Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision

www.electionprediction.com

Windsor-Tecumseh
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:28 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:42 PM 17/03/2004



Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

Candidates/candidats:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Marxist-Leninist:
Laura Chesnik
N.D.P./N.P.D.:
Joe Comartin
Conservatives/Conservateurs:
Rick Fuschi
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Rick Limoges
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Élizabeth Powles

Population 2001
populations
116,466
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs
80183

Incumbents/Les députés:
Essex (6.2%)
Hon. Susan Whelan
Windsor-St. Clair (93.8%)
Joe Comartin

2000 Result/Résultats:
Redistributed
17,741 40.42%
17,211 39.21%
6,397 14.57%
2,049 4.67%
OTHERS
496 1.13%

Essex
(15/220 polls, 5010/79405 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
1385
825
411
162
OTHER
19

Windsor-St. Clair
(206/206 polls, 75173/75173 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
16356
5572
16800
1887
OTHER
477



Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
24/06/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
Poll says it's tight; with incumbent advantage, this should tip it NDP.
17/06/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
Having watched the debates, Limoges came across as arrogant and rude. His attack on the Green candidate's understanding of economics was uncalled for - viewers are smart enough to see that "tax-shifting" to pollutants means higher gas & auto costs, and less jobs/income in Windsor even though it may the right move for sustainability. Martin's claim to be a Quebecer rather than a Windsorite in the press isn't making him too many friends down here either. Comartin was generally OK although he seemed more concerned with Fuschi than Limoges, making some snide remarks about the Conservatives being from the stone ages. Fuschi was all right, and if elected would appear to be something of a maverick, supporting auto sector subsidies & Kyoto. Limoges just got a bit of support via former PC president/electoral opponent Bruck Easton, but even that shouldn't put him over the top. Joe Comartin has paid his dues with the CAW and has done exceptional consituency work. Unless the residents of Windsor-Tecumseh opt to vote strategically in a big way, Comartin will increase his lead this time.
14/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Maybe the left-fieldiest electoral story of 2000 was two-time-loser Comartin defying the odds and eking out a tiny shining NDP beachhead in Ontario--the party's only gain that year. Joe Co's sturdy unionism is a bit of a party throwback, and proved to be no match for Layton glamour in his run for the NDP leadership--but by being there now (and joined by a by-elected neighbour), it likely means he's staying here in *ahem* Paul Martin Sr.'s old terrain. And for him to lead *at all* in that wonky Windsor Star poll all but certainly proves it...
12/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We'd like to warn people that information of a political nature found in the Windsor Star needs to be taken with a considerable grain of salt. For a case in point, look at their Ontario election 2003 synopses. Their coloured map was fraught with errors. According to them, Huron-Bruce went NDP and Trinity-Spadina is located near Kitchener (to name just two errors we found). For more reliable information one should try national polls or polls conducted by reputable polling angencies. Heck even anidotal evidence and the unreliable "lawn sign" polls predict an NDP win. Don't bet the farm on any Conservative sweep of Windsor just yet.
10/06/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@hotmail.com
While I've not seen the Windsor Star poll (so I don't know what outfit did it, or if it was a (aiiieee!!!) University Poll... of for that matter how many people were polled) but the numbers posted here add up to 70%.
Now unless there's been a sudden explosion in the Green vote hereabouts, that means that according to the poll *30%* of the electorate of Windsor-Tecumseh are undecided.
Now a figure like that is (just about) possible in Saskatchewan, but anywhere else it looks as though the company couldn't even be bothered to go through the motions by pressing for leaners (and if leaners are not pressed for, it tends to deflate support for Centre Left parties).
If that's what's happend (as looks likely) the poll isn't worth the paper it's printed on.
09/06/04 Jimmy
Email: [hidden]
Are you people serious? Move this back into the too-close-to-call category based on a poll commissioned by the Star? The Windsor Star should be ashamed of itself for printing that poll - and especially for putting it on the front page of their newspaper. It was fundamentally flawed. With a rolling sample of roughly 450 respondents and a margin or error of about 7 points it was anything but accurate. With the NDP polling between 18-20 percent nationally (the number is substantially higher in Ontario) and given Comartin's popularity and reputation, there's little doubt in my mind that he'll hold on to his seat - albeit in a tight race against Limoges. Local sentiment seems to lend credence to my assessment. I have lived in this area my entire life and can tell you that the Conservatives do not have a chance in either Windsor-Tecumseh or Windsor-West. Of this, I am POSITIVE. Masse will also win his seat, but by a smaller margin. The Conservatives do however, have a great shot at Essex.
