|OK, well I guess we can now all read the lengthy press release below from Liberal Party HQ.
He's right, Olivia Chow is no Rosario Marchese. I would say that she is about 10 times more popular than he is. Marchese is a pretty low profile NDP backbencher who somehow keeps winning Trinity-Spadina by huge margins. Olivia Chow is just about the best known, highest profile city councillor in Toronto. She won reelection with 90% of the vote in November - despite attempts to make an issue of her possibly making a federal run. When she ran in 1997, she came within a hair of winning when the national NDP campaign was a disgrace and Alexa McDonough added ZERO to the NDP's effort. This time the NDP vote will be far higher and Layton's leadership will be a big help too.
Yes, people in downtown Toronto are very savvy. They see that when Toronto elects a full slate of nothing but Liberals federally in three straight elections, the result is that Toronto gets ZIP from Ottawa. Now all of a sudden when it looks like the NDP may steal a few seats in Toronto, all of a sudden Martin starts murmuring about "urban agendas" etc... The message is clear. If you want the Liberals to actually lift a finger in Toronto, you have to elect some non-Liberals and make the Liberals feel that they need to fight for their vote.
Ianno has always been a misfit in this riding. This is a sophisticated downtown riding and he is old style Tammany Hall Liberal whose biggest claim to fame is sending buses full of old ladies in black dresses to Liberal nominating meetings to get his cronies nominated. The Liberal ought to be able to do better than him.
I predict Chow will win and it won't even be close.
|King of Kensington
|The "condo element" isn't enough to destroy the NDP's chances here. If you took a walk or drive down Brunswick Avenue, Palmerston Boulevard or Huron Street during the last provincial election, the lawn signs were overwhelmingly orange. So to say the riding's increased affluence is a negative factor in terms of NDP votes is a pretty weak analysis. Rosario Marchese admits that most of his base is from middle class professionals (like university professors, architects, lawyers, etc.), not the working class Portuguese, Italian and Chinese communities. Little Italy's "Italianness" has been dwindling since the 1960s. The Portuguese (who have long outnumbered Italians in Little Italy), are also moving to the suburbs in pretty big numbers. And who's replacing the heavily working class homeowners of areas like Little Italy, Trinity Bellwoods or Seaton Village? Largely the expanding Secular WASP/Jewish intelligentsia. This works to the NDP's advantage. I'm not saying that the NDP should focus their efforts on these professionals with progressive values rather than the working class - in fact it's rather depressing. However, the fact is that right now this is largely where the Toronto NDP draws from.
If Ianno weren't the incumbent, the NDP would most likely well over 50%.
Funny how electionprediction always calls Trinity-Spadina "too close". Even in the last provincial election, when the very popular Marchese trounced the pathetic Liberal candidate, Nelly Pedro. I guess the editors took the propaganda regarding Nelly Pedro's "strong candidacy" seriously.
Prediction: NDP 49%, LIB 36%, CPC 10%, others 5%
|Well it is always nice to see people acting without partisan interest in making submissions to this site. Let us examine the facts instead of the party line.
(1) With the exception of Dan Heap no NDPer has ever held this riding. This riding has effectively been Liberal since the days of the Ark- ADVANTAGE IANNO
(2) Olivia Chow is No Rosario Marchese, she has no track record to speak of other than at the Municipal Level and she can hardly be viewed as a star, she cannot hold a candle to Jack Layton.- NO ADVANTAGE
(3) During the last municipal election Oliva refused to say she would not run federally. She knew full well that she was and therefore mislead the electors of her municipal seat. I have also heard of some actions durign the municipal campagin relating to the possible use of municipal staff for partisan purposes to support the mayor. While I may give her the benefit of the doubt as to she did not direct it, she was made aware but chose not to act. DISADVANTAGE-CHOW
(4) This riding is very ethnically diverse with the Porgugese and Chinese making up a massive percentage. This should be seen as an advantage to Chow who has the ethnic card to play whereas the Italian community from which Ianno originates is a small fraction. This is only a fact if you accept people vote on ethnic lines. Consider that Rosario is Italian and so is Pantalone in your equation before you concede the ethnic card to Chow -NO ADVANTAGE
(5) Despite the fiasco in Ottawa with the sponsership scandal the country is much better off today then 10 years ago. We still have one HELL of a long way to go be we are on the road. If it seems like the new Conservative Party is headed to creating a minority Strategic voting will result I suspect in the holdig of noses by many independents and pragmatic NDPers who will want to put a stop to it-ADVANTAGE IANNO
(6)Ianno has been here since 88, and while he is not the most visable member, I have seen him on bloor st more often than on TV which does not bode well to a claim of being a good member, he has the advantage of incumbancy which any politico will concede is worth 5%-ADVANTAGE IANNO
(7)The CPC vote should in theory be a combo of the Alliance and PCs, but this ridign contains a lot of very savvy people. Also Ontario voters having suffered through Harris and no fans of Western Popularism are likely to cast the ballots for the Liberals, NDP and others rather than embrace the CPC. THe old PCS were never a factor in this riding and dont believe therefore unless its a massive blowout they will have ANY effect n the results-NO ADVANTAGE
(8)Toronto is savvy, downtown voters are savvy and they know for a fact that an MP who is part of the government Minority (myguess) or majority are better placed then those of ridings of opposition parties, especially when the seat is not held by the government in waitng but by the fourth party whom have no possiblity of forming a government.ADVANTAGE IANNO
(9) As for the condos and new affluance, well frankly $200,000 is sadly bugger all in this day and age and does not constitue affluence. Just ask those with a mortgage praying that rates stay low for some years so they dont have to sell. I dont think people voted for Olivia or Rosario based upon this fact. I dont see it as a factor here. I beleive peopel are driven by pragmatism and polls not conviction which is sad in itself I concede. NO ADVANTAGE
(10) Ontarians are very very pragmatic and will vote to preserve a centrist government and Toronto voters more so. They tossed out the PCS Provincally because that government made a fatal mistake not taking Toronto's strategic place into account. You lose Toronto you are in trouble, the only way Ianno can lose is if the polls here swing against the Liberals. The polling from within Toronto is well over the national average for the governing party -ADVANTAGE Ianno
I could go on, but based upon the facts I cannot see how Ianno can lose. We are examing facts not merit of re-election or if people will not want to seperate Olivia from her hubby and vote her in.
