Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:06 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
10:44 AM 6/23/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Terry Duguid
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Jacob Giesbrecht
Lorene Mahoney
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Katharine Reimer
Joy Smith
Parti Marijuana Party:
Rebecca Whittaker

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Winnipeg North Centre (19.2%)
Judy Wasylycia-Leis
Winnipeg North-St. Paul (78.7%)
Hon. Rey Pagtakhan
Winnipeg-Transcona (2.1%)
Hon. Bill Blaikie

2000 Result/Résultats:
11,804 32.56%
10,158 28.02%
10,113 27.89%
3,521 9.71%
661 1.82%

Winnipeg North Centre
(39/162 polls, 10915/48124 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Winnipeg North-St. Paul
(123/161 polls, 44790/58671 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(5/178 polls, 1185/56226 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
24/06/04 MD
Email: [hidden]
Although I think and hope that Smith will win Kildonan St. Paul I am some what surprised to see it called be fore Winnipeg North, Winnipeg Center, and Selkier Interlake. As well I think it is much closer of a race the Charleswood St. James, where I would say the CPC not the Lib's have a bit of an edge. Well we will see on E-Day is the web master is correct, I think they may be but I am still shocked that it was called prior to some of the other ridings in Manitoba.
How can you call K-St. P Conservative while Selkirk Interlake is too close to call? Selkirk is definitely going Conservative while Kildonan-St. Paul is too close to call but leans Liberal, in my humble opinion. The Winnipeg Free Press had a poll which showed the Liberals getting destroyed by the Conservatives in Manitoba, yet in the city of Winnipeg, the Liberals has some way, some how managed to hold on to their lead over the Conservatives. This means that city ridings like Kildonan St. Paul and South Centre will be painted red on Monday, while Selkirk Interlake and Provencher will be painted blue.
23/06/04 Jacob
I just took a drive down Leila, right in the heart of the riding. I saw 15 Signs for Duguid, 7 signs for Mahoney and One sign for Smith.
21/06/04 Brian
Email: [hidden]
This riding is adjacent to the one in which I live, and Joy Smith will take this it. Despite the provincial PC's poor results in June 2003, North Kildonan and East St. Paul voted substantially Tory. I know signs don't mean a lot - but Joy is outsigning here nearest rival by at least 8 to 1. The fact that the non-Tory votes will be split between the Libs and NDP will also help Joy.
20/06/04 Jim
Email: [hidden]
This riding is going conservative, that's for sure. Consider the evidence:
Dr. Rey, a federal cabinet minister, would have beaten a combined Conservative candidate by a mere 100 or so votes. This time, there is no Liberal cabinet minister running in this riding, also the polls that had the most liberal support (the Maples) are now in a different riding due to riding redistribution. If you use the 2000 results with this years' boundaries, there would be a Conservative MP in Kildonan St.Paul right now. This riding will be blue on June 28th. (oh and by the way, no one in East or West St. Paul will be voting for Duguid who is on record as saying that there should be toll booths for everyone driving into Winnipeg)
20/06/04 Chris
Email: christhomas@hotmail.com
The thing about this riding is that the liberal vote has collapsed and it is moving ndp because smith is to far to the right for this area. Gary Doer and Dave Chomiak, a provincial minister, live in the area and are very popular. The provincial ndp has been putting alot of effort into this area. It's a tight battle but i give the ndp a slight edge. It will be a great riding to watch on election day.
11/06/04 Jacob
Lorene Mahoney is winning the sign war, but guess what signs don't vote. What matters is who can get their vote out on election day.
Email: [hidden]
I think some people are giving Duguid too much credit here.
- He does not enjoy the voting block that insured Ray (I never return phone calls unless one threatens to publicize my voting record) won the last election.
- The disease centre will not play that much into the game no matter how much he tires. Main reason being is that it will be located well away from the riding, mostly employ professionals, many whom will come from Ottawa or other parts of Canada, and won’t settle anywhere south of West Kildonan with their salary range. Any menial low wage jobs it will create can’t be guaranteed to go to Wpg/St.Paul voters anymore then any other riding. Economic spin off from this will be low to non apparent in this riding.
