Projet D'Élection Prévision
www.electionprediction.com
Winnipeg North
Winnipeg-Nord
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale
|
Update/Mise à jour: 9:45 AM 6/23/2004 
Prediction Changed La prévision a changé 2:14 PM 6/26/2004 |
Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription
Candidates/candidats:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
 |
Liberal Party/Parti libéral: Rey Pagtakhan | ||||||
 |
Communist: Darrell Rankin | ||||||
 |
Conservatives/Conservateurs: Kris Stevenson | ||||||
 |
Christian Héritage Chrétien: Eric Truijen | ||||||
|
N.D.P./N.P.D.: Judy Wasylycia-Leis | ||||||
 |
Green Party/Parti Vert: Alon Weinberg | ||||||
|
|||||||
Incumbents/Les députés: | |||||||
|
Winnipeg North Centre (72.0%) Judy Wasylycia-Leis | ||||||
|
Winnipeg North-St. Paul (28.0%) Hon. Rey Pagtakhan | ||||||
2000 Result/Résultats:
| Redistributed | ||
 |
11,668 | 46.63% |
 |
9,135 | 36.51% |
 |
2,291 | 9.16% |
 |
1,418 | 5.67% |
| 508 | 2.03% | |
Winnipeg North Centre (117/162 polls, 35629/48124 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 4997 | |
| 0 | |
| 9944 | |
| 1892 | |
| 363 | ||
Winnipeg North-St. Paul (38/161 polls, 13881/58671 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 4138 | |
| 1418 | |
| 1724 | |
| 399 | |
| 145 | ||
 |
| Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details |
| 23/06/04 | non partisan watcher Email: [hidden] | ||
| Jack Layton is skipping the 'Peg in the final week. This seat is safe for the NDP, if it wasn't Layton would be there. | |||
|
23/06/04 | MDF+ Email: [hidden] | |
| While I agree with Keith on the prediction, it should be noted that the CCF-NDP has lost this seat TWICE since Woodsworth first took it in the 1920s. The Tories defeated Stanley Knowles in 1958 and the Liberals took it in 1993. But as I noted earlier, those were both sweeps of huge proportions -- a phenomenon that certainly isn't going to happen this time. Judy has this all sewn up. | |||
|
22/06/04 | Leon Breton Email: [hidden] | |
| While admittedly being a contest between two solid organizations and strong candidates, the preconditions simply do not exist for a Liberal victory in Winnipeg North. To win, not only does Dr. Pagtakhan have to take an overwhelming majority of the vote in the Inkster and Maples components of the riding, he must also be competitive in areas where the Liberals have been historically weak (Point Douglas, Burrows, St. Johns, etc.). Pagtakhan, without strong appeal in these areas given the problems faced by the Liberal party in this election, is unlikely to meet these basic strategic aims. Wasylycia-Leis, on the other hand, seems to have retained her strength in the old parts of the riding, while gaining credibility elsewhere through her immigration advocacy, among other issues. It's not a question of quality or labours, but of possibility. Let's hope that Pagtakhan won't have to rely on Employment Insurance, a sad legacy of his party (and himself) in government. | |||
|
20/06/04 | Chris Email: christhomas@hotmail.com | |
| The guy who said that "the ndp's tax the rich plan is ticking alot of people off" has no idea what the riding of winnipeg north looks like. Some of the poorest people in winnipeg live in this area and they now who is looking out for them. I'll admit i'm an ndp supporter but i don't think you need to be an ndp supporter to know that this riding is will not go to the tory's. It's clearly a two horse race in this riding and the conservatives don't own either of the horses. I think at this point Judy is making a clear pull away as voters in this area are clearly ticked off at the liberals and know that the way to retire a liberal is to vote ndp, even in the wealthy area of the riding, the maples, which is not all that wealthy, have as many signs as the liberals, and the conservaties are virtually not even involved in that part of the game. What it comes down to is that people in this area know how to get rid of a liberal and they are going to do it by switching to the ndp or staying with an extremely popular ndp MP. I should also mention that dr. rey's support in the phillipino community is fairly split as the ndp's "once in a lifetime" immigration proposal is quite popular with that community and the larger immigrant community in winnipeg north. | |||
|
20/06/04 | keith Email: | |
| Anyone who thinks that the ndp will lose here is crazy! They have only lost this riding once in the last 90 years. This election will not be the secong with a much stronger national party | |||
|
15/06/04 | MDF+ Email: [hidden] | |
| The facts are pretty simple -- this seat has been held by the CCF - NDP from before the creation of the former. The rare occasions in which this seat has gone Liberal or Tory were both massive national sweeps. There is no massive national sweep going on. Ergo, QED, the NDP will win. | |||
|
12/06/04 | Mark R. Email: [hidden] | |
| Let's look at the facts. NDP has more than doubled in the polls - popular NDP incumbent = NDP victory on June 28. The Liberal candidate will be retiring at the request of the voters! | |||
|
12/06/04 | cm Email: [hidden] | |
| To the guy who said the Conservatives have a chance must have his head in the clouds. This is a two horse race, however, I give a slight edge to Pagtakhan. Although people are pissed off at the Liberals, I think people are even more scared of Steven Harper's Conservatives. Judy has done a great job and it would sadden me to see her go. But because of the strong Fillipino community, I also think that Pagtakhan has a slight edge. I think this riding may have to go for a recount, it'll be that close. | |||
|
06/06/04 | Rich Thurston Email: [hidden] | |
| I think Dr. Rey wins here somewhat comfortably for two reasons. 1. The riding's large Fillipino community will bring Pagtakhan a significant amount of votes. Ms. Waslylycia-Leis' Ukrainian heritage won't matter as much due to their population being spread throughout the city. 2. With the CPC having an outside (but still legitimate) shot at forming government, the weak NDP vote will throw their support towards Dr. Rey to try and prevent that from happening. | |||
|
06/06/04 | james Email: [hidden] | |
| I think the conservatives will have a slim shot here. I know everyone is on the ndp bandwagon, but I think a good chunk of the liberal votes could go blue. The ndp and liberals are killing in the sign war but the conservatives have a leader who is much better than martin and layton. The ndp tax the rich plan is ticking alot of people of and they are sick of the liberals. | |||
| 25/05/04 | J.E Email: [hidden] | ||
| This will be a tight race and this early in the campaign is too close to call. Dr. Rey at 70 years of age is in for the fight of his life and him and his team will not want his last election to be a loss. Judy has as high a profile as she can in the local and national media and will make this race very, very, close. The ability to identify voters and get them out on election day will be the biggest factor. | |||
|
25/05/04 | Rob Email: [hidden] | |
| While Dr. Rey is a well known MP, and has served in an able manner for many years, Winnipeg North will not go Liberal. History sides with the NDP here. Add in lower than expected Liberal numbers in recent national polls, and Judy W-L seems like an easy winner here. | |||
|
25/05/04 | DL Email: [hidden] | |
| Correction Ghoris. There HAS been change in NDP fortunes in Manitoba. In case you didn't know, the NDP popular vote in Manitoba in 2000 was 20%. Most polls with a Man/Sask. column show the NDP at about 30% in the two provinces. Since it is unlikely that NDP support in Saskatchewan is over 40%, it stands to reason that NDP support in Manitoba must be up substantially. I also reject this very simplistic notion that WASPS vote all over the map based on the best party and candidate and leader, but that "Ethnics" vote tribally en masse for any candidate who comes from their community. The NDP has run plenty of Black candidates in heavily black areas in Toronto and in Nova Scotia to no avail and the there is no evidence that Chinese Canadians vote en masse for a candiadte just because he or she is Chinese. Does anyone expect Judy W-L to scoop up every single Ukrainian vote in Winnipeg North? Of course not. | |||
| 24/05/04 | Ghoris Email: | ||
| As much as it pains me to do this, I have to agree with the administrators' 'Too Close to Call' rating. I think Judy WL is in serious trouble against Dr. Rey. Redistribution hurts her big time - her riding now includes heavily Liberal areas in Inkster (one of only two provincial Liberal seats) and The Maples where Rey cleaned up last time. She loses some of her best polls in the Seven Oaks area to Kildonan-St. Paul. One cannot underestimate the importance of ethnic politics in the riding, particularly the Filipino community. If Rey can effectively mobilize the Filipino community it will make things very uncomfortable for Judy. She got a lot of those Filipino votes last time when she was running against another non-Filipino candidate, now she has little chance of hanging on to them. Granted the NDP's national polling numbers have improved substantially but there has been little change in Manitoba. And in any event, this election will be a purely local affair, Judy vs. Rey - not Jack Layton vs. Paul Martin. Way too close to call at this point. | |||
|
23/05/04 | The Hack Email: threeoheightseats@hotmail.com | |
| This is somewhat interesting, as both are strong party candidates, but I'm giving the riding to Wasylycia-Leis, because the majority of the riding is her former riding, Dr. Rey doesn't seem as motivated as usual, and his philipino community isn't as dominating as he would like it to be, and the Liberals seem headed for a stumble. | |||
|
23/05/04 | Matthew Hammond Email: [hidden] | |
| Yes, Pagtakhan is in cabinet - this however is not even his riding. Comparatively, Judy has arguably been the NDP's best MP over the past several years and people will acknowledge this on June 28th. | |||
|
23/05/04 | David.C Email: | |
| Come on this is an NDP stronghold and it has been for around 90 years, even in the last election when NDP support was at it's lowest in almost 45 years they still won it. Hands down Judy Wasylycia-Leis will win this riding, her profile has been signifigantly raised, Rey Pakghtghan must have some sort of electoral death wish cause this riding is going NDP. | |||
|
19/05/04 | Political advisor Email: [hidden] | |
| I don't understand TCTC (too close too call) in this riding. NDP do a very good performance in Manitoba, with a NDP government. If W-Leis was elected at 8%... he will be elected with a NDP at 18-20%. | |||
|
13/05/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | |
| The Scandal gives the edge to the NDP here, as the incumbent MP (NDP MP) is on the scandal commitee, and she's showen on TV quite often. I think that is just the edge the NDP needs. | |||
|
01/05/04 | Matthew Hammond Email: [hidden] | |
| With the NDP standing at twice what they were four years ago this riding is certainly a safe bet for one of their most outspoken caucus members. | |||
|
28/04/04 | Steven Lloyd Email: zeker@yahoo.com | |
If the NDP stays at 15%+ in the polls then the NDP will not lose a seat that they have basicaly held since the inception of the party. | |||
|
24/04/04 | A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com | |
| Quixotic incumbent battle--I'm presuming the Liberals are aiming for the same dynamics that have favoured provincial Liberals over NDPers in Ontario lately, i.e. NDP a wasted vote, can't govern, etc. Except that, this being the West, they're *used* to, maybe even *proud* of, being in opposition. Besides, the way things are going, the federal Libs are looking as hapless as the Manitoba NDP did in '88--and at his age, Rey's begging to be put out of his electoral misery as surely as David Orlikow was in '88... | |||
|
12/04/04 | MD Email: [hidden] | |
| This is of course a mix of many ridings; it not only has parts of the riding once held by such strong NDP MP's as Woodsworth but also by Orlikow. Rey Pagtakhan beat Orlikow in 1988; he beat Judy W.L. in 1993. He had easy victories in 1993, 1997, and 2000. This time around he is in for the fight of his life, but it should be pointed out that he has faced strong, well known people in the past, and he has beaten them (Judy included). It won't be easy, but with his Filipino base and name recognition he should not be counted out. | |||
|
08/04/04 | MDF+ Email: | |
| This is the successor to the old Winnipeg North Centre seat, held by CCF founding leader J.S. Woodsworth from 1922 til his death in 1942(?) and then by CFF-NDPer Stanley Knowles from then until he retired in the 1980s, except for one upset in the Diefensweep of 1958. Cyril Keeper held it for one term and then lost it in the anti-Mulroney wsweep of 1993. In other words, for the past 82 years, the NDP have held this seat in all but two elections -- 1958 and 1993 -- and all but seven years. 75 of 82 is not a record to be sneezed at. Of course, anything is possible. But barring a Harpermania or an unprecedented recovery by a party going for its fourth term, I'd say there are no sweeps in the works. | |||
|
06/04/04 | Buhay Email: mojosan@yahoo.com | |
| Ugh. I used to live in Winnipeg with my fellow Filipinos and Rey was nothing more than a figure head type. We were happy to have a Filipino MP but really, he did little to make Winnipeg a better place. The NDP will probably take this seat. Judy has terrible politics but is a smart politician. She's already been campaigning with a Filipino MLA from her party. Rey's looking tired, ready to retire and doesn't look like he has the energy to fight a new campaign. I guess I can always hope this riding goes Tory blue but it will probably orange on election night. | |||
|
05/04/04 | trudo Email: | |
| I find it hard to believe this site says so few seats are predicted NDP victories. This riding had a 10 point led over the Liberals in the last election, since then the Liberals have lost support and the NDP gainned. Winnipeg North is about as left-wing of a riding you can find. Weren't they Communist way back? I wouldn't call this riding (along with Winnipeg Centre) too close to call. | |||
|
05/04/04 | dean Email: deansherratt@rogers.com | |
| I think that Wasylycia-Leis will take this seat. I am frankly startled that Pagtakhan moved out of most of his riding to contest Winnipeg North as presently drawn. Wasylycia-Leis will have picked up some traction by being an NDP member of the Public Accounts Committee examining and unraveling Adscam. Pagtakhan has not been a strong cabinet minister for Manitoba...eclipsed by Axworthy and now by Adcock. I think Wasylycia-Leis will win by, oh, 4,200 votes. | |||
| 01/04/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | ||
| This will be a close race either way. Pagtakhan's decision to run a riding that is clearly not his old one may hurt him in the end, I give the edge here to Wasylycia-Leis. | |||
|
31/03/04 | DL Email: [hidden] | |
| It is ludicrous to call this seat anything but NDP. If Judy W-L was able to win easily in 2000 when the national NDP campaign and leader were a disaster then she will win it hands down with NDP support set to double this time. BTW: of the 14,000 or so Filipinos in the riding my question is how many of them are over 18, how many of them are Canadian citizens and how many of them will automatically vote for Paghtakhan just because he is one of them. I believe Wasylicia-Leis is a Ukrainian name and there are probably far more Ukrainians with the right to vote. | |||
|
30/03/04 | Jacob Email: [hidden] | |
| According to the census, (http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census01/products/standard/fedprofile/RetrieveTable.cfm?R=FED03&G=46012) Winnipeg North has 14,070 Filipino residents. Thats massive. I bet many of them voted for Judy last time but will vote for Rey this time, maybe enough to win the election.
