Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:55 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
10:33 AM 6/23/2004

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  • Feb & Mar 04

    (Links? See sponsorship details.)
    (Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
    Lewis Dahlby
    George Gidora
    Canadian Action canadienne:
    Pat Goff
    Charley King
    James Moore
    Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
    Kwangyul Peck
    Green Party/Parti Vert:
    Richard Voigt

    Population 2001
    Number of electors 2000
    Nombre d'électeurs

    Incumbents/Les députés:
    Port Moody-Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam (100.0%)
    James Moore

    2000 Result/Résultats:
    20,269 49.92%
    11,926 29.37%
    3,797 9.35%
    3,107 7.65%
    1,502 3.70%

    Port Moody-Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam
    (170/238 polls, 65136/91068 voters)
    2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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    23/06/04 Victor A.
    Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
    James Moore will certainly win this riding, but the CPC will lose as much as 6 BC ridings in this election and won't make any gains, especially in vancouver where they recently polled only 18 % if the vote. They'll lose 2 seats to the Liberals: Equaimauul-Juan-de-Fuca and Richmond. They'll lose 3 to the NDP, Skeena-Bulkley Valley, Nanaimo-Alberni and Nanaimo-Cowichan and their lose Surrey-North to either the Independent Chuck Cadman or to the NDPer Jim Karpoff. The CPC will also have trouble to hang onto New Westminster-Coquaitlam, Burnaby-New Westminster, Saanich-Gulf Islands and maybe even Vancouver-North and Fleetwood-Port Kells ( due to very weak candidates ). On the other hand, I think that Kelowna and the BC mainland are very safe for them.
    22/06/04 Eric S.
    Email: [hidden]
    It is crunch time. With a week till the election, I think this riding will go to the conservatives. I do agree with earlier postings that PoCo, my hometown, is leaning NDP. This is true for the older section of PoCo, like area around James Park, and the city center. But if you consider the newer suburban sections, like Westgate, Riverwood, areas around the new Terry Fox secondary, the NDP support is weaker. In these area, the main observations are that a) my Korean neighbors are voting Liberal for their Korean candidate, b) a majority immigrant popultaion except for the Koreans, eg Chinese and Indian, are leaning toward the conservatives. This is true from first-hand experience talking to my neighbors and firends, and if you don't believe me, the shift in voting pattern in these communities are well documented in a report done by the CBC http://www.cbc.ca/story/election/national/2004/06/17/immigrant_fed040617.html
    c) the rest of the voters in the riding are about divided along the Conservative and NDP line.
    I would also like to point out that although PoCo as a whole leans toward the NDP, that is not true for the rest of the riding like Westwood plateau, and down Ioco in Port Moody. These are very affluent area, and it holds a very substantial conservative vote, may it be provincial or federal.
    It is time to move the riding from "too close" to either one of the politcial party. Although the NDP will enjoy are rebound, this is not the riding as it was in 1988. The current situation will put James Moore ahead, and I am sure that it will hold ture at election night.
    21/06/04 Bernard
    Email: [hidden]
    The NDP is not doing well outside of the City of Vancouver, tied in the mid 20s with the Liberals, but there are some strong pockets of support.
    IN talking with people that I know over in the riding, the concensus is that people like Charley King and find James Moore too smarmy - too much of a politician and not a person that feels approachable. This alone is not enough to win the riding for King.
    This riding is a swing riding and it swings various ways. It is not like much of the GVRD south of the Fraser that is more right wing than anything. This is not natural CPC territory.
    The anti-CPC/Harper backlash vote is collapsing to one person - King.
    20/06/04 Poco person
    Email: [hidden]
    The reason this riding is so interesting is because it is two way race between the NDP and the Conservatives...many people make the mistake of seeing this riding as a Fraser valley seatwith big tory majorities..it is not, it is closer to the new west/coq/burnaby types..yes it has upscale westwood plateau..it also has regular middle class poco (the biggest part of the riding)..this is also the area that is witnessing like many others the return of reform/ndp'rs back to the NDP that is why the Conservative vote is down over 20 points in BC compared to 2000..in fact this is one of the unreported stories of this election...the other thing about this riding is that it is composed of two quite different provincial seats the east is the traditionally NDP Poco riding ,the west is the solidly BC Liberal Port Moody riding....so to say this one is an easy Tory hold shows a lack of local understanding...and right now this riding could go either NDP or Tory...and whatever the outcome I believe it will be a close one come election night
    20/06/04 Objective Observer
    Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
    I have been given the impression, by reading some of the posts herein, that James Moore is flakey, sometimes almost approaching an ogre, and I had obviously tended to believe that some of this opinion could have some validity. Frankly, I am not familiar with James Moore as I reside in a riding on the coast.
    However, I was watching Vancouver Island's New VI with Moe Sihota this evening on the topic regarding "Has Stephen Harper Avoided B.C.".
    James Moore was the spokesperson for the Conservatives in this regard and, in my opinion, I was somewhat pleasantly surprised as he appeared to be to be relatively intelligent in his responses to various issues.
    Moe Sihota had commented that he had never seen so many calls on his board from Port Coquitlam on this segment although Moore's appearance was unrelated to his own riding. In fact, Charley King of the NDP called in and was cut off by Moe Sihota.
    I have a feeling that the NDP is running an overly aggressive campaign in this riding, which is similar to the 2001 provincial riding of Port Coquitlam as witnessed by the submissions that were entered thereto.
    As my initial posting suggested, the demographics of the riding have changed considerably during the past decade (geared toward the middle/upper middle class) with considerable development occurring in Port Moody (Heritage Woods), Coquitlam (Westwood Plateau), and Port Coquitlam (Citadel Heights).
    20/06/04 Klaus B.
    I predict that this riding will be a solid Conservative win. Moore may not be the sharpest tack in the drawer but he hasn't made any mistakes and is well liked. I also bet that come election day, King's support will be soft and probably whither away to the Liberals - but hey are far enough back in this riding that it won't matter. Moore will be in for another turn.
    20/06/04 Brian W.
    Email: [hidden]
    King will win this in a squeaker. Moore and Peck are splitting Westwood Plateau and King is winning big in Port Coquitlam. A well-placed source informs me both NDP and Conservative internals show King with a narrow lead 40% to Moore's 38%. King is the moderate Centrist who, as pointed out, is picking up considerable old Reform support. He even talks about how he vote Reform in 93 to get the Mulroney Tories out and how they are now back. He's a maverick, Moore is a slave to party leadership. King narrowly.
    15/06/04 Andrej B.
    Email: andrejb@canada.com
    I can't understand why this riding is still listed as "too close."
    James Moore is a relatively high-profile MP -- in a good way (an important distinction given his Party affiliation) -- who has performed well in Ottawa. And Harper and the Conservatives clearly have momentum on their side. Moore will win with an increased plurality.
    To those from the Charley King Campaign who would spin Moore's frequent media appearances as a sign of desperation: you couldn't be more wrong. It's precisely because Moore stays on message, knows the issues, and is otherwise free of any Cheryl Gallant-esque tendencies that the Conservative Party keeps asking him to do interviews. I understand he's one of very few Conservative candidates nationally who have been asked to play this role.
    15/06/04 The Donald
    Email: [hidden]
    After seeing James Moore get hammered for his extreme views on BCTV the other day, all I can say is: conservative mission ABORTED.
    My prediction: King
    15/06/04 BT
    Email: [hidden]
    This appears to be a more interesting race than I initially thought. Here are my observations.
    First, regarding signage on private property. In the side-streets around Pleansantside in Port Moody, Moore clearly has the lead with a substantial amount of support. There were one or two Charley Kings, and I did see a Kwangyul Peck. Once you start heading up Heritage Mountain and going across Panorama through Westwood Plateau, the density of signage decreases noticeably. Interestingly, what political signage I saw was mostly for Peck. However, the fact that there were definitely more "For Sale" signs than anything else could indicate apathy, or perhaps indecision. I do not know what the situation is in Port Coquitlam and the other areas of Coquitlam.
    Second, regarding the first all candidates meeting. Moore, Peck, and King all had fairly strong support judging by the level of applause each received. Both Moore and Peck were asked difficult questions by rather angry voters. Moore faced hostile questions on social issues including abortion and affordable housing. Peck encountered substantial anger regarding Liberal scandals. Both handled the questioning competently. King did not have to answer as many questions, however those he did answer, he did well. Note that the meeting also had representation from the smaller parties, including the Greens, Libertarians, Communists, and Canadian Action Party. Obviously they were not the focus, but the audience welcomed them all and was happy to hear all viewpoints.
    14/06/04 Common Voter
    Email: [hidden]
    Everybody I have talked to in the riding believe that James Moore has done a very good job of representing his riding. With more than 50% of the vote last time around, I don't see that there are enough people that would have changed there minds about him to dump him. Peck has run for just about everything in the past, and people see him as one of these guys who will do anything to get elected, to anything. The NDP may have a chance here, but I would be surprised...there is still a certain amount of distrust of them, but people really do hate the provincial Liberals, so the have a fighting chance.
    ps. To that person who said that former PC's including Sperill Chambers and Guenther Stahl are not supporting James Moore: You are totally out to lunch. The entire executive of the former PC riding association (of which those two were part of) unanimously support James Moore. I get e-mail just about every second day from Sperril campaigning for Moore. Just about, the only members in the former PC party in the riding who do not support James Moore, are David Orchard supporters and went to the NDP or Green.
    11/06/04 Peter
    Email: [hidden]
    Notice how much Moore is appearing in radio and on TV lately. That's because he's running scared and rumour has it from a pretty reliable source that he is calling the central party campaign daily begging for them to get him more media hits. Problem is, when he gets on the radio or TV, he is dificult to understand due to the fact that he is unable to stay on message. Moore is also showing how much he fears King by attacking the NDP at every turn. Is Moore in trouble? Judging from the way he is acting, I'd say yes. He should know best.
    09/06/04 Reagan Democrat
    Email: [hidden]
    If Reformers are flocking to Charley King's cause, it's largely because they like his stances on crime, the drug war, and military spending. He's very right-wing for a New Democrat. What's he doing in the NDP anyway?
    05/06/04 Karl
    Email: [hidden]
    A quick drive through the riding shows who is coming out on top. NDP signs are everywhere, while James Moore can't even get Conservative signs in Westwood Plateau, which should be a stronghold.
    Moore has been getting a lot of bad press lately by running his phonebank out of Toronto. Why can't James Moore pay locals to do phoning if he is unable to get volunteers? Moore was featured in a Vancouver Sun story the other day entitled "Tory Machine Rolls Over Grassroots." I couldn't put it better myself. Reformers are flocking to King in droves.
    04/06/04 Old Political Hack
    Email: [hidden]
    Moore took this riding away from an incumbent last time, taking 50% of the vote. He didn't just beat Lou Sekora, a high profile former Coquitlam Mayor, he destroyed him. The combined Alliance/PC vote in this riding was over 57%. In addition, the demographics of this riding continue to swing in favour of the Conservatives. The Liberals might be able to argue that it is their demographic too, but one thing is for sure -- the NDP has had a tough time convincing upper middle class families from the 'burbs to vote for them in recent years, and Jack Layton sure isn't trying very hard to move to the centre.
    The predictions of NDP success here are largely based on old glories from the 1980s, when the region was very different, and a personal dislike for Moore, an aggressive, young high profile MP who has crossed swords with many NDP partisans in the past. None of this changes the fact, however, that the NDP only got 9% here last time, and any new votes they do get would likely be cannibalized from the Liberals, not Moore. How do you forge an NDP win out of that?
    No one on the Conservatives' BC campaign team is terribly worried about this riding. If there are incumbent Conservative ridings at risk anywhere in the Lower Mainland, it is in Surrey and Burnaby/New West, not here.
    P.S. The sign wars don't mean a thing either way. They are easily the worst predictor of electoral success I have ever seen. They sure rev up the base, as we have seen here, but that's it.
    03/06/04 PJ
    Email: [hidden]
    Moore is going down big time, no doubt about it.
    Let's face it, the Tories just aren't polling the numbers that the CA did last time. Last time they polled over 50% and Moore actually underperformed in the election. This time, with the Tories poling around 35%, Moore is in tough. He has done nothing over the past 4 years to distinguish himself from the party, and, contrary to reports here, is not well-liked (or even well-known) in the community, where he has had little if no contact with constituents over the past few years.
    King, on the other hand, is a party maverick who is bringing over the old reform voters who simply can't stomach the thought of voting Tory. If Layton does well, King will do well. If Layton doesn't do well, King will still do well, because his campaign is focussed more on the community than the national leader.
    02/06/04 U.S.
    Email: [hidden]
    Mike Bailley must not live in this riding. In fact, this riding is MOSTLY made up of Port Coquitlam and Coquitlam. PoCo and Coquitlam voted NDP in 1996 and had strong NDP support in 2001. Both communities punished BC Liberal aligned municipal politicians in the 2002 civic elections and from what I can tell from signs on private property Charley King is killing Moore in the sign war. Even where I live in Citadel Heights, which is solid middle-class, King has Moore out-numbered in signs 15-2. Moore is too close to Gordon Campbell and he is in serious trouble. And it seems to me that Charley is the one with the most money, he's been running devastating full pg ads in the newspapers for several weeks now. Moore is toast.
    28/05/04 Mike Bailey
    Email: [hidden]
    Anyone who thinks Moore is going to lose is out of touch with reality. There are three reasons for this:
    1. Moore has been a great local MP. He has door knocked neighbourhoods between elections, he has a great profile in Ottawa and has done a lot for the Tri-Cities. He has been the only MP fighting for residents on the leaky condo issue (hence Simma Holt's endorsement). In short Moore is an engertic MP who stands up for his riding.
    2. The NDP campaign is going nowhere fast. A bunch of lousy newspaper ads weeks before the campaign starts shows that the NDP campaign not only is probably short on cash, but doesn't know how to spend it. On the whole I think King will find more support online than at the doors. This is a riding that did not vote NDP in 1996, Christy Clark was elected then. If it is so great why doesn't Ian Waddell want to come back and run here?
    3. This riding pretty much follows the provincial numbers. The CA got 49% in BC last time, right about what Moore got. The Lib and NDP numbers were pretty close as well. Today's EKOS poll had the Conservatives at 37% in BC, with the NDP at 30%. So even discouting Moore's personal factor (which has got to worth a couple of percent), the NDP are at least 7% behind.
    Don't forget that for a riding that is supposed to be such a natural NDP seat (cause winning by 4000 votes 16 years ago is 'normal' and the NDP losing since then is the 'blip'), there has been a lot of new houses. This isn't the Port Moody of the 1970's or 80's, there are lot less union workers and a lot more suburban commuters. This riding now looks more like North Van or Surrey, than New West or South Vancouver.
    It will be Blue on June 28th.
    28/05/04 B Gourlay
    Email: [hidden]
    I live in the riding and I think the NDP will re-take it. The anger at Gordon Campbell is huge and is destroying Moore's and Peck's chances, as they both support Campbell. King seems to be taking advantage of this. He's been to my doorstep and almost all my friends and neighbours talking about sending Ottawa a real message and not sending another Gordon Campbell-style MP there. Further more, he's appearing on the door-step with extremely popular former MLA Mike Farnworth. One last note: Today I drove through the main drags of PoCo(which is the bulk of the riding) and on my way from Citadel to Prairie I counted 19 King signs to Moore's 2 on private property. I think it's time to consider calling this for the NDP, especially considering the new Envrionics Poll that shows the BC breakdown as 36-NDP, 34-Tory, and 26-Liberal.
    25/05/04 RWA
    Some of the criticisms of Moore that I've seen here have been pretty lame. He handed out flyers at a parade. He's announcing the support of a former Liberal MP. There's something wrong about being named "Best up and coming Politician"? This leads me to believe that a lot of the NDP predictions here are based mainly on personal hatred of James Moore.
    25/05/04 Dave Karp
    Email: [hidden]
    Looks like it is Moore who hsn't got any money. Charley King has run several full page ads in the Tri-city News, while Moore has had no presence.
    I heard Charley King the other day on CBC Early Edition. He sounded very engaging, bright, and articulate. His coverage in the Tri-City News on the RAV Line was also good, and he was the only candidate that gave an intelligible quote. Moore is a good debater and a 'smooth' talker, but he has certainly met his match in Charley King. King seems to understand more about the RAV line than James Moore -- and James Moore's the transport critic.
    Moore's in tough. He has name recognition, but that's about all. King and the NDP in a squeaker.
    25/05/04 RH
    Email: [hidden]
    I live in the riding and if you ignore the huge amount of signs that James Moore has on PUBLIC property, that are annoying people they are so over board, Charley King is killing Moore in the Private Property sign war...which actually counts. Word also has it that popular former MLA Mike Farnworth is working full-time for King. Moore's ties and support of Gordon Campbell and the BC Libs is hurting Moore big time and will lose him the election just as it did the municipal politicians with ties to the BC Libs in the municipal election. This riding is going back to its NDP roots.
    19/05/04 Larry Melnyk
    Email: [hidden]
    Here's an example of James Moore's 'smart campaigning': "Former Liberal MP backs Moore." That's right, he is now bragging that a former Trudeau Liberal is backing his campaign. Here's another: James Moore bragging that he is named 'best up-and-coming politician.' This guy is totally out of touch with reality if he thinks that bragging about being an up-and-coming politician, and being supported by a Trudeau Liberal are actually going to help him in this campaign. The only thing that people dislike worse than up-and-coming politicians is a Trudeau Liberal. This guy has gotten too big for his britches and is going down.
    Moore likes to brag about his high profile in Ottawa. It is true that he does have a high profile in Ottawa. This makes it even more obvious that he has no community presence at home. He has done nothing for the community, has brought no investment to the community, and voters are going to turf him out in the next election.
    The best person to capitalize on this is Charley King. Kwangyul Peck isn't even in the picture and King has been riding James Moore all the way, and the campaign hasn't even started yet!
    19/05/04 Phil
    Email: [hidden]
    WOW ... Moore has just recieved the endorsement of Simma Holt, a former Liberal MP and Trudeau Cabinet Minister!
    Moore seems to be attracting voters from all over the political spectrum and building upon his massive 58% support base from the last election.
    To correct some inaccuracies in the post from M Dalton, Moore did have volunteers handing out flyers at the May Day parade (I should know, one of them gave me one).
    Moore's campaign seems to be gaining momenteum every day and by the looks of it his campaign team is absoluetly huge. Last weekend, I saw a number of his youth supporters out rallying on the sidewalk - another sign that his campaign is in full gear.
    By contrast, no one I've talked to has seen any sign of Liberal Kwangyul Peck and NDP candidate Charley King appears to be scrambling to raise more money, holding a last minute fundraiser in the middle of the election campaign, on June 4th.
    Easy win for Moore.
    15/05/04 M Dixon
    Email: [hidden]
    James Moore is already falling behind -- and an election hasn't even been called yet. James Moore was also seen at the Port Coquitlam May Day parade, leafletting while the actual parade was taking place (how tacky). Also, he was handing out leaflets alone. What? No volunteers? Moore has been invisible, has no presence in terms of ads or media coverage and seems generally disorganized. His press release announcing his campaign office opening only hit the local papers the day of the opening. This is in stark contrast to Charley King who has been running ads in every edition of the local paper and already has an office that is open and staffed.
    Given the latest polls that show the Conservatives well behind even the NDP in BC, it seems all the more likely that Moore is toast. Face it -- Moore has done nothing to distinguish himself from the party and it is highly unlikely that he will poll well above his party. Even the profile he's built in Ottawa is starting to fade as Harper has demoted him to the backbenches, hence his new nickname in Ottawa: 'curtain boy'. King should poll above his party with his tough stance on crime, the gun registry, and fiscal responsibility -- not your typical NDP issues. The numbers are there. King will win.
    12/05/04 BL
    Email: [hidden]
    Can James Moore get anymore foolish. On Sunday, he sent out a press release announcing with much bravado that he is the first to open his campaign office. Trouble is--NDP Candidate Charley King had his open before and as of Tuesday night, Moore's office, though he says it is open, was dark, locked and full of old junk sitting in one corner. The media are laughing at this guy. King is everywhere. He had a big presence at May Day with popular former MLA Mike Farnworth. As said, his office is open. He's won the endorsement from the powerful Catholic Womens League and he's running very effective ads against Moore in EVERY issue of the local newspaper. Literally not a squeak has been heard from the Liberal and Moore is just in full retreat. King's got it.
    11/05/04 Hans
    Email: [hidden]
    How is the NDP going to go from 9% to 37%? Well, Conservative support has flatlined at about 28-30%, where the Alliance previously polled 50% in 2000. (It isn't that remarkable that Moore got 50% of the vote last time, he was polling at the same level as the party.) The NDP's support has gone up from 12% in BC to 30%.
    All three parties are running neck and neck. So, it's not a question of whether King and the NDP can go from 9% to a win, but rather a question of which candidate has the best chance of polling above his party's numbers. Forget about Kwangyul Peck, because it is highly unlikely that he'll poll above his party's numbers -- he'll be lucky to poll 25%! As for Moore, it is unlikely that he will be able to poll above his party's numbers. He is just another Conservative MP who takes his marching orders from Stephen Harper. When Moore gets an original thought of his own, he quickly changes it to follow the party line. Not to mention the things that he has said about women, which are devastating to his campaign. Moore did say that women may have abortions to avoid gaining weight or losing a wardrobe. That's a fact. And it is extremely harmful politically. Add that to Moore's obvious lack of campaign organization and the ingredients are all there. Stick a fork in Moore, he's done.

    Of any of the candidates, King has the best chance of polling above his party's numbers. A party maverick, King says what he thinks and has hit a chord with voters with his tough-on-crime, pro-BC, anti-establishment message. Unlike the other candidates, King has stepped outside the party's box and is talking about the things that matter locally. It may be a close one, but King will take it.
    07/05/04 Travis
    Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
    How are the NDP going to go from 9% up to say 37% in order to win this seat? As for Moore and his so called comments on women, I am guessing this was his statement on abortion. If this is the comment that you raised, it was taken truly out of context. Anybody who acually takes the time to read his comment and than to look at the recent event in the United States, people would understand what Moore was saying. Moore may loose alot of votes, but the NDP are not going to take this seat.
    05/05/04 Thor
    Email: [hidden]
    Kwangyul Peck as our next MP? Give me a break. True, Moore has said some crazy things that will hurt his chances of getting re-elected. But then again, so has Kwangyul. When he ran against Svend Robinson in '93, it was a complete debacle. He undertook some of the nastiest campaigning in history and, when it got exposed on BCTV, came back to bite him big time. As a representative of the Korean Business Owners Association, Peck has said some things that are utterly bizarre. As well, he claims to be a party insider, and claims to have been an advisor to Paul Martin -- not very smart campaigning considering how poorly regarded Martin is in BC. Charley King and even James Moore will wipe the floor with him in debates and Peck's greatest challenge at this point is to be recognized as a legitimate contender. Don't forget folks, it is true that Kwangyul Peck has more experience than Charley King -- as a three-time loser! Kwangyul Peck has run three times and lost three times. And historically, he goes over like a lead baloon in PoCo, which is the bulk of the riding. It's King and Moore battling for first and second place. Personally, I think King will take it. But Kwangyul will be a distant third, though I do think that he has a good shot of getting his deposit back.
    03/05/04 Peter
    Email: [hidden]
    Peck is not necessarily a weak candidate, and with Martin's position that he wants a stronger Western pressence in his government, I think we will see a heavy Liberal push in BC when the election is called. I agree that Moore has some terrible attributes that will hurt him this election, but I am not sure that King will capitalize on those and win. He is still quite young and inexperienced - not unlike Moore when he was elected - whereas Peck has a much more extensive and broader background with government issues. Also, Peck, if elected, could represent a valuable cabinet seat if there are few Western Liberal MPs.
    29/04/04 RP
    Email: [hidden]
    King will win here. His latest large ads in the newspapers attacking Moore over his outrageous comments on women are yet another nail in his coffin. The ads also laid out King's positions including cracking down on crime. King is a product of his community. He is the hometown candidate as a contrast to Moore who is thought of being just another Ottawa Politician (ie slimey). You also have to give it to King. His campaign is everywhere and he is picking up the endorsements and support of influential groups. His most recent endorsement from the head of the Catholic Women's League is sure to be a boost. All of these local dynamics, including the weak Liberal candidate and a self-destructing Moore, couple with the polls show a three-place tie for first in BC means that King is set to be the next MP from this area.
    24/04/04 A.S.
    Email: adma@interlog.com
    Ah, all these postings, already. Regarding the PoCo-goes-koo-koo ruckus here and in the 2001 BC election site, there's one significant factor I'm considering: if we go by the reports, not only is James Moore the youngest MP, he's probably the first to have truly cut his political teeth through the medium of the internet message board, flamefests and all. Not that that's *bad* or anything--but it does give this posted mass of thrusting, parrying much-ado the dubious appearance of kindred-spirit solidarity and counter-solidarity.
    Looking beyond that, I'm suspecting that a lot of James Moore's self-destruct-mode quirks and foibles are lost on voters; and unless he pulls a Svend before writ time, the simple image of him as a hard-working caucus up-and-comer (and Cabinet potential) buoys him plenty. And yes, the seat's demographics *have* changed--maybe not as bible-belty as up the Fraser, or as solid-uppercrust as the North Shore, or as hyper-Asian as Richmond or Surrey; but it sure isn't the easy NDP swinger it was through the 80s federally, or the 90s provincially. Also to be factored in: Stephen Harper's stature as Western Canada native-son leader; the "Mr. Clean" image CPC has relative to the federal *and* provincial Liberals; and that tendency over the last few elections for Lotus Landers to gang up en masse in the Reform/Alliance camp after hemming and hawing in pre-writ polls. Chances are good that it'll be the same story, all over again--but yes, the great giddy unknown of Lotu! s Land Laytonmania, and what form it shall take, or what effect it'll have on the Conservatives, looms large. (The way it's being spun here, it's like we're headed for a 1988 BC state of affairs once again, where it's NDP vs Tory and the Grits are squeezed into superfluity. But please, folks, conduct your elections in your own turf, willya?)
    22/04/04 D.D.
    Email: [hidden]
    I'm ready to call this one for the NDP, despite the fact that it is the NDP, and despite the fact that they only got 9% in the last election. Moore is clearly in self destruct mode, many conservatives are sitting on their hands, and many prominent citizens in the communities of Port Moody and Port Coquitlam are expressing extreme anger toward Moore for being what they call an 'absentee MP' -- He rarely shows up at community events.
    As for the NDP, Charley King is a strong candidate who is taking the fight to Moore at every turn. He is getting a lot of local attention pointing out Moore's extreme views on women, his skipped votes, and his flip flops. And, King has been outspoken as 'fighting for the middle class' being tough on crime, and standing up for the west, which are key issues that previous NDP candidates ignored. He's media savvy, which is a rare gift for an NDP'er. From what I've seen of King, this isn't the same hapless crew that got 9% in the last election. He will win despite the party with his populist and moderate message.
    19/04/04 Travis
    Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
    This riding is going to stay Conservative. Moore may have some daming things about him coming out in the media, but you can not tell me that the NDP will go from 9% from the last election to taking this seat, the NDP will go up in this election, but not enough to take it. With the results from last election and the Liberals being done in the polls, I don't see how this will not stay Conservative.
    11/04/04 S. Goddard
    Email: sgoddard@shaw.ca
    I agree with the poster who said that Charley King will most likely win this riding, not because the NDP is so wildly popular here but because Moore is in self-destruction mode. Everyone is abuzz about the Frank Magazine containing some incredibly damning things about Moore and like someone on here has already said, the local media and the opposition are all over it. When it gets out in the local papers, Moore is toast. I have a feeling the people on here who are writing such gushing things about Moore are all Moore himself. It would certainly fit the pattern. A few months back, the Vancouver legal community was abuzz over the fact that Moore had sent some threatening emails under a fake hotmail account to his then girlfriend and she was considering pressing charges for uttering threats until she found out it was actually her boyfriend Moore who was threatening her. I suppose it's another one of his 'pranks' along the lines of the B&E and his jokes about "faggots" and "lesbians" pointed out in Frank Magazine. This is the same woman who the PC's were all backing for a nomination run against Moore. Is this how Moore treats his competitors? He threatens them? Moore has also posted on the Frank Magazine forum under the handle "4H" and on the Victoria Shamrocks Lacrosse forum under "james". In each forum, the same pattern exists of Moore looking for negative comments about himself and then countering them with wonderful gushing statements about how great he thinks he is. Apparently some mainstream journalists who over the past few years have written favourable comments in their stories about Moore are now mortified that he's posted these statements as "Endorsements" on his web site, particularly given the latest revelations in Frank Magazine. The person on here who says Moore is well liked and respected is way out to lunch. No one has really heard of him unless they're actually involved with the party. None of the Liberals or PC's have gone over to Moore. Sperril Chambers, Gunther Stall and the veteran PC crew were at the Liberal nomination meeting, rooting for Rick Marusyk to win. Since Peck won and they can't in good conscience support a train wreck like Moore, they're sitting this election out.
    08/04/04 BH
    Email: [hidden]
    I'm ready to call this one for Charley King, not so much the NDP. For all the reasons mentioned before, King will win on his own strengths. Moore's nail in the coffin? The latest issue of Frank Magazine has a profile of Moore where they discuss his extremist comments on abortion, his hateful jokes about gays on the internet, and a B&E charge and conviction he received when he was 17 years old. I've seen the article popping up all over the internet, a number of media people are pursuing the file. A Moore melt-down is happening, combined with VERY weak Liberal candidate and a strong moderate in King will mean another NDP MP in Ottawa
    07/04/04 Chris
    Email: [hidden]
    Anyone who says James Moore won't win here is crazy. Moore is LOVED in this riding ... hes incredibly popular and the combined PC/CA vote from the last election is nearly 58%. (And in case you're wondering... Moore has done an exceptional job of reaching out to former PCers)
    With the King campaign losing all its credibility before the writ is even dropped and the Peck campaign alienating many Liberal organizers, who have now jumped to the Moore campaign, this one will be an easy win for the Conservatives.
    01/04/04 HK
    Email: [hidden]
    While I never would have said this six months ago, the way things are shaping up, I’ll give this one to the NDP. Peck is a non-starter . . . he has no support (among those who can actually vote), and the Martin liberals are being ushered to the Moore camp, with the progressives gravitating toward King, whose platform seems to move beyond the usual left-right divide and steals some of the best stuff from all three camps. While the polling is relatively evenly split between the three parties, I’d say this is a riding where personalities will dominate over party lines. Moore is not fond of campaigning, by his own admission . . . but King, known as a real scrapper, seems to just thrive on it. And folks would be wise not to underestimate King’s ‘small’ campaign team . . . his campaign manager, although young, is a talented guy . . . and has developed something of a reputation for pulling off the improbable, earning the respect of even his opponents.

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