08/06/04
Email:
Too close to call. Windsor Star poll gives Joe a 7 point lead over both the Liberals and the Conservative, 28 to 21 to 21 percent, but an incumbant with under 30% has reason to worry. This is going to be a close three way race.
07/06/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Who would have thought it? Local polling shows "no name" Tories out front in two of three Windsor-area riding, with Joe Comartin in a tight race.
06/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
Are we sure that this will remain NDP? Look at the most recent local poll from canada.com:
NDP MP Masse is actually trailing Conservative hopeful Jordan Katz by 2.7 percentage points, but with the poll's margin of error, they're locked in a statistical tie.
I think it is time to change it to Too Close To Call
05/06/04 R.F.
Email: [hidden]
Comartin has forged inroads into the riding's large Arabic community with his Pro-Palestinian Stance (opportunistic or not).
Minus a short by-election stint by Limoges, the Liberal Party has been unable to hold onto this riding since the passing of Shaunessey Cohen.
This will be a close one, but NDP will be victorious.
25/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000
To answer your question Joe, because they elected him when the NDp were polling nationally in the single digits (they have more than doubled that).
Because he is well known and well liked in the area (if you live in Windsor you'd know that by now).
Because the NDP are better funded than in 2000 and their campaign machine is well oiled and Windsor is getting plenty of NDP funds
Beacause the NDP have been campaigning in Windsor before the election call
Because (though really means very little) Comartin lawn signs can be seen all over the riding and the Liberals are almost nowhere to be found (take a drive in Forest Glade)
Because the alternative in Windsor is the liberals and they are scandal ridden with a right-leaning party leader (this is a left-leaning city)
As for his bid to run for the NDP leadership, he was up against some big guns. Most knew he would not win with names like Layton and Blaikie running. Think about it, he fared better than Shiela Copps and that was only a two way race!
Does that answer your question?
24/05/04 Joe
Email: [hidden]
One Mull Mole "Gotta respect Mr. Comartin's efforts to garner the NDP leadership spot". Why??? Didn't he place a distant 5th and gain less then 10% for the leadership vote?? If his own party isn't keen enough on him to even place above 10% why should Windsor Tecumseh vote for him??
23/05/04 James R. Martin
Email: jamertin@hotmail.com
I live in Windsor-Tecumseh. Even without "sponsorgate", my read of local sentiment was that Mr. Comartin would be re-elected; albeit in a tight race against Mr. Limoges. I have heard nothing but good concerning his constituency work, and I believe he will have strong C.A.W. support. I think the "rump" of my old party locally probably split equaly 3 ways.
23/05/04 Lineworker Bob
Email: [hidden]
T-bone is overestimating the federal Liberals strength in Windsor proper (especially since the provincial election), and underestimating the NDP's reservoir of resources in the Windsor area. It's likely that they would be stretched thin if they attempted to give the city ridings _and_ Essex equal coverage, but the New Dems have more than enough resources to wage two strong reelection battles here. I think Comartin and Masse are both favorites to win again.
11/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
Re-distribution gave this seat to the Liberals, but no matter. The NDP will win again. The NDP is more popular across the country, and in Ontario. Joe Comartin is a popular person in Windsor, and that's what won him the seat last time. The Liberal votes that beat the NDP here in the redistribution will be taken away and given to the Tories and maybe the NDP.
07/05/04 Mull Mole
Email: [hidden]
Joe Co is on one hand, an NDP Green, the other, a magnificent organizer of working folks who truly appreciate his hard work. Gotta respect Mr. Comartin's efforts to garner the NDP leadership spot. Both Windsor seats are NDP territory.
04/05/04 T-Bone
Email: [hidden]
This is going to be a very hot and contested race. Joe Comartin has been keeping a very high profile but has not brought any tangible changes to the riding since winning in 2000. In 2000 the NDP had no hope of winning Windsor-West due to the Herb Gray factor, so they poured all thier resources into Windsor-Tecumseh.
In 2004 there is chance for both NDP candidates in Windsor and only the same number of on the ground workers, they will be short. The liberals with the great showing in the provincial election have alot of horses to carry the load that should make both ridings liberal red
09/04/04 Mikey
Email:
The effect of the boundary change is being overexaggerated. If anything, the new rural voters in Tecumseh will be heading to the Conservatives, considering that former mayors Parr & Renaud were P.C. members. This will come down to who's the better man. I supported the Liberals last time, but having dealt with each of them on various matters, I can say Comartin seemed far more interested in helping me out as a constituent than Limoges was. Surely I'm not the only one with this experience who'll be switching to the NDP.
