Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Vancouver Island North
Île de Vancouver-Nord

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:37 AM 6/23/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:36 PM 18/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Noor Ahmed
Catherine Bell
John Duncan
Jack East
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Pam Munroe

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Cariboo-Chilcotin (0.2%)
Philip Mayfield
Vancouver Island North (99.8%)
John Duncan

2000 Result/Résultats:
24,158 50.76%
11,899 25.00%
5,629 11.83%
2,940 6.18%
2,970 6.24%

(3/192 polls, 125/53321 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Vancouver Island North
(231/231 polls, 75105/75105 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
21/06/04 MP
Email: [hidden]
When John Duncan at a candidates forum ended up spouting off, as though it is party policy, that there are and were weapons of mass destructon in Iraq, and that the war was a valid one, he alienated himself enough that he doesn't stand a chance now, people who voted Alliance in this riding are not the kind of people who would vote conservative, and in this labour heavy riding, Catherine Bell, with strong ties and a high ranking position in the BCGEU, should have no trouble sneaking into a riding where the liberals have no hope in hell, and the greens are nowhere on the radar.
06/06/04 Observer from Ontario
Email: [hidden]
I expect a Duncan win - he is not exactly the most exciting MP but he will probably be the new Ministrer for Indian and Native Affairs, if the Conservatives win power - certainly a good reason to reelect him.
19/05/04 Anderson Carter
Email: andersontcarterAT@yahoo.ca
Like many ridings this year, VIN will be a tight one. There is a legitimate three-horse race, though the Libs don't have a good starting position. Following comments below, I read the past votes more as protest than 'conservative' per se. While the Comox Valley is largely a retirement community, Campbell River and points further north have a stronger union background which may come into play. The past three federal elections have occurred with the NDP in power provincially, which probably resulted in a backlash against the federal NDP. I predict an anti-Campbell boost will push the New Democrats over the top this year (prov. NDP polling at 43% to BCL 37% today).
29/04/04 Garth Brasseur
Email: [hidden]
It is a wonder that this riding is still being predicted for the Conservatives. Contrary to what has been reported earlier on this page, the NDP support in BC has been going up over the past month (it's been in the 30% range in the last three published polls) while the Conservative vote has been going down (to 23% in the most recent published poll). The NDP vote is highest on Vancouver Island while the Conservative vote is highest in the interior. While I agree that this is the most likely Conservative riding on the Island and the second least likely for the NDP, it makes me wonder about the predictions for Vancouver Island that this seat is being called at this stage when none of the other seats are being called. According to all published polls, the NDP is clearly ahead on the Island and they have no seats being predicted for them.
21/04/04 Mike H
Email: [hidden]
The riding has very different demographics than it had 20-40 years ago. It is a much older more conservative riding due to an influx of older retirees (the stereotype retiree from Alberta has a lot of truth to it). It has been designated as one of Canada's top 3 retirement destinations. This should mean that the NDP can't necessarily look to the past history to say they have a chance in the riding. Most of the Comox Valley's residents have lived there for less than 20 years.It like many ridings may depend on how larger issues unfold on the national stage.
19/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape20000@hotmail.com
The Conservative incumbant may not be everyone's cup of tea but the Liberals don't have much hope either. Western alienation has not gone away nor has the sponsorship scandal and in survey after survey huge numbers of BC voters say they will vote for anyone other than the Liberals (the other province with similar response is Quebec). Any challenge to a Conservative MP on Vancouver Island will come from the NDP. This riding (with a big chink of the mainland part of the riding) has the weakest NDP support, coupling that with deflated NDP support across the province from last month and this is safely in the Conservative column.
19/04/04 Mike D
Oh I see, while the NDP is "inexperienced", the Liberal candidate is "fresh young." Sounds the same to me. Truth is, if the Conservatives win one seat on Vancouver Island, this is it. This one is a two-way race, Conservatives vs. NDP.
12/04/04 Jeff J.
Email: [hidden]
I don't see the NDP being strong here, they've selected an inexperienced candidate who hasn't been high profile since the nomination. This will be a tight, two-way race between the Conervatives and the Liberals and could well swing to the Liberals. The incumbent Duncan is unpopular with municipal leaders for not working with them to access government programs, and after three terms has failed to deliver for the riding. With a fresh young candidate in Ahmed, the Liberals have their first chance since 1974 to take this riding.
05/04/04 Mike M.
Email: [hidden]
I don't know why this riding was predicted for the Conservatives. Its winnable for the NDP, the Liberals, or the Conservatives: for whichever party has the strongest candidate. I met with Noor Ahmed recently, and he is a very strong candidate. He is not young, optimistic, engaging, friendly, but is also working very hard. Many people who voted reform/alliance were voting in protest of Chretien's lack of attention to Western Canada, and these people can't necessarily be expected to vote Conservative. This riding will be close, but if I had to guess, I'd predict a victory for Noor Ahmed and the Paul Martin Liberals.
01/04/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding elected a Liberal in 1974, and due to the NDP's focus on urban areas, rural ones like this may vote for the "other" left-wing party. I think the Liberals may have an edge here, depending on future BC polling numbers. Martin wants to win seats here, this is one of the seats he may win.
29/03/04 Garth Brasseur
Email: [hidden]
I have read a lot of polling data about Vancouver Island lately. What I have seen would not make me predict any riding for a right-of-centre political party before a federal election is called.
24/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
In 1988 Van Isle was all NDP. Yes the NDP could win this, but not with John Duncan as an incumbent - he is popluar with the blue collar people and has likely the most support of any CPC MP among aboriginal people.
When he retires, then the seat becomes an NDP CPC fight.
This time, look for the Liberal vote to crater as election day rolls around. Small annecdote, Gerry Furney (mayor of Port Mcneil I think) was so impressed with Jack Layton at a Canadian Muni meeting that he asked if he would join the Reform party/Canadian Alliance.
20/03/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
I don't why this riding is being predicted for the CPC. It is at least a tossup if not leaning NDP. The NDP is set to at least double and probably triple its vote in BC compared to 2000. North Vancouver and the coast have historically been some of the most pro-NDP areas in the whole province. Every poll of BC provincial votong preferences shows the NDP doing way better on Vancouver Island than anywhere else in the province. This riding has to be considred very low hanging fruit for the NDP.
20/03/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
While I don't really know enough about this riding to make an outright prediction, I've just looked at a map of Vancouver Island North and it actually includes a large area of the BC mainland.
Dunno which party this helps the most, but it's worth mentioning.
18/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
Northern Vancouver Island has traditionally voted NDP through the 1970's and 1980's. Out of approximately 54,000 votes cast between the NDP and PC candidate in the 1984 election, the NDP incumbent obtained an approximate 700 vote victory. After the 1993 election Reform/CA held this riding with increased margins. While the NDP will do much better this time around it probably will not be enough and the CPC will retain the seat.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding is traditional NDP, but recently has been voting for the Alliance. the real question is have they been voting for the Alliance bcause it's a protest party, or because it's Conservative?

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster