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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
10:23 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
10:23 PM 6/25/2004

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Brian Carroll
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Grant Fraser
Betty Hinton
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
John O'Fee
Arjun Singh

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Cariboo-Chilcotin (13.3%)
Philip Mayfield
Kamloops, Thompson and Highland Valleys (85.3%)
Betty Hinton
Prince George-Bulkley Valley (1.5%)
Richard Harris

2000 Result/Résultats:
26,233 50.31%
13,160 25.24%
8,496 16.29%
3,614 6.93%
641 1.23%

(38/192 polls, 10499/53321 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Kamloops, Thompson and Highland Valleys
(185/202 polls, 67377/72003 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Prince George-Bulkley Valley
(5/206 polls, 1155/59156 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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09/06/04 ulala
Conservative incumbents aren't going to lose in B.C.? In the last election, the combined right vote was in B.C. was over 53%. It is now consistently hovering around 30%! True, the Cons are unlikely to lose seats in Abbotsford, Chilliwack, or Prince George. They will continue rack up huge majorities in those areas.
But consider the efficiency of the NDP vote. Rarely does the NDP win a seat with more than 39% of the popular vote. The NDP are polling around 30% in the province, but are basically non existant in about 1/5th of the province's ridings (Richmond, Delta, South Surrey, South Vancouver, and Upper Fraser Valley Ridings). This means that they have to polling well above 30% in other areas (Vancouver Centre/East, PoCo, Burnaby, Vancouver Island and KAMLOOPS).
Let's consider the Cons votes. What does it mean if the Cons are running at 32% in the polls. First, the polls are picking up 'wasted' Cons support in the Upper Fraser Valley, the South Okanagan, and the North. Clearly, the Cons are going to maintain 60 to 65% support in these ridings, no matter what.
As polls are drawn random samples from all ridings in the province, it is evident that the Cons are clearly running far behind NDP and Libs in Greater Vancouver, Vancouver Island, ridings such as Kamloops. Hence, the Cons are set to LOSE ridings such as Kamloops, PoMo-Westwood-PoCo, Surrey North, and all seats on the Island with the exception of Van Island North. There is no way that this seat remains Conservative.
08/06/04 S.G.
Email: [hidden]
The results here will likely be fairly close as in 1997 and reflecting current BC-wide polls. About six months ago UVIC analyst Norman Ruff predicted this riding would be a three-horse race. Kamloops Daily News editorialist Susan Duncan wrote prior to the start of the campaign that the local race would be between the Tories and Liberals, with the NDP behind. Jim Harrison (radio/newspaper editorialist) predicted Hinton will hold her seat. Expect the NDP to retain a solid 20 or 25 % of the vote but not to be in first place. With the Conservatives gaining momentum nationally, Hinton will probably keep her seat, and polls suggest the Liberals are unlikely to make BC gains this time. However, the remaining national campaign may yet swing this in O'Fee's favour, and it will be interesting to see to what extent his successes in municipal elections will be reflected in this federal campaign. Whoever wins this time will not have a 10,000 vote landslide as Hinton did in year 2000.
07/06/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Conservative incumbents are not going to lose in B.C.! Read the polls. Hinton will win against a fairly strong showing by the NDP. Strong name recognition will not do the trick for O'Fee with the anger brewing against the Libs. And I just don't think Jack will sell well enough here in Kamloops.
25/05/04 Joe Shmo
Email: [hidden]
While John O'Fee has better name recognition than Betty Hinton in Kamloops, I don't think that is going to mean all that much, as that doesn't necessarily mean that everybody likes him. They just hear his name a lot more than hers. That is more an indication that Betty Hinton is not doing anything noteworthy.
As people in Kamloops tend to vote more for the person running in the riding rather than the party, I think that this one is still up in the air. Brian Carroll stands as good a chance as O'Fee and Hinton.
25/05/04 Karl S.
Email: [hidden]
There is an additional candidate who has been drawing some attention in the riding over the past few days, and may be enough of a force to shift the outcome of the vote. His name is Arjun Singh, and he is running as an Independent. He is a local entrepreneur, and the son of former Liberal Party of BC candidate Gur Singh. Arjun appears to be a long-shot candidate; he indicates he's not running to win, but rather to convince people to exercise their democratic right, and get out and vote. He'll probably also lose some votes given his affiliation with the BC Liberals via his father (and the fact that their popularity appears to be dropping rapidly). Nonetheless, at least some Kamloopsians seem to have an affinity for candidates that are unlikely to win. In a riding that was shaping up to be somewhat of a three-way race between Carroll, O'Fee and Hinton (perhaps even closer than 1997's Groves-Riis-Bosman race), we could have the "Ernie Schmidt" factor at play again, with the result of some NDP support (in the order of perhaps 1,000 votes) going to Mr. Singh. Mr. Singh is likely deemed as much more "mainstream" than Mr. Schmidt (who has moved on to provincial politics), has at least some name recognition within Kamloops (he has a weekly technology column in the Kamloops Daily News), seems to be serious about running (to the point of even having a campaign site/blog) and should be able to attract perhaps 2-3% of the vote. That would appear to be enough to shift a possible Carroll win into the unlikely category, with O'Fee coming through in a tight race against Hinton.
