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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

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31/03/04 Matthew
Email: [hidden]
Ed Broadbent is a well respected politician for all sides of the spectrum, and is suddenly turning Ottawa-Centre into a hot NDP riding. Expect Ed to win it, but by no huge landslide.
31/03/04 Honest Abe
Email: [hidden]
The race in Ottawa Centre is truly a match between heavyweights. One for the ages and one that will be closely watched today. I assume most respondents on this race are out of the loop, or have never been in the loop. First, since the race is still very early, who can predict the outcome? Secondly, both Richard Mahoney and Ed Broadbent have erected many lawn signs in their respective core constituencies. Thirdly, both teams appear to be working very hard on the ground. Having said all that, when the race truly heats up, one thing is certain: Paul Martin will significantly best Jack Layton; leaving a close race to be won by Richard Mahoney.
30/03/04 Rebecca
Email: [hidden]
Look, here's what it comes down to. Yes, Ed Broadbent is a strong candidate (though age is weakening him) but on election day, people are going to realize that a vote for Ed is a vote for Jack Layton, and nobody really wants that. Richard Mahoney is a much better candidate for the riding. People understand that the Liberals are in some hot water right now but they're wiggling out of it. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Vote Mahoney.
29/03/04 GJJ
Email: [hidden]
This riding will go to the New Democrats on election night. Broadbent is hugely popular and working the riding hard. I attend Carleton University and he has held three events there in the last three months. The latest was at Roosters' Cafe two weeks ago with Jack Layton, which was so packed that people were turned away. Nonetheless, about 50 students continued to huddle around the front doors and peer through the side windows. Mahoney, in contrast, has had no presence on campus.
Broadbent's last two partisan meetings also featured very strong turnouts with crowds of 1,000 and 600 respectively. The man has presence and is wiping the floor with Mahoney in the sign war.
25/03/04 Somebody in Ottawa
Email: [hidden]
This just in... March 25th "gumdrops" on Pierre Bourque's Newswatch at www.bourque.org:
"Lib & Tory insiders are privately conceding that NDP candidate Ed Broadbent has the Ottawa-Centre riding all but locked up, effectively explaining why Ottawa yakster Lowell Green passed up the opportunity to run there for Team Harper, but leaving Martin man Richard Mahoney in a bit of a bind ... "
Now here's a source that should move this riding into the NDP win column.
Editor's Note (more like an Ottawa insider joke): Please, anyone can get a "rumour" on to Bourque. Almost everyone on this panel has done that before...LOL.
25/03/04 Somebody in Ottawa
Email: [hidden]
Actually, the Liberals won this riding provincially with an 11,000 vote margin over the second-place NDP. Strategic voting accounted for a good deal of that wide margin, but it didn't steal the seat away from the NDP.
Regardless of that, it's a whole new ball game with Broadbent in the race. Liberals are openly telling NDP canvassers they intend to vote for Broadbent. Conservatives are publicly talking about how their numbers show Broadbent's in the lead. The man's a political icon and it's showing in the polls, the lawn signs, and the growing number of little orange "Ed!" buttons people are wearing in public.
The only way this seat isn't going NDP is if Layton tanks during the general election or the Liberals manage to convince everyone that Stephen Harper is evil-incarnate and that and the only way to stop him is by voting Liberal (which I don't think they'll be able to pull off this time because Martin's so right wing himself and his team just isn't up to the job).
Time to call this one for the NDP. The view from the ground in this riding makes it clear that this race is not "too close to call" today.
24/03/04 Todd S.
Email: [hidden]
Ed Broadbent will wipe the floor with Paul Martin apologist Richard Mahoney. One almost has to feel pity for Mahoney, who's been working the riding for years waiting to jump into the House and, almost assuredly, into Martin's cabinet. But voters tend to exhibit a natural inclination toward voting for leaders or even former leaders (eg. Joe Clark in Calgary Centre in 2000; John Turner in Vancouver Quadra in '84) and they will defer the respected Ed Broadbent in this race.
20/03/04 Chris
Well, like last person says, even the conservative polls agree the NDP will win this riding. Ottawa-Centre has always been a riding with tight two or three way race, usually ending up with the Liberals winning, with the NDP on occasion. But with the Liberals narrowily winning in the provincial election in Ottawa-Centre, Ed Broadbent's presence has given the NDP it's edge to secure victory in this riding.
20/03/04 BCP
Email: [hidden]
Not sure what out Liberal friend is smoking but to call this one of the safest Liberal seats in the country with Ottawa Vanier and Glengary Prescott Russell next door (not to mention Aylmer) seems to point to some over confidence. In fact, Broadbent signs far out number Mahoney and I've heard many complaints about Mahoney's lack of organization - including failing to deliver ordered signs.
Word is that the NDP wins a by-election easily and the Mahoney has a chance in a general election. Right now the Libs are behind in riding polls but it is a riding to watch for the enxt few months.
19/03/04 P. Kelly
Email: [hidden]
Franko Zaza is a wishful thinker. This is not the safest liberal seat in the country. In the last election when the liberals did expand their popular vote, they only scored 39% here. In this urban seat, the threat has always come from the NDP. This time its from NDP patriarch, Ed Broadbent...a living saint from the left. If Ed Broadbent doesn't take this seat with 55-60% of the vote, I would be stunned.
19/03/04 Vicky
Well I live here and I certainly see the momentum swinging Ed's way. I see way more Broadbent signs than Mahoney signs in pretty much every neighbourhood in the riding and I keep hearing stories about strangers stopping folks who wear Ed buttons to say "I'm voting for Ed too!". Ed will have to work hard, just like any candidate, but I think this riding's going back to the NDP.
19/03/04 Gerry
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
My aunt lives in this riding and she's a die-hard Conservative. Yet, she is likely to vote for Broadbent. The man is immensely popular. Add to that, the polls currently show the NDP about twice their support in the last election. Even without Broadbent, the NDP could have put up a strong fight in this riding. This is a relatively safe Liberal riding but anyone who says "it's the safest in the country" should get their head checked.
17/03/04 Franko Zaza
Email: [hidden]
I suggest the people who think Ed Broadbent has a chance of winning this riding do not live or have visited my home riding in a long time. I’m a Conservative and I’m telling you this is the safest Liberal riding in the country -- Liberal's win provincially and federally by a margin of 10,000 votes. Liberal Richard Mahoney’s lawn signs are already everywhere in Ottawa-Centre. An humiliating defeat for the NDP and Jack Layton in Ottawa-Centre.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: Thebigeape2000@hotmail.com
It's going to be interesting and it's going to be a tough fight, but we're both fairly sure that this will be an NDP win in the end. Ed's well known and this riding does have quite a bit of NDP support (in comparison to other Ottawa area ridings). Also the lack of an incumbant also helps the NDP.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Ed Broadbent is "THE" star candidate, he could win virtually everywhere. He's respected by all, even conservatives. Even without him I'd still predict a NDP victory. I would not be surprised with a 60%+ victory.
16/03/04 JGH
Email: [hidden]
This one is an interesting case. The "byelection" has been "called" for "November 29th", so candidates have their signs out already. Well, at least the NDP and Liberals since the Tories haven't nominated anyone yet. I can tell you that, to date, the sign war is being won massively by Ed Broadbent. Mind you, this is in Centretown, and I imagine over in Westboro, the results are more favourable to the Liberals.
Ordinarily, this is a locked riding for the Liberals. The balance between the urban core and the bourgeois suburbs keeps the Conservative and NDP votes low enough that the Liberal can safely scamper through. The Ed factor, however, threatens to completely upset this equation. I know not a small number of Conservatives who will vote NDP on the basis of Ed's personal appeal.
I predict NDP here. If the rumours of Lowell freaking Green running for the Conservatives are true, I predict an even bigger NDP win.
16/03/04 NDP Newbie
Email: [hidden]
The NDP is running Ed Broadbent in a riding where the NDP is reasonably popular. Ed is spending a lot of time and energy to understand issues that are important to the citizens of this riding and is running a spectacular online campaign.
With Liberal incumbent Mac Harb being promoted to the Senate, the Lieberals should cut their loses and try to focus on preventing rural Eastern Ontario defeats to the Conservatives.
15/03/04 S Meades
Email: [hidden]
This is another definite NDP pickup. Bringing Broadbent back from reitrement was a major coup, and the campaign is up and running. The Liberals should save their money and put their resources in other ridings, like in Atlantic Canada, or Southwest Ontario where they actually stand a chance of beating their opponents.
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
Internal polling in this riding shows that when voters are presented with voting Liberal or NDP, the two are tied. When presented with voting for Ed Broadbent or Mahoney, Broadbent wins with 54%. Even Conservative pollsters are predicting a Broadbent win in Ottawa Centre (as stated in the Hill Times).

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