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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:43 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:43 PM 20/03/2004

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PC Party/Parti PC:
Ardavan Behrouzi
Yvonne Bobb
Jovan Boseovski
Bernadette Michael
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Jim Peterson
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Sharolyn Vettese

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Don Valley East (2.8%)
Hon. David Collenette
Willowdale (97.2%)
Hon. Jim Peterson

2000 Result/Résultats:
24,290 61.18%
6,659 16.77%
6,520 16.42%
2,108 5.31%
125 0.31%

Don Valley East
(9/194 polls, 1995/71221 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(180/208 polls, 69172/77623 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 Art Williams
Email: artwilliams@myway.com
Last night, an all candidates meeting was held in the riding at a local church. The area should be friendly Liberal territory but it was not! Peterson was in for a rough ride and was heckled throughout the night. At one point, he raised his voice, began finger pointing and lecturing the crowd. Some people were turned off and left in disgust.
Conservative candidate Jovan Boseovski, on the other hand, was well received and seemed to keep above the fray. The Green candidate is an attractive, intellignet, well heeled woman who will take votes away on the left and the NDP is represented by a local stalwart with good name recognition. A left wing split to the Greens and NDP will greatly hurt Peterson with the Conservative poised to reap the benefit.
Finally, angry (anti-Liberal) voters will be motivated to get to the polls on Monday while Peterson's supporters will not. This one will go down to the wire with Jovan Boseovski, the Conservative candidate, winning by a slim margin.
23/06/04 Arthur
Email: [hidden]
I live in Willowdale and have been working on Jim Peterson's campaign, so I have that bias. On the doorsteps I have found a lot of people upset at the federal and provincial Liberals. However, Peterson is personally popular and several voters seemed inclined to vote for him, in spite of party affiliation. His vote will definitely be down from last time, but not enough to propel the decent, but inexperienced, Conservative candidate to victory.
21/06/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
I went canvassing with Jovan Boseovski the other day and I was amazed by the number of people who have no idea who their federal member is. Jim Who? John Tory did the walk with us and the response was enthusiastic, which may be a credit to John or maybe its the smell of trend in the air. Dave Johnson is going to win next door and Jovan has reasonable prospects. John Oostrom won this seat in similar circumstances. Povincial Lib David Zimmer winning this against star Tory David Young points to the local volatility here. Watch this one -- its going to be close.
20/06/04 Chris Purdye
Email: [hidden]
It would take a monumental shift to unseat Jim Peterson. Peterson got 60% last time, the Alliance got 15%, and the PCs got 15%. I would guess that only half of that PC vote will go Conservative; the other half will go anywhere but. I know eight people who voted PC last time and *none* of them are going Tory this time; four of them are voting Liberal and four are supporting the Greens.
20/06/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
John Cougar said it. "The walls start crumbling down." The Libs are folding here and throughout the GTA (excepting the really Italian seats and those downtown where the NDP is biting them).
Think of Zimmer here -- did anyone really think he was going to beat David Young? This riding swings with the rest of the country as it did when John Oostom wrestled it away for the Tories in '79. The national numbers are important here. Peterson is toast if the Tories are ahead nationally -- and they are.
20/06/04 DAO
Email: [hidden]
Andrew, I live in the same area of Willowdale that you named and I don't know where you're counting signs but I see at most a 5-10% edge for the Liberals. On my street alone (I agree, obviously not a very large sample) it's 5-1 for the Tories. Also, I think in ridings like Willowdale signs may not be indicative of true support, especially when you notice the lawns with 3 or 4 signs on them.
1. I think that saying the 416 vote is going NDP is a gross generalisation. Downtown Toronto will probably give 3-4 ridings to the NDP but their support is pretty much non-existent in Willowdale.
2. Actually Peterson did lose in 1979 and 1984 to the PC candidates.
3. Predicting this election based on last time's results could be misleading because of the relatively low turnout in 2000. I think that many conservative voters that stayed away last time will be more likely to vote this time.
3. I agree that Peterson looked very comfortable at the start of the campaign but I believe he has spent too long resting on his laurels. If he does manage to win it should at least be close enough to convince him to make this his last campaign.
20/06/04 Terminator
Email: [hidden]
Willowdale may turn out to be one of the most exciting races in Southern Ontario. History indicates this is a swing riding and usually rotates between one party provincially and the other federally. The riding represents the growing Canadian mosaic - multicultural, middle-class families who lean conservative but who have voted Liberal federally in the past. That trend may change this election. The Liberals have the experienced Candidate in Jim Peterson who is well-organized and well-connected. However, the Tories are running Jovan Boseovski, a young, well-spoken, articulate candidate who is committed to winning the riding back from the Liberal machine. Provincially, this is the urban-David Young-moderate conservative heartland. The provincial Tory only lost because the entire party suffered. Last election, many Alliance and PC Tories stayed home thinking there vote was meaningless and Peterson won a landslide. Now, three trends are clear: Many angry Liberals plan to stay home, the NDP and Green Party and taking the Liberal left vote, and the Tories are united as one party. This can only mean one thing - an upset. I predict a Conservative victory by less than 500 votes.
15/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Peterson has a ways to fall here. The Lib vote in the 416 seems to be going NDP, rather than CPC, yet this will always be a tough go for the party. Peterson wins on incumbency alone. he would need to have a huge bite out of his vote to lose it. With the Libs down about 10 per cent nationally, or about a quarter of their 2000 vote, that puts him at 45-50 per cent. the Conservatives will be lucky to get 30. If I recollect, Jim P. always got elected here, even in the dark days of Turner.
09/06/04 Andrew
Email: andrew.marshall@rogers.com
In my area of Willowdale, Liberal signs outnumber Conservative and NDP by about a 60/30/10 split. This is the area between Yonge, Finch, Senlac and Sheppard. For a long standing member who won the last election with over 60% of the vote to lose, it will take a greater momentum shift than what is currently happening.
07/06/04 Art Williams
Email: [hidden]
Jovan, the Conservative young candidate was at my door yesterday and said he was on track to canvass the entire riding by the end of the election. Peterson, now well into his sixties, won't be able to make that claim. If there is a Conservaitve tide in Ontario, look for this riding to be one of the first several City of Toronto ridings to go Blue since the 1980s.
03/06/04 DAO
Email: [hidden]
I have lived in the riding for many years. Here are some of my observations for this election:
1. Jovan who? Mr. Boseovski has little name recognition esp. compared to Mr. Peterson. Jim should be counting his lucky stars that he isn't running against David Young or this race would be a toss-up.
2. The fact that Mr. Peterson is a cabinet minister will not play as well for him as it does for other GTA ministers (like Bill Graham) because he doesn't get the recognition in the media as a minister very often.
3. The sign race is favouring the CPC by 3-1 in most areas I've seen. I don't know whether this is because:
a. The Peterson camp considers this a lock and doesn't want to spend money/time on signs,
b. Liberal support is concentrated in areas I don't live in/travel through,
c. The CPC has a better organised machinery, or
d. Support has genuinely shifted away from the Liberals here.
4. While I don't have statistics to support this, the demographics of Willowdale has changed quite drastically since the last election. Upper middle class immigration continues at high rate but these immigrants seem to be drawn from increasingly diverse regions (Russia, the Middle East, etc.) instead of just from South-East Asia. I don't know how (or if) this will play out.
02/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
This is one more Liberal seat that will stay that way unless there is a voter shift of historic proportions. It seems unlikely to happen, especially because Peterson is a cabinet minister. The Conservatives will run second; the NDP third.
02/06/04 journalist guy
Email: [hidden]
Ultimately, I think Peterson will take this riding - but not by the landslide that he's used to. Boseovski is a middle-class candidate in a middle-class riding. As a younger, first time-candidate, voters will see him as an alternative to what they perceive as a corrupt Liberal cabinet that cannot be trusted. Expect McGuinty's budget flip-flop to also bare some negative consquences here too. The health care premiums affect middle-class families the most. And there are plenty in this riding who are upset - the question is: Are they upset enough to vote CP? My prediction. Probably not. But it'll be close.
23/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
The recent Compas poll showed the Conservatives running neck and neck in Ontario (much to my surprise) but with the Liberals still well ahead in Toronto (in its less reliable regional sub-samples). Jovan Boseovski is the Conservative candidate and is as well placed as anyone to ride any sort of trend that appears in Willowdale. He is a local candidate, well educated, associated with Ryerson College, a classic middle-class candidate in a very middle class riding. I'm not saying he has Peterson's presence at all, but will have the advantage of running in a riding very close in the 2003 provincial election, with a lot of voters feeling the pain of the recent budget, having only one way near at hand to show their dissatisfaction and with Boseovski a perfectly useful tool for the job.
19/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Like Eglinton-Lawrence, 90s redistribution makes Willowdale "not as safe as it looks"; also remember that this was provincial Tory territory through the 90s, and David Young, the most respected 416 minister in latter-day Harris/Eves cabinets, was almost the only Toronto PC to survive 2003's rout. Were Young the CPC candidate running against Jim Peterson, we'd have a race here, no more or less than with the other ex-Harris cabinet ministers named David running for the Don Valley seats. But such isn't the case...
07/05/04 Stevo
I live in Willowdale and while the Conservatives will certainly make gains here, they won't be nearly enough to topple Jim Peterson. This riding will join with the rest of the 416 and vote back the Liberals (the 3 or 4 NDP pick-ups excepted), just as the Toronto Star dutifully instructs them.
13/04/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Say goodbye Jim. 35% Liberal, 28% Tory nationally means a CPC win here. It happened in 79 when Peterson lost to the Tory. So what if he's a minister -- he's invisible. David Young, the widely respected Tory Provincial Attorney-General lost here in the fall in the trend and so will Peterson -- this is a bellweather.
20/03/04 Gerry
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
Jim Petersen, Now as a Major Minister=
Case Closed
19/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

Under different circumstances, the Tories could pose a reasonable challenge to this seat. With Stephen Harper poised to lead the Conservatives and Jim Peterson running locally, however, this becomes a non-starter. Easy Liberal win.
19/03/04 Evan Dandy
Email: [hidden]
Jim Peterson owns this riding. He's been around since '79, with a 5 year hiatus from 1984 to 1988 when he got caught up in the Mulroney sweep.
Short of a Turner style meltdown for Paul Martin, Jim Peterson is going back to Ottawa to serve in a minority government.
19/03/04 John Edwards
Email: johnedwards2004@hotmail.com
Winning by more than 40% last time, this one is a sure-bet for Hon. Jim Peterson. The NDP has no chance here and the Conservatives are not likely to win anything in metro-Toronto. However, the seat was held by the provincial PC's under Harris-Eves.

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