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York South-Weston

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:56 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:22 AM 19/03/2004

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Paul Ferreira
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Jessica Fracassi
Stephen Halicki
Shirley Hawley
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Alan Tonks

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
York South-Weston (100.0%)
Alan Tonks

2000 Result/Résultats:
15,744 45.72%
1,740 5.05%
1,273 3.70%
977 2.84%
14,702 42.69%

York South-Weston
(160/165 polls, 62078/62127 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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21/06/04 Insider
This is ALL Tonks, I am not sure the people in York South Western are prepared to elect an openly gay candidate in Ferreria. Halicki has a chance of getting more votes over the Green Party, but that's all. This is Tonks.
17/06/04 Matt
Email: [hidden]
I believe given the strong political history of how York South has voted, the Liberals can count on this riding to stay Red. People vote more on personal integrity rather than party ideology (although being more mainstream does help the Liberals). Overall, The Tonks team seems to be overpowering the opposition as they are working day and night. Hylicki looks like he has given up. Ferreira, from the NDP, looks like he's on his own since he can't even find the manpower to keep his campiagn office open during the day. If the Liberals do survive nationally, Tonks should definately be considered for a cabinet post.
06/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
Four years ago I predicted a narrow victory for Tonks over Nunziata. With the latter apparently not running this time, the NDP should give Tonks a decent fight, but he will almost certainly get back in. The Conservatives are unlikely to be a factor. Colour this one red.
19/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
The poor man's Art Eggleton, Alan Tonks epitomizes the longtime municipal hack in his political dotage, vegetating in the House of Commons as if it were the Senate or something. (At least his neighbour Judy Sgro is "doing things".) Now that Nunziata's gone and Layton's the leader, expect the NDP to reclaim a fair degree of its "natural" support and even stake a serious claim to win--in this territory of federal and provincial CCF/NDP leaders past, why not? Poetically appropriate, that. Even if Ferreira carries that dicey whiff of parachuted cannon-fodder as if it were still the Audrey or Alexa years; but he's not bad as cannon fodder goes. In the meantime, the odds still favour, for now, Alan Tonkzzzzzzzz...
18/05/04 Grayon
Email: [hidden]
There is absoloutely no chance that this riding will go conservative or new democrat in the upcoming election. The NDP candidate is from Brampton and has no history in the riding and the Conservative candidate was anihilated by Joe Cordiano in the provincial election.
If Halicki couldn't win this with Ernie Eves as his leader, he certainly won't with Stephen Harper as his leader. And the NDP candiate slogan is 'Get Involved! Support Paul!". I think there's a little more well known Paul people will think of on E-Day.
Alan Tonks has a family political history going back over fifty years in this riding, and he's managed to do a good job as an M.P. This race will be a wash.
19/04/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
If there are ten Liberal seats in the next Parliament this will be one of them. Al Tonks is a good guy, who works hard, in a incredibly Liberal riding. Nunziata as a Tory is a joke. He could have ran as a Tory in 2000 and knew that the party (either PC or Alliance) was a liability here. Maria Augimeri would be an equally pathetic choice. She's the laziest member of City Council and has been for years. Her much more credible husband, Oduardo Di Santo couldn't hold on to his provincial seat for the NDP. Get real. Alan Tonks in a walkover!
12/04/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
The Toronto Star (04/12/04) reports that city councillor Maria Augimeri is considering a run for the NDP in the neighboring York Centre riding (see my submission for that riding for details). The NDP has apparently been seeing some favorable internal polling numbers there, which may suggest a return to historic party strength in the York region. With the potential for a Nunziata conservative run here in York South-Weston, I think the NDP may be well positioned to come up the middle here.
02/04/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

John Nunziata's star has been severely tarnished over the past few years.
To recap: when Nunziata bolted from the Liberals in 1996, it was on a question of principle relating to the GST. At the time, he was popularly regarded as being to the *left* of the Liberal Party establishment (the GST *is* a regressive tax, after all, and one which the Liberals had opposed from a 'left-wing populist' standpoint in 1989/90). When JN ran for re-election in 1997, he all but presented himself as an "Independent Liberal", downplaying ideology in favour of a maverick populist appeal. Many of the people who voted for him probably expected that he'd continue with the populist-left approach of his Rat Pack days.
Unfortunately, the reality of "John Nunziata, Independent MP" turned out to be something rather different -- he championed social *and* economic conservatism (including a curious decision to endorse capital punishment, which he had vehemently opposed in 1986), and began flirting with the likes of Mike Harris and the Canadian Alliance. Despite his continued 'maverick' stance, these positions were enough to drag him down in the decidedly *non*-CA/Harris territory of York South-Weston -- the only real surprise of the 2000 election was how close the final results turned out to be.
After his disastrous mayoral campaign (some publicity *is* bad publicity, it turns out), I can't imagine that Nunziata has any desire to embarrass himself in public again (not so soon, at least). I suspect that he won't run at all -- if he does, he'll find that the Conservative banner is a millstone around his neck in this area. One way or the other, Mr. Tonks will be given another chance to manouever for a cabinet posting ...
30/03/04 Dennis Smythe
Email: [hidden]
I think Tonks will hang on to his seat, but by how much is hard to say. Rumor has it that John Nunziata will run for the Conservatives. He'll put a "populist", even rhetorically pro-working class spin on the CPC. His base is really among the working class white ethnic homeowners of the riding as his call for "toughness on crime" reasonates with a sizeable chunk of this group. I also think the NDP will do far better in what was once the riding of David Lewis - they have Paul Ferreira running, a young, very articulate Portuguese immigrant who served as president of the Rosedale riding association, this despite his not living in York South-Weston. Not that it will do enough, as the NDP's appeal in Toronto is much stronger in the old city proper, York South-Weston isn't really Layton country.
Prediction (assuming Nunziata and Ferreira run): LIB 50%, CPC 30%, NDP 18%, others 2%
24/03/04 Evan Dandy
Email: [hidden]
Heard third party rumour today that Nunziata is considering a run for the Conservatives in his old riding. "Bring back integrity blah blah"
If this rumour is true, Allan Tonks could suffer the indignity of being the only Grit to lose his 416 riding to a Conservative.
18/03/04 V.D.
Email: bench_breaker@hotmail.com
Unless nuziata decides to run again, this is probably a very safe liberal seat.

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