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Selkirk-Interlake
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale
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Update/Mise à jour: 2:11 PM 6/26/2004 
Prediction Changed La prévision a changé 2:16 PM 6/26/2004 |
Constituency Profile
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Candidates/candidats:
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Christian Héritage Chrétien: Anthony Barendregt | ||||||
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral: Bruce Benson | ||||||
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Conservatives/Conservateurs: James Bezan | ||||||
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Green Party/Parti Vert: Trevor Farley | ||||||
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N.D.P./N.P.D.: Duane Nicol | ||||||
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Incumbents/Les députés: | |||||||
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Churchill (1.6%) Bev Desjarlais | ||||||
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Provencher (0.4%) Vic Toews | ||||||
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Selkirk-Interlake (98.1%) Howard Hilstrom | ||||||
2000 Result/Résultats:
| Redistributed | ||
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17,684 | 43.59% |
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9,502 | 23.42% |
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8,263 | 20.37% |
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4,945 | 12.19% |
| 176 | 0.43% | |
Churchill (4/166 polls, 962/45654 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 101 | |
| 195 | |
| 249 | |
| 70 | |
| 0 | ||
Provencher (5/196 polls, 230/57918 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 44 | |
| 86 | |
| 13 | |
| 18 | |
| 0 | ||
Selkirk-Interlake (190/195 polls, 60450/61182 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 9357 | |
| 17403 | |
| 8001 | |
| 4857 | |
| 176 | ||
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24/06/04 | Email: | |
| As I have said in my Kildonan St. Paul thread, Conservatives are winning in rural Manitoba while the Liberals are ahead in Winnipeg (according to a poll for today's Winnipeg Free Press). I think Bruce Benson is the best candidate for Selkirk, but he won't win. The Conservative support is too strong this election to overcome. Put Selkirk in the Blue column! | |||
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21/06/04 | Andy Email: [hidden] | |
| I live in Selkirk and it is a sea of orange signs. I was undecided between Bezan and Nicol (anybody but the Corrupt Liberals) until I got a poorly produced Bezan piece of literature that was attacking the NDP. At the same time I received a glossy leaflet outline 8 or 10 reasons I should vote NDP, all pretty positive. I think Nicol is taking it to Bezan here in Selkirk although I haven't driven up the Interlake to be certain. I'm leaning NDP, and Nicol seems to be a energetic and smart so why not. I predict the NDP candidate will win, and he may even get my vote! | |||
| 21/06/04 | Brian F Email: [hidden] | ||
| Don't live in this riding but I've noticed driving down Highway 7 and 8, a lot of NDP signs on private property which makes me wonder if the NDP has a shot here. I would've thought Selkirk would be a stronghold so the seeming rural strength for the NDP surprises me. | |||
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25/05/04 | MrManitoba Email: [hidden] | |
| This is most definetly one to watch, each campaign is very organized and presents three relatively strong candidates, it's clear that Jack Layton won't play well throughout the rural dyanamic of this community, not only to mention James and Bruce (Being young) have definet real life experience and have the ability to empathize with young people and families and the under 40 crowd which has staggering eletoral turnout. Duane Nicol, may be young and ambitious unfortunatly never having truly worked a real job and has ran for everything except provincial politics shows that his true nature is to be a career politician or a "wannabe". The farmers don't want to beg to the liberals and the majority does not want to see more money thrown at social programs they are looking for real solutions and the Conservatives can offer it. Howard Hilstrom has worked hard in the community and James has the experience of the local pulse throughout and has knowledge of the Health Care system, International Trade and Finance...a pretty well rounded individual. It's going Conservative, but definetly one to watch on election night. | |||
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25/05/04 | J.E Email: [hidden] | |
| If the NDP were running a more experinced candiadate that they would be more of a facter is this riding. That said this should tip in the direction of the Conservatives quite easily, the Liberal Party in rural Manitoba is a pretty tough sell and the scandal did not help them at all, leading to Mr. Bezan going to Ottawa. | |||
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23/05/04 | The Hack Email: threeoheightseats@hotmail.com | |
| Anyone but a 25-year-old City Councillor who seems a little too much as a political "wannabe" and I would consider the NDP here. But Jack Layton won't sell in the rural parts of this riding. The riding has gone Liberal in the past but only when the momentum was on their side. This time the winds are blowing Tory and that means James Bezan should win. Harper plays well in this riding. | |||
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23/05/04 | Greg Email: [hidden] | |
| We must remember that this riding belonged to the Liberals before the gun lobby handed it to Howard Hilstrom. By now Health Care and Education as well as the specific needs of this constituency should have resurfaced as the real issues of concern for the people of this riding. Bruce Benson will win to give us a clear and pursuasive voice at the table of the government. | |||
| 19/05/04 | E. Andrew Washburn Email: [hidden] | ||
| Selkirk-Interlake is a toughy! The posters are right, this is a swing election, but unlike the previous posters, I do not know whether it is the NDP or the Conservatives who have the advantage here. The NDP has shown signigifigant growth, but the Conservatives are united. In 2000, when the NDP was dismal, the Reform Party won by a lot. 1997 was a close three way race. Actually, the NDP hasn't won here since the early 80's. But the 1997 election alone proves that this will be a close one to look out for. | |||
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12/05/04 | Drew Ostsah Email: drewostash1@hotmail.com | |
| The Conservatives have a strong candidate here. Plus we have to keep in mind this is rural Manitoba. There's plenty of farmers in this riding that remember the days of having to beg just to be heard by this Liberal government. Even thought this riding has gone NDP in the past I just can't see them being able to close the gap. It won't be a huge Conservative win, but rest assured they will pull this one off. | |||
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13/04/04 | Email: [hidden] | |
| With the new Ipsos-Reid poll it's clear that you may see a bandwagon effect in many ridings throughout the country. This one currently being a held riding my re-affirm many social conservatives and neo-conservatives to stay with the party and keep their support behind bezan before taking a total swing to the the left. Bezan has the people and the support and the knowledge of the area and with the recent polls this should give him the extra boost and extra drive to take this riding home. | |||
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09/04/04 | Dan Email: [hidden] | |
| Hilstrom did very well last election. He worked hard and his personal contacts he established as the sitting member paid off. His departure will result in a large decrease in the right of centre votes. The NDP should have chose Pawley. I expect a two way race between Benson for the liberal and Bezan for the conservatives. Paul Martin and Benson are both improvments from the 2000 election choices so I expect the liberals will win this one. | |||
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06/04/04 | wedothat Email: hoobie68@hotmail.com | |
| This one is a no brainer, although Duane may be young and energetic it is clear that he doesn't carry the experience or clout to hold the office of MP yet...thats not say that he will be unable to in the near future but I just don't think it's going to happen. He signed on as councillor and now things have changed and he wants a bigger paycheque or a better title? Personally serving one's residents is the first and foremost reason not the title or paycheck. James Bezan knows the issues, long time area resident, strong knowledge on ag issues and global marketing and trade make him the most obvious successor to Howard Hilstrom. | |||
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02/04/04 | Selkirk Resident Email: [hidden] | |
| As a resident from Selkirk I can tell you that The NDP candidate's only claim to fame was being elected to council. He isn't well versed on agriculture like the Conservative and Liberal candidates and is not much more than and Idealogue that wont prove to be too beneficial for our chances to take this seat back. This should be a two way race with the Liberals taking it back. I wish we (NDP) had a chance, but maybe next time. | |||
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01/04/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | |
| This riding is often a bell-weather for the NDP VS the Conservatives, depending on which party has the advantage. The Conservatives have the incumbent advantage, plus with a new united party, with momentum and hope, it should not be a major issue for the Conservatives to win. | |||
| 31/03/04 | Jacob Email: | ||
| Leans Conservative. Duane Nicol for the NDP is a joke. They could have won it with Pawley's son. Nicol is a young kid who lost to Reg Alcock last election by a massive amount. He runs for everything and anything. His candidacy makes this race out of play for the dippers. The Liberals nominated a major playing on the commercial fishing scene and an ardent environmentalist in Bruce Benson while the Conservative nominated a cattle man in Bezan. My prediction is that Benson will do well in Gimli and in the First Nations reserves making him a strong competitor, the day will go to the Conservatives. | |||
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26/03/04 | Ghoris Email: | |
| I have to give the Conservatives the edge for now. They've nominated a very strong candidate in James Bezan, former executive director of the Cattle Producers Association. My brother is a journalist in the riding and he says that agriculture issues top most voters' list of concerns, and there's still a lot of anger about the gun registry. Hilstrom piled up a pretty impressive majority in 2000 - I expect most of that support to remain with the Conservatives. The Liberals will probably be less of a factor than they have been historically - they only came close in 1997 because of incumbency. It will likely be a two-horse race with the NDP's Duane Nicol, who may be a sincere and committed individual, but will suffer because of his young age (25) and general lack of experience. A quick perusal of his background makes it clear he's been playing politics for all of his adult life and has never held a real job. Unless something dramatic happens, I'm predicting a Conservative hold. | |||
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25/03/04 | Mr.Manitoba Email: [hidden] | |
| I wouldn't consider Selkirk - Interlake a swing riding. The riding itself has been plagued with BSE, Drought only to name a few. The constituents are looking for someone who has a grasp of the issues in the riding and who aren't polarized by a specific region that they can call home. Each party has nominated strong candidates but the work that Howard Hilstrom did as the MP for over 8 years has been a strong indication of the appreciation and respect the residents of Selkirk - Interlake have for the Conservative MP's. I wouldn't say that the NDP is a popular candidate, I would say however that he is a young candidate and the 6,000 registered voters of Selkirk gave him an opportunity to be their councillor although I don't believe the majority of voters, young voters included believe that he long enough in the tooth to effectively represent their wants and needs on a federal level. Further to that, this candidate has only been an elected member of public office for a little over a year and now he has chosen to take a break and pursue a higher office leaving a council chair vacant...is this truly fair to the residents who chose to elect him and what has changed in the last year that possibly made him realize he couldn't or didn't want to do the job as councilor? What the area needs is consistency and experience the conservatives can deliver that moreso than the Liberals or the NDP. | |||
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16/03/04 | Thorfinn Email: [hidden] | |
| Selkirk-Interlake is something of a swing riding. With the NDP up nationally, a provincial government widely perceived as having done a good job, and a popular area councillor (Duane Nicol) carrying their standard, the New Democrats will come up the middle in a 3-way split. Expect it to be close, but in the orange column by the end of election night. | |||
| 01/03/04 | Patrick Webber Email: | ||
| This one is up in the air. While Howard Hilstrom won a significant victory for the Alliance in 2000, the fortunes of the new Conservative Party are not as great. This contest will likely mirror that of 1997, which was a tight three-way race between the Liberals, NDP, and Reform Party. Hilstrom isn't running again, so the Conservatives' fortunes will rest on the stature of their candidate. The NDP is running a popular Selkirk town council named Duane Nicol, and he has a shot at taking the seat. Apart from Kildonan-St. Paul, this will be a seat to watch in Manitoba on election night. | |||
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