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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:39 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:38 AM 6/27/2004

Constituency Profile
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Judi Longfield
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Michael MacDonald
Ian MacNeil
Maret Sadem-Thompson

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Durham (5.3%)
Alex Shepherd
Oshawa (21.2%)
Ivan Grose
Whitby-Ajax (73.6%)
Judi Longfield

2000 Result/Résultats:
22,180 50.62%
12,179 27.80%
6,869 15.68%
2,442 5.57%
145 0.33%

(10/199 polls, 3990/80623 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(44/208 polls, 16073/75709 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(124/195 polls, 55830/83328 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
The liberal incumbent definetly has an advantage here. It is very possible that Longfield will slip by and win a close one.
23/06/04 Port Whitby Sailor
Read tonight's Whitby This Week--it's a clear endorsement of Ian MacNeil and the Tories. Given the This Week's track record of picking winners over the last year (they endorsed Jim Flaherty provincially and rookie East Ward Whitby Councillor Lorne Coe, both of whom were of course successful), a lot of credence should be put into their choice.
But not only that, the This Week offers a scathing indictment of incumbant Judi Longfield, saying that "[MacNeil's] key opponent, MP Judi Longfield, has been part of the Liberal problem for the past seven years and has offered few solutions from the Chretien-Martin backbench."
After that barrage of criticism--and the influential endorsement of the most important local publication--this one should be parked in the column of the Conservatives.
23/06/04 S.E.
Email: [hidden]
Whitby was over weeks ago. A quick drive around the riding tells you this in the sign war. Watching one of the debates would tell you this in comparing the performances of MacNeil and Longfield. The virtual absence of a real campaign by Longfield confirms that even her core support seems to have evaporated. The recent signs and billboards from the MacNeil camp tell you that the are still working until the final vote and have the resources and spirit to race to the line. Prediction - unless there is a total NDP meltdown in the riding, he will break the 50% threshold.
23/06/04 Dean
Email: [hidden]
It pains me to write this (as a firm anti-Tory) and I hope I'm wrong, but based on a lawn sign count, I'd have to give this riding to MacNeil. MacNeil also seems to have a better organisation (signs were up the day the election was called - plus, his people are the only ones who have visited my NE Whitby neighbourhood) and momentum (new signs are continuing to go up as the election goes on). This is based on actual counts throughout the riding. The margin will be fairly narrow - narrow enough that the relatively small NDP vote may make a difference, but MacNeil will probably sqeak through by 1500 votes or less.
18/06/04 Full Name
Email: [hidden]
Sorry Harry. Stick a fork in Judi Longfield; she is done like dinner. I've met her a few times over the years, and she seems to be a geniunely nice person. But as the song goes, "What have you done for me lately?" In Judi's case it should renamed to "What have you done for me ever?" Since her arrival on the federal scene in 1997, she has been virtually invisible, and has done sweet diddlysquat for Whitby-Ajax. Where was she on ITER? Also, she has run an invisible campaign thus far. On the Monday morning after the election call, Ian MacNeil was out shaking hands at the Whitby GO station. That doesn't sound to me like someone who is hiding.
18/06/04 Frenchie
Email: [hidden]
If the sign war is any indication of how the various campaign's are going, it's clear that the Liberals have an edge - especially in Whitby's downtown core. The NDP is running a virtually invisible campaign thus far which can only further Liberal hopes as disgruntled NDP'ers turn to the momentous Longfield campeign... the growing anti-right movement cannot be underestimated as those soft conservatives grow increasingly gittery over the extremes of the Harper message...
15/06/04 Harry
Email: harryrex@hotmail.com
What is Mr. MAcNeil trying to hide.... Why didn't he respond to the campaign life survey. Why don't we know what he actually does for a living... conservatives running a very poor campaign hoping to be swept in on coat tales... is that the way ian will represent the riding if he "lucks in?" My money is still on Mrs. Longfield. Anyone who has ever dealt with her office knows that she is one class act and runs a first rate opportation. And has demonstrated that she has the guts to do what is right!
10/06/04 Brooklin Observer
Take a look at Ivison's NatPost column today -- WLU Professor Barry Kay notes that "a number of Ontario seats have moved comfortably into the Conservative column since his last projection, including Whitby-Oshawa..."
I think it's time for EP to predict this one a Tory win.
01/06/04 Brock St. Bully
Considering that Harper overnighted in Whitby/Oshawa on the evening of May 31, you have think that the Conservative central campaign thinks that they can make some serious gains in this area.
The Harper press conference at the Centennial Building downtown was well-attended today--lots of interested onlookers, and even three (3!) Grits holding Longfield signs who tried their hardest to get some media play, but to no avail.
With this positive local backdrop--and the provincewide numbers tied at 36% for the Grits and the Tories, I think there is little question that this riding is going to be blue on the evening of June 28th.
01/06/04 Jon
Email: [hidden]
Two words: Jim Flaherty. One of the most conservatives of Conservatives, elected here during a Liberal sweep into provincial power.
Now that the Conservatives are sitting at 36% of Ontario (tied with the Liberals) in the most recent poll, there is no question this one is going Conservative. The voters were lost for a few years in the PC/CA/Reform confusing, now that there's a clear alternative, the Liberals are checking out of Whitby.
29/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Flaherty will get the Liberals nowhere? The purely generic nature of Whitby among 905 Grit seats and Longfield among 905 Grits leaves the Tories smelling blood, not least with Jim "Hey Abbott" Flaherty manning the provincial helm. It's a little noteworthy that redistribution has shifted the seat away from Ajax and into Oshawa--but that would have put the NDP in play a generation or two ago, not now. Besides, the Oshawa polls are mainly affluent non-NDP polls, nor does it automatically default into Liberal support--food for thought: everything that composes this seat is now provincially held by PC...
26/05/04 SE
Email: [hidden]
Apology accepted QM, even if it was tongue in cheek. I am sure you will find employment with a great reference from the former MP, Ms. Longfield. I actually base my call on the relative obscurity of the sitting member, the growth of the more affluent Brooklin area since the last election and the fact that by the 2000 vote, the Liberals had only wasted 3-4 billion. In the years since then, the total is closer to 7 billion, which I am sure will not be lost on voters. This coupled with a strong and active conservative candidate make a simple addition of the 2000 numbers very short sighted. I had predicted this to be a pick-up before McGuinty's budget, which has even federal Liberal candidates admitting is finding traction on the doorstep.
At this point, I think it will go Conservative by 2000-3000 votes.
25/05/04 Brooklin Observer
Kudos to Longfield for finally procuring a campaign office. A word of advice to her campaign team, though -- the office isn't too useful if it isn't being staffed. I drove by her office on the day the writ was dropped, but the lights were off and there was no one present inside. What a great start to the campaign!
While Longfield's team did muster enough strength to put up a few token arterial signs, I have seen no presence in neighbourhoods--a far cry from the decent coverage that the Tory camp has both on arterials and at residences, once again illustrating the serious heft of the Flaherty-MacNeil organisation.
24/05/04 QM
Email: [hidden]
First I would like to apologize to SE for attacking his/her prediction, I'm sure that he/she used a very scientific method and from the tone of his/her response I have obviously offended someone. I will simply state that the PC/Alliance vote in 2000 added up would not defeat the Liberal vote count and I predict that many former PC supporters will vote Liberal this time. Latest polls show a healthy lead in Ontario. Thank you, come again.
19/05/04 SE
Email: [hidden]
I think QM should get back to business with the work piling up in Longfield's office. Obviously a staff person, who hopes to still have employment in coming weeks. I was making a simple observation based on local observations and admitted as much. From the Brooklin poster's comments it does appear that there is a overall lack of organization with the Liberal campaign in this riding. The lack of federal action on the ITER project in Durham will probably lead to many voters questioning the logic of having invisible backbenchers. Just a thought.
19/05/04 Price
Email: [hidden]
If the NDP does run Maret Sadam-Thompson here, then the possibility of a real race emerges. I don't think Thompson will win, but if the NDP vote total goes up substantially, then this race could get thrown either Liberal or Conservative depending on where the national current is running. Right now, I'm betting on a slim Conservative win.
/05/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
Well the combined total between the PC's and the Alliance was several thousands less than what the Liberals got (under re-distributation). So I expect a Liberal win here. As for the reference to the provincial results...well had Jim Flaherty not run again in Whitby-Ajax, the McGuinty Liberals probably would have won there.
18/05/04 Brooklin Observer
It's nice to see the Grit finally nominated, some three months after her Tory counterpart.
With days to go until the election, Longfield has a lot of catching up to do. Besides her bright red constituency office, I still have not seen a campaign office--perhaps again a testament to her lack of organisation. This was even more clearly illustrated at her nomination meeting when no more than 20 individuals even bothered to show--and that includes her local and Ottawa staffers.
Other posts are quite right to note that Longfield placed ahead of the combined right-wing vote in the last election, but this time the story is different. Both the local CA and PC factions have seamlessly merged, and can focus their energy on electing one candidate with one organisation.
Various persons with whom I have spoken have indicated that they would have been more likely to vote against Longfield if there was one conservative candidate in the last election. Keep in mind that a lot of Flaherty's provincial supporters voted Grit federally in 2000 because of the lack of any alternative. These individuals are likely to come back in droves to the Conservatives now that the latter is a viable electoral option.
12/05/04 905er
Liberal win. The fact the Conservative candidate has knocked on doors is interesting but will have no influence on the outcome. Longfield has a long history in Whitby as an M.P. and former Councillor. Further even a combined vote doesn't catch her here. A candidate with no built name is not going to knock off someone of her stature - certainly not when the polls have the Liberal at 48% in Ontario. This is one of three safe Liberal ridings in Durham.
12/05/04 QM
Email: [hidden]
SE has extrapolated the results of this riding on his TWO "friends" who live in the riding and have been visited by the Conservative candidate. Is he predicting a unanimous win based on this math? Judi Longfield has been a long time MP and local councillor before that and has been working with and effectively representing the people of the riding for more than the month her opposition has been up and running. Judi Longfield will keep this seat for the Liberals, it will be a closer finish than in 2000 because of the Alliance takeover of the PC party. (I'm sorry, I mean merger of equals)
06/05/04 SE
Email: [hidden]
For starters, I do not live in the riding, but I do live nearby and have many friends in the riding. Two of them have told me that the Conservative candidate has already been by their house with his team and has had an office open for more than a month. Apparently, he is a young and very bright candidate, who seems very comfortable on the doorstep. If he is already this organized in a riding that voted PC during a losing Ontario election, I would say that Ms. Longfeld better have her resume handy. This will be one of several Durham ridings to go Blue in an election that will not be characterized by vote-splitting.
05/05/04 Oshawa Apartment Dweller
Email: [hidden]
True, those brand new houses up in Brookline take up a lot of space, but only one or two adults live in each of them. Here in the south-east corner of the riding around Oshawa’s Park Road is where the people live. Granted, a lot of those people don’t vote. Oshawa had less than a 50% turnout during last Fall’s close election. The liberals finished dead last with a NDP union leader finishing second. There are 13,000 pro union GM workers in Oshawa. A lot of them live in Whitby-Oshawa. Neither the Conservatives or Paul Martin can be branded as pro-union. GM also gets a lot of employee «training » money from both levels of government to compete with substantial subsidy offers from the Southern US states. Not sure Harper’s Calgary School of Economics would agree with that and the union leadership in town knows it. It will be a close one. I’m tempted to say the Liberals will easily win, but I’ll say NDP to keep things interesting. It’ll depend on who gets out the vote.
05/05/04 The Masked Durham Trailblazer
If the rumours are correct, and the NDP will soon nominate local educator Maret Sadem-Thompson, Big Orange will have its best showing in this riding in 20 years.
As former president of the Federation of Women Teachers' Associations of Ontario, Sadem-Thompson brings both name recognition and organisational heft to her race, something her predecessor could not count on in 2000. While they won't come anywhere near victory, the NDP will be strong enough to siphon a fair number of voters from Longfield. This vote shift could be what it takes to enable the well-organised Conservatives win in this already conservative riding.
11/04/04 Nick
Email: doodle@cogeco.ca
I just can't see the Conservatives winning this riding. True, it has a piece of Oshawa and Durham, but the majority of the riding is part of former Whitby-Ajax, which had a nice Liberal lead over the combined PC/Alliance vote in 2000. Unless the Liberals really tank in the polls, I can't see the Oshawa and Durham portions of the riding being enough to give the CPC the edge needed to win.
08/04/04 Brooklin Observer
Email: [hidden]
This riding is a shoo-in for the Conservatives given the demographic changes under redistribution, but is even moreso if we allocate points based on the massive headstart his campaign has.
None of the other two major parties have even nominated a candidate yet, but the Conservative has already opened his campaign office and I've ALREADY received a lit piece from his campaign. Unless MP Judi Longfield is out clandestinely knocking doors to "consult with consituents", the Liberals' sinking popularity coupled with a distracted and disorganized local Liberal riding association--led by a Whitby town councillor who's clearly more concerned with his representative obligations than his partisan duties--will seal a MacNeil victory in Whitby-Oshawa.
25/03/04 QM
Email: [hidden]
Liberal all the way in this riding. Judi Longfield is a great Member of Parliament and has helped countless constituents over the years, her personal connection with so many people in the riding will translate to a well organized, energetic team for the campaign. The Conservative candidate is an unknown with little if any political experience and the NDP is a non factor in this riding. The current climate may see her lose some support, but not enough to have the Conservatives take it.
24/03/04 MKT
Email: [hidden]
I think there is no question that this riding is going Tory. The Liberal incumbent, Judi Longfield has done nothing to benefit the community and people seem very angry about the scandal, even months later. The sense I get is that the people here in Whitby-Oshawa are desperate for a change and that change will come in the way of electing Ian MacNeil. This is a traditionally conservative area-one of the few to have maintained a provincial Conservative, in the way of Jim Flaherty, after the recent Liberal rout. Whitby-Oshawa is going blue!
23/03/04 Brock St. Bully
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals are in trouble in all of the member-held provincial Tory ridings, and Whitby-Oshawa is no different. The sponsorship scandal's reverberations will be felt throughout the province, and Whitby-Oshawa will be no different, making the local Liberal extremely vulnerable.
Redistribution has benefitted this riding nicely for the Conservatives. Though the Whitby component remains identical, less conservative South Ajax has been replaced with the more conservative rural and suburban North Oshawa.
Grit Judi Longfield has also been a very weak MP. She arrived in 1997 as a well-known Whitby town councillor but has been mysteriously absent since then. Though a staunch Martinite for years, she failed to increase her presence in the new Martin government. Her silence on important local issues such as bringing the ITER nuclear project to Durham Region has been deafening, and this will be no doubt be exploited by her opponent during the election.
As well, Tory candidate Ian MacNeil has a decent public profile, and has the the organisational and financial heft of the massive Jim Flaherty political machine backing him up. Coupled with being one of the most conservative ridings in the 905 belt, MacNeil and the Tories should have little problem supplanting the ineffective and invisible Judy Longfield.
20/03/04 IBM
The new Whitby-Oshawa riding is definitely going Conservative this time around. The last provincial election saw the Provincial PC candidates win all three ridings in this area. The new Conservative candidate has most of the same campaign team that led the Provincial Conservative member to a 4,000 vote margin of victory. The surge in the NDP will also help, especially since this riding now includes part of what used to be Ed Broadbent's riding. Broadbent will surely be campainging for the NDP here in the next election

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