for the Liberals.
Interestly, I have seen more PC party signs than NDP signs. Karadimas may take some votes away from Faust, but it won't really play a huge factor in my opinion.
I'll say Karygiannis takes this but 5-7 thousand votes.
16/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Some of the Scarboro seats are in play. Not this one. The Liberals could drop 25 percentage points and still win it. Harper is just not that strong in the 416. Watch this one swing if there is another general election in a year though....
14/06/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Faust is coming fast (and Karygiannis is the worst member in the Commons). When you see Faust signs on Greek lawns you know something real is happening in Scarborough. Like Heather Jewell in Scar Southwest, the momentum is clearly on the right. Don't mistake Faust campaign for the limited effort he made in 2000.
06/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
A riding in which neither the PC party nor the Canadian Alliance was visible in 2000, while the NDP also did poorly. With more than 70 percent of the votes last time, Karygiannis will also win this time round, though the other parties are bound to do better than they did four years ago.
11/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Whether it's a good or bad thing may depend on whether you're for the Armenians or for the Turks, but the Armenian genocide motion's given Karygiannis a bit of profile beyond those omnipresent worst-MP polls (yawn). And unless CPC finesses the Asian (or more generically Scarberian) crime issue into something, he's as safe as he's "worst".
01/05/04 R.J.
Email: [hidden]
I've lived in the riding for over 10 years. Jim Karygiannis may be rough around the edges, but he is always around the constituency to help residents.
From an electoral standpoint, he easily defeated Andrew Faust last time around and looks poised to do the same. This local populist (now Deputy Minister) may be one of Liberal's first returns on election night.
30/03/04 Andrew Cox
Email: [hidden]
Liberal hold. Reasons. 1) Jim is the worst MP in Parliament, but that doesn't matter. In big cities, the candidate is subsumed by the party label, with important exceptions. (I'd just like to note that it is incredibly sad that this horrible man is actually in a position of authority, while fine Parliamentarians like Tony Clement, Dominic Agostino and Allan Rock are gone or going from their respective legislatures.) 2) The very large Chinese population in the riding would respond well to a socially-conservative message. Jimmy K has been giving them that for years, but the Cons may have the advantage if the national debate involves gay marriage. 3) Chinese votes don't respond automatically to a Chinese candidate (see Gerry Phillips vs Yolanda Chan 2003), but a Chinese candidate will help to make in-roads for the Conservatives. 4) Again, this is a classic suburban seat that forms the bedrock of Liberal supremacy. If the Liberals tank nationally, it will be seats l! ike these they will lose. If Martin holds his base, he should hold this seat. 5) The NDP is an insignificant factor here. 6) I'm calling this a Liberal hold, simply because I don't see the Liberals losing core seats yet. But if they start to slip...
22/03/04 EP
Email: [hidden]
Weakest MP, biggest bully... same difference
20/03/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
Jim Karygiannis may not be the best MP in the world (in fact, he's one of the weaker ones in caucus), but that doesn't matter in this heavily Liberal riding. Easy win for the Libs, with over 60% of the vote for Karygiannis.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The Liberals 2000 win was massive here and they will have another massive win this time around.


Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster