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Provencher
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:57 PM 5/24/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:05 PM 5/9/2004



Constituency Profile
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Candidates/candidats:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Peter Epp
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Janine Gibson
Conservatives/Conservateurs:
Vic Toews
N.D.P./N.P.D.:
Sarah Zaharia

Population 2001
populations
81,910
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs
54536

Incumbents/Les députés:
Churchill (4.3%)
Bev Desjarlais
Provencher (95.7%)
Vic Toews

2000 Result/Résultats:
Redistributed
19,515 51.50%
13,586 35.86%
2,473 6.53%
2,316 6.11%
OTHERS
0 0.00%

Churchill
(11/166 polls, 2345/45654 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
250
645
417
72
OTHER
0

Provencher
(173/196 polls, 52191/57918 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
13336
18870
1899
2401
OTHER
0



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23/05/04 The Hack
Email: threeoheightseats@hotmail.com
This was a smart switch by the webmasters. Vic Toews will win. He's a definate cabinet suggestion should the Conservatives upset the Libs, and he's got a strong profile throughout the community. I expect a large margain of victory.
23/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Liberal MP Telegdi mas been trying to make a point on Toews charge of over-spending his last provincial campaign...boldly trying to even parallel it to Adscam. Looking at teh facts, $4,000, based on whether it should have been passed to the central campign and then returned...seems trifling. Toes seemed somewhat upset by the charge, where I would have dismissed it...a la Chretien. In any event, I don't think it is a horse that will run far in Provencher, unless locals have a different view.
19/05/04 JF
Email: [hidden]
I live in the riding -- it will go Conservative. Vic Toews has been one of the most outspoken opponents of same-sex marriage and that issue alone would probably be enough to swing it his way. Throw in the gun registry and the sponsorship scandal and the Conservatives have got themselves an almost guaranteed riding.
08/05/04 Stevo
Email:
I can't imagine why this one is listed as too close to call. Vic Toews is one of the most effective MPs in the House of Commons and will win this riding handily, picking up quite a few former Liberal voters in the wake of Adscam. Conservatives to hold.
08/05/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
This riding is staying Conservative. The Liberals have no chance. Somebody said they had this riding from 1993-2000, that means nothing when this ridings history has had it more often voting Conservative, than Liberal. Also both times the Liberals won the seat in the 1990's was because of a divide right, not because the Liberals were the best choice. I am glad to say the Conservative party will see Vic Toews be re-elected to represrnt Provencher.
07/05/04 Drew Ostash
Email: drewostash1@hotmail.com
This riding will be another conservative slam dunk. Vic will easily win this riding with over 50% of the popular vote. Rural Manitoba is the backbone of the Conservative Party in Manitoba. If we lose this riding to the Liberals you will see the Conservatives lose seats like Brandon-Souris and Dauphin-Swan River, which I might add wont be happening. Its about time this seat was predicted Conservative.
01/05/04 BAQ
Email: [hidden]
I do not know why this one is a close call. I worked an election (provincially) in part of this seat, and I do not see how the Liberal can take this one. Sure they will do okay in some of the northern areas of the riding, but south of Ste. Anne they are going to get crushed. The MP got over 50% last time, its a western rural seat and the MP has a fairly high profile. Easy Conservative victory here.
01/05/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com

The conservative vote isn't going anywhere in this riding. This is the "Bible Belt" of Manitoba and the same-sex marrige issue alone would insure the re-election of the former Alliance candidate with a 5000+ vote margin of victory
24/04/04 DFL
Email: [hidden]
Epp has a real chance, and here's why:
- The boundaries have been redrawn, cutting out a chunk of Toews' support from 2000
- Epp has blue chip credentials as an international lawyer who practiced in New York, London and Washington D.C., i.e. he's not just cannon fodder for Toews' machine
- The PC executive voted unanimously against the Alliance/PC merger
- The riding was Liberal from 1993 to 2000
- The riding went PC for six elections until 1993 - and the candidate's name was (Jake) Epp.
19/04/04 Stev Lutz
Email: [hidden]
No doubt about this one. Toews is doing a solid job, and has been playing a major role in the public accounts committee, gaining him some good visibility. I really can't understand why this one would be in the Too Close column, but rest assured, whenever election day happens to be, Vic will be back.
16/04/04 John S
Email: [hidden]
This riding is the CPC to loose. The brain trust has it marked as "too close to call"? If this riding is in that boat, then Saint Boniface, Winnipeg south Center, and Winnipeg South should be "too close to call" as well. Now as of yet, I am not suggesting that those Winnipeg ridings will turn to be a upset, but the CPC has alot of support here, simmilar support that the ridings in Winnipeg have.
Ad Scam, and Bill C-250 have angered alot of voters in this area. The Liberals and NDP should see lower support than the last election.
14/04/04 HABSFAN
Email: [hidden]
No brainer. Toews takes this in a cakewalk. His visiblity as Justice critic, combined with the So-Con votes, carries this riding easily.
12/04/04 Willam L.
Email: [hidden]
There is a suprise waiting in the wings, especially for those who think Toews is running for an easy victory. Martin considers Epp an all star candidate, and will push hard for his election. Several cabinet ministers have already made support visits. Expect a Martin visit during the election. This effort, combined with the red tory vote, gives Epp the votes needed to potentially squeeze a victory.
01/04/04 J. Windsor
Email:
This used to be Jake Epp's seat, and now former provincial minister Vic Toews has had it for a term. Toews has been high profile on the justice file and is without doubt cabinet material. Toews keeps it with a 45% plurality at least. There isn't even any doubt.
31/03/04 Jacob
Email:
This has become Vic territory. Very religious and extremely conservative. Peter Epp is a good candidate for the Liberals, accomplished, energetic, good looking and youthful, but will that be enough?
I know that Bob Speller and Reg Alcock were out campaigning for Epp. Epp seems to be running as if he can win, and maybe he can. But I still predict Vic to win, though it might be closer than some people think.
24/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
George Etienne Cartier's old riding. In the 15 elections since 1957, the Conservatives won 12 of them were won by Conservatives. With a strong candidate here in the way of Mr.Towes the victory is all but assured.
19/03/04 The Hack
Email: threeoheightseats@hotmail.com
Vic Toews is safe. Harper as leader will play well here and the Liberal scandals aren't winning anyone over. Prior to the poll earthquake, this might have been up in the air, but today it's safely CPC. *If CPC fluke out a victory, watch for Vic to be in cabinet. Don't think the people of his riding don't know it.*
18/03/04 Ghoris
Email: [hidden]
There's no popular Liberal incumbent this time around. Vic Toews will coast to an easy re-election victory.
17/03/04 Jon F
Email: [hidden]
A substantial percentage of voters in this riding are from the deeply conservative communities in the Steinbach area and the Red River Valley - provincial PC candidates often take 3/4 of the vote in these areas. Toews will benefit from his party's social conservative appeal(much as Iftody was able to hold this riding pre-2000 for the Libs by playing up his social conservative credentials). This combined with Toews personal visibility/popularity and the Liberals recent woes, will result in the Conservatives winning big here.
16/03/04 RWA
Email:
Even if the Liberals got all of the old PC votes as Patrick claims they will, they would still fall short. Not being from around this area I don't know how much of Toews' support is support for the party and how much is for him as former provincial cabinet minister, but he should squeak through in this riding.
15/03/04 V.D.
Email: bench_breaker@hotmail.com
I disagree. Barring any disaster or total collapse in support, i can't see Toews, a former provincial cabinet minister, losing this rural seat....
01/03/04 Patrick Webber
Email:
The Alliance reached its' high point in 2000, and enough old PC votes should go Liberal here to force the Conservatives out. Narrow Liberal victory.


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