19/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We're going with a Conservative keep. If Nelson Riis was running we'd hedge our bet on an NDP victory, however since he's not and "Liberal" being something of a dirty word, we'd think that Betty's going back to Ottawa.
19/04/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
This riding is going Conservative. This riding may be decided by the "protest" vote, but this time around I don't think that the "protest" vote will be enough for the NDP to pull off a win, they may do a very good on elections night, but not enough to get a candidate elected, against a united right.
07/04/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
Provincially Kamloops is one of the bellwethers. It always has at least one government MLA. It is not like Kelowna, which is pure right wing.
Meanwhile Federally the riding has elected some interesting MPs over the years
Davie Fulton PC
Len Marchand Lib (interestingly an Okanagan band member being elected in Kamloops)
Nelson Riis NDP
Betty Hinton CA and now CPC
This election will about who is the number 2 person in the riding, the Liberals or the NDP.
02/04/04 CdnVoter
Email: [hidden]
I would be interested in knowing how many of the predictors for this riding are actually from this riding. An earlier predictor is right: this riding votes for person over party. The Liberals are running a City Councillor who topped the polls the last two times. His name recognition is higher than even the incumbent MP. Also Paul Martin is extremely popular here (and happens to be speaking in Kamloops today). Liberals will win a very close election.
30/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding will be a nail-biter right up until the end. The NDP finished second here, but this is the part of BC that went from traditional NDP, to traditional Reform/Alliance land. Why? quite a bit has to do with western protest. The people here will protest regardless. The question here is not one of right-left wing, but of protest VS the status quo. If the NDP can return to it's protest roots, they can win here. The NDP is at 20% in BC, those votes have to be coming from somewhere, my guess is they are coming from here. The NDP/CPC will fight over this riding, and we will not know who wins until the results are brought in. The Liberals won this riding in 1974, and have done well here in the past. If the NDP focuses exclusivley on urban issues, rural ridings like this may turn towards the Liberals.
30/03/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Kamloops-Thompson tends to vote for person over party (which is why Riis managed to hang on throughout the '90's), and as a result province-wide trends aren't a lot of use here.
I'm expecting a tight Con v NDP race here, but because of the above voting trend, I don't feel able to call this either way.
It's worth remembering that one regional breakdown (with a large MoE) of one poll done a long time (relatively speaking) before an election and with a rather large possibility of any swings being little more than statistical noise probably isn't enough to call a riding one way or the other.
27/03/04 Ghoris
This was always more of a Nelson Riis riding than an NDP riding. The NDP has abandoned much of its western-protest-populist history (which served it so well in the 1980s) in favour of a more left-wing, Ontario-centred urban agenda. It won't sell too well here. Add to the mix the fact that NDP support in B.C. has dropped 11 points according to today's Ipsos-Reid poll, which also showed a Conservative gain of 11 points, and colour this riding blue.
20/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
The NDP and Liberals will be hard pressed to make any major inroads against Betty Hinton in this riding. The NDP held onto this for years because of the popularity of Nelson Riis, not because people wanted to vote NDP.
Betty Hinton has also been a good riding MP - she shows up and listens to people.
19/03/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
Conservatives will win this again, along with other toss up seats. NDP rise notwithstanding, I think at the end of the day, the temptation to throw the Liberals out of office will outweigh other considerations.
17/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
Kamloops is an interesting riding. The area was represented from 1945 to 1968 by the PC's. From 1968 to 1979 the Liberals held the riding. In 1979 the PC retook the riding and in 1980, Nelson Riis was narrowly elected for the first NDP take. Nelson Riis was a popular and moderate politician, who held the seat for 20 years until 2000, and received many cross-over votes.
The region is somewhat small "c" conservative. Only due to the 50% to 25% CA win in 2000 in addition to the 2000 PC vote am I leaning towards the CPC. A more reliable indicator of what will happen is riding will be the provincial trends in polls after the election has been called.
16/03/04 P. Kelly
Email: [hidden]
NDP should take back its interior bastion of support in Kamloops. Nelson Riis might not be running, but the history of the NDP and Kamloops are well established

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