Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
11:41 AM 6/9/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:48 PM 14/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Allyce Herle
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Mary Nelson
Lorne Nystrom
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Deanna Robilliard
Andrew Scheer
Lorne Widger

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Regina-Qu'Appelle (100.0%)
Hon. Lorne Nystrom

2000 Result/Résultats:
11,613 41.33%
11,459 40.79%
5,024 17.88%
0 0.00%
0 0.00%

(159/159 polls, 46547/46547 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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08/06/04 BAQ
Email: [hidden]
With the Liberals crashing in the polls everywhere, but some how they will be picking up nearly every seat in Saskatchewan (by Burton's account). The Liberals will not pick up a seat in SK and thus Herle will not be elected in Qu'appelle. In fact she will place thrid as the Liberal nearly always does in this area. In 2000, Nystrom won with a horrible national campaign, and a NDP provincial government that was at it's low point. Now the NDP are way up in the polls and the provincial government that has seen a bit of a recovery. Nystrom will win.
05/06/04 full name
Email: [hidden]
This is as close to a slam dunk as any riding in Saskatchewan. Lorne has built up credibility in the riding. He was born and raised in the riding, and continues to live in the riding. Andrew Scheer is a parachute candidate from Ottawa, who until recently was Larry "homosexuality should be illegal" Spencer's assistant in Ottawa. Scheer has no roots in Regina, as evidenced by his recent failed run for a position on the Ottawa school board.
Not to mention anecdotally Lorne has over 500 signs in urban Regina alone and I have only spotted about a dozen or so Scheer signs.
03/06/04 Gregor Burton
Email: gregorburton@hotmail.com
The individual who says the Conservatives have a good candidate needs to lay off the mushrooms! Their candidate is an early-twenty-something former aide to Larry Spencer. He is as Green as they come, and he WILL not be a factor in this race. This race is between Allyce Herle, and Lorne Nystrom. A well respected U of R Prof, and NDP'er has recently predicted that Allyce Herle WILL win this riding. The Conservatives should have perhaps taken more time when selecting a candidate here, and researched this riding a little more carefully.
25/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
NDP numbers are up in Saskatchewan. The NDP incumbants are fairly safe with news like that. Don't get me wrong, this won't be a cake-walk, the Conservatives have a good candidate and will put up a good fight, but this riding is naturally NDP.
25/05/04 JCM
Email: [hidden]
Lorne Nystrom is a fine MP. He is well versed on a variety of timely issues, especially finance.
However, I'm afraid re-election won't be easy for Lorne, not this time.
It has nothing to do with his record, or anything abourt Lorne himself.
The results in this constituency will be heavily influenced by the national trend. The national Liberal fortunes will play the biggest role in determining Lorne's political future after June 28th.
The reason for this, is because rural portions of the constituency are backing a different rider in 2004 than they did in 2000.
How much of a swing there is to the Liberals from the Conservatives will seal Lorne's fate, one way or another.
25/05/04 MDF+
Email: [hidden]
I was in Fort Qu'Appelle on Monday, sitting in the restaurant at the Country Squire, when my table was approached by a very awkward young man who tried to determine if we lived at the Fort. Turned out the awkward young man was none other than the Conservative candidate for Regina Qu'Appelle.
I've known a lot of politicians in my time, and never have I seen anyone so inept in approaching potential voters. I just hope the Cons send this guy out on lots of doorsteps. It'll be like the SaskParty provincial candidate in Wascana. Everywhere he went, it generated requests for NDP signs.
25/05/04 Mike Bailey
Email: [hidden]
Recent polling puts this riding in the conservative column. With the tories pulling ahead of Layton's brand of urban socialism on the praries. Even on the prairies Layton's poll numbers are inflated by his support in Winnipeg. Nystrom is a formidable incumbent to be sure, but he did lose in 1993 to an upstart new party in the riding he had represented for 25 years. With the previous CA candidate barely campaigning and still only losing by 170 votes, Scheer, who is working hard, should be able to beat Nystrom. CTV has put this riding as one of 20 to watch on election night. Election prediction should at least move it to too close to call.
25/05/04 Pete
Email: [hidden]
Though the last election result was very close, this is one of the ridings where the vote split did not happen. Thus is there a chance for the Conservative vbote to grow based on that. NO. There is also a chance that some soft conservative vbote which was turned off by Mr. Chretien left tendencies will move back to the Liber4als under Mr. Martin.
That will also benefit the NDP incumbent.
He has very hihg recognition in the riding and the core of his vote is much more solid than the others which will help him on an election day that is really the start of summer.
Nystrom by 1500 votes.
19/05/04 Darryl Whitehead
Andrew Scheer is a great up and coming politician who has an incredibly well honed and articulate political opinion. Nystrom only limped to victory in the last election and now has to face a candidate that is by far his intellectual superior. The conservatives will carry this riding with Scheer handing Nystrom his political curtain call.
10/05/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Good Lord! Two more people calling Lorne down? Most unusual... look here now, it's not 2000 again and it's certainly not 1993 again...
Nystrom is good at constituancy work, is a high profile M.P, is moderate and his riding is traditional Dipper territory both Federally and Provincially... and the NDP is in no danger of collapse.
To claim that the Reformatories will win because they nominated early verges on insane... can you remember 2000? The "reflected glory" of the Sask Party and the deeply unpopular coalition provincial Government (and whatever budget-related problems the current NDP government has, it's nothing on the problems the coalition had in 2000) sunk the Federal Dippers in Saskatchewan... Nystrom and Proctor were only saved by a late "just in time" swing...
I realise that partisan hacks from all parties like to delude themselves into thinking they can and indeed will, win every darn seat they want to... but pleeeease be realistic...
08/05/04 R.D.B
Email: [hidden]
Conservative Party Hands down for sure.
In the last election the CA was not organized in the riding. Their team never numbered more than 10 people. The Candidate wasn't nominated until the last minute. They only spent approximately $35,000 compared to $40,000 for the Liberals and $56,000 for Nystrom. And Nystrom still only won by approximately 165 votes.
This time around the Conservatives already have a candidate nominated, and my sources tell me that they have a strong team in place, and are working hard a fundraising. Furthermore, Nystrom is now tied to Jack Layton's extremist views on issues such as gun control and same sex marriage. Furthermore, Layton will have no legs out west. The Liberal smear campaign against him will make sure of that.
06/05/04 Gregory P. Burton
Email: [hidden]
I believe the result in Regina/Qu'Appelle will be very similar to 1993, where Simon DeYoung won by an extremely slim margin. However, this time, I believe that the Liberal Party has provided a candidate who will do what the 1993 Candidate did not - provide a strong showing on Reserves. The 1993 race was close, with a low on-reserve Aboriginal turnout. However, I believe that this time, the Aboriginal people of this riding have realized that they hold the balance of power here. Allyce Herle has strong ties on many reserves, AND in the inner- city of Regina. I believe she is exactly the individual needed to end the build-up of Nystrom's Multi-Million Dollar pension.
Nystrom has been an MP for 30 years, and has spent much of that time arguing the benefits of Proportional Representation. While I am not willing to weigh in on that issue at this time, I do feel that Mr. Nystrom has been recalictrant in his representation of the people of this Riding, due to his steadfast, and singular interest in this issue. Mr. Nystrom's flip- flop on Gun Control, and other issues, has created a dissatisfaction with his performance by many people living here, and who are affected by other pertanent issues. This election will show Mr. Nystrom the degree of disapproval that exists for his performance.
I would not worry about the Conservatives in this Riding, as from what I understand, they are running a young Candidate, who was an aide to disgraced former Alliance MP, Larry Spencer.
04/05/04 JRFD
Email: [hidden]
Huh? Are you saying the people of Regina are pro-Child Porn? If Lorne is out of step with people here that must be what you mean because there's no way Lorne supports it.
If this is the messaging Lorne's opponents are using this will be an even easier win than I thought.
Lorne is unbeatable here for three reasons:
1. Lorne is a great high profile candidate with a firm understand of what issues are important to his constituents
2. This is NDP heartland
3. The NDP is high in the polls
08/04/04 MDF+
What is this BS from Tim about Lorne's position on child pornography? There isn't a single MP of any party is the House who is not adamantly opposed to child pornography, and this sort of slanderous insinuation from a desperate Conservative is precisely the reason that their pathetic party will go nowhere.
Fact of the matter is, in an election when the NDP had their lowest vote nationally and in Saskatchewan in fifty years, Lorne Nystrom managed to hold this seat. If can hold it then, he'll hold it now.
And pathetic slandermonkeys like Tim should crawl back into the sewer where they belong.
31/03/04 DL
The only people who care enough about same sex marriage are a handful of fundamentalist religious freaks who were never going to vote NDP in a million years anyways. Jack layton seems to be doing very well in the west, every poll shows that the biggest gains the NDP is making is in Manitoba/Saskatchewan and in BC. Back in 1988, the NDP took 10 seats in Saskatchewan when led by a Toronto area ex-professor of political theory named Ed Broadbent. When people in ridings like Regina Qu'Appelle are choosing between Jack layton of Toronto and Paul "Canada Steamship Lines" Martin of Montreal and Toronto born and raised Stephen Harper the anti-populist stuffed shirt neo-con with no common touch whatsoever - Layton and the NDP will win hands down.
29/03/04 Tim
Email: [hidden]
This seat is going to go to the Conservatives. Lorne has been in Parliament for over 30 years. His stand on Same-Sex marriage and child pornography are out of whack with the people in this riding. Jack Layton is a Toronto socialist and westerners do not like the brand of NDP he is selling.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
According to the recent leadership race, Nystrom is the second most popular MP in the NDP's Caucus. I expect him to ride back to victory on a wave of ease.
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
NDP incumbent Lorne Nystrom won a narrow victory in 2000, but he'll be able to widen that margin of victory this time around. His win in this election will look more like his victory in 1997 in terms of vote distribution.
27/02/04 BAQ
NDP hold. The NDP carried this seat through both their elctoral disasters 1993 and 2000. With the bump the NDP has seen in the polls recently, this seat is in the bag. Nystrom will return to the Commons.

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