|I just returned from a five day trip to Victoria and here are my observations after driving around talking and talking to people: There are far fewer signs around than in the last federal election. I don't why that is but maybe everyone is just fed up with politicians and politics. The NDP and Liberals appears to have the most signs out throughout town in general and are considered to be running neck and neck. I drove through most areas of the riding and based on the signs, here are my observations: the wealthiest areas of the riding which were former Tory "strongholds" are becoming strong Liberal strongholds this time: I drove through Uplands and the Anderson signs outnumbered the Wenham signs 3 to 1 at least. In Ten Mile Point, there are about 20 Anderson signs and maybe 5 Wenham signs. These areas used to support the old Tories in a big way. If the Tories can't win there, they won't win the riding. The NDP's signs are in greater number than Anderson signs by about 3 to 2 in Central Park, Fernwood, Quadra/Hillside. The Tories are a distant third in these areas. In South Oak Bay and Fairfield, I think the winner based on the lawn signs is between Remax and Sutton Group Realty! There are very, very few signs in these large areas which tells me there are still lots of undecided votes to be had. Of the few signs in these areas, I would say that the NDP has only very slightly more signs than Anderson. All in all, a tight race. The bad news for the Tories is that they do not appear to have any strongholds but the Libs and the NDP do. A Victoria journalist in the know I spoke to yesterday thinks the riding will go Anderson with Turner (NDP) in very close second. I will go with that prediction. BTW, I see that Stockwell Day has lawn signs up on Fort St. |
|Anderson has positioned himself as the last man between inshore oil exploration and some of the more rapacious energy ministers in his own party. The problem is that between the civil war in the Federal Liberal party and the imminent wreck of the Paul Martin Junior, Anderson has very little room to manoeuvre. All the teeth in his lobbyist-diluted endangered species legislation is in the husqvarnas and in an improbable Martin cabinet (not a sure thing by any stretch) he'd be even more ineffectual than he was under Chrétien. He'll benefit from some strategic NDP vote squeezing but there'll be way less Green vote parking. Victoria has sent NDP Brewin for a couple terms as I recall so it's not a big stretch to think that Turner might come up the middle or outright win straight up. Mayor Moon Beam (as Turner was not so affectionately known) got organized and caught Beresford's organization flat footed. He does have municipal credibility (as does Layton). The convervative candidate has a vanishingly small profile but will still attract the blue rinse / retired stockbroker vote. It's a tough call. The legacy of the Gordo proto-liberals casts a long shadow in this town and easily trumps the specter of a Harper majority. For some, this is just a warm up act for the upcoming provincial election. Ontario results will determine whether the NDP will be king makers or whether Steven "do not pay attention to the bigots behind the curtain" Harper will lead us back to the 19th century where life for the unhorsed and unwashed was nasty, brutish and short. Stay tuned and Gordo, have another drink, you'll need it as this will hopefully give you a preview of things to come.|
|The race in Victoria is very close. Momentum seems to be going to NDP, but there has always been a strategic vote dynamic here and Anderson could benefit from an "anything but Harper" trend. The volume of donations for, and grass roots campaigning by, David Turner is significant. The conservative candidate has alienated those voters who turned out to candidate meetings...very poor performance. Lawn signs in my neighbourhood are about 5:1 NDP but I'm always aware of those silent liberals in this community who are very wary of the conservative alternative.|
|The previous post under the name "BAS" has no bias at all in favour of the NDP! Actually, I think Anderson will win and maybe win handily. Disclosure: I am quite familiar with demographic analysis systems such as PSYTE which divides Canadian households into about 50 demographic "clusters" according to lifestyle, wealth, age etc. The Victoria riding demographics generally are dominated by the following groups: middle aged and older, wealthy, "cultured" couples and small families found in expensive, established neighbourhoods in urban areas ("Urban Gentry" with a sprinkling of "Canadian Establishment" and "Affluentials"), lower income retired folks (pensioners) living in urban apartments and condos ("High Rise Sunsets" and "Old Gray Towers"), students and educated lower income young singles ("University Enclaves", "Young Urban Intelligentsia" and "Young City Singles"), highly educated smaller, middle income, older families and empty nesters living in urban, single family homes ("Aging Erudites") and young, middle income professionals living in older homes and apartments ("Young Urban Professionals"). The bad news for the Conservatives is that none of these highly educated, urban voters are naturally drawn to the CPC policy platform. Unlike many of their suburban and country cousins, these people (rich and poor)are not very right wing and all of these groups oppose cutting programs like the CBC (last election there were actually lawn signs all over this town saying "I'm Voting CBC"). None of these people are particularly socially conservative and lean to the liberal side of things when it comes to abortion, military, cultural funding, gay rights etc. The older retired groups may not be socially liberal but they don't want cuts to social programs (or, heavan forbid, the CBC). The NDP has appeal to many of these voters but the better off voters in the above groups can't stand the NDP's "Robin Hood" policies (BTW - Harper scored some!
loud applause while he was here when he said he would oppose the NDP inheritance tax but his comments on the CBC will hurt him). Adding it all up, the NDP has a chance here but Layton's "soak the rich" statements will impair the NDP in this riding, just enough that more of the anti- Conservative/Alliance votes will go to Anderson than the NDP. Anderson is "green" enough so that the Green Party won't take too many votes away. All in all, I predict an Anderson "win" .|
|Okay if one takes a look at the results from the 2001 provincial election they will see that most of the provincial Green vote was from dis-illusioned former NDP supporters. So the claim that the Greens who got on average 15-20% in the provincial ridings making up the Lions share of the federal riding of Victoria will automatically go to the federal Green party in this election isn't a accurate argument. The Federal Green Party draws much of it's support from those who are fed up with politics and former Liberals and Progressive Conservatives so the NDP candidate really won't be as weakened by this as some suggest (This is why you have to pay attention to what I said Federal Green and Provincial Green are votes cast in such ways for completely different reasons). Sure the Greens are at 18% federally in Vancouver Island (according to Ipsos Reid) but think of it this way that is a sub-section of 1 fourth of 900 people (since the Ipsos-Poll was divided into Vancouver-Island Coast, two areas of the Lower Mainland and the interior). So what's the margin of error how accurate can it really be especially for a small party like the Greens? Also when people get closer to the election they will ask themselves, if they have any intention of voting Green, is there any point? And will my voice be heard in Ottawa by an effective representative? Even if the Greens win a couple seats those members will be very marginalized because they definitely won't win the 12 seats required for official party status. As for the Conservative Candidate he's a very weak candidate. The Conservatives would have been well advised to pick an experienced 'Red Tory' because Right-Wingers, young or old, are not popular in Victoria just ask Gordon Campbell.|
Now whom will the race be between? In my opinion it's between Turner of the NDP and Anderson of the Liberals. I think it's too close to call right now -- partially because of Anderson's experience as a Minister and MP but also because Turner is a good campaigner. Anderson is a better public speaker but Turner is a good communicator when talking one on one with people and that too is an important asset in a campaign. I think this vote may be one where the "get out the vote" initiatives are essential because it may just come down to a one or two thousand votes or even one or two hundred. That being said because of the continued un-popularity of the Federal Liberals and Provincial Liberals people may just say "a Liberal is a Liberal is a Liberal" meaning I give the edge to Turner.
|At this haflway point in the election, things are more clear. The Liberals are still higher in BC then they were at the last election, Therefore I think that they will be able to hold on to all their seats. Anderson is well experinced, and is seen as more honest. When questioned about Kyoto, we found out he drives a Toyota Corolla, rather then an SUV. Anderson will survive.|
|The polling results from the June 10, 2004 Ipsos-Reid poll are clear; Vancouver Island will not elect a single Liberal this time. David Anderson is toast and with him will go the newly Liberaled Keith Martin. Liberal support on the island is now within the margin of error of the Green Party. Anderson won the last election with a substantial NDP shift in the final days of the campaign over to support him. If there will be any further vote shifting this time it will be from the Liberals to the Conservatives to beat the NDP or vice-versa from the Liberals to the NDP to beat the conservatives.|
-Anderson's volunteerless office with the postered over windows
-Anderson's continued lack of a campaign web page (his constituency website has not even been updated since May 21)
-Anderson's continued inability to demonstrate anything close to influence over Liberal election strategy or policy
-Anderson's past retirement age makes people wonder what point he is trying to prove by running again
-Anderson's historical reliance on Erik Bornman (of the Basi scandal) and the UVic Young Liberal crew who are now inoperative having been disgraced, working hard provincially and incapable of organizing their traditional base
-Wenham's incredible lack of experience and young age (33)
-Wenham's total invisibility in the campaign
-The sign war that puts Turner way over the top
-The classical economic bend of Green Ariel Laid (London School of Economics trained) that is a pull to anyone but NDPers
-Turner's strong record in the Mayoralty in Victoria
-Turner's early campaign start with his campaign launched in February
-Turner's electoral machine that faltered in 2000 because of the obvious incoming loss but which is operating effectively in a massive office on the major commuter route to pull out non-traditional voters
-Provincial politics that show the Libearls free-falling is clearly impacting the federal vote in a riding where the Provincial NDP leader Carole James has her electoral base
|In 15 hours of door to door canvassing in the Oak Bay area of Victoria many (20%-30%) have volunteered they have voted Liberal in the past but would not do so this time around. In contrast, no one has said they are considering switching to the Liberals. Given that the combined PC and Alliance vote was less than 7% below the Liberal vote in 2000, a Conservative win is , therefore, probable.|
Is this possibly the reason why Victoria's Liberals have not released the results of their polling?
|I'm thinking a squeaker, with the Conservatives winning based on splitting the left votes... This is a town full of small business people who are almost universally voting CPC (not for Logan, just against Anderson) who are not going to discuss politics with people who aren't like minded for fear of alienating customers. The NDP's David Turner is not remembered fondly, and a lot of lefties who remember the last NDP government provincially will not support him. |
Anderson is most commonly described as "ineffectual and absent". He will continue to get his core vote of aspiring public servants.
My prediction is 15-20% Green, 20-25% NDP, 25-30% Liberal, and 30-35% CPC.
|One only needs to look at the lawn signage: Anderson's going back to the Hill again. Turner has been trying and failing to get office since he finished as Mayor, and the voters are sick of seeing his name. I've known Logan for close to 15 years; his politics are more like Keith Martin's than Stephen Harper's and as such should he ever be elected as a Conservative he'd never be anything more than a backbencher -- but the hard truth is that he will never be elected as a Conservative in any riding. |
But in Victoria, as in many ridings, people are voting against Harper or against Martin rather than for a particular candidate or party. Anderson's experience, broad support and (in Victoria) popular stance against offshore drilling will give him the win despite the anti-Martin sentiment.
|I think the Green vote will be heavily depressed by respect for David Anderson who is a strongly pro-Kyoto Minister of the Environment and one of the few cabinet ministers to work well with both Chretien and Martin.|
I also think the Green constituency association in this riding is divided after the defection of Russow, whom I considered to be an excellent lobbyist on international law questions, but entirely out of step with the "green tax shift" and "stop deforestation first" and "natural capitalism" (energy and materials conservation as source of wealth) analysis of the Green Party of Ontario and now the Green Party of Canada.
It's hard to imagine that Greens would not want David Anderson to remain Minister of the Environment if Martin pulls through with a minority. If Martin and Harper cut a deal for the Conservatives to support a Liberal budget in return for not implementing Kyoto, Anderson might resign and join the Green Party. Remember, that's how Reform got its toehold in the House via Deb Gray. That can't happen if Anderson is not in the House at all.
The Greens would be wise to cut a backroom deal with Anderson in this case.
|Bernard, your 10% prediction for the Greens seems unreasonably low. The Greens got 6% in Victoria in 2000 when province-wide the Greens got 2%. Now Ipsos-Reid has the federal Greens polling 13-14% in B.C., and you think they're only going to get 10% in a riding where last time they did 3x better than the provincial average? The fact that Russow (the leader) was the candidate in 2000 was no real advantage as party leaders of fringe parties rarely reap any special advantage on election day for being the party leader.|
Also, in the 2001 provincial election the Greens got 20% in Victoria Hillside, 18% in Oak Bay-Gordon Head, and 22% in Victoria Beacon Hill. I think it's anything but certain how Victoria will go, so I'm saying "No Opinion" at this point, but your 10% estimate for the Greens in Victoria is a very low-ball figure IMO. I can't see the Greens receiving only 10% of the vote in Victoria in this election, I think 15-20% is their bottom-floor based on local strength in the 2001 provincial election, based on them polling better than ever federally, and based on Victoria having been one of their strongest ridings Canada-wide in the 2000 federal election. Come election day we might see a four-way race in this riding, and at this point it's simply too close to call.
|The last post is wrong when it says that Wenham will do well in the well off parts of Victoria. If anything, driving through the richest parts of the riding, I would say Anderson signs are in much greater abundance than Wenham. Actually, in the last two federal elections there appeared more Reform/Alliance signs in those parts of town than Conservative this election. I think the NDP will have a strong finish but it won't be enough to win because the NDP wealth transfer tax will scare too many people away(I've talked to a lot of people in Victoria who feel this way). Yes, some people do hate Anderson but I've talked to just as many people who like him as well.|
|I believe this riding is too close to call. Anderson won in 1997 because Reform had a weak (too socially conservative) candidate, and won again in 2000 because the appetite for change wasn't strong enough. Now the appetite for change seems stronger in this riding, but the fact that southern Vancouver Island has become a four-way race (as evidenced by the fact that Greens are strongest here and Ipsos-Reid yesterday indicated the Greens were leading in two BC ridings) means the riding's in play. Strong provincial NDP votes here in the past have rarely translated to strong federal NDP votes in this riding, there's almost no correlation between the two. Turner is not a strong candidate for the NDP as he's a many-time loser (for mayor as well as for MP) and his name doesn't inspire confidence. Anderson is not very popular, he's won based on being the compromise candidate in the past. The Conservatives will do better here than in 2000, but not likely much better than in 1997. The Greens will put up a big fight, and having an economist as a candidate will play well for many Victoria residents and underscore how these are the "New" Greens, but won't do particularly well in the Uplands. This one seems like a roll of the dice to me.|
|So I have been back in Vic for a week now and have some comments about the race.|
Logan Wenham - young political insider that is just not the campaigner he needs to be to win. Also the CPC is not selling well in this riding. He has been relatively under the radar. I expect he will do well in Oak Bay and the rich parts of Gordon Head. With the old angry white retirees behind him (and that is who was there at a breakfast for him, Gary Lunn and John Koury at the Union Club - named for the faction wishing union with Canada, a huge mistake for us in BC in the first place), he should get 25%
Ariel Lade - lots of signs, some evidence of campaigning but in a tight race he is getting squeezed. His votes are going to Turner by a huge margin. I am guessing a bad green result with only 10% of the vote.
David Anderson - boy do people hate him here. This man should be sending thank you cards to Stockwell Day each and every day to thank him for scaring the people of Victoria enought to vote for him instead of David Turner. I have run across a single middle aged person in this town that says they will vote for him (the town is full of Uvictims that graduated in the 80s). 20% and not a vote more for him - think of him as dot come stock in freefall (and there are many of his constituents that still wonder where he was when CCRA bankrupted them)
David Turner - he has the winning the signs on real lawns war by a huge margin over everyone else. He seems to be have the volunteers getting to the doors and phones in the riding. His office is right on a main commuter route. His campaign manager is driven and not stopping short of winning (as opposed to some real lackadasical ones for the other candidates)
40% - this will be convincing win for the man, enough so that people will think of Vic as safe NDP turf
|I disagree with the previous posts saying the NDP will win. The NDP will not win. A previous post said that the riding will go NDP because provincially the two Victoria ridings had a strong NDP vote. That analysis leaves out the fact that those two provincial ridings (Victoria Beacon Hill Hillside) exclude most of the upscale eastern areas of this riding which don't tend to vote NDP provincially or federally. I don't think Oak Bay, Uplands, Ten Mile Point etc. etc. will vote NDP for the reason that voters there never cared for NDP tax policy (e.g. estate taxes) and this will impact the overall vote in the riding. Having said that, this riding is not right wing enough to vote for the present Conservative Party (popular 1970's Prog.Cons. Alan Mckinnon did win but under Joe Clark) leaving incumbant David Anderson to once again take this riding (even though during every election it is said he will be in for a tough fight).|
|I believe that the Green Party of Canada could win the Victoria seat. The reason I think this is possible is because the Victoria race has often been close, and was extrememly close between the Liberals, NDP and Green Party in the last Provincial election. A difference of only 2-7 percent could mean the difference between a win or not. Victoria, in general, tends to be a community of Green-minded people. I have heard a great deal about the Green Party lately in the media and have seen a lot of lawn signs around the city. It should be a very interesting contest! |
|I believe that this riding will go Conservative for the following reasons: 1)A combination of Adscam, unpopularity of BC Liberals and a perception that Anderson is arrogant and distant from his constituents will drastically reduce votes for the Liberals; 2)A resurgant NDP with a recognized name in David Turner may take away significant votes from the Liberals and Greens, but Turner will also scare away some who think he is too far to the left; 3)The Conservative candidate Logan Wenham is a fresh face (unknown quantity) in the Victoria riding. I think Logan has the potential to take votes away from both the Liberals and NDP with his socially liberal stance (read non-religious), while keeping the right wing vote with his economic conservatism. He is an excellent debater, and if he gets enough exposure in the media should sway some of the undecided his way.|
|With the NDP's BC support heavily concentrated on Vancouver Island, this seat like the other 5 VI seats is in their sights and well within reach, cabinet minister or no. This would have been a slam-dunk for the New Dems with Charley Beresford, but the NDP numbers being what they are on the Island, the current unpopularity of the BC Liberals, and the likelihood that the NDP will concentrate resources on these six seats, David Turner is still well positioned to take out Dave Anderson.|
|The Conservatives in BC are in freefall, for seemingly inexplicable reasons (given the huge popularity of Stockwell Day and the Alliance in 2000). Last Ipsos-Reid poll put the Tories at 23% in BC, well back in third-place in the province. With those dismal numbers, clearly in BC no incumbent Liberal or NDP MP is in much danger from a Conservative challenger, least of all a Cabinet Minister. David Anderson will be re-elected. |
|With polls putting the Conservatives in third place in BC, from a comfortable 50% win in 2000 as the Alliance party, Victoria is just not on the map for the Conservatives anymore.|
Polls show almost a perfect 3-way split for support for the main parties in BC. But with regional concentrations pointing to victories elsewhere for the Liberals and Conservatives, look for Victoria to become on of the NDP's gains in an Island sweep.
With the NDP making a massive recovery this year and the fact that Anderson is seen as a Martin-crony, David Turner will be the next MP for Victoria.
|Till the BC polls show some consistent and coherant pattern, I'm moving to park my prediction on Logan Wenham...I was somewhat started by the suggestion that the Conservatives "blew" it by nominating him...looking at his website, he seems quite a presentable candidate and a good contrast in youth and energy with David Anderson, who first ran in 1968.|
Regional polls now show the Liberal running first in BC, which I take it is a consequence of too few voters in BC being called and hence a very, very large margin of error. In BC more than most places is a pattern of voters being "364 day a year Liberals", the 365th day being election day!
Wenham needs to sweep Oak Bay and split Victoria, with a strong NDP candidate eating into Liberal votes there...that is certainly a liklihood with the NDP running much better than in 2000. As always, a fun riding to watch...I have two aunts who live there who I hope will provide some of the campaign on the streets flavour to help my predictions once the writ is issued.
|I lived in Victoria for over 12 years and for most of that time was involved in politics. The federal Victoria riding provides a more stable base of analysis than any other in Canada as the boundary has not changed for at least (maybe more) two redistributions. Well, as stable as BC politics can be ;-)|
A lot of people have made a lot of comments here and although I left Victoria in 1999, I tend to keep an eye on the riding and after a lot of the comments posted here - don't really explain that strange place known as Victoria.
Pure voting results are as follows:
PC - MacKinnon - 28058
ND - G. Brewin - 15344
Lib - Monoghan - 7766
PC - MacKinnon - 25058
ND - Blencoe - 17088
Lib - Corbett - 7145
PC - MacKinnon - 24469
ND - J. Brewin - 20480
Lib - Hefflefinger - 6702
ND - J. Brewin -22399
PC - Young - 17660
Lib - O'Connor - 12617
Ref - Volb - 4956
Grn - Porcher - 1037
Lib - Anderson - 21402
Ref - Hunt - 15981
ND - J. Brewin - 8091
PC - Collins - 5982
NP - Mavrow - 4034
Grn - Morton -1125
Lib - Anderson - 18130
Ref - Taylor - 15393
ND - Judd - 11419
PC - King - 3589
Grn - Russow - 2806
CAP - Burchill - 353
Lib - Anderson - 23730
CA - Hallsor - 16502
ND - Turner - 7243
PC - Burchill - 3629
Grn - Russow - 3264
MP - Beyer - 863
Hopefully, the point of posting on this site is to provide details that will help people understand a particular riding. Those stats/names hint at what has happened there.
1. The Brewin divorce and Judd's involvement but not the bitter nomination fights that crossed municipal/provincial/federal boundaries.
2. David Turner's poor showing that the ND spin was that their voters went to the Libs and somehow they will come back "home" when he runs this time.
3. The National Party's rise and fall and the CAP's candidate 1997 failure and crossing to the PCs.
And is with most analysis based on numbers, the factions within a party are ignored - MacKinnon was a serious Red Tory - of course a large portion of his vote went Liberal.
PS - and don't forget the national factors that backdrop each of those elections.
|At this early stage it's difficult to evaluate how things stand in this riding. Several interesting variables make a prediciton difficult. It's unclear how an unpopular provincial Liberal government (especially on the Island) will impact the federal Liberal brand. There is also the sponsorship scandal (and other minor Liberal transgressions) that will be a drag for Anderson. However, the Conservatives don't seem to be doing as well (at least yet) as the old Alliance or Reform parties used to do on the Island, may not be in a position to benefit from the Liberals difficulties. The PC vote in most Island riding was pretty low last time around that even if most of the old PCers and Alliance voters go over the Conservatives its not clear that that will be enough to seriously challenge for the seat. The NDP look like they will be up significantly (mostly due to the fact that they won't have to contend with an unpopular NDP provincial government as was the case in 1993, 1997, and 2000), but its unclear if they will be able to poll enough to be in contention for the seat. If a prediciton has to be made, I would lean towards Anderson squeaking back in, with either the Conservatives or NDP as outside possibilitie.|
|Did the Tories ever blow this one by choosing Logan Wenham - the guy sounds like a Green Party member and looks like an NDP protester. Where the heck did they find this guy? From Tory friends, I hear that the Alliance rallied behind one candidate at the nomination and it was...Logan Wenham. Yikes, pretty sad if that's the best they can do. Logan beat out Faith Collins, a blue Tory who probably would have given Anderson a real run for his money. I think she was the former mayor of Oak Bay, and looked more the part. I would have liked to vote Conservative, but I'm not voting for that closet-NDPer Wenham. It's another game of "best of the worst" and it's gonna be David Anderson.|
|Depending on a couple of things, I think this riding could be a tight three way race, leading to a Conservative win.|
Much of the Liberal win in 2000 was based on a collapse of the NDP vote. It's reasonable to assume the NDP will poll significantly higher, and take votes from the Liberals.
Another factor is that the Victoria riding in its provincial forms are Liberal now, but likely won't be after the next provincial election. People against the Campbell Liberals agenda may vote against the federal Liberals here, just because of the provincial farm team's tactics.
If all of the former PC and Alliance vote is together (which is highly possible given that the former Alliance candidate was a long-time PC member), they stand to benefit the most, while the Liberals stand to lose the most.
The NDP will likely do well with David Turner, but perhaps not well enough to win.
Also, the Reform party came within 200 votes of taking the seat in 1997 with an unknown candidate.
Here's how I'd figure the numbers...
|One difference between the last two elections and the next is that in 1997 and 2000, federal Green Party leader Joan Russow ran here, getting around 3,000 votes each time. Since 2000, Russow has stepped down as federal leader and left the Green Party for the NDP. If other Green supporters do the same, this may firm up support for NDP candidate Turner in his second try. And as others have noted here, it's not certain that the majority of PC supporters in this urban riding will go to the Alliance. They may vote Liberal, NDP, or even Green.|
Although the NDP will rebound, and possibly eclipse the Tories to finish second, they still have a long way to go to catch up with Anderson. I think Anderson will win again. He has a reputation as the environmental conscience of the federal Liberals. Many people who might otherwise vote NDP or Green will think twice about whether they want to contribute to Anderson's defeat, out of fear that the next Environment Minister would be much less serious about environmental protection.
|Paul Martin commited political suicide in appointing candidates in BC. BC is a province that is much more populist than anywhere else in Canada.|
Anderson got elected in the last elections because of the collapse of the NDP in BC - I lived in Victoria for many years and know many people there. Many of them have voted for Anderson, but done so not because they like him (and for sitting MP, it is amazing how unpopular he is as a person) but because there was a strong dislike of electing the Allaince/Reform (and in 1993 PC) - he rode a public backlash against the right, people that normally would have been voting NDP held their noses and voted Liberal.
Anderson was a failure as BC Liberal leader - in an election that should have seen the party move forward on his youth and disatisfication of the Socreds, the party went backwards. And the BC Liberals are not dramatically popular in Victoria, so focusing on them at any point will likely lose him votes.
The NDP is resurgent in BC, Martin is the head of tired and corupt government,people want a change. David Turner followed by Logan Wenman (who will be an MP in Ottawa within 10 years though not from Victoria) and Anderson third.
|The Erik Bornman effect will be felt strongly in the Victoria Federal Election. Not only has Erik Bornman fallen from grace as the BC Liberal Campaign Manager (under campaign chair Mark Marisen) but his strong ability to organize for David Anderson will be sorely missed by this candidate with no real base in his riding. Being investigated for offering a bribe is not the kind of hting a coherent campaign team survives easily. Anderson is the candidate to beat and David Turner's strong ethical profile should have not trouble doing it.|
|Hey DL...On the Green Party of BC, well, in the 2001 provincial election they got 12.39% of the vote...that is pretty close to the 12% in the latest poll. In Ontario, the Greens tripled their vote in the last provincial election and I see them as on the upswing, albeit, they are far from winning a seat. I;ve sen several poll showing them gettign near to 10% in BC and think it might happen...no one is taking them on so they can seek theri support with impunity. |
I think the NDP will increase their vote from historic lows from 1993-2000 but am much less sure that they will go back to being preminent in BC. Frankly, 18% would be my gut feeling and a reasonable increase over 2000...a rise in the Greens will hurt the NDP and possibly some Liberals as well.
On Victoria, I am inclined to believe that Anderson will win, with the Conservatives second. One of his staffers was fingered for knowing about the Abscam fund and (tongue in cheek) he might be criticized for a lack of energy in getting some of that boodle for his constituents rather than allowing it to be wasted on so many liberal ad agencies in Montreal.
Nevertheless, the Conservative vote has already more or less united in Victoria in the 2000 election and there is quite a gap between them and the Liberals. I see him winning again...maybe by 8-10% or so.
|Nick, I don't know what downward spiral you are talking about. In 2000 the NDP took 11% of the vote in BC. Every poll in the last month and a half has shown NDP support in BC in the 20-30% range. The only exception was one Ipsos-Reid poll with a minute sample size in BC that had the NDP at 18% but also had a ridiculously high Green vote (12%) that will inevitably melt away to nothing come election day. The NDP is bouncing back to historic support levels in BC and Victoria is one of the places it will come up in spades.|
|Polls show a downward sprial for the NDP in BC. Those New Democrats are moving to the Liberals, I doubt they'd go Conservative. This only solidify's the Liberal's position in Victoria, they should easily re-take the riding now.|
|David Anderson ran for premier of the province, he is a veteran, he is an olympic and Pan-Am medalist for rowing. He has served his province, his city, his party, and his country for years. He easily brushed off the 'slush fund' scandal. Every election, many predict that Dave will be defeated, but he always wins with a comfortable margin. Against the young and inexperienced Logan Wenham and again against David Turner, he should win this riding again.|
|Victoria is trending strongly NDP. In the catastrophic 2001 BC provincial election, the two Voctoria seats were the only two seats in BC (other than the two held by the NDP) that even came close to going NDP with the BC Libs winning each by less than 100 votes. If the NDP almost won while losing across the province by a 58-22 margin, it shows the extent to which Victoria is turning into NDP-style inner city territory. Anderson has never been all that personally popular. He was just in the right place at the right time when the NDP was unpopular provincially and the Alliance was too extreme right for Victoria. There is no place where the BC Liberals are hated as much as in Victoria. This backlash will drag Anderson down the drain - esp. since he has been quite open about how much he agrees with 100% of the policies of the ultra rightwing Campbell government.|
|It has been rightly pointed out that there is much anti-Liberal fury that will hurt Anderson, who's *somewhat* vulnerable given that he's a cabinet minister.|
However, consider the demographics of Victoria. It's among the areas of BC to be split evenly along left/right lines; witness the dogfights in two of the provincial ridings in the 2001 election that are in this riding that went to recounts.
As a result, any anti-Anderson vote will fall equally to the NDP and CPC, unless either can produce a galvanizing or particularly attractive candidate, a la Broadbent. They won't. The Libs will win.
|Tough to say - the only reason this seat still belongs to David Anderson is because the NDP backed him last time in droves. Logan (the CPC Candidate) is a friend of one of my best friends and a really nice guy, but not the calibre it will take to unseat a cabinet minister. I guess this riding will probably stay Liberal - because the NDP support is not as strong as their people like to think it is, people in BC still remember bingogate, the fudgeit budgets and the casino scandal - voters here may not be the most stratigic, but they're not going to make the mistake of voting NDP again anytime soon.|
|I do not envy the choice people have in Victoria. None of the nominees is any great shakes, but here is why I am saying NDP|
The NDP have won this before and the party is better shape here than the rest of BC.
Most of the PC vote here in 2000 was from the Orchardistas - I suspect they are going to vote NDP and not for Brian Mulroney redux and his party.
Greens should be factor here, but I suspect Mayor Moonbeam will get those votes (actually I would not surprised if some CPC types voted Turner to get rid of Anderson and get Turner out of Victoria).
The CPC should have been on bended knee and begged for Alan Lowe to run for them.
|The Liberals obtained 28.8% and 27.6% of the B.C. federal vote in the 1997 and 2000 elections respectively.|
Ekos Poll - Feb.27, 2004
Ipsos-Reid Poll - March 8, 2004
Granted, these polls have high margins of error and are seemingly fluid.
Nevertheless, it appears that the Liberals will obtain at least the same level of B.C. support that they obtained in the previous two elections and are likely to retain their current holdings, similar to the NDP.
|Though I agree with Ian King's prediction, I would like to point out that Anderson ran and lost in Cowichan--Malahat--The Islands in 1979.|
I think Anderson will survive due to a combination of the facts that the Conservatives are unlikely to make any gains on the Island and I don't think the NDP will be able to surmount their massive deficit from the last election.
|Liberal hold for now. Like Nepean-Carleton, a winnable conservative riding is not so winnable with a weak candidate, out of a nomination race that had many quality people. I'd be interested to hear from conservatives or others info on what happened in that race (like Ghoris wrote about below). The NDP, if they really do pick up will have a chance, but I suspect Anderson as a cabinet minister may survive.|
|I'll go out on a limb and call this one Liberal. Anderson was the only Liberal to increase his margin of victory in 2000 even as his co-partisans struggled. There are a couple of reasons for this: First, Anderson is a skillful campaigner, having only lost his seat once (1975 provincial election.) Second, his opponents: on the left, he faced the NDP's David Turner, who had a troubled and unproductive spell as Victoria mayor in the early '90's; on the right; the Canadian Alliance's Bruce Hallsor underestimated both Anderson and the federal Liberals' desirability in a government town. |
This time around, Anderson again faces Turner; his Conservative opponent is a thirtysomething EA to Saanich MP Gary Lunn -- who has already insinuated that Anderson and Turner are past their prime. Not a smart move in a riding with a large over-60 population! Turner is from the NDP's hard-left wing, which might send moderates over to Anderson. Less-than-stellar candidates against a veteran politician who still carries influence at the Cabinet table points to Anderson coming out ahead, although by a smaller margin than before.
|Anderson is certainly vunerable: A sucession of weak mandates, the Sponsership Scandel, various other scandels he's been involved in over the years, the fact that "Liberal" has become a dirty word in Vancouver Island recently, the NDP doing a Lazarus (or should that be a Kerry?) in BC recently... and so on and so forth.|
However, he's been targeted in the past and pulled it off so why not now?
I'm leaning towards an NDP win here but the fact that Anderson has suvived again and again means that I can't really be sure right now.
Things will (hopefully) become clearer when Martin calls the election.
|Tough to call. Anderson is seen as being highly vulnerable because of the scandals plus the fact that he's seen as being an absentee landlord - he's now an Ontario resident for tax purposes. I was a guest on a CFAX political panel two weeks ago and the amount of fury being directed at the Liberals by callers was unbelievable. Plus the Campbell Liberals are *hugely* unpopular in the Victoria area.|
It's really hard to tell what effect a vastly improved NDP vote will have on the seat. If you talk to Conservatives, they'll tell you that Anderson was only saved by the collapse of the NDP vote in 2000. If you talk to Liberals, they'll tell you that the only reason the Alliance came close in 2000 was because the NDP vote collapsed. I suspect that the NDP will draw votes from both camps.
The Conservative nomination featured a very crowded field. They ended up nominating one of the weakest possible candidates - a 30-something EA to Gary Lunn. Apparently it came down to former Alliance members supporting 'one of their own', and it appears that there are a lot of divisions in the Conservative organization in Victoria, with some former PCs saying they won't lift a finger for the nominee. This could turn it into a two-way Liberal-NDP race.
|Historically this seat has been either Liberal or Tory. A red Tory previously held this seat from 1972 to 1988. The NDP managed to win this seat for the first time in 1988 when it captured 37% of the federal vote in the province. Thereafter, it has been held by the Liberals whose strength primarily lies in urban areas. Second place finish will be fought out between the CPC and the NDP.|
|Game over for David Anderson. Too tainted by scandal, he would be well advised not to run again. The NDP is running a former Victoria mayor, David Turner, who will win whether Anderson defends the seat or not.|
|This will be a close battle between the Liberals and the NDP. The NDP are running former Victoria mayor David Turner, and they are polling in the 25-30% range in BC. This combined with the negative effects of the Sponsorship Scandle on the Liberal Party makes David Anderson very vulnerable. Victoria will be a riding to watch!|