- He may have a few former workers from the long past (and failed) Rudy Derksen council campaign but to say they are Conservatives is grasping, more like opportunists who switch hit depending on the weather. Not to mention if they are who I think they are, having them help run Duguid team is actually reason to believe he now has less chance of winning.
- As for the sign war, LOL! Who judges a campaign by the signs? Not anyone who has really been involved in politics. Signs are just a smoke show, although everyone has to play or get burned.
It will be close, but the CPC will take this one.
06/06/04 Rich Thurston
Email: [hidden]
Another race that should be incredibly close.
It's a shame that political apathy from the general public will prevent most voters from knowing about Joy Smith's blatant hypocrisy. As mentioned before, she complained for the duration of last year's provincial vote that the NDP was running a candidate that did not live in the Fort Garry riding that she represented. After being defeated, Ms. Smith gets nominated in a riding that is clear across town from where she lives.
Many areas of this riding are strongly conservative, which should play in Ms. Smith's hands.
Terry Duguid was a popular city councillor so he does have some name recognition.
The NDP has enough of a presence in the western portion of the riding that they'll likely siphon some votes away from the Liberals, but won't get enough to be a legitimate contender.
A small CPC victory is what I'm predicting, but it could swing either way.
06/06/04 G Kennedy
Email: [hidden]
As a former resident of West St. Paul, this is a tough one to call. There's something for every party in this riding: a bit of North Winnipeg that is historically NDP turf, a few good liberal polls in the centre/west portions of the riding, and for the Conservatives, North Kildonan and East St. Paul. Unless we see a dramatic reversal of fortune for the Liberals between now and June 28, I'm guessing it will go conservative, but not by much.
06/06/04 switch hitter
Email: [hidden]
Duguid is not well recieved on west side of river, has been around a long time, but what has he delivered? As a councillor his record his ninth in the batting order. Joy Smith is good, and West Kildonana, Garden City and the St pauls will support her. Can Duguid keep the vote on east side where he grew up, if they know him well, probably not!
I think the NDP and Liberal vote will split each other enough to allow Joy Smith to win this one by a narrow margin. It also helps that Conservative support is on the rise in Manitoba and across the country.
Duguid is winning the sign war,but not by much. This area seems to be going his way. The NDP however could give him a fight! I dont think Joy is in the running.
25/05/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
This is another three way battle in the City of Winnipeg, but I think that if the Conservatives have a strong national campaign than Joy Smith will be able to beat Duguid and the NDP. As allready mentioned, Duguid and his team were enraged that Reg Alcock and his people were trying to dump him and run Glen Murray in this riding, this has resulted in a great deal of tension between Duguid and the central campaign, not something that is helpful in such a close race. Joy Smith as been campaigning hard in this riding for many months and I don't think the fact that she lives across the city is going to emerge as a big issue in the campaign. What will be interesting to watch is how strong the NDP campaign is in this riding, and how the much of the large ethnic communites that supported Dr. Rey will show up to vote.
25/05/04 Rob
Email: [hidden]
This is a toss up - perhaps the most exciting race in Manitoba.
The Liberals have run a left leaning candidate, which will damage the NDP's chances. The Liberals have the baggage of the AdScam and general voter malaise to contend with, which will hurt Liberal chances. Joy Smith campaigned as an MLA in 2003 in Fort Garry, and made a big issue of how the NDP candidate that beat her didn't even live in her riding. Guess what? THe tables have turned and Smith doesn't live in Kildonan-St.Paul. Voters tend not to like hypocrites too much, and that may come back to haunt her.
This race will come down to whether or not the Liberal vote collapses. If it does, the NDP will win. If not, you've got to like the Conservatives. The Liberals are unlikely victors given the mood right now, but could conceivably walk the mother of all tightropes to eke out a narrow win.
I'll have fun watching this race on June 28th.
23/05/04 The Hack
Email: threeoheightseats@hotmail.com
On the ground, this is a three-way battle. All three parties are running hard, but here's why I think it'll go to Joy Smith:
1) Dr. Rey Pagtakhan could have easily run here and not face off against popular NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis in Winnipeg North. After all, the majority of his riding stayed here. He didn't. That's got to be telling of the Liberal chances.
2) Terry Duguid had his nomination decision jerked around by Ottawa. More than once the riding was given the go-ahead to hold the nomination meeting, only to have Ottawa call Reg Alcock and pull that permission (they were holding the seat for Glen Murray to choose if he wanted it - another sign of the Liberal chances). I don't think the local Liberals were pleased at that, so their volunteer base might not be as strong as otherwise.
3) Joy Smith has been campaigning hard for over six months. And she has a strong volunteer base. I've been told it's a very-well run campaign.
4) Now, why not the NDP? Well, I think they are going to do very good, but I also think that Terry Duguid, while not strong enough to capture the soft right-wing vote to win, will hold enough of the soft-Liberal support that the NDP would need to win.
19/05/04 Tania
Email: [hidden]
This is a race between the Liberal candidate, Terry Duguid and the Conservative Joy Smith. As others have said, sadly, Lorene Mahoney is not a serious threat to Duguid or Smith and will be a 'also ran' in this campaign. Joy's big problem is not that she is a carpet bagger (I think people will initially be taken back by hyprocracy from her provinical run, but it won't be that much of a vote turner) Her big problem is she is a social conservative of the Stockwell Day mold. This might get her votes out on the East Side of the riding (frankly she had those votes even if she was a moderate on social issues) but will really hurt her in ethnic and middle-working class western part of her riding. With the NDP here not a factor, the guy who worked with Frank Plumber to bring the disease centre to Winnipeg will win massively on the west side of the river, and has strong name recognition on the east (where he was a popular city counsellor). Winning the west and being competitive in the east is the formula Duguid needs to keep this seat for the Grits. I would like to say that those who question Pagtakhan's decision to run in winnipeg north, i couldnt agree more. Kildonan St Paul has a more natural liberal base - I guess Pagtakhan wanted to keep his *personal* base in the Maples, but Kildonan St. Paul is more likely to go Liberal than Winnipeg North
19/05/04 Friendly Manitoban
Email: [hidden]
I think that there is a purpose to this site and that it does not include calling any candidate a carpet-bagger! As much as I appreciate being told that the Conservatives are evil and are going to destroy the country, I think we have to draw the line. The smear campaigns are uncalled for. How about a debate of ideas?
Email: [hidden]
You said it yourself Nick. "Most people don't remember what happened here." Duguid is the nominated Liberal candidate and that's what people will care about during the election. However, the fact that Ms. Smith is a carpet -bagger from Fort Garry could become an issue.
15/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Most people are forgetting what happened here. A sitting MP has abandoned this, which by all accounts is the successor to his current riding, to run elsewhere. There have to be more then a few people who feel betrayed, and in a race this close, those few people can decide the election. I think this riding will either go to the CPC, or NDP, and right now, an NDP victory looks more likely.
15/05/04 Jacob
Agreed Liberal win here. The announcement of the bio-med city (Centre for Disease Control North) which Duguid was the task force co-chair will cement his win. The NDP candidate in this area is not a serious candidate (nobody has any idea who she is or could even pick her out of a lineup), which can only help the Liberals. I would like to point out that Alon Weinberg, the Green candidate is in fact running in Winnipeg North, not Kildonan-St. Paul.
13/05/04 The Watcher
Email: [hidden]
Most of the recent polling done in Manitoba as of late reveals a deep divide. In Winnipeg the Liberals poll like it's Ontario, their support riding into the 40's. Outside Winniepg it's an Alberta result with the Librals stuck in the high teens. I think Mr. Duguid given this is a mostly urban riding should prevail rather comfortably on election night. The fact that Ms. Smith comes off a s a bit of a "pill" does not hurt him either.
08/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Some months of election speculation and this riding is stil tight and very hard to predict...yesterday's IPSOS-REID poll lacked detail, but suggests the Conservatives gained a bit on the Prairies and BC while the Liberals and NDP dipped nationally. Joy Smith will be the best known of the candidates (though her riding lay outside the federal one, I think...)and in a good position to solidify the largely Alliance vote that makes up the largest proportion of the Conservative vote here. This is probably a riding where the winnier will take 35% of the vote unless one of the three main parties takes a dive during the election...
01/05/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
Normaly I would not even consider this seat for the NDP but the provincial party is putting a lot of resources into this seat and the Doer people think that it is winnible for them. One to watch on election night.
29/04/04 Kildonans
Email: [hidden]
If Duguid gets the nod, it's only because the Mayor doesn't want it. If this riding had any Liberal potential, Glen would have had the riding a long time ago. Duguid is known as an ineffective councillor in the East and is known on the West as a mayoral loser. After the Liberal scandal, the Libs all but through this seat away. Why else would Dr. Rey leave?
24/04/04 Webster
Email: [hidden]
If Terry Duguid is the candidate, this seat goes Liberal. Terry has a strong personal base on the East side combined with a strong Liberal base on the west side. The NDP is not a factor here, they are running some no name, concentrating instead on protecting Judy in North and Pat in Centre. This is a polarizing campaign between Terry and the uber right wing Joy Smith. NDP voters will either hold their breath and vote Liberal or stay at home. Either way, Terry wins.
01/04/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Rey Pagtakhan's decision to abandon 80% of his riding to run elsewhere wont be forgot easily. This riding will lash out, and elect someone from the CPC or NDP in return.
31/03/04 Disaffected Liberal
Email: wjs_m@hotmail.com
As someone who worked very closely with Dr. Pagtakhan in his last two campaigns and an active member of the Liberal Party in the riding for about as long as I can remember, I have to say that I am very disappointed with what has been going on both in Ottawa and in Winnipeg.
There is a reason that Terry Duguid doesn't have the nomination and that nominations in the riding have been frozen. I am not at liberty to divulge any details, but what I can say is that the Liberal party in the riding (as in Ottawa and the rest of the country) is very much divided. There are a lot of us who just don't think that Duguid is the right guy for the job, and I have no qualms about saying that.
The NDP candidate, Lorene Mahoney, is simply not an option. Her only claim to fame is that she is on the provincial NDP executive, and in all honesty, I have never voted NDP, and I don't plan to start voting for Jack Layton any time soon.
30/03/04 Jacob
Email: [hidden]
Mr. Manitoba says that Joy Smith has gone leaps and bounds to get her name out there... if anything that is a detriment to her campaign because she is so appalling to anyone who is remotely moderate in their political ideology. The 'more people get to know' Joy Smith, the higher the votes will be for the Liberals and for the NDP. As for Terry Duguid not running, that is completely false. There are four Liberals meetings yet to be called in Winnipeg, Charleswood because of the Glen Murray situation, Transcona, Winnipeg South - King Alcock's fiefdom and Kildonan-St. Paul. I dont know why the ridings other than Charleswood are being held up, but regardless, I can safely say that both Reg Alcock and Terry Duguid will be candidates.
26/03/04 Mr.Manitoba
Email: [hidden]
Definetly a riding to watch on Election night. Mrs. Smith has been working hard since day one to ensure that she carries a presence within the community. It would be fair to say the redistribution will cause this riding to become a closer and tighter race, although as previously mentioned Joy has done a tremendous Job in enhancing her profile, with many mailers, door knocking, phoning and a campaign office, it is very clear that Joy is a strong contender.
Keeping in Mind that Terry Duguild has declared his candidacy he has not been nominated (it is rumoured he won't run at all) and Lorene Mahoney may be known in her community of West St. Paul but not throughout; Joy has gone leaps and bounds to build her persona and have people base their opinions on her from what she has done...the constituents haven't had the chance to let the media define her.
Like I have said before, the redistribution is going to make it close, but I think that Joy has already taken the right steps to be a cut above the rest and tip the scales in favour of a Conservative MP.
24/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Best three way race in all of Manitoba.The NDP likely have the edge over the Liberals or the Conservatives but it is by no means in the bag. Redistribution is going to help them as is the lack of an incumbant. If the poll numbers stay stable we'll make an NDP call. For now, no guess.
23/03/04 Ghoris
Contrary to 'The Hack's' submission, the big winner from the redistribution is the NDP, which goes from 7,931 in the old Winnipeg North - St. Paul to 10,113 on the new boundaries. The Conservatives actually *lose* 1,300 votes while the Grits lose 2,700 votes. Therefore, I'm not ready to give Joy Smith the edge yet. As I stated below, the CPC organization is no stronger this time around than in 2000, when the federal PC association decided to work for the Alliance candidate. And I'm not convinced that being a backbench opposition MLA from Fort Garry will have all that much significance in North and West Kildonan or the St. Pauls.