The candidates themselves are sometimes the deciding factor, more than the party. This is one of those races. Limoges *can* win, but he has a lot of ground to make up and will have to prove to us that he'll do a better job this time around.
29/03/04 Hilal M
Email: [hidden]
Rick Limoges will take this riding back, why? because Windsor wants someone to defend thier intrests and have effective representation for the current border file and other Windsor issues, recently Windsor native Prime Minister Paul Martin was with both Liberal Candidates and Rick Limoges and Richard Pollock, he promised both them and Windsorites that the Government will not impose anything on them (regarding the border file) they don't want. Whats Jack Layton and the NDP going to do when they don't even make up 5 % of the house. All the NDP has done so far in WIndsor is Complian and complian more, no results, in other words highly INeffective. Windsor recently elected two provincial Liberals who became Cabinet Ministers, and are delivering real change to the area with respect to many issues, the same will happen federaly and the NDP know it, Windsor want's represetation at the Paul Martin table, thats why they will elect Rick Limoges and Richard Pollock to represent them in Ottawa.
28/03/04 J Horn
Email: [hidden]
Well to set the record strait on why the NDP has any seats in Windsor you should go back to 2000. In 1999 Rick Limoges defeated Comartin by under 100 votes however, 2000 is the more interesting story when Limoges was defeated by a margin of around 400 votes.
How were these victories achieved??? Superior Ground teams. Limoges lost in 2000 because the NDP had no hope of winning any ridings south of London and thereby put everything into WSC and only won by 400. The Liberals on the other hand try to win elections not individual ridings so Election Day saw the NDP ground crews outmatching the Libs 5 to 1.
Today however the NDP has two ridings and maybe under the impression that they are competitive in London as well therefore the ground team is not there for them as they were in 2000. Secondly, as others have established the addition of parts of Tecumseh and rural Essex will add to the Liberal numbers by somewhere in the order of 1500 to 2000 votes for the Liberals. So I expect a Liberal win but by a margin of 1200 or so.
28/03/04 JT
Email:
If this was a couple months ago I would say that Joe Comartin would be in danger of losing this seat. But with adscam plaguing the Martin government and with Jack Layton gaining in the polls Mr.Comartin will win this seat handily.
26/03/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
Limoges was not an active MP nor an active candidate in the previous election. His campaign team was visibly annoyed at his lack of participation. I don't personally share Mr. Comartin's political views but he has been hands down a fabulous MP for Windsor-St. Clair. He never fails to help you out in your time of need, and has proven this time and time again. Even former Alliance members credit Mr. Comartin for being a staunch advocate and all-around great MP for our community.
Furthermore, while Rick Limoges previously had a profile as a very good city councillor, he has been completely absent since his loss four years ago.
As for redistribution, that's a red herring. The boundary change reflects the new City of Windsor boundary, which houses a limited amount of agricultural area and a few rural hamlets. Most new residents work in the City, and will likely steer to support their labour candidate.
24/03/04 Al M
Email: [hidden]
This is just going to be a repeat of the last provincial election, were all the NDP supporters will post on how, the NDP will win hands down , and how the labour endorsment will ensure a victory, and so on. Lets look at the reality people, This riding is a Liberal riding, why? because now because of distribution, Limoges will pick up an extra 2000 solid Liberal votes. Remember Joe Comartin only won by 400 votes last election , and Rick Limoges beat him before that. ow the Liberals have Paul Martin in Windsor supporting their stands on the border, yes the Prime Minister telling the people of Windsor that the government will not move forward without Windsor's ok. Thats comming from a Liberal Prime Minister, not Jack Layton and the NDP, who have no hope in ever forming government.
17/03/04 Craig
Email:
Joe Comartin was able to come through and steal the former Windsor-St. Clair in a bad year for the NDP. With fortunes much better, he should take this new riding as well, even though he would have narrowly lost in 2000. Predicted results: NDP 40%, Liberal 32%, Conservative 25%, others 3%.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The NDP will win both windsor ridings. It will be a battle, against Mr.Martin who was born here, but with him running in Quebec, the NDP will be able to hold on.
16/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We both agree that despite the redistribution, the NDP will keep this riding. Mr. Comartin is high profile in Windsor and the rising NDP numbers would seem to indicate that the NDP are likely to keep most, if not all, of their current seats. Much like in Windsor West, the Liberals will put up a good fight but we feel the sponsorship scandal and Mr. Layton's popularity will ensure this stays NDP.


Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster