Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:28 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
10:35 PM 6/25/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Chris Axworthy
Green Party/Parti Vert:
David Greenfield
Priscilla Settee
Maurice Vellacott

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Saskatoon-Wanuskewin (100.0%)
Maurice Vellacott

2000 Result/Résultats:
16,497 52.86%
7,445 23.85%
5,279 16.91%
1,608 5.15%
381 1.22%

(155/167 polls, 51078/53733 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Joey Kay
Email: [hidden]
I suspect Velacott has angered enough urban voters in this riding over his lack of substance to constitute a drop in support. The only media coverage he receives in this city is for his far-out social policies.
Settee appears to be a great candidate, but from people I know in this riding, I don't think she's been resonating with the voters. I think many know she just can't win this one.
Axworthy is well-known, but we've seen how voters in Saskatchewan like turncoats (remember Osika and Mellenchuk) - he's come off as opportunistic.
However (with no statistical data whatsoever), I think it's safe to bet that many NDP supporters know Settee has little chance and will hold their nose and vote for Axworthy. Question is - will it be enough to bump Velacott? Any politician should be worried about running against Axworthy.
Narrow Liberal surprise COULD be in store here...
20/06/04 Full name
Email: caw479@mail.usask.ca
I've lived in this riding my whole life and I do not see it changing from Conservative any time soon. I agree that this might be a little closer than it has been recently, but Vellacott still has major support in the rural areas, especially where I live. You only need to drive around Martensville, Osler, Warman, etc to see where people are placing their votes. Blue "Re-elect" Vellacott signs are everywhere. His strong, "on-the-side-of-the-Church" views will help him win votes in the small towns. Settee with the NDP and Axworthy with the Liberals will be fighting for the votes of those who don't want Vellacott, but unfortunately people will be split among the two. I'm already planning on hanging a rainbow flag on my yard in defiance to Vellacott's win.
15/06/04 SJ
Email: [hidden]
One question: *what* "soft conservative vote"? As a proud Adscam Tory (the date on my membership card is February 11, 2004), I'm dubious about predictions that depend on unmotivated Tories swinging somewhere. And Ipsos-Reid agrees, finding that decided Conservative voters are the most likely to cast a ballot on June 28th. Do the math: even if Axworthy kept all the Liberal support from 2000 (not gonna happen) and took every single vote from Priscilla Settee (whom he apparently believes is his real competition, according to today's papers), he can't beat the Alliance vote from 2000. And I don't believe that Alliance vote is "soft conservative," especially when it's smelling victory for the first time in more than a decade. Sure, Axworthy could win if he took all the Liberal vote, all the NDP vote, and all the PC vote from 2000 -- and I could fly if I lost 100 pounds and sprouted wings on my backside./TD>
12/06/04 J Soanes
Email: jsoanes@sasktel.net
If the Liberals win any riding this will be it. I didn't want to say say any party will be shut out in Saskatoon because I do think this city is very competitive. Axworthy has a high profile and Saskatchewan has actually been one of the most forgiving provinces when it comes to the sponsorship issue (according to any poll I've seen). As with any riding in Saskatoon the Conservatives will be strong and have a good shot. The NDP will fare better than many people believe. The potential exists for the vote in areas like Silverwood to be split between the Liberals and Conservatives. If the NDP really cleans up in areas like Dundonald, west of Idylwyld, and around the City Hospital they could win. We will see!
12/06/04 Robinwood
Email: drwood@canada.com
This one is a two horse race that might have a photo-finish. Axworthy is a worthy competitor and probably would have stole this seat from Vellacott if the Liberals had not run into so much trouble. This is a naturally conservative riding with a large rural constituency where Vellacott has much support. Vote splitting on the left and recent stumbles in the Liberal campaign will hurt Axworthy and this seat will go Conservative.
11/06/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Given the Liberal charge on moral issues (abortion/same sex marriage), I think this will put this riding out of the reach of the Liberal Party. Here there are a lot of Social Conservatives and this voting group will not be amused at being told that their views are abhorant. Maurice Vellacott will be supremely well placed to gain support from this issue and be re-elected.
08/06/04 Kip Luce
Email: kipluce@hotmail.com
This is a tough one. We have a Conservative incumbant and no riding redistribution in this riding. If he is not going to win again, the question is who will lure away the small c conservative vote? Normally, I would say the Liberals shouldn't get their hopes up in Saskatoon, but Chris Axworthy is a star candidate. Not only will soft NDP voters vote for him, but the soft conservative vote will be attracted to Chris too. I think the general perception is Axworthy did a good job as an oposition MP, and his reward to himself will be a chance to see how well he can do as a member of the party most likely to form government. Think of Chris as a bridge in the event of a Liberal minority in a partnership with the NDP.
05/06/04 Anonymous
Email: [hidden]
This one is too close to call. However, Vellacott's reputation in Saskatoon as a poor MP won't help. But, the rural part of this riding is bible belt country, which works in his favour.
Axworthy is popular and held the seat before as a New Democrat, and has received endorsements from the provincial Sask. Party MLA for the area, Ted Merriman. Local business people and business groups appreciate Axworthy, too.
Too close to call.
01/06/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
So the Liberals are going to go from 16% from the last election to about 37% to take the riding, even though the Liberals are loosing support in recent polls to the Conservative party. This riding is staying Conservative.
25/05/04 Chuck
Email: [hidden]
In this election the sure thin does not seem to exist. However the battle grounds of Wanuskewin seem to look promising for Axworthy and his team. Never write off a seasoned professional. I predict that Axworthy will win this riding as he has more name recognition than even the incumbent.
25/05/04 JCM
If you had asked me one month ago if this constituency would send Chris Axworthy back to the House of Commons in this election as a Liberal, I would have said you are crazy.
But I predict we will see a large enough shift toward Axworthy in both the urban and rural portions of this constituency to give him a narrow win.
Axworthy won a tight three way race in this same constituency back in 1993, when it was called Saskatoon-Clark's Crossing. Axworthy was still a New Democrat then, and faced tough challenges from Reform and Liberal candidates.
25/05/04 The other CC
Email: [hidden]
Wake up CC... while Axworthy may have changed stripes he is still just as committed to his hallmark principles of social justice, aboriginal affairs, and western economic amelioration. Goodale's quick move on equalization is an early indication that Martin's Liberals are committed to helping a province that desperately needs it. Can you blame Axworthy for wanting to help Goodale put SK on the political map?
A vote for Vellacott is a vote for four more years of marginal representation, a lost voice in Ottawa, and the loss of potential that Axworthy would bring. It's better to a part of government than constantly on the margins.
With a young and energetic campaign team and an unprecedented Liberal momentum in Saskatoon, Ax will put an end to Vellacott's pension-clocking in Ottawa.
23/05/04 LT
Email: [hidden]
This race is tight but I predict a narrow Liberal victory. Chris Axworthy has much higher name recognition than the incumbent. He is well regarded by people of all political stripes. The incumbent's performance has disappointed a lot of people in the riding, including myself, a former supporter. This disappointment combined with Paul Martin's fiscal record will move enough rural vote to push Axworthy over the top.
19/05/04 CC
Email: [hidden]
This is a definite Conservative win. Maurice has become a very high profile MP in the Saskatoon area and I'm afraid Chris Axworthy flip flops between Liberal/NDP Federal/Provincial won't result the win. Maurice has represented the riding very well and people in the riding should be proud to have such an MP in their riding.
13/05/04 Kevin
Email: [hidden]
This is a very tough riding to call. Axworthy is a seasoned election time veteran with a name that is known throughout the riding and spans both federal and provincial levels of government. However, Vellacott is firmly sitting in the incumbent seat with a very strong base of support in the towns surrounding Saskatoon. Above all else though, I think a lot of people in both the RMs and Saskatoon are looking for a change in their MP - Maurice who? Axworthy is a solid candidate with a history of building bridges across opposing viewpoints and really listening to his constituents. It will certainly be an uphill battle for him, but with a solid election team and with his dedication to reaching out to the voters, Axworthy's going to come out on top.
11/05/04 Dave
Email: [hidden]
With the exception of the provincial NDP leadership race, Axworthy has never lost an election in over 15 years in politics.
Why would a seasoned veteran then decide to run in a riding which some here are saying is a lost cause? There MUST be some type of internal polling or something to give him a reason to run. I am sure he doseen't plan on ending his political career with a defeat.
Being a former constituent of his when he was the MP for Clark's-Crossing, I can tell you from first-hand experiance that he is a force on the doorstep (and quite charming). If he works hard, he will win.
05/05/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com

Although I don't think that this is a CPC lock-up, the fact is that the other two parties would have to do a lot of work to beat a 9000+ margin (plus redistibution that helps that conservatives).
Unless the NDP vote collapses and gos Liberal or vice-verca I think that this seat will remain conservative but with a reduced margin.
27/04/04 Ross
Email: [hidden]
This riding is headed Conservative.
Maurice might not have been the best constituency guy in the House and at times has been fairly portrayed as a single-issue social conservative candidate, but the fact of the matter is that that the majority of the people of Saskatoon-Wanaskewin are similarly ideologically-minded and see Vellacott as a champion of their ideal Canada.
Axworthy will bring on a fair charge, but this guy is laden with baggage. To get over the turncoat aspect is one challenge, but the second is that the guy looks like an opportunist, jumping from federal to provincial politics, then back to federal (for a different party) when he believed that the poltical winds were in his party. We don't like that here in the West.
His only chance of salvation was a strong pro-West Liberal party, which has now been blemished for obvious reasons, alongside a weak NDP candidate. Ms. Settee, for the NDP, will not be a weak candidate, having a very strong academic background, community recognition, and will steal the Aboriginal vote from Axworthy.
Dream on Liberals, you haven't had this riding in forty years, and won't for forty more.
21/04/04 J.C.
Email: [hidden]
The one thing that we forget about Axworthy is that he already has beaten a "sure thing" candidate in former Justice Minister, Ray Hnatyshyn in 1988.
The thing about Vellacott is that in his latest mailer he was affirming his Reform roots. His lack of any real accomplishments in his eight years seems to be glaring and I am not sure how big of an issue gay marriage and abortion will be in this riding.
That being said, Axworthy has a huge fight on his hands and it unlikely that the Liberal party will invest much money in Saskatchewan but it is hard to bet against a proven winner.
19/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Chris Axworthy running as a Liberal will increase their support due to his personal popularity but he most certainly will not win. The NDp and Liberals will be fighting over the left of center votes while the Conservatives will get all the right of center votes (remember Axworthy was once an NDPer and we're sure he's going to campaign on the left). Conservative win but due to renewed NDP support they'll win with a smaller majority.
19/04/04 GM
Email: [hidden]
Why is this riding too close to call??? Maurice Vellacott got over 50% of the vote last election, and he'll easily do it again.
Obviously some Liberal has no idea what's going on in this part of the country if they think they can even come close here!!
19/04/04 Ryan
Email: [hidden]
Though it will be a tough fight, I think the smart money is on Axworthy.
With Maddin losing the NDP nomination, the low-profile Settee will likely have trouble holding onto even the core NDP vote in the riding. This is the weakest NDP riding in Saskatoon, and the party will not put any serious resources into it. Axworthy's NDP heritage should help him to attract moderate NDPers.
Vellacott has little to show for 2 terms in Ottawa. Word on the street is that even his rural base is getting fed up with his "single-issue" politics and his lack of involvement in the local community.
With Saskatoon lacking any representation in government for many years, if the Liberals are poised to win again the voters will be looking for someone to represent this part of the province in the governing caucus. Axworthy may just be the right candidate at the right time.
It will, in the end, depend on how hard he works and how good of a team he is able to put together.
10/04/04 Little "c"
Email: [hidden]
I cannot see, thankfully,the Liberals or the NDP having any hope whatsoever in this riding.The provincial NDP's arrogance and that of the formet and current Liberal party only assists Vellacott.
How many MP's walk through their constituency as many times as he does, even in a non-election year? Vellacott is quite personable and will continue to represent this riding. Settee may hope for the Aboriginal vote, but it won't be enough to carry her. Axworthy's past as Justice Minister in Saskatchewan speaks for itself.
03/04/04 BAQ
Email: [hidden]
This is the safest Urban-rural seat in SK for the Conservatives. Whil both the Liberal and NDP nominations may have made a splash, I do not think it will make a differance. I do not see the Liberal making any inroad in SK. The NDP cannot win this seat as it includes some of the worest NDP areas of Saskatoon and the Rostern area which has been horrible for the NDP even in good years. Conservatives should win this in a walk.
03/04/04 Garth Brasseur
Email: [hidden]
I believe this to be the Saskatoon riding that is most likely to return a Conservative to the House of Commons in the next federal election. I believe that Axworthy will have a relatively strong showing and that the anti-Conservative vote will be equally split between the Liberals and the NDP. I think that there are more Social Conservatives [read Mennonites] as opposed to Progressive Conservatives in the rural part of the constituency (in comparison to the other Saskatoon ridings) so that there are less likely to be votes lost to the more right of centre "Martin" Liberals (which I expect to happen in Blackstrap and Saskatoon-Humboldt).
28/03/04 Steve L.
Email: [hidden]
Vellacot will get out the church vote and all will be well for the CP. If either the NDP or the Libs were to run a terrible campaign, this one might be a bit tight, but with reasonably strong candidates for both, this one will slide Vellacot back in.
24/03/04 Ghoris
While I can understand the optimism of some NDP supporters here, and while I have no doubt that the NDP vote in this seat will improve substantially over 2000, this is probably the least winnable of the Saskatoon seats for the NDP. It was the only Saskatoon seat where the CA received more than 50% of the vote, and the SP did fairly well in this part of Saskatoon in the election - winning the Saskatoon Northwest seat and all of the rural ridings that make up Wanuskewin. Although the NDP may put up a gallant effort here, the vote split with Liberal candidate Axworthy will ensure Vellacott's re-election. NDPers in Wanuskewin might be better advised to work for Nettie Wiebe or Dennis Gruending on E-day.
19/03/04 Thorfinn
Email: [hidden]
A three-way race here, but the NDP or the Conservatives. Chris Axworthy will finish 3rd here - this is not his hometurf (that's S-R-B) and Saskatchewan people, like most westerners, dislike turncoats of any stripe. The real question is will he hurt the NDP or Conservatives more, but I'm betting that it the NDP will win this one narrowly. This prediction could change if the CPC # in Sask start to go up again significantly.
18/03/04 Jesse Hoffman
Email: [hidden]
Correction on my previous prediction. I was getting this riding confused with Saskatoon-Humboldt. My revised prediction is that is to close to call at the moment. It could go to the CPC or the NDP, or even the Liberals. Definite three way race here.
17/03/04 Patrick Webber
Email: [hidden]
This will be the only real three-way race in Saskatchewan. The Conservatives hold the riding now, and will have strength to build upon. The NDP will have the resurgence in its' popularity in an area that has always had a base of NDP support. The Liberals will be running former NDP MP and provincial NDP cabinet minister Chris Axworthy. It is not clear whether Axworthy will reap the scorn of local New Democrats for switching sides or whether those voters will be attracted to his name more than his party label. This race is right now open to all three, and is the only hope for a Liberal gain in Saskatchewan.
17/03/04 TH
Email: [hidden]
A correction to the information submitted earlier - Nettie Wiebe is running in Saskatoon-Humboldt, not Saskatoon-Wanuskewin. But even if she were running in Wanuskewin, this would be a tough pickup for the NDP. With a high profile (albeit new) Liberal running - Chris Axworthy, the most likely outcome at this point a vote split between the NDP and the Liberals (as in 1997 and 2000), and a comfortable re-election for Maurice Vellacott.
17/03/04 RWA
Email: radams2@uwo.ca
Is it just me or does Nettie Wiebe have her hands full running in Humboldt as well as Wanuskewin?
The Liberals are running a star candidate in this riding, former NDP provincial cabinet minister Chris Axworthy. This should split the vote sufficiently with the NDP candidate to allow Vellacott to keep a riding he won handily in 2000.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The votes the NDP needs to make up to win this riding are just too many. I do not beleive that the NDP can win this riding, and some Liberal resergence in the area may hurt as well. The Conservatives will re-elect Mr.Vellacott, even if only by a slim margin
15/03/04 Jesse Hoffman
Email: Jesse_Hoffman100@hotmail.com
In Saskatchewan-Wanuskewin, the NDP are running the faboulus former provicial NDP leadership candidate, Nettie Wiebe. With the CPC way down in Saskatchewan since the last election, look for this seat to change hands on election day. NDP pickup.

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