I think some posters are counting out Terry Duguid too quickly. I'm told that he actually has a number of former Alliance and PC backers on his team, including a number of people who ran Rudy Derksen's city council campaign in 1998 and Vic Toews' provincial campaign in Rossmere in 1999. I have no doubt he will be a formidable candidate.
Barring some major misstep by one of the candidates or federal leaders, I see this race going down to the wire.
20/03/04 MD
Email: [hidden]
Looking at the redistribution of the constituency I believe that is will be a tight race if the PC vote will go to Joy Smith. If the majority of the PC vote was on the east side of the river it should go to Smith. The east side is a conservative area and the former PC voters will not have a problem voting for the CPC and the former PC MLA. However the PC vote on the west side will likely be spilt between the CPC and Liberals, so if most of the PC vote in 2000 was cast in this area it will help the Liberals out a lot. I believe that this will be a tight 3 way race, but if Smith works hard and meets the people of the district she will pull it off and have a comfortable victory.
19/03/04 The Hack
Email: threeoheightseats@hotmail.com
Joy Smith is already campaigning hard and apparently has a strong organization from what I hear. The redistribution is much friendlier to her than Terry Duguid or the NDP (have they nominated anyone yet?). Factor in a better CPC campaign than anything the CA or PC had in 2000, as well as an intangible or two, and this should be the second CPC pick up in the city (of a possible three max.)
19/03/04 syllap
Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com
Joy Smith of the Conservative is a very good candidate and so is this Lorene woman for the NDP , the Liberal will not be able to save this one.....the ladies will battle it out...
17/03/04 Jacob
Email: [hidden]
Minor detail. Somebody mentioned that Terry Duguid was defeated for his city council position. In fact he was undefeated on council. He lost his mayoral campaign against Susan Thompson who was a very popular incumbant, but he fairly well in that campaign regardless.
17/03/04 Ghoris
Email: [hidden]
A true tossup, probably the hardest seat to call in the province.
I expect a strong campaign from all three parties. There has been a history of Conservative and Alliance cooperation here (the local PC association didn't even want to run a candidate in 2000, the national party had to appoint one) so I expect they will run a strong campaign. Joy Smith may have more name recognition than Trevor Sprague did, but not much in this area of the city. Her strong religious background and social conservative bent could both help and hurt her in this riding.
Terry Duguid for the Liberals will have the most name recognition. Contrary to what a poster below stated, Duguid was never voted out as a city councillor and therefore the claim that 75% of his campaign team was working against him is totally bogus. Duguid gave up his North Kildonan council seat in 1995 to run for mayor and lost to Susan Thompson. He has been chair of the Clean Environment Commission since 1999. He will be a strong candidate, but the Liberals will suffer from the boundary changes and an almost complete absence of any party machinery on the east side of the river.
As for the NDP, I really don't know anything about Lorene Mahoney other than that she's a nurse and sits on the NDP provincial executive. I was a bit surprised that the NDP was unable to entice a 'star' candidate to contest this riding as it's clearly their best shot for a pickup in the province. With the NDP's numbers running higher than in 2000, they are definitely in contention. However, the Liberals may again be able to successfully play the strategic voting card and convince enough NDP-leaning voters to vote Liberal to keep the Conservatives out.
A true tossup. We'll have to wait and see how the national campaign unfolds.
17/03/04 Jacob
Email: [hidden]
This is going to be a race between the Libs and the Conservatives for a couple of reasons. 1. Rey Pagtakhan is NOT running here, he is following the ethnic vote and running a against Judy W.L. in Winnipeg North. 2. Terry Duguid, popular former city counsellor and the guy responsible for CDC North is the Liberal candidate. 3. Joy Smith, though has to deal with the fact that she criticized her NDP opponent in the Prov. election for not living in the riding still DOES NOT LIVE IN KILDONAN ST. PAUL, but is an effective campaigner and will get all the churches to organize the religious right. The NDP nominated a nobody. The NDP will be too busy fighting 'Mr. Foodbank' David Northcott in Winnipeg Centre and fighting Pagtakhan in Winnipeg North to fight two very prominent opponents in Kildonan-St. Paul leaving a polarized fight between Duguid and Smith. I predict that Smith scares the hell out of NDPers who will vote for Duguid giving him a small victory.
17/03/04 Jon F
Email: [hidden]
To be clear, Rey Pagtakhan is not running in this riding - he is contesting Winnipeg North. Kildonan-St.Paul is a wealthy suburban riding, and should be a good match between the new Liberal nominee(drawing on Pagtakhan's remaining support in the re-drawn constituency) and Joy Smith, the well-known Conservative candidate.
16/03/04 Thorfinn
Email: [hidden]
Another 3-way race for Manitoba. Each party has strong pockets of bedrock support here, but the Doer machine is gearing up to fight hard for Layton's New Democrats, and if the national campaign takes off, this seat is vulnerable to the NDP, even if Rey P. chooses to stay here rather than face off against Judy W-L in Winnipeg North. If Rey's out, then the chances of an NDP pickup increase considerably.
Email: [hidden]
At any rate I am overseas but will be voting in Winnipeg/St.Paul. I picked the Conservatives for a number of reasons.
First, in the last election the CA board/campaign ran a no name candidate against a strong Liberal incumbent who had a guaranteed voter base in the large Filipino community on the west side (himself being Filipino). With this in front of them they ran an excellent campaign and pushed this no name candidate within 8 or 9% of winning if I remember right. The Libs brought in Chretien and Martin for appearances in the riding even, to help protect the seat; keeping these things in mind fast forward to 2004.
Second, the Conservative party has more then twice the war chest to start with this election then they did before the start of last. The candidate has experience as an MLA and former candidate in a different riding. She has many contacts on the west side herself and has put together a very good team from what I have heard. Oh yes and she has already been campaigning unofficially since last fall even during the merger process.
Third, the former MP will not be running in this redistributed riding since his core support (the Filipino block voters) have been removed, due to redistribution, from the demographics. So basically this riding is without an incumbent this time around.
Forth, the person who will likely be running for the Liberal seat is a former city councilor. While this may be an advantage in some cases he is only known on the east side of the river. He was defeated as a councilor like two terms ago, for misrepresenting what he stood for. In fact 75% of his campaign team that helped him into office worked to take him out in the following election. He has not been heard from up to the last 4 months. He is chairing some committee that may open a large federal building project in Winnipeg. However this project will be far removed from the riding he will be running in and will have no more effect on the local economy then any other riding. I don’t see him as a star player for the libs, although right now I can’t think of anyone who would have a better chance running for them.
So to sum up, stronger Conservative association and pre-election organization, strong known candidate with successful past experience, friendly redistribution, no incumbent, and that versus a Lib candidate who has a questionable history in elected office all make me cast my bet for the Conservatives. Unless of course the CPC gaffs big time before writ day.
My experience comes from 10 years as an organizer for the Reform and CA, I was the first President of the riding CA association and helped bring the team to where it stood after the 2000 election. As well I did some regional organizing etc.
Does this bias my opinion? I don’t think so. My personal opinion has been soured by the direction of the party and I have not been involved since 2001 and in fact would consider voting Liberal if they had someone better running. Basically the way I see it we are back to the way it used to be. The CA is now the Progressive Conservative party without the progressive in the name. Those in the party who don’t agree can believe whatever their cognitive dissonance will have them believe. I’m out!
Hmm, I guess the tirade was not needed for you research, sorry.
Email: [hidden]
Former Conservative MLA Joy Smith will hold enough Conservative votes to keep Rey Pagtakhan from securing this for the Liberals, and to elect Lorene Mahoney for the NDP.
15/03/04 Me
Email: [hidden]
This will be one of the tightest three way races in the country.
Look for the Conservatives, with a strong candidate, to make the breakthrough in this riding along with another in Charleswood.
01/03/04 Patrick Webber
This will be the battle to what in Winnipeg, since it is the only seat that is really up for grabs. Liberal incumbent Rey Pagtakhan will be engaged in a struggle with the NDP, who took about 11,000 votes in the newly reconfigured riding in 2000. The increase in NDP support federally, and the popularity of the provincial NDP government, may just give the NDP what they need to knock Pagtakhan off. With the right candidate and jusy enough Liberal votes, the NDP could win this seat. Close race either way.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster