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Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:42 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:20 PM 21/03/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Bob Kilger
Guy Lauzon
Elaine MacDonald
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Tom Manley

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell (4.9%)
Hon. Don Boudria
Stormont-Dundas-Charlottenburgh (95.1%)
Bob Kilger

2000 Result/Résultats:
19,866 47.21%
16,364 38.88%
3,797 9.02%
1,709 4.06%
348 0.83%

(10/198 polls, 3437/73147 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(203/203 polls, 67232/67232 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Authorized by the Official Agent for the Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry Green Party Federal Association
23/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
I also have to disagree with predicting a Liberal win here. Since I live right next to the riding, I've been through it a few times, and have read some riding polls where the CPC candidate has a significant lead. Also, SDSG has the best organized Green campaign that I have ever seen in Ontario. Some polls have shown the Greens getting 10%, or even more. It seems to me that with a strong campaign on both the right and left, this one is very unlikely to go Liberal, even with some gains for the Grits in recent national polls
17/06/04 anonymous
Email: [hidden]
The last poster is absolutely correct - SDSG will see the highest percentage of votes for the Green Party east of British Columbia. Manley is a very good, very credible candidate with impeccable credentials and a wide range of appeal. What's more, he's well organized and has a surprising number of volunteers for a "fringe" candidate. I won't speculate on results, but I hear from a knowledgable source that Manley's internal polls are showing him some very good numbers. If that trend continues, look for the GPC office in Ottawa to throw manpower this way in the last frenzied few days before election day and on E-Day itself - there very clearly will be a substantial Green vote to be mobilized.
12/06/04 canrocks
Email: [hidden]
Although people don't like Guy Lauzon, I think this riding could go tory. The main reason is that the Green party is ruffling a lot of feathers in this riding and may split the left. The NDP is almost invisible, but the greens practically own the North Dundas end of the riding. I'm predicting that Manley will have the greatest percentage vote of any green candidate in Ontario.
10/06/04 Ryan
Email: [hidden]
So many elements come into play with this riding that are going to make it more difficult for Bob Kilger this time around. The riding is an interesting mix of urban and rural. The city of Cornwall being traditionally more Liberal, with the surrounding counties leaning more Conservative. The challenges facing Kilger are more substantial this time around.
1- A united Conservative Party. As you can see from the 2000 results, the combined Alliance/PC vote would have slightly defeated Kilger. (Assuming all those who voted PC would have gone Alliance, but we all know the arguments surrounding this issue so I won't go into it.)
2- An experienced candidate in Guy Lauzon who almost pulled off the upset last time around. Having his second go at it obviously gives him a chance to learn from mistakes and improve on his showing.
3- A stronger NDP candidate this time around. Instead of recruiting a student the NDP has gone to a respected teacher, which could very well pull more votes away from disgruntled Liberals than a weaker candidate could. Also, with high profile figures like Brian Lynch supporting the NDP, it could make a difference with a few votes here and there, and with a tight race as this one, every vote counts.
4- Anger at the Liberal Party in general and the perceived momentum that is swinging to the Conservatives and Harper. If the Tories don't fumble than this can only stand to further benefit Lauzon and the Conservatives.
5- Dissatisfied voters play into the equation. Protest voters who once voted Liberal and are parking their votes with the Green Party for example. Even though the Conservatives might not be picking up all of those votes, the damage is still partly done as previous Kilger supporters are moving away. And like I said, in a close race, every vote is going to count this time around.
6- Perception might make a difference. Lauzon has an amazing sign presence in the area. I know that simply because someone has a sign on their lawn doesn't necessarily mean they're going to vote that way, but the perception of increased support for Lauzon this time around and weaker Kilger support might play a factor.
Despite what I argued, as I know someone could very well counter these points, it's going to be a hard fought battle right down to the wire. What it may boil down to is rural vs. urban. If support for Kilger in the city of Cornwall drops substantially, then he will be defeated. If he can hold his support and make some inroads into the rural areas, he has a fighting chance. Both the Liberals and Conservatives are going to have to push hard to get their vote out on election day. I think it's safe to say that either Kilger or Lauzon has a credible shot at winning this race. I think the battle is still Kilger's to lose, since I know how very strong and committed his organization is, but I would not be surprised to see a Lauzon victory. My prediction at this point is too close to call, and I would suspect that the players/supporters for the two major parties are feeling that same sentiment as well.
05/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
The startling 2000 result--*nobody* expected that Renfrew-Nip-Pembroke and Stor-Dun would score the top Alliance %'s in Ontario--clearly portends an earthquake. But re the rural-populism comment, there's one element this time that wasn't there in 2000 which *may* conceivably depress the Tory (yes, Tory, not Liberal) vote: a crack farmer-activist Green candidate, Tom Manley, one of two 2003 Ontario Greens who outpolled the NDP...
03/06/04 gb
Email: [hidden]
Is it not at least about time to move this one into the Too Close column. Lauzon signs are everywhere. There have been visits from Harper and Solberg. The numbers in Eastern Ontario actually indicate Lauzon will win.
03/06/04 Josh Frappier
Email: [hidden]
Bob Kilger and the Liberals have been getting a fairly negative reception in the Cornwall area, while our NDP campaign team is being received far more positively and we're always having to get new signs to keep up with the demand (Cornwall has at least twice as many Elaine MacDonald signs as it did Matt Sumegi signs in the provinicial election). I still think this riding will likely go Conservative, but don't count us Dippers out yet. :-) We just might surprise you, especially being that some people will think twice about voting Green when word gets out about...Wait...I shouldn't say anything yet, but it's not good news for Manley, even though it may not be a major scandal.
26/05/04 Price
Email: [hidden]
Along with Don Boudria's seat this is one of the eastern Ontario ridings where Liberals stand the best chance of keeping their heads above water in a reunited right's surge. The combined Alliance/Tory vote from 2000 would make it close but the Liberals will likely skim off enough oldfashioned red tories to take a small but secure win. The one thing that might screw it up for them would be if the NDP's Elaine MacDonald pulls in a decent vote in Cornwall. If she does, she might just sap enough Liberal strength to throw the race the other way.
24/05/04 John
Email: [hidden]
I believe this riding will go Conservative this time. Mr. Lauzon came close, but as in all elections in the area, the City of Cornwall will be key. Mr. Lauzon won the outlying areas but was buried by Mr. Kilger when the vote from Cornwall came in. If Mr. Lauzon can raise Conservative awareness in the city of Cornwall he has a definite shot at winning.
19/05/04 J Poole
This is another re-run of the 2000 election, like Leeds-Grenville next door. I predict a Liberal win 18,800 vs 13,500 for the Tories. In this riding neither the PCs or Alliance can completely transfer their votes to the new Party. This is not Burlington, where PCs and CAs were interchangable. Party members and executives are not always accurate reflections of their supporters. Many of the Reform voters in these rural Eastern Ontario (Lanark, Leeds-Grenville, and this one) ridings were protest voters way back in the 1970s. There were Liberal voters, Conservative voters, and a volitile group which moved from the NDP to the SoCreds, CoRs and independant candidates. The common thread was rural dominated, socially conservative populism. By '93 the NDP was too socially progressive and Reform was able to tap into this dynamic. The CA swallowed up Reform, and some of the PCs. Say about 10,000 of the last election CA vote were from this group, who have been many things, but NEVER Tories.
03/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
This riding will go Liberal. Just because the combined vote between the PC's and the Alliance come close to the Liberals does not mean they will win. Remember, the CA and PC's combined had a much higher voter% than the Conservatives do now, a lot more than the Liberals have dropped. The NDP may do well in Cornwall, but I dont think it will be enough to pull from the Liberals. I predict a close Liberal win.
21/04/04 Josh Frappier
Email: jf_ndp@sympatico.ca
New Information:
1. The NDP nomination was tonight and the NDP is now running a very strong candidate in Elaine MacDonald, a respected teacher in Cornwall and possessing the background to unite the labour and activist New Democrats. (Guess the Liberals can kiss a lot of OSSTF vote goodbye. :-))
2. Guy Lauzon is the legendary Norm Lalonde's successor as "Mr. Canada" and heads the Canada Day celebrations in Cornwall, a new development since 2000. He should be able to gain a fair bit of support by wrapping himself around in the Canadian flag.
Looks "good" for the Conservatives. (Aside from being slightly less bad then the Liberals and nowhere near as deserving as the NDP or even the Greens, its not really a good thing. :-P)
19/04/04 Josh Frappier
Email: [hidden]
The Alliance nearly took this riding in 2000, and if people think the Liberals are in trouble now, they can kiss the vote of just about every Internet user good-bye. (Over half the Canadian population.)
I seriously can see the Greens benefitting from this though: Manley launched Bell Sympatico, and except for the turncoats at Videotron, most ISPs that provide broadband don't want to lose one of the main reasons people actually subscribe to it, and Manley, although now an organic farmer, could really hammer this issue.
09/04/04 Full
Email: [hidden]
It looks like SD&G will fall under the conservative banner this time around. The deck is stacked against Bob Kilger for a few reasons.
1) Guy Lauzon the former alliance candidate and current candidate is essentially a Red Tory which will play well in the liberal leaning city of Cornwall.
2) The combined Alliance + P.C vote alone puts this riding in play especially considering Mr. Kilger will likley lose some votes to Green party candidate Tom Manley, the grandson of former liberal MP for SD&G and the NDP who have recently resorted to running university students are likely running Elaine MacDonald a respected local high school teacher who should be able to mprove the NDP's vote total at the Liberal's expense.
Finally, Mr. Kilger's election team will be lacking some big names. Mr. Brownell the new liberal MPP will likely not lend much of a hand as Mr. Kilger supported his own executive assistant in the bitter provincial nomination against Mr. Brownell. Also former Cornwall Mayor and Current Mayor Brian Lynch and Phil Poirier two individual who really helped organize for Kilger in the past are likely to sit this election out.
24/03/04 lillybelle
Email: [hidden]
The combined Alliance/ Conservative votes in 2000 alone would make this riding too close to call. SDSG is also one of 22 ridings in the province identified as winnable by a united right.
Factor in Liberal scandals and the more than 70% of Conservatives in the riding who supported Harper and the odds tip in favour of the Conservatives. Liberal support would have to be stronger than it was in 2000 to pull this off. I don't think that is the case.
20/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Guy Lauzon has been nominated for the Conservatives again (he ran for the Canadian Alliance and came close in 2000). He has some name recognition in this riding, but so does Liberal incumbant Bob Kilger (assuming he wins the nomination). With this in mind, we're calling this riding a toss up for now. Cornwall, the largest town in the riding is staunchly Liberal, while the rural rest of the riding is very similar to neighbouring Leeds-Grenville or Nepean-Carleton (which is Conservative). The edge does go to the Liberals, however the various scandals and other recent boobery could help the Conservatives. We'll have to wait and see.
20/03/04 Josh Frappier
Email: [hidden]
Cornwall almost always has True Grit (virtually every apolitical person I know who bothers voting reflexively votes Liberal) and even with the Liberal tide in Ontario's provincial election, I'm extremely surprised to seem them when so much of the vote in the rural part of the riding (relative to what they usually win provincially), since its staunchly Tory provincially (Perhaps the fact that the only Cornwall candidate was a Conservative , while the Liberal candidate was from Long Sault in South Stormont, the New Democratic candidate was from Chesterville in North Dundas (the most Tory part of the riding), and the Green candidate was from Berwick in South Stormont killed the PCs out of the gates.)
But provincial and federal politics are a very different ball game in Ontario...
The Liberals are running retired NHL referee Bob Kilger for the 5th consecutive election. NHL fans living outside of the riding may be more familiar with his son Chad, who was recently traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Conservatives are running 2000 Canadian Alliance candidate Guy Lauzon. Lauzon and the PC candidate (Michael Bailey) narrowly had enough combined support to beat Kilger, and Bailey is a member of the Conservative riding executive now, so I doubt many PC voters will go Liberal here. While I was too young to vote in 2000, I'm ashamed to admit that I was an Alliance supporter then, quite ironic given my social liberalism and hatred of the War on Drugs even then, especially given the way my poltical views have developed since. At least it's better than being a Liberal in that the CA/Conservatives can be trusted to lie and whore to the US, while the Liberals are so unreliable and scatterbrained that we can't even count on them for that.
Ironically, while I'm a New Democrat now (after a provincial election that really made me think about my views and my allegiances in Canadian politics, along with a number of other issues and events that have influenced in the run-up to the casting of my first ballot this past October), I don't know who we're running, because I just spoke to the president of the local riding association today and there's nothing on the federal site. Wednesday's meeting will be tough though, as it will be held at the residence of the parents of the NDP's 2000 federal candidate, and I will likely be faced with the prospect of telling them that I supported the antithesis to their daughter 4 years ago.
I have rambled enough...
I think this will go Liberal, but this riding is not a shoe in, and it's far too early to make a prediction yet. Especially given that 2000's PC candidate, as I stated before, is now a member of the Conservative riding association's executive and the Conservatives are running the same candidate that nearly beat a much stronger Liberal Party 4 years ago.
19/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

The Alliance came shockingly close last time, but I'm tempted to see that as a fluke. Cornwall has been solidly Liberal for a while now -- and, while it might be close, I don't see the riding changing hands.

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