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York Centre

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:55 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:51 PM 18/03/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Ken Dryden
Peter Flaherty
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Constantine Kritsonis
Michael Mostyn
Max Royz

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Willowdale (12.2%)
Hon. Jim Peterson
York Centre (87.3%)
Hon. Art Eggleton
York West (0.4%)
Hon. Judy Sgro

2000 Result/Résultats:
25,557 69.52%
5,183 14.10%
2,951 8.03%
2,271 6.18%
800 2.18%

(27/208 polls, 8451/77623 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

York Centre
(165/178 polls, 60297/64954 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

York West
(2/154 polls, 295/53917 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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21/06/04 RSF
Email: [hidden]
This has got to be the safest Liberal seat in Canada. It could be Ken Dryden or a Monkey, it doesn't matter the candidate. The folks here vote Liberal and only Liberal. Chalk one up for the RED.
17/06/04 Terminator
Email: [hidden]
The riding has been staunchly Liberal since Flower Power and almost certainly won't change this election. What will change are the numbers. Michael Mostyn represents a fresh face to the new Conservative Party. Young, intellectual and dedicated, he would do an amazing job for the residents of York Centre if he wins on June 28. Meanwhile, the Liberals appeared extremely desperate running an ex-hockey hero in a safe seat in order to attract national attention. It's almost as bad as CBC's CounterSpin where the panel consists of three radical activists and no opposing viewpoints. But this won't be a walk in the park for the Liberals this time. Jewish voters are upset with the Liberal party one-sided votes on the Middle East. The Filipino community, many of them devout Catholics are upset with the Liberal stance on touchy social issues like marriage and abortion. And the Russians - no one really seems to know. They might just turn the tide for someone. Dryden can't take this riding for granted. And Defacing Mostyn signs with graffiti is not only un-professional but may backfire on the culprits. If Mostyn can even pick up a third of the votes here in Liberal County, it's a job well done.
03/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Ken Dryden should join his former teammate Mahovlich in the Senate, where they like to talk. He might be the only Liberal who could get elected in this riding, name recognition being everything. All the same, do you think Ken can lose this one? As long as Martin stabilizes his core support, this one is safe. If he goes into freefall, keep an eye on the NDP.
02/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
Anyone who thinks the Conservatives (or NDP for that matter) can win this is dreaming. The Libs took roughly 70% of the vote in 2000; Ken Dryden is likely to prove as attractive a candidate as "Eggs" Eggleton, if not, indeed, a more attractive one. And although the federal Liberals may suffer from disenchantment with the provincial Liberals' tax increase, I imagine they'll lose no opportunity to remind the voters here and elsewhere in Ontario of the damage done by the provincial Tory government and the huge deficit it left behind.
01/06/04 leaf fan
Email: nofish_nuts@yahoo.com
just because Dryden was part of the Maple leaf organization does not mean people will vote for him in an election. Sure he one six stanley cups - but that was for Montreal - our bitter rivals. What has he done for Leafs - except raise ticket prices, and make us forget about the awful abuse scandals of the Ballard reign. All voters want from Dryden is his autograph and NOT his opinion. Ontario polls are showing that Liberals and Conservatives are currently tied in Ontario - and this will only go more in favour of the Conservatives (they have already made up 22 points on the Liberals and dont seem to be stoping any time soon). Dryden will not be able to make up for Liberal failure across the Country as he seems happy to sit on the sidelines on this election without even a phone number or signs.
28/05/04 W.R. Allen
Email: [hidden]
When's the last time this ultra-safe Liberal riding had a chance to choose who the Liberal representative will be? Like Eggleton, Dryden will coast to victory nonetheless.
The lead article in this week's Canadian Jewish News mentions the election. It suggests that Martin is very supportive of Israel, and few Jews will vote for the Conservatives. When mentioning this riding, it said Howard Moscoe (who isn't running) could have made a respectable showing if he was the NDP candidate. But now Moscoe's out, and it's a sure shot for Dryden. Michael Mostyn isn't even mentioned.
I'm not saying the CJN's analysis is flawless, it's pretty much what I would have suggested anyway, but it certain has more validity than Conservative propagandists flooding EP.
26/05/04 The Lobbyist
Email: [hidden]
A deluge of posts supporting Ken Dryden from individuals who take pseudonyms like "LeafFan", or have email addresses like "leafsrock@hotmail.com", are the surest sign that Dryden is on track to score yet another career shutout on his way becoming Minister for Sport.
Assuming (and this is a BIG assumption) that these individuals are not simply party hacks like the rest of us, they demonstrate the brillance and deftness of the move made by the Liberal Party in York-Centre.
Dryden needs no signs in the riding, only a general ability on behalf of his future consistuents to note the difference between his name and that of Art "I don't know where JTF2 is" Eggelton. That and a stock photo of Dryden announcing his candidacy in front of a giant Maple Leafs logo should do the trick.
26/05/04 Former York Centre Resident
Has the NDP nominated a candidate yet? What is their scheduled nomination meeting? It will be interesting to see if Howard Moscoe enters the race on behalf of the NDP. I know that he was a popular, constituency based councillor who appealed equally to the sizeable Jewish and Italian populations of the riding. If he does enter, it will make for a closer race with a lot better media sound bites from Moscoe than Dryden can every hope to deliver. I still believe this is too strong a Liberal riding to lose.
24/05/04 Leaf Fan
Email: [hidden]
So the campaign has started and Ken Dryden STILL does not have a phone number or any signs. He is happy to be the 'stuffed dog' that the papers have predicted could win in this riding. The Mostyn campaign has been making headlines (page 7 of today's sun). The Liberals have once again showed that they live in ivory towers and are out of touch with the community. It is time the voters got a change!!!!!!
23/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
A small addenda about Dryden. He certainly demosntrated a blunt honesty when asked if he intended to move to his riding..."No"...He has huge advantages in the riding and will win, in my view, but Mostyn, the Conservative candidate, being a local with roots in the east end Jewish neighbourhoods, may parlay that into a decent neighbourhood vote for him against a seemingly uninterested outsider with his sights set on Ottawa and not on the people he is asking to represent.
19/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Any other election year I would have been off my rocker, but this time I was prepared for the possibility of an Art Eggleton scare--although "scare" in this case might mean winning with less than 50% of the vote. At best, Mostyn is making a test run for the future (whether here or elsewhere); and while Augimeri would certainly have garnered attention for the NDP, her real support's largely confined to the Downsview area (and as with many suburban New Democrats, her persistence is more like musty spillover from 70s/80s political culture than like anything fresh).
The replacement of Eggleton by Ken Dryden, however, changes everything--in fact, for Martin to score a "John Tory Liberal" like Dryden is in its way a bigger coup than his lure of NDPers like Dosanjih, Axworthy, Murray etc. Now, there's no longer any doubt as to York Centre's safety; in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Dryden scores the best Liberal result in Ontario--or even *Canada*.
13/05/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
With the announcment of Ken Dryden as a Liberal candidate any hope that the tories had to take this seat just went down the tube. Dryden is a household name and will cross party lines to pick up all kinds of support. Sadly, chalk this one up as a Liberal hold.
13/05/04 Jason Hou
Email: leafsrock@hotmail.com
Ken Dryden in York Centre? Now it may happen, when Former Mayor, Minister, announced today he won't be running in the election. What does this mean?, not much. Dryden virtually has no political experience, maybe his management experience with the Toronto Maple Leafs may help. This is still pretty safe liberal seat. I don't know the reason why he would want to run, I guess we will find out.
13/05/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
So Eggs is out and Ken Dryden is in -- with controversial Liberal out of strong Liberal seat in favour of "star" candidate Dryden, I don't think there's much of a race -- unless the Conservatives drop Don Cherry in here.
12/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Rumours abound that Eggleton will resign as nominated candidate and be replaced by Ken Dryden...undoubtedly a star candidate for the Liberals and quite an excellent surprise to unleash...The Conservative candidate Michael Mostyn should make some inroads in the heavily Jewish east end of the riding, but the west will stay solidly Liberal and elect Dryden. Redistribution faintly aids the Copnservatives because of the addition of some polls in Willowdale and the loss of a heavily Italian neighbourhood to York West. The riding gains Downsview airport, which I think has been slated for residential development, but I am not aware of any housing that will come with the airport at this time.
12/05/04 Vincent
Email: motherdo4@hotmail.com
So, maybe Art, maybe Ken. Don't get this fan of the Montreal Canadiens wrong. I'll be waiting to hear what Mr. Dryden has done for 'this' community. Even still, the 'star candidate' stature, and the fact that the Liberals have a stronghold in this area, will be enough to propel him into Parliament. The same could have been said for the useless Eggleton. I'd love to see Mostyn win, but it won't happen. There's not enough momentum for a CPC swing nationally, which is what he would need.
Email: [hidden]
So Maria Augimeri isn't running...not that it would have resulted in Art Eggleton's defeat. Eggleton is just in one of the safest Liberal ridings, in Canada (with its Grit-friendly Jewish and Italian communities), and he's not going anywhere any time soon (not that that's a good thing, I'm not a fan of the Liberals). The working class areas of this postwar suburban riding aren't in the orbit of the Layton phenomenon, and the NDP in Toronto isn't a working class party anyway. A prediction of the Conservatives "slipping through" is equally absurd as a strong NDP finish. Prediction: LIB 67%, CPC 18%, NDP 12%, others 3%
07/05/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
All this talk about the NDP taking this riding is foolish. There is no way they can come from 6% to over 40%, which will most likely be the amount any of the candidates will need to win. If anything, this works in Mostyn's favour. Splitting on the left means that the popular, local and young Conservative may come up the middle. (Assuming the NDP picks up at least 20% at the expense of the Liberals)
29/04/04 Jimmy
Email: [hidden]
I hear Maria Augimere (the very popular city councillor) will run as the NDP candidate in this riding. If she does the scandal plagued Art Egleton is finished.
26/04/04 Aaron
Email: aaronlaufer@canada.com
I'm somewhat surprised people are even trying to dream up situations where this seat doesn't go Liberal. Art won with over 70% of the vote last time. Pending some sort of divine intervention on one of the other candidates' behalves he's going to win again fairly easily.
19/04/04 MJ
Email: ryan_593@hotmail.com
Eggleton will win again, despite the fact that he had a minor scandal and was a generally unexceptional defence minister. This riding has a pretty strong Liberal slant, meaning it'd be tough for him not to win.
16/04/04 Dave
Email: [hidden]
I highly doubt the NDP can make up enough ground to win this riding, no matter how popular Jack Layton is or what their "poll" shows. However, if the NDP (and Green) can take enough votes away from Eggleton, it will provide Michael Mostyn an opportunity to take advantage of the split left wing vote, considering the narrowing margin province wide between the Liberals and Conservatives.
12/04/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
Might be time to reconsider this prediction. Bruce Demera at the Toronto Star (04/12/04) reports that city councillor Maria Augimeri is considering a run for the NDP, and that internal party polling shows her within striking distance of Art Eggleton.

"Councillor Maria Augimeri is inching ever closer to taking the leap into federal politics, even though incumbent Liberal MP Art Eggleton is to seek re-election, despite his dim prospects of a future return to cabinet. The former defence minister (and Toronto mayor) left the front benches a while back due to a minor scandal over a contract awarded to an ex-squeeze, and Augimeri had earnestly hoped he would seek employment elsewhere. But Maria is awfully heartened by a poll dropped on her desk by Strategic Communications - doubtlessly funded by the federal NDP - which shows her chances of winning, even against incumbent Eggleton, are pretty darn good. (If "Jack Layton's NDP" is spending scarce resources to poll in York Centre, they must figure they've got a shot.) The poll places Maria within striking distance of Art in the regularly Liberal red riding, placing her personally well above the party's numbers and Eggleton apparently well behind the Libs. For Maria, the risk of taking the leap is relatively small. Like her fellow N-Dipper Olivia Chow - who has an even better chance of getting to Parliament Hill - she only has to take a leave of absence and forgo about a month's pay. If she wins, hey, huge pay hike, new challenges, yada yada. If she loses, well, so what? Her old job awaits."

28/03/04 JT
The only surprise here is that Eggs is running after his absymal run as Defense minister. Luckily for him this is one of the safest Liberal seats in the country.
26/03/04 mike
i would actually like to take back my prediction. Art Eggleton showed leadership when he went to the Anti-Hate rally, and the word that he was there is making people have a much more positive impression of him.
19/03/04 mike
Email: ladida@hotmail.com
Now common sense says Liberal, but if you play close attention to the facts, this might be more of a horse-race. Mostyn, the Conservative nominee, is a young, popular and charasmatic person who can relate to the constituents of York Centre and alot of experience. His stance in the Middle East and crime will resonate with voters here. Art Egglton, on the other hand, is the king of scandals and that will surely not help him here. He is going to be painted as an old, and stale MP, who has been there too long. He has been demoted by Chretien, of all people, from the Defence Post to backbencher, and was almost charged criminally for squandering task payers money on a trip for a lady-friend, if I recall. Anyways, this will be tight.
17/03/04 Evan Dandy
Email: [hidden]
This riding is safely Liberal, probably for eternity. The Liberals could run a stuffed dog here and win.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
this, the 4th best riding in Ontario for the Liberals will re-elect a Liberal MP

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