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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

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26/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Hey Insider, you certainly have a remarkable access to information concerning Alan Riddell...should I take it that you got it as a Liberal Party insider and have seen his or a similar name on the Liberal Party membership lists?
There are just a couple of points to clear up in my mind so I can place this in a better context...
How are you so sure Alan supported Camille Awada for the Liberal nomination?...what confuses me is the timing - after all, he was campaigning for the Conservative nomination which was held a day earlier than the Liberal?...When you said he recently held a Liberal membership...well was it recently (when purchased...when would it lapse naturally), and for what riding?...May I take it he was not a Liberal party member when he was running for the Conservative nomination? I wonder if he may have just been supporting a friend for the Liberal nomination in a riding, but then knowing that David was a shoo-in, concentrated on winning his own nomination...if any of this is true it looks good for Alan and explains why Camille and his team is now working for him in Ottawa South...great digging...great work!
23/04/04 The Insider
Email: [hidden]
I just learned that Conservative Alliance candidate, Alan Riddell was recently a Liberal -- mere weeks before winning his Conservative Alliance nomination. In fact, Alan was actively working on Camille Awada's Liberal nomination, which headed to a massive defeat at the hands of the McGuinty team. Which party does Alan belong to? Is he a crass opportunist? Does he have any vision for Ottawa South, excluding his dream to be a Member of Parliament, where he does not reside? All great questions that Alan had better prepare answers to. Either way, bye-bye Alan, you, like your friend, will taste defeat served by David McGuinty. As that Rabbit once said: Tricks are for kids!
21/04/04 E. Andrew Washburn
I would have to agree with whoever said Allan who? who is this guy? I've never heard of him. This is certainly a riding the Conservatives can win, but not with a candidate no one has ever heard of. If the tories picked Terry Kilrea instead, then we'd have a race! I would have tried to get Peter Hume or Alan Higdon on board as well, as they have some name recognition. Now, I do know Dalton's support is likely down in Ontario, and this may go against his brother, but perhaps not. I still think the McGuinty's are well loved in Ottawa, just look at the pictures of him at the Sens game in full sens-attire with his wife. Now, the NDP coming in here with Monia will make it an interesting race. Will the NDP take votes from the the Liberals? Maybe, but I also see her taking votes away from Conservatives, because of the anti-liberal vote. She may be viewed by many voters as the #2 candidate. I predict a good race to watch, but McGuinty will come out on top, even if it is only 40%.
19/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Dear Honest Abe...I haven't been complimented quite like that in many years...
Returning to basics...John Manley was a very well regarded MP who I believe lifted the Liberal vote above its normal level by 5% at least...
Despite the apparently astounding character of the Liberal candidate, I don't think he will change the riding battle beyond a trio of non-incumbants. Starting with 51%, dropping to say a base of 47% with non-imcumbancy and then subtract what you will over Adscam, a resurgent NDP, a combative Conservative Party...
The Conservatives are very much united behind their candidate Alan Riddell...his temporary handicap of not being well known will not survive till voting day. The Conservatives together won 40%+ against Manley in 2000. Will these voters stay together? The Progressive Conservatives in Ottawa South voted overwelmingly to unite with the Alliance (I think five to one)...The united Conservative Association voted very heavily to support Harper as leader...I would argue that the "Red Tory" leakage will be minimal and probably non-existent.
The NDP has a candidate with national and favourable recognition. The NDP collapsed 1993 and thereafter but every poll suggests that they are recapturing their base, which shrank both nationally and at the riding level. Monia Mazigh will have a special appeal to the significant Muslim community in Ottawa South, but not simply that...I think she can expect to garner 15% or more in the election.
Dispassionately, the riding looks tight and will be thoroughly contested by all three parties. I look forward to the battle unfolding...Dean
16/04/04 Somebody in Ottawa
Email: [hidden]
Thanks for the compliment, Dean.
I don't think provincial voting patterns are a reliable source for predicting the outcome of this federal campaign beyond measuring a riding's swing capacity. Ontario voted for change in 2003, which meant voting Liberal. So, what happens if Ontario votes for change federally in 2004? For whom would they vote? I know Ottawa voters are primed for change.
In Ottawa South, there are two strong options for change. I happen to think that Mazigh embodies substantial change and will attract votes for that reason. It should be enough to defeat McGuinty (a status-quo candidate if there ever was one), but not enough to bury Riddell (at least not yet). Then again, the Conservatives are offering change in the form of yet another white, male lawyer candidate. Voters in Ottawa South may want more than a different colour suit and tie.
If Ontario votes for change, I expect a blue wave will wash over all of Eastern Ontario, leaving just Ottawa Vanier and G-P-R for the Liberals and Ottawa Centre for the NDP. But keep an eye on Ottawa South -- the NDP are shifting real resources into the riding. Perhaps their polling is telling them something?
15/04/04 Dave S
Email: dsimms@arvotek.net
I predict a tough three way race. The NDP have a star candidate that people respect and identify with. The combined PC/CA vote was about 40% last election. This will probably drop with most Red Tories going Liberal. The Liberal candidate has name recognition which may work for or against him. Overall I predict 35-45% Liberal, 25-35% Conservative, 15-35% NDP.
14/04/04 Honest Abe
Email: [hidden]
Wow...what a love affair between "Somebody" and "Dean". Please get a room and leave the analysis to the real players. First, Riddell who? Second, you know I need not mention the last name, but will do so to send shivers down your spine: McGuinty. Yes, as in David McGuinty, who will wipe the floor with both parachuted candidates from the opposition ranks, er cheap seats. Ottawa South deserves and will receive real representation and no way does Riddell or Mazingh offer a glimpse of what David can and will do for the riding. Third, Mazingh will bearely exceed the dippers traditional and pathetic showing in elections. So, for you two kids, take your marbles and go home and cry because David McGuinty keeps Ottawa South in the Liberal column.
13/04/04 JM
I put Liberal, but it's really too close to call - it'll be a tight race with the Conservative. The NDP may pull enough votes that the Conservative wins, but the NDP, although growing in the riding, does not have a strong enough organization to win yet. The Mazigh name (if she wins the nomination) is not especially well-known outside the circles of political insiders, and for various reasons she will not attract huge numbers of Muslim or Arab voters, although there are plenty of these in the riding. The Cons smell blood and will spend like crazy to try to win this riding. The Libs will too - they have incredibly deep pockets and will likely move workers from Ottawa Centre, giving it up as a lost cause, to try to save the seat.
09/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Hi Somebody...that was pretty good research that you unearthed...it is as well that Alan decided to run federally...now we in Ottawa South have three good candidates to choose from.
I'm interested in trying to apply provincial to riding trends. Public polls suggest a substantial Liberal lead remaining in Ontario...though Conservative polls since suggest Liberal voters in the province are moving into undecided ranks (Globe and Mail, April 9).
My instinct is that Ottawa and region are unfriendly to the federal Liberals right now...civil servants are more aware than any of the Liberal instictive grasp of power and its consequences.
But partisanship aside, I also suspect that anti-Liberal voters are more motivated this time than Liberal voters are...Any thoughts at your end?
07/04/04 Somebody in Ottawa
Email: [hidden]
Hey Dean... you're right (my bad). Riddell didn't run, but he was registered to run in Rideau-Vanier as of September 26 (according to a news story I've got here (http://www.ottawastart.com/briefs/arc8-2003.html). He must have quit the race at the last minute, which means he's smarter than I suggested in a previous post, given the way that ward played-out.
Does he live in Rideau-Vanier, or would he have been a parachute candidate last year?
03/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Hey "Sombody in Ottawa", the "weak" conservative candidate didn't run municipally last year, though one of the candidates for the nomination ran for Mayor. Alan Riddell has some pretty blue ribbon credentials, lacking only a pre-existing recognition factor...a lot like conservatives like Ron Atkey, who carried St. Pauls in 1972...excellent credentials but who had to build their riding recognition during the election campaign. The liberal candidate has great recognition not for the person, but from the family name, which is an asset...if the NDP runs Mazigh, she will also have an excellent profile that should help her bump up the nDP numbers to 12-15% or so.

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