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Ottawa Centre

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

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29/04/04 The Insider
Email: [hidden]
Dear Dean: As the Insider, I can predict 3-things in Ottawa Centre: 1) A close race; 2) Richard Mahoney will win; and 3) Red Tories and Progressive Conservatives will be voting for Mahoney in large numbers. Imagine: Graham Bird, former PC provincial candidate and Olympic hero, Greg Joy, Bruce Anderson and Nancy Jamieson and the "coup" this week, David Small as Co-Chair of the Richard's Campaign. Your anlaysis is wrong though. First, the Glebe is an NDP stronghold, as far as they are concerned. Mahoney is doing quite well in the Glebe from the amount of signs he has up there. Richard is the local guy and is not turning off anyone, and I hear he is actually taking the time to listen to voters at the doors. Most left-leaning Liberals will vote for Richard because to them "Ed Broadbent is a luxury they cannot afford to have". The mere thought of Harper will even make some people inclined to vote for Ed hold their nose and vote Liberal. Sorry Dean, Richard will be elected.
28/04/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Insider's assessment on Ottawa Centre pales compared to his more interesting, nay juicy, comments on other Ottawa ridings.
The Glebe isn't the NDP stronghold as it may have been in previous elections like 1984 and 1988...it voted Liberal in every federal election since 1993, though 2000 was close. Provincially, it has shifted even more to the Liberals and in 2003 was stronger for that Party than highly ethnic areas like Dalhousie or Mechanicsville. Broadbent will appeal to virtually every element in the riding and Mahoney wearing Martin on his sleeve will be a lightning rod for those who have formed a distaste for the Liberals since Adscam.
Mahoney is canvassing every night, Broadbent isn't [thereby turning off voters...].
Mahoney is calling constituents, Broadbent isn't [turning off the voters he didn't see].
Mahoney has lived in the riding for 20 years, Broadbent has for 2 [I'd like to see how his home poll votes...].
Mahoney believes in what he says, Broadbent doesn't know what he says [if Mahoney actually believes in what he says, he must be the most "outside the system" Liberal that is possible to find...they would have to scour as far away as Pluto to find someone that principled]
Lefty Grits and leaning dippers will realize that a vote for Ed Broadbent is a vote for Stephen Harper [actually this is the furthest from the case...the NDP is running to be the first to help out the Liberals if they sink to a minority...since 1974 the NDP is the Liberals "foul weather friend"]
28/04/04 PFR
Email: webmaster@e-reich.org
I just can't see the liberals winning this riding. Even some neo-conservatives who disagree with Ed Broadbent views like and respect him more than they do the liberals right now. In short Broadbent is a star candiate. Richard Mahoney dispite being a Martin loyalist is not.
26/04/04 RP.
Email: [hidden]
Ed is one of those guys like Joe Clark, or Pierre Trudeau, that attracts grudging respect, if not outright support, from all parties. Indeed, Mr. Clark seems to have endorsed Mr. Broadbent on CBC Radio's "As It Happens." He was saying that in this coming election, he could not give his support to any one party. In the last couple of days, he's described Harper as "scary," and that Canada may be better off with the "devil we know" (Martin). He stressed that people should support the best candidate in their ridings, whether it was Mr. Herron in N.B. (Liberal), or Mr. Broadbent in Ottawa (I forget the name of the Conservative he named, sorry).
26/04/04 The Insider
Email: [hidden]
Ed is barely winning the sign war in the Glebe -- no surprise, old Ottawa-South -- again no surprise! Nowhere else! Not Westboro, Carleton Heights, Hintonbourgh, or the Civic Hospital. Moreover, neither camp has signs on public property because there is a by-law in effect (no signs on public property 30-days from E-day), which was enforced on Ed's campaign!!! I will agree that the NDP is working hard (even with a pamphlet that was reduced to a bookmark). I wonder if it's because they reached their spending limit already? This will be a close race that will come down to a couple of things: 1) Who will have a seat at the government table to deliver for Ottawa Centre; and 2) Stopping Stephen Harper from gutting Canada's social fabric!
24/04/04 Sean Fordyce
The last couple posts should be identified and filtered as wishful Liberal thinkers. They are way off base and clearly partisan. I live in Ottawa and go through this riding very, very often. As a bordem-busting game I count the signs I pass. I go through different parts of the riding each time.
It is clear the Liberals are getting out some signs now. This is a lot more than they had a few weeks ago when the only signs to be seen were NDP. However, the Liberals remain well back of the NDP in most of the riding with respect to signs. (I don't bother with signs on public property as they don't mean anything. What counts are when voters get signs on their own property.)
In this riding at this time, I would not judge signs as the whole story. Both parties in the captial and before a general election want to make a good showing. A lot of effort is being made and most of what you are seeing is the strength of the organisation for each party.
Contrary to the previous posters, the NDP do have a strong campaign and a lot of canvassing going on.
What I see and know is the following:
1) There are NDP signs where I have seen Liberals before.
2) The NDP is working hard in the riding (but they often do). However, it looks like the best sign campaign they have had in a long time.
3) While the NDP has had good candidates in the recent past, none have had quite the stature and name recognition of Broadbent. This is coming at a time when the NDP are showing their strongest polling since 1988. Further the NDP vote, if it holds, is very high in Ontario.
4) People are angry at the Liberals. The Liberal candidate is also recognized as close to Martin. It would not surprise me if Conservatives supported Broadbent just to take one from the Liberals.
5) Public servants are frustrated with Martin's government. While they usually vote Liberal they may not this time.
6) Word on the street seems to be pro-NDP. I suspect that it is easier to come out as an Ed Broadbent supporter than a Liberal supporter now in the current climate.
7) While some of these factors have occurred here for the NDP, never before have all of them aligned together: Strongest local candidate, vacant riding with no incumbant, strong NDP polling, strong NDP locally, local and national anger with the Liberals....
Any person who suggests that the Liberals will take this riding easily is dreaming. Comparing Layton to Stockwell Day is also a clear case of wishful thinking by partisan Liberals. The closest the Liberals had to a weak opposition would have been Stronach. They need to accept that their opposition from all other parties is robust this time. Big mistakes from any of them is highly unlikely.
Unless something changes, the NDP appear to have a significant edge here. It may be a bit closer than it seems but the Liberals are behind right now.
I don't doubt the long date is because of this. If the Liberals thought they would have a quick pre-election byelection win here, the vote would have been held already. Honest Liberals know they are in for a rough ride here and likely a loss. You have some posters putting on a brave, if not realistic, face.
24/04/04 Dubya
Email: [hidden]
This riding hs been an NDP/Ed lock in my books for several weeks. In my visits to the riding, and talking to the many friends that I know who live in Ottawa Centre, there is little doubt that Ed will take the riding and the people of Ottawa Centre are excited about the prospect of having such a high profile and strong leader as their MP.
Given the most recent posts by the Liberal Party supporters I am even more certain that Ed is in great shape. When the other candidate's supporters begin to circulate misinformation it stinks of desperation and frustration. The previous posting by 'The Insider' made some ridiculous statements that are simply not true.
Ed is out everyday meeting with citizens in Ottawa Centre.
Ed is definately calling citizens everyday.
Ed lives in Ottawa Centre and is commited to the community.
Ed is very clear what he believes in. This notion that he isn't is mind boggling considering the level of national respect he has regarding his work on issues of human rights and social justice. Besides being a great guy he has strong values and as a politician has always stuck by those values.
Finally 'The Insider' does the traditional appeal for 'strategic voting'. Trying to scare people into voting for the Liberals even though they do not believe in what that party has done in government for the past ten years. This cynical ploy is rather contradictory since Paul Martin to talk about fixing the democratic deficit. Scaring people into voting for you seems to fuel the problems with democracy in Canada. Clearly, this just won't work in Ottawa Centre. A candidate like Ed gives people the opportunity to vote for someone they want as their MP.
How do I know all of this? A few visits to Ottawa Centre in the past month and talking with friends who live in Ottawa Centre who in the past have had little interest in politics but who are now buzzing about the prospect of Ed Broadbent as their MP. Engaging citizens with positive ideas is the best approach to politics. It will win votes across the country.
21/04/04 Honest Abe
Email: simondup@yahoo.ca
The NDPers on the site are laughable -- almost as much as their policies. The political graveyards are filled with many well-known candidates -- Ed being the next to R.I.P. The things I have noticed from the Campaign in Ottawa Centre is that Mahoney largely surpasses Broadbent in lawn signs, though it is close in the Glebe. And, Richard Mahoney is personally working every night. Yes, Broadbent had an initial appeal, like Vanilla Coke, though most prefer Coke Classic. When the Campaign heats-up and voters in Ottawa Centre see Ed travelling the country stumping for Jack (Stockwell Day) Layton, whilst Richard Mahoney is at their front door, the NDP will crash and burn in Ottawa Centre. This will surely be the final nail in their coffin in Eastern Ontario and Western Quebec: You will no longer be in play! This is Ottawa...not Oshawa!!!
19/04/04 The Insider
This is going to be a tough battle but the tide has already begun to turn. Broadbent got the jump on signs, but slowly and surely Mahoney has caught up and acually surpassed Broadbent in most of the riding. Even in the dipper stronghold of the Glebe Mahoney is holding his own on signs.
Mahoney is canvassing every night, Broadbent isn't.
Mahoney is calling constituents, Broadbent isn't.
Mahoney has lived in the riding for 20 years, Broadbent has for 2.
Mahoney believes in what he says, Broadbent doesn't know what he says.
It's Ottawa Centre not Oshawa Centre and Mahoney will take it.
Lefty Grits and leaning dippers will realize that a vote for Ed Broadbent is a vote for Stephen Harper -> something they will not allow to happen.
19/04/04 AndrewB
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals are poised to take the Ottawa Centre riding yet again. Signs have been sprouting all over the riding like dandilions. So have Green Party signs, a party that will only detract votes from the NDP. Richard's profile is gaining momentum especially as Martin's platform becomes more clearly defined. The constituents of OC are smart enough to realize that a seat at the government table is preferable over four years of an opposition member complaining.
13/04/04 J M
Ed Broadbent will win easily. Mahoney's campaign is already falling off the rails - a few long-time OC Liberals I know have said they're voting Broadbent. Mahoney's roots in the riding are largely a work of speculative fiction - for example he may be a member of the Glebe Community Association but I know for a fact that he has never been active with them. His close ties with Martin will be a liability, not an asset, in this riding.
09/04/04 Nick Patrick
Email: [hidden]
I just wanted to respond to Funky chicken about Ed Broadbent and Carleton University.
First off Ed Broadbent has better established roots at Carleton than Richard Mahoney. Ed Broadbent since 2001 has acted as visiting fellow at the Arthur Kroeger College of Public Affairs and Policy Management until very recently. His recent events at the school have drawn hundred of students, despite his age he is speaking about and understands issues that matter to students.
Richard Mahoney however has been in the student papers as well. Mostly because his political machine went door to door in residence asking students if they wanted to go to a liberal pub night where there would be free beer. Once students got there they were asked to join the party to help Mr. Mahoney win his nomination. As I recall the Charlatan (Carleton's newspaper) wrote a story about the entire scheme which mentioned how undereage students were also being served.
Granted summer is around the corner and many students will be heading home but a vast majority of the student who will vote will vote for Broadbent
09/04/04 GJJ
Given Funky Chicken's condescending rant, I am even more convinced that Ed Broadbent will win this riding. It seems very clear from his entry that there are some terribly nervous Liberals in the Ottawa-Centre constituency. In addition, Funky Chicken should check his facts. Ed Broadbent has lived in the riding for at least the last two years, taught at Carleton University during this period, and two of the three heavily attended events on campus occurred after his nomination meeting. In addition to the very valid suggestion that Funky Chicken tour the neighbourhoods to see all the NDP signs, he should also walk around Carleton University and note all the people wearing Ed Broadbent buttons.
08/04/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
Ed Broadbent has a dramatic name recognition.
An incumbent gets some name recognition, in the order of a bonus of 2-5%.
A popular incumbent will tend towards the upper end of that.
Certain incumbents build a serious national following and recognition. Svend Robinson in BC. Peter Mackay in NS, even before he was leader of PCs. They win in their riding because they get a 10-20% personal bonus.
And there is Ed Broadbent. If he had crossed to the Liberals in the early 1980s, he would have been PM and not Turner. He was always much more popular than his party. People across Canada like him and want him as an MP. People in Ottawa Centre will like the fact that the riding will have a 'name' representing them.
He is not a parochial, he is a Canadian and therefore arguing that he is not a local to the riding is a bizzare idea. Ottawa Centre will have a national person representing them.
He will win and will win easily
07/04/04 Somebody in Ottawa
Email: [hidden]
While I'm sure Funky feels better after unloading all that frustration, I would recommend a walk through the residential neighbourhoods of Ottawa Centre and a quick chat with some folks who live here.
Funky will see the Ed signs on people's lawns, balconies and porches. Funky will also discover that the phone-blasting from the call-centre Mahoney's campaign has contracted with is getting on people's nerves (and giving them just another reason to punish him).
The only usefull part of Funky's rant was the bit about strategic voting. The Liberals will use it because it's the ONLY trick they've got, but only a few hundred voters will still fall for it. People here like Ed. They trust Ed. And enough of them are going to vote for Ed to make him their next MP. Even if the NDP finish with just 20 seats, this will be one of them.
05/04/04 Funky Chicken
Email: [hidden]
I wish to begin by refuting "Chris" the NDP predictor:
Well, like last person says, even the conservative polls agree the NDP will win this riding. Ottawa-Centre has always been a riding with tight two or three way race, usually ending up with the Liberals winning, with the NDP on occasion. But with the Liberals narrowily winning in the provincial election in Ottawa-Centre, Ed Broadbent's presence has given the NDP it's edge to secure victory in this riding.
Excuse me Chris, but the actual result for this riding in the quite recent provincial election was Liberal Richard Patten DOUBLING either one of the other two parties. I don't have the results, (but I think they appear on the left side of the screen for any riding's profile here on electionprediction.com) ... I did dig up my Globe and Mail partial results as published October 3rd and they showed Patten LIB 17,489, Varner PC 8,885 [note that at the end of the vote Varner finished 3rd, just behind the NDP] and Atkinson NDP 8,885. [233 of 266 polls had reported for those results] There you have it, though. Liberal Richard Patten clearly doubled both adversaries, so unless the Layton Dippers somehow make an unholy ALLIANCE with Harper and the Tories, well, let's just boil it down to this:
Chris was typing out of his @$$.
Now for some credible analysis:
It does not take a Ph.d political scientist [never ask a rocket scientist for political analysis, especially if his name is Chris] to note that Broadbent's presence in this race as of mid-December (and confirmed in January, I believe) threw a hell of a curveball at Richard Mahoney.
The secondary factor of sponsor-gate / Adscam / whatever the media and disorganized Opposition inflate it to is another challenge for Mahoney.
BUT: A GENERAL ELECTION IS NOT CALLED YET. When a general election occurs, the by-election dynamic ceases to be relevant. Instead of an opportunity to punish the Liberals while voting for Good ol' Ed Broadbent, a general election dynamic takes over and voters will follow the Leaders. Not the former Leaders. Voters will also clearly evaluate the policy directions of each and every Party, and the one espoused by Martin will fare well in Ottawa Centre compared to the inflated hopeful rhetoric of the NDP.
Voters will also look to who and how they will be represented. Many of them will prefer to choose a relatively young (low 40s) politically savvy individual with real ties in the community such as children in an established public school here, membership in a local community theatre, and real connections with the local arts and cultural communities, to what is essentially an eloquent, but parachuted, Parliamentarian in Ed Broadbent. That Mahoney is a long-established close advisor of the Prime Minister will also be noted by residents of this riding, the riding that actually INCLUDES Parliament Hill, where it is natural to be informed.
Let us establish once again that Richard Mahoney is now a long-time resident of Ottawa Centre, specifically, over near the Canal on the Queen Elizabeth side.
Ed Broadbent used to represent Oshawa, and in Ottawa, he resided in Sandy Hill, which is over in Ottawa-Vanier. After leaving politics (1990 or so) Broadbent was the first appointee to a Canadian Centre for Human Rights ---> in MONTREAL. (sidenote: he was succeeded by Hon. Warren Allmand, a Lib, actually from Montreal...) and when he was done with that, Broadbent became a lecturer at McGill... again, in MONTREAL.
The reason Broadbent has hit the ground running so hard in the by-election (including lots of signs on public property even though E-day is technically still set for November ... note to Ottawa by-law officers and overzealous N-Dippers!) is because HE DOES NOT HAVE ANY CREDENTIALS FOR OTTAWA CENTRE.
Mahoney does. Real ones, and access to Martin.
I also believe that Broadbent, in the long haul that is this by-election and under the more focused general election scenario, may be a little long in the tooth, [although I hope not to motivate anyone by writing that!] This race is enjoying the initial hurrah of his arrival and the start of a by-election (giving pundits like us hacks a lot to watch)
Mahoney will likely benefit from a Paul Martin visit to this riding, given their friendship (Jean Chretien kicked off the 1997 campaign in Centre with Mac Harb)
Someone else wrote about Broadbent's three events at Carleton University. That's nice. I presume that had a lot to do with selling the memberships to win the nomination. Will the Carleton students be there to vote if the election occurs at the end of May or June? what about September/October? What if the by-election occurs as intended Nov. 29th? Very close to exams. Students are hard to mobilize, busy, and only amount to a very small portion of the 100,000+ voters in Ottawa Centre. Good for this student for showing his/her altruism, but too bad they let this cloud their political pundits ability.
Mahoney did plenty with Carleton during his own nomination process which culminated December 1st, anyway.
I'm sure there will be some Carleton / student events during a general campaign and I am certain that Mahoney will fare very well there in open debate. Students will always lean left (they should) but they accept Liberal balance, and so will the broader community.
And, given that it has been 16 years since Broadbent last fought an election (1988) I think it will only be older established voters who remember him at all, and they will not necessarily be for him, because they have more to "conserve."
Green Party candidate David Chernushenko is also interesting. Who will he take votes from? Probably the NDP.
Editors of this site have dutifully commented that just about anybody can float a Bourque rumour. Lowell Green's purported candidacy was probably floated out there by a local PC spokesperson who had a stake in the last provincial election and lives in Ottawa Centre, but is not fully credible. I digress.
I leave you with this: most casual observers did not pick UConn to narrowly upset Duke this weekend in the NCAA tournament, did they? The younger, less-established program beat the final four legend in a nailbiter.
Mahoney over Broadbent, nipping him at the end, after a hard-fought long haul, a lot of hard work by a good team, smart pacing, and because he will serve Ottawa Centre residents more effectively than an eloquent protest voice with old ideas. PCs not a factor in this particular dynamic, and never in this particular riding federally.
04/04/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
Ed Boardbent will win this one the same way Joe Clark won Calgary Centre in 2000. Meaning disgruntled Liberals, Red Tories and even a few Reform/Alliance/CPC diehards along with NDP'ers will vote in a bloc for Mr.Boardbent on election day.
04/04/04 Dave S.
Email: [hidden]
Everyone here has completely discounted the Conservative candidate, Mike Murphy. In both 2000 and 1997 the combined Alliance-PC/Reform-PC vote was higher than the NDP vote -so much for the stereotype of OC as a left-wing bastion. The riding is as centrist as any. In fact, the right vote in the last two elections was slightly less than half the combined Liberal & NDP vote. In other words, Broadbent takes votes from the Liberals, but not too many, and Murphy picks up votes from right-of-centre voters who previously went Liberal, and you're looking at a tight three way race.
I just have to add its pretty sad that the Grits on this board seem to say they'll win based on Martin's popularity over Layton's, and not on their local candidate's merits. If that reflects most Grits faith in Mahoney, than I'm even more convinced that this riding will see the NDP and Tories finishing in 1st and 2nd -possibly Tories sneaking up the middle to win it.
03/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Hmmm...at the end of it, the voters will choose Martin over Layton?
Actually a good question and not one that any but a fanatical Liberal could honestly answer forthrightly for Martin. Ottawa Centre is full of civil sevants who have been nickeled and dimed for the past decade...Martin must campaign in 308 ridings...while Layton can be well content with 40-50...Martin post-leadership has shown little affinity for any but the highest rungs of the civil service.
But, the riding has changed a lot in the past few years, pushing west into pretty middle class country. Otherwise, I would give it to Broadbent by 20%+...but given the addition of Westboro and other Ottawa West neighbourhoods, that must be reduced to say 10% or a bit more.
btw, if Broadbent is getting a little old for campaigning, what does that say for the various major Party leaders?

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