Election Prediction Project
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Thunder Bay-Superior North
Thunder Bay-Superior-Nord

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:31 PM 6/8/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:30 AM 19/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Parti Marijuana Party:
Denis Carrière
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Joe Comuzzi
Bruce Hyer
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Carl Rose
Bev Sarafin

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Thunder Bay-Atikokan (9.2%)
Stan Dromisky
Thunder Bay-Superior North (90.8%)
Hon. Joe Comuzzi

2000 Result/Résultats:
16,153 47.12%
7,179 20.94%
6,618 19.31%
3,057 8.92%
1,274 3.72%

Thunder Bay-Atikokan
(16/171 polls, 5597/55737 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Thunder Bay-Superior North
(180/180 polls, 55508/55508 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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06/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
A reminder: Mike Gravelle had 2003's best provincial Liberal result here with nearly 3/4 of the vote. As for Comuzzi, though; while "popular" he may be (although prior to his ascent into cabinet, he was sometimes cited in *worst* MP lists), he still had less than half the vote in 2000, thus his safety's somewhat illusory, esp. if the current poll-pulverizing of Team Martin is fairly well distributed across all of Ontario. Also note that unlike the neighbouring Lakehead-region riding, 2000 numbers saw Alliance and NDP at roughly even par--whether that means the NDP are *more* or *less* likely to win here than there is difficult to tell. (BTW in past elections, NDP's *greater* strength relative to the Grits has been in "rural towns" than within TB proper...)
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Comuzzi will win handidly. The north tends to vote for popular candidates as opposed to particular parties. It will stay Liberal unless the Grit's fortunes really really sink. As in many other northern Ontario ridings, watch for the strongest NDP showing in years.
29/05/04 J.C.
Email: [hidden]
Joe will probably win but I've never before seen so many NDP signs up. Not just in Thunder Bay either but in the rural Towns,too.
Like Martin,Joe is a senior citizen(71) let's watch and see if the voters think its time to retire him.
The Conservative candidate, Bev Sarafin, was nominated late and has no visible campaign, yet.
15/05/04 CBP
Email: [hidden]
In this riding, the Liberals should succeed once again. This is because not only is the riding still a relative stronghold for the Liberals, but the incumbent, Comuzzi, is seeing his star rise within government and has begun to put Thunder Bay on the political map in Ottawa
24/03/04 Steven H.
Email: [hidden]
The Conservative Party is slowly making inroads in Thunder Bay, but the majority of that support is in the Thunder Bay-Rainy River riding. In this riding Joe Commuzzi holds the FEDNOR cabinet position and will be further helped by the large Italian community in the region.
18/03/04 RWA
Comuzzi may not be popular in Quebec, but he doesn't have to be to hold this seat.

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