I think it will be around 1500 votes for Mr. Ianno and this seat will be liberal at the end of the day.
|Keep in mind that all the new condos were supposed to spell trouble for Rosario Marchese last fall, but they didn't at all.
|This will be a very exciting race, but I'm putting my odds on Olivia Chow. She has proven to be a very well liked councillor for her constituents, and is a very notable social activist for many issues, including many issues that effect Trinity-Spadina voters. I say Olivia takes it by a few thousand votes, but then again, anything can happen in the upcoming months (or even weeks) into the election.
|People who would pay $200K for a condo could easily vote NDP (take a couple each earning a very average wage of 40K a year, and a mortgage like that is in their reach). The typical Toronto NDP supporter is also much wealthier than your average NDPer most places. And there is a reason the NDP has not held a nomination yet in this very winnable seat, it is being held for Olivia Chow. My prediction is it won't even be close, an NDP landslide.
|Olivia requires two elements to fall into place to win:
1) Hubby Jack generates enough excitement to drive national NDP % to 20.
2) The Conservatives draw off enough votes in the affluent new condos away from the Liberals to allow Olivia the steal.
Otherwise, Ianno is sitting pretty for another 1-2 years (minority gov't, anyone?)
|Not only will Olivia not win here, I don't think she is even going to run. For starters, redistribution has hurt the socialist cause by removing a whole strip on the western portion of the riding that traditionally goes NDP. Secondly, the explosion of condo dwellers will seriously effect the NDP vote, let's be honest, people who pay $200'000 for a condo, don't tend to vote for the NDP's social housing schemes, etc. Finally, Jack has a fight on his hands against the entrenched Dennis Mills, why divide your resources and why risk Olivia running and losing, or worse, Olivia winning but Jack losing. If they really want to win this one they will convince Rosario Marhcese to run and give up on the provincial party (which is going nowhere, fast). It was his personal popularity that won the NDP the seat, not support for the NDP itself. If Rosario runs, the NDP will get it, otherwise the Liberals will take it again.
|I feel this riding will go to Olivia Chow. She is well respected in the community and the revelation that Tony Ianno has a trust fund of 260K of retained contributions in conjunction with the current Liberal sponsorship scandal should only help her chances. She nearly won in 1997 (41% to 45%) and Ianno's position has been weakened.
|This one used to be safe NDP territory, but they blew it by running upper-class twit-of-the-year Michael Valpy. Olivia Chow can take it back. She lost to Tony Ianno narrowly in the first Liberal sweep to power, but now she addds the "leader's spouse" bump to her already high profile in the riding.
|Look for an NDP victory here, in what is invariably their #1 target in Central Canada. Olivia Chow is likely the candidate, and if so, will likely win a solid majority.
|Strong socialist base here and 2nd best NDP result in 2000 (a dismal year for them) should propel them to a strong victory here, especially if a strong candidate like Olivia Chow runs. In the end, Layton's popularity will spread across town to Trinity-Spadina. Predicted results: NDP 48%, Liberal 33%, Conservative 12%, others 7%.
|Bear and Ape
|The most likely riding to turn over to the NDP in all of Ontario (besides Jack Layton's own riding). The NDP won this in the provincial election, and got more than just a respectable showing in the two last federal elections (if we're not mistaking, the NDP almost won it in '97). Good bet that it will go NDP.
|Olivia Chow, popular Toronto city councilor and wife of Jack Layton, is likely to beat Tony Ianno. Ask any observer and you'll hear that Tony is in trouble. Olivia has been receiving a lot of national coverage since the NDP convention last year and her popularity has risen in the city. She is very close to new mayor David Miller. The NDP won the riding by 16% over a relatively strong Liberal candidate in the September '03 provincial election. After sponsorship, this is hers to lose.
|The NDP will win this riding regardless of who wins. Layton's coat tails will turn this riding Orange. With roumer that Olivia Chow, NDP Leader Jack Layton's wife is running here that only makes this victory more assured.