Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:37 PM 6/16/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:37 PM 18/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Mike Bocking
Scott Etches
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Blanche Juneau
Randy Kamp
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Tammy Lea Meyer

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Dewdney-Alouette (100.0%)
Grant McNally

2000 Result/Résultats:
25,563 58.33%
7,884 17.99%
5,297 12.09%
5,079 11.59%
0 0.00%

(179/201 polls, 69958/76317 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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09/06/04 all candidates on BCTV
Email: [hidden]
Even though this riding had overwhelming support in the last election for the Alliance Party, I don't believe the new Conservative party will hold on to that same level of support.
I don't believe that Blanche Juneau presented herself well on BCTV Global, in fact she didn't add much to the conversation at all.
I think the voters of Dewdney-Alouette are looking for a candidate that understands their issues and will speak on their behalf at the federal level.
After seeing all 3 candidates on the Global morning news last week I think Mr. Bocking was the best of the 3. I also think the NDP's choice of Jack Layton for leader will sit well with Canadian voters and garner them more than just a token few seats in Ottawa.
08/06/04 Trevor
Email: [hidden]
Previous comments have suggested that the CPC in this riding went through a tough nomination battle. While that may be true, all nomination candidates appeared in support of Randy Kamp at this year's Pitt Meadows Day Parade (June 5th). It should be noted that the CPC was the only group to have a float in the parade witnessed by thousands of residents. Randy Kamp and the CPC are unified in their efforts, and the competing parties are not putting in the effort. This riding is clearly an easy win for the CPC.
01/06/04 Old Political Hack
Email: [hidden]
There may well be some hurt feelings from the nomination, but the combined Alliance/PC vote in this riding was a staggering 70% in 2000. The Alliance vote alone was 58%. Pretty tough to see how, with the current national trends, that would melt away overnight.
It's also worth noting that the demographics of this riding have changed considerably in favour of Conservatives in recent years. There are now lots more new subdivisions, minivans, and downtown commuters, making it very different from when it was a working class, blue collar NDP voting region many years ago. Easy Conservative win.
25/05/04 Buffalo
Email: [hidden]
The Conservatives have mismanaged their nomination. Candidate Randy Kamp won the nod at the expense of alienating the supporters of popular, mainstream candidate, and former Progressive Conservative standard bearer, Gord Kehler. If Liberal Blanche Juneau can woo Red Tories... watch out. Libs ran token candidates last two go-arounds. If Juneau spends money and campaigns hard, she will be in the game.
24/05/04 David.C
Grant McNally isn't running again and the Conservative candidate is sort of an unknown. Due to the strong position of the Conservatives in 2000 it would take alot to knock them off - but - that election was vastly diffrent than this one 1) the NDP was hugely un-popular provincially and federally alot of NDP'ers voted Liberal which leads into this 2) the Alliance vote was mostly populist consisting of previous NDP supporters so this isn't a "truely Conservative" area and 3) like I said before there is no incumbancy or star Candidates. I agree with the previous assesment this riding can't be called until at least a few weeks into the campaign. I think all things being considered it's gone back into it's traditional position of being a swing riding between the NDP and the Conservatives, I don't excpect the Liberals to get more than 15 to 20% of the vote. Also only the far eastern sections of this riding would be considered part of the bible-belt, (east of Mission) and those areas are sparsly populated compared to the main population concentrations in Maple Ridge and Mission, which are alot more for a lack of a better word mainstream.
25/03/04 Bernard
Email: bernard@shama.ca
Baring some disaster, will remain conservative.
Interesting will be how much ground the NDP picks up. If they can get into the 30s, they will be a threat to win in 2008
19/03/04 Ian King
Email: vancouverscrum@myrealbox.com
Grant McNally isn't running this time around; earlier this year he said that he would return to private life. Randy Kamp secured the Conservative nomination with the help of the local Baptist and Pentencostal churches, a move which has caused some acrimony. Though Dewdney-Alouette is further up the Fraser Valley, it's definitely not bible-belt like those ridings south of the Fraser. Check the area's voting record at other levels, and it's all mixed up between NDP types to biz-liberals to rightwingers. No way am I making any prediction on this riding until the campaign gets under way for a bit.
18/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
Within previous riding boundaries this general area was a swing seat between the NDP and PC's in the 1970's and 1980's. After 1993, the area solidifed under the Reform/CA banner. While the CPC will not be able to maintain its previous large margins of vistory, this seat will likely remain in the hands of the CPC.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding has voted NDP before, but this time, I beleive it will vote Conservative. Mr.McNally is well knowen, and will get some personal vote

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