| |||
|
24/03/04 | Tim Klodt Email: timmy_otoole17@hotmail.com | |
| Maybe Rey Pagtakhan's decision to follow his powerbase into Winnipeg North was a shrewd political move... and then again maybe it was just trying to make the best out of a pretty daunting situation. Considering Judy W.L. is only an opposition MP in a small fourth-party caucus, I think she's been able to build a fairly respectable level of visibility. Mr. Pagtakhan, on the other hand, despite having been a cabinet minister for a number of years, had gotten most of his visibility from having been the victim of a racial slur from an Alliance MP. Let's be clear - he's hardly been a high performing minister. Going up against no-name Alliance candidates in the city of Winnipeg is one thing, but going up against a popular New Democratic incumbent in quite another. Pagtakhan is going down. I'm sure he'll put of a good fight though. | |||
|
24/03/04 | Brad Smith Email: bmrsmith@hotmail.com | |
| The NDP will lose this seat around the same time hell freezes over. Even with redistribution, Judy will be re-elected, albeit she'll actually have somewhat of a race this time. The biggest question is, will the Conservatives get more votes than Communists? | |||
| 20/03/04 | MD Email: [hidden] | ||
| Dr. Rey is well liked in Winnipeg. With the Filipino vote and his name recognition he will put on a good fight against the NDP. Dr.’s campaigns are well oiled machines, and although the NDP might have a bit of an edge I would not count Dr. Rey out of this one yet. | |||
|
20/03/04 | Mike D Email: [hidden] | |
| Oops, sorry for the error. Again, correct me if I'm wrong but Rey Pagtakhan's new portfolio is a demotion from what he had before, Veterans Affairs. Less glory, certainly. | |||
|
19/03/04 | EP Email: [hidden] | |
| Wasylycia-Leis was so "popular" in 2000 because she did not have a CA opponent and the Western protest vote need a place to park their vote. To suggest this is a sure-win for the NDP is more than a bit persumptous. While I find Wasylycia-Leis quite an outstanding MP for the NDP, Pagtakhan's is also a very decent public servant with cabinet profile working for him. To close to call, but I give Pagtakhan the edge. | |||
|
19/03/04 | Mike D Email: [hidden] | |
| Of all the predictions so far, this one is the furthest off. The Liberal is no longer in cabinet, he is a Chretienite and a hasbeen - no one in his party is going to come to his rescue. The NDP is showing no signs of weakness in Manitoba, and is actually helped by a popular NDP provincial government. Super-solid traditional NDP turf, an NDP veteran MP will be returned to Parliament with little effort needed.
Editor's Note: Dr. Pagtakhan is still a cabinet minister as of today (19 March 2004), serving as Minister of Western Economic Diversification | |||
|
19/03/04 | Greg K Email: [hidden] | |
| While this will most certainly be a high profile riding to watch, there can be little debate as to its outcome. A historically well-respected and savvy politician, Judy will defeat Rey (suffering with his colleagues from the Liberal's decline in support) with a comfortable margin. | |||
|
18/03/04 | Jesse Hoffman Email: [hidden] | |
| How could you say this is too close to call??? Judy is extreamly popular in Northern Winnepeg, with rising NDP fortunes, it is clear this is one of the safest seats in Canada. | |||
|
18/03/04 | Bear and Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com | |
| We believe the poster on the Ontario page of this website, Mike Wakefield, said it best when he said, "Dead Liberal Walking" (could this be #11?). Rey Pagtakhan is up against Judy Wasylyclia-Leis and she won handidly in 2000. Unless the NDP become drastically less popular and the Liberals are suddely forgiven for all their current sins, then there will be another current cabinet minister out of a job (and a seat). | |||
| 17/03/04 | Jacob Email: [hidden] | ||
| This one is way too close to call- a rematch of the 1993 election. Judy W.L is a popular and high profile incumbant. Rey Pagtakhan is a high popular and high profile incumbant. This will be a battle of the titans (despite both of their lack of height). Rey needs a strong showing in the Filipino and the Indo Canadian communities in the Maples and in Tyndall park in order to win - which is why we are seeing Pagtakhan talk alot about making the foreign professional credentials easier. Judy needs to expand her base. One to watch on E-Day! | |||
|
01/03/04 | Patrick Webber Email: | |
| This is the safest NDP seat in Canada. Judy W-L won her old riding in 2000 with almost 60% of the vote. With the New Democrats polling at least twice the level of popular support today as in 2000, this seat will go NDP with well over 50% of the vote. | |||
Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004
© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster