Election Prediction Project
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Western Arctic
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:12 PM 6/18/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:35 PM 17/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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Dennis Bevington
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Ethel Blondin-Andrew
Sean Mandeville
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Chris O'Brien

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Western Arctic (100.0%)
Hon. Ethel Blondin-Andrew

2000 Result/Résultats:
5,580 45.34%
3,312 26.91%
2,168 17.61%
1,248 10.14%
0 0.00%

Western Arctic
(95/95 polls, 24589/24589 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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15/06/04 Matthew Hammond
Email: elektro_matty@yahoo.ca
This riding will surprise many. Here, the Conservatives failed to nominate a candidate - the riding in the country where they failed. Thus, the anti-Liberal vote will tip this already left-leaning riding into the NDP camp.
01/06/04 Robert
Email: [hidden]
From what I remember of my time in the North, Ethel is everywhere - so chalk up Western Arctic in the Liberal column
24/04/04 Garth Brasseur
Email: [hidden]
The NDP have nominated Dennis Bevington to run again in the election. He is a well-respected former mayor of Fort Smith. He is known as an environmental activist but is knowledgeable about most issues related to the North. However, he is not a well-known aboriginal leader and that is probably what the NDP needed to win the riding. While the Conservatives have not as yet nominated a candidate, it is unlikely that they will get most of the "progressive" conservative vote from the last election. Failing the nominiation of a well-known aboriginal candidate by the Conservatives, this election will be a two-way race, between the NDP and the Liberal candidates. The Liberal incumbent, while in cabinet, is not widely considered as a strong candidate, but there has been a long-standing perceived need to have a government member in aboriginal communities while land claims are being negotiated. That being said, there may be a consolidation of the opposition to the Liberals around Dennis Bevington as the candidate who is viewed as her main competition. If that happens, look for this riding to be close.
30/03/04 Garth Brasseur
Email: [hidden]
It is difficult to predict who is going to win this riding (or Nunavut for that matter) without knowing who the candidates are. Personalities and community connections count so much more than in Southern Canada. While the vote in Yellowknife might involve some party loyalty (more so to the NDP and Liberals than Conservative in my opinion), there is precious little of that even in the city. In most of the rural areas of the riding, this is even less so (there is some party loyalty to the Conservative Party in Hay River). If the NDP or Conservatives can find an aboriginal candidate with a network throughout the territory, you can basically throw out past voting patterns. On the other hand, if neither of them does so, then the advantage is clearly with the Liberal incumbent.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I think the Liberals will just edge out the NDP here. With the lack of provincial parties at the territorial level, this territory has tended to vote with the Government.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This battle will be interesting, but I think the Liberals have the edge here. The NDP and Conservatives should both have good showings, but I feel that the Liberals are going to edge them both out at the end of the day.

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