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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:23 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:21 AM 17/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Doug Cryer
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Ralph Goodale
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Darcy Robilliard
Erin Weir

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Wascana (100.0%)
Hon. Ralph Goodale

2000 Result/Résultats:
14,063 41.16%
12,355 36.16%
7,357 21.53%
395 1.16%
0 0.00%

(162/162 polls, 55534/55534 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Joey Kay
Email: [hidden]
Let's face it - Goodale is a master politician, respected statesman, and effective voice for Saskatchewan in Ottawa. Remember, Goodale was the only Liberal (provincially) to win in the '86 election back when he was still somewhat "green"... and he hasn't looked back.
If the Liberals are wiped off the map vis-a-vis Kim Campbell, Goodale would be one of the two survivors. He's not a loser and he won't lose this one.
23/06/04 SaskPhoenix
Email: jrfdragon@hotmail.com
Ralph Goodale is a very strong and competent Liberal cabinet minister - this riding will stay red in a potential Tory tide sweeping the province. Many people here are civil servants and a good mix of blue-collar and white-collar workers with a high level of education.
This NDPer is voting Liberal as a strategic vote to keep the Conservatives out of Wascana - many people I have spoken to in this riding are generally NDP supporters, but they don't feel too comfortable about vote-splitting between the NDP and Liberals. The NDP candidate, Erin Weir, doesn't seem to be in complete tune with the people there, or gives a compelling enough reason to vote NDP.
Count on Wascana to stay redder than a Coca-Cola pop can come election day.
23/06/04 MDF+
Email: [hidden]
While I still expect Ralph to win, my sources tell me that Ralph is polling well below what was expected, while Erin Weir is out-polling expectations. Thw Weir campaign put out a neat little leaflet asking attacking Ralph as ineffective in representing Saskatchewan's interests (neat little pun on the cover, though I can't recall it right now -- something to the effect of "Has Ralph done us any Good[ale]?) With a weak Tory whose connections to the seat are dubious at best, Erin is the strategic choice for anti-Liberal voters of any stripe.
Ralph, but by a far narrower margin than anyone would have expected over Erin.
11/06/04 David Inglis
Email: [hidden]
If the liberal national campaign keeps sinking, and only two liberals in Canada are elected, one of them will be Ralph Goodale. Mr. Goodale is well respected on the hill and in his riding. His budget was very modest, and was praised by all parties.
11/06/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
Against what most people will say this riding can be won easily by the Conservative party, they simply need to run a very strong campaign, and hope Erin does extremely well. The riding does have a chance to go NDP, if there is enough protest vote.
08/06/04 Erin Weir
Email: erin@erinweir.ca
I checked this forum for the first time since the election call to see what was being submitted and was quite surprised by the quote that Gregor Burton is attributing to me. I do not believe that I have ever spoken those words. If this quote has been attributed to me somewhere, I would be interested to know what the source is.
05/06/04 Peter
Email: [hidden]
The race here now reminds me very much of 1988 when it was a three horse contest between former Mayor Larry Schnieder, Goodale, and a high profile NDP candidate named Dickson Bailey. There was no incumbent in the riding and each of the 3 polled within a thousand votes of eachother.
While neither the Tory or NDP Candidate can match Mr. Goodales profile, there is alot dissent now coming out and its aimed at the Liberals. That means Goodale is walking around with a 'Kick Me' sign that he better not forget about.
Ralph better be on every doorstep to talk about what he's done or several hundred people may forget to vote for him. High profile cabinet ministers lose in every election. Its worth remembering.
To close to call.
02/06/04 Gregor Burton
Email: [hidden]
The individual who names himself as only "Lamontagne" has a flawed argument. I stated that Mr. Weir is "Politically Green." By no means was I insinuating that youth is always a detriment. Yes, Ralph won at 24 - although he is very different then Mr. Weir. That was also a very different time. I was simply stating that in this case, youth and inexperience WILL and HAVE detrimented Erin Weir - who's recent comment that he was "glad that we ALLOWED women and minorities to run in elections" shows that he needs to take more time to hone this craft, before he goes up against he likes of Ralph Goodale. His website is full of shots at Mr. Goodale. Since the NDP have never, and will never govern Federally, they can continue running on unrealistic, fantasy based platforms. Erin Weir can continue to live in his imaginary World with Peter Pan and the Easter Bunny, but that doesnt change the fact that Ralph Goodale is still going to win.
01/06/04 SJ
Email: [hidden]
No prediction -- but those who think this is a safe seat for Goodale ought to take a drive around his turf. Erin Weir, the NDP candidate, seems to be winning the sign war. I'm an Adscam Tory, but I can count -- and I don't much care who knocks Goodale out as long as someone does. Oh, and that little headline in the local paper "Goodale: Vote Liberal or Else" isn't helping him much. I think he got torqued, actually, but the notion that the West will lose out if we don't fall in line resonates pretty strongly with the Liberal Leader's "Je besoin Quebec" speech, so arguably the torquing was a matter of emphasis rather than interpretation.
25/05/04 JCM
Email: [hidden]
Ralph Goodale will most certainly be re-elected in Wascana.
It is quite obvious by now that voting patterns in southeast Regina are Liberal federally and NDP provincially. Given the track records of the Liberal and Saskatchewan NDP governments, this voting pattern in not unusual or inconsistent. In fact, this pattern also exists in the Churchill constituency, and may become more common across urban Saskatchewan in the future.
To be sure, Goodale has good name recognition and a squeaky clean reputation, although he has accomplished NOTHING for Saskatchewan during his 30 year political career.
23/05/04 Lamontagne
Email: [hidden]
Goodale is probably the odds on favorite to win here, but it's worth pointing out to Gregory Burton, who was slagging the NDP candidate Weir for his youth, that Goodale himself has been a career politician, one who first ran for office when he was 24, barely two years older than Weir is now! There may be alot of reasons why Weir won't win, or even shouldn't have run, this time out, but his youth is not one of them.
Email: [hidden]
The nomination meeting for the CPC was last week; the candidate for Wascana is Douglas Cryer. I don't know whether or not this is the same Doug Cryer who was an assistant to Souris-Moose Mountain MP Roy Bailey for years & his website is still "under construction." It does look, though, like the CPC has tried for a serious candidate -- no blame accrues to the NDP, though, for their nominee; they picked Weir well before Adscam broke & nobody thought Goodale's seat could possibly be in play. I'm not prepared to predict anybody but a Liberal, though I will observe that Goodale's "Honouring Your Trust" signs on the sides of city buses before the writ has even dropped smell like panic to me -- and to lots of other voters. I'll also note that the 2000 results are hard to read, because there was no PC candidate last time. I lived in Wascana in the last election and wouldn't vote for the Alliance, which under Stockwell Day was strongly communitarian; the CPC under Harper is more libertarian than communitarian; those homeless PC votes from 2000 could be anywhere and this riding may be more volatile than the predictions here suggest.
08/05/04 Ben Carter
Email: benmcarter@hotmail.com
Does anyone have any idea who the Conservative candidate is here? I campaigned in this riding in the last election and I recall the Alliance did fairly well with James Rybchuk. I would guess that Adscam combined with the new Conservative party's momentum would give them an excellent shot at taking it this time. You'd figure they'd have their guy in place by now if they thought they could take it. Or maybe they think with Ralph Goodale's increased profile it's out of there hands.
06/05/04 Gregory P. Burton
Email: [hidden]
Anyone who thinks that there is another party who can win here, is delusional. Mr. Goodale enjoys huge popularity, amongst Liberals AND Non- Liberals in Saskatchewan. The NDP is running a "paper candidate" in 22-year old Erin Weir. This is an individual who is extremely green to the political process, and whose lacking public presence will prove to make this win even more dramatic for the Liberals. I suggest that Mr. Weir put some time into a career, before running against the likes of Ralph Goodale - like around 30 years or so.
01/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Relatively speaking, Wascana's not so naturally NDP as its provincial representation suggests; in fact, it's the most affluently "Red Tory" (read: federal-Liberal-friendly) seat in Regina and all of Saskatchewan. And if cabinet cachet wasn't enough, Ralph Goodale must be counting his blessings that the nouveau Tories are being tarred with the "extremist" brush, or that it's more of a "Chris Axworthy" socialism that sells around these parts. If he loses, it'll be as a token anti-Liberal coup de grace. But even with all the scandals, he might be safer going into this election than the last one...
23/04/04 S. Moore
Email: [hidden]
Certainly, Goodale, as shown in his most recent mail-out to his constituents (I'm one), is playing up the amount of money his influence has brought to the province and the riding. However, recent revelations by Chuck Guite that Goodale, like Martin, interfered to have contracts directed to Earnescliffe could hurt his "straight arrow" reputation. Plus, NDP candidate Erin Weir is a very impressive young man who will forcefully make the case that--whatever goodies Goodale has delivered--the Martin/Goodale agenda has not been good for the country.
Goodale's margin was not huge last time. Liberal fortunes have taken a blow and NDP fortunes are up. This race will be closer than some think.
19/04/04 MDF+
Email: [hidden]
I think Ralph Goodale is pretty tough (read "almost impossible" to beat) here.
One interesting wrinkle to the seat is the campaign team New Democrat Erin Weir (who, despite the spelling, is a young man and not a young woman) has assembled.
The NDP campaign team, leadership and candidate are a gang of "young turks" out to make a name for themselves. They know they've got a long shot to win. But they also know that a respectable showing now will enhance their standing in the party down the road. These are folks who (like the Riders) are running for the future.
Watch them take bigger risks. Watch them use new campaign messaging, message delivery and voter tracking techniques. Look for innovation and creativity.
If these guys put together a campaign that even comes close, their political futures are in good shape. In the unlikely event that they pull off an upset, they'll be able to write their own tickets.
So, while I doubt the race will be that close or ever uncertain, I suspect that Wascana may be the most FUN seat in Saskatchewan for the interested observer.
03/04/04 BAQ
Email: [hidden]
It is likely that Goodale will win, however he doesn’t have a lock on the seat. The seat would be a natural NDP seat if it was not for Goodale. Provincially four of the five urban ridings in the area were solid NDP seats. Goodale wins because a large proportion of New Democrats in the riding vote for him, buying into the whole 'it good to have a cabinet minister from our the city and he is the only guy that can stop the alliance' arguements. It should be remembered that in both 97 and 00 Goodale won with only slightly over 40% of the vote and that this time it seems the Conservative are not running much of a campaign. If the adscandal keeps gaining momentum the NDP could make a run at Goodale. If some of the traditional NDP voters can be convinced to return to the NDP, they will have a chance at an upset. It’s a long shot, but this campaign could be closer than most assume.
22/03/04 Craig
Locally popular, Ralph Goodale will probably the only Liberal elected between Winnipeg and Vancouver, simply because of his name recognition that will ward off Conservative and NDP threats. Securing a top cabinet post will help his cause, along with the fact that he tried hard to clean up scandals in the Public Works department. As a result, regardless of what happens to the Liberals, Goodale should be back. Predicted results: Liberal 45%, Conservative 27%, NDP 26%, others 2%.
17/03/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
Ralph should win here. Will the people of Wascana throw out the popular Finance Minister and Saskatchewan's only representative at the cabinet table? I don't think so.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
The only reason why we are not predicting a Liberal shutout of Saskatchewan is because Mr. Goodale is well liked, high profile and hard working. During the Chretien years he took over the crisis ridden public works department and did his best to clean things up (we were very impressed with the way he handled himself at that time). This obviously has not gone unnoticed by Paul Martin...he is finance minister after all, and that is certainly not going to hurt his chances in the election. Possibly the only Liberal to survive in either Saskatchewan or Alberta.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Goodale may be the only Liberal to be elected from Saskatchewan. He's finance minister, and they tend to be re-elected. It's sad in a way, as pre-scandal, I had predicted 4 or 5 Liberals from Saskatchewan, now I'm predicting one.
Email: [hidden]
This is a pretty easy Liberal hold. Goodale enjoys a lot of personal popularity, and being the new Finance Minister should help that along quite nicely ensuring his reelection.

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