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Trinity-Spadina
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale



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29/04/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
In 2000 the NDP candidate was Michael Valpy, a clearly superior candidate in all respects to Olivia Chow or Jack Layton. He didn't make it despite an on-platform endorsement from the Green Party of Canada candidate - prompted by Valpy's open praise of the 2000 GPC platform and stating in The Varsity (University of Toronto newspaper) that "the NDP must be more like the Greens"; Olivia is far less well known for supporting a "green shift", has an uneven record as City Councillor in this regard (including advocating tax breaks for advertising and doctom companies), and this time the Greens are stronger and uncompromising: so call that as many as 1000 votes she won't get, that Valpy did. This is Jane Jacobs' riding. What does Jane think? Her endorsement probably made David Miller, it could make Olivia Chow, so I'll change my prediction to NDP if Jane speaks up for Olivia.
There's also her English to worry about: Olivia has a very strong accent and that just doesn't wash with many people when selecting a spokesperson.
Playing against that is her very strong community organization and obviously strong influence with Jack Layton, but, if he isn't elected in Toronto-Danforth, or there's a majority government, that leverage won't count for much.
27/04/04 Spring Peeper
Email: [hidden]
No prediction, but a few notes on the, until now, dismissed Conservatives.
In the last federal election, the combined PC/CA vote was 12% with unmemborable candidates. In the last provincial election, the PC vote was 13% during an election where even popular incumbants lost seats. It's safe to say that the base conservative vote in the riding hovers around 10-15%, but to assume that the CPC will only pull this bare minimum of votes is fool-hardy.
Firstly, people like to vote on the winning horse, and a divided party with low poll numbers is not a winner. This time around, the CPC is engergized from their rejoining, and up in the polls.
Secondly, the conservative campaigns in the riding have in the past been weak. I've met the Conservative candidate and he's a very serious contender, who has his campaign team in place.
The Conservatives are going to put up a fight. Between the NPD pulling votes one way, and the Conservatives pulling them the other, Ianno is going down. Who ends up on top, or how far down Ianno will go, is far from clear.
24/04/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Back to JP's original post, the simple fact that, even after all his Advantage/No Advantage reasoning, he could still *only* come up w/a 1500-vote margin--well, that shows how much trouble Ianno's in. And re the seat's evolution, keep in mind that the losing Chow '97 *and* Valpy '00 campaigns more or less equalled or surpassed Dan Heap's *winning* campaigns. So, you can tell which way the political/organizational culture's leaning--esp. if one assumes that in the wake of the sponsorship scandal, certain of the new-condo-crowd would rather "spoil" their ballots w/the Tories than vote Liberal to keep the dreaded NDP out...
19/04/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
I'm predicting that Olivia will be going to Ottawa -- without Jack. This left-loony is tailor-made for this left-loony riding. She nearly got Ianno last time she tried -- and did much better than Jack did against Mills. The Chinese who actually show up at the polls are hers. When did an Italian last live here? Marchese's win against odds-on favorite, Liberal star, Trustee emeritus Nellie Pedro are portents of things to come. Bye-bye Tony!
Will Olivia step down so that Jack can run for her seat in a by-election?
08/04/04 Gerry
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
Well, JP, thank you for your kind response but I think we'll just have to agree to disagree. I think your fifth point is probably the most telling. If polls close to e-day suggest that the Liberals will certainly win but will have difficulty winning their majority, I don't think Trinity-Spadina will hesitate to send Chow to Ottawa. If, however, there is fear that Harper may end up governing, then they may, as you say, end up "holding their nose" and strategically voting for Ianno.
Currently, I am predicting the former situation, thus my NDP prediction. Though a lot can happen between now and e-day. This is a riding to watch.
And one more thing. I was involved on the Nellie Pedro campaign last fall and the Liberals were most certainly taking this riding seriously. They thought, at least at the beginning of the campaign, that their ability to knock off Rosario was much greater than Prue or Churley.
03/04/04 King of Kensington
Email: [hidden]
I appreciate the nice things JP said about me, but I still think he's exaggerating the working class element of the riding. Certainly it has historically been a very working class/ethnic riding, first Jewish and Italian, later Portuguese and Chinese. The working class Jewish element of pre-WWII days is gone, the Italian element is almost gone, the Portuguese element has started to decline, the Chinese element isn't growing significantly. Now the WASP/Jewish intelligentsia element is huge, and goes overwhelmingly NDP. And it's not just the Annex or Palmerston Boulevard (which have always been well-off). It's Euclid Avenue, Grace Street, Shaw Street. It's in Little Italy and Seaton Village (once solidly working class areas). It's not a small sliver in a concentrated area. I think you're talking about Davenport, where the NDP can't rely on middle class professionals for most of their support if they wanted to get elected.
Trinity-Spadina has one of the highest proportions of university graduates in Canada. And the western riding boundary is now Ossington, so Dovercourt is now in Davenport, so the professional proportion goes up further. This helps the NDP. Toronto's NDP is really based among middle class professionals, very different from Northern Ontario or British Columbia. Of the three NDP MPPs, only Michael Prue has a mostly working class base of support.
03/04/04 A.R.
Email: [hidden]
The last time Olivia ran for a federal seat, she lost by a very small amount of votes. So fast forward to Spring of 2004, where the NDP is gaining in the polls, while the Liberals aren't, that difference will help Olivia win this seat in the upcoming election by a nose.
03/04/04 JP
Email: Jason2003@rogers.com
Thanks for the great input Gerry!
(1)agree with you ridings change and Ianno got 6000+ margin last time, I have expect that margin to be cut 75-80% . I feel this is not only due to the NDP up in the polls but also the tone and temperment of the electorate right now. I believe Rosario would come closer and could even win.Dont forget Nellie Pedro was not a real candidate that could be taken seriously and Rosario is acknowledge by even his opponents as a great guy and a damn hard worker.
(2) I dont buy into the Olivia for God campaign that many in the NDP advance. I agree 100% this will be a slugfest and Ianno is vulnerable but not 100% sure he can be knocked off so easily he is a streetfighter and I think this will be one dirty contest. She has had not serious competition and that does not equate to popularity. She rode on Millers coattails in the last one as he was VERY Popular and I know got support from every party in this area
(3) Disagree here as corruption and the likes have been an issue since the days of Socrates yet a limit is reached, take the polls on the sponsorship thing, and people say a pox on you. Again for the reasons I outlined above in 2 not sure I concur with you. One must remembre that Prov and Fed elections are based more on leaders/polls and good deeds and hardwork so its a rare man such as Rosario who can buck that trend.
(4) As you say, no advantage.
(5) Agree if the Liberals count this one to retain the majority they are in trouble. I suspect as I said that many who see the prospect of Harper in power will hold their noses and vote for Ianno rather than risk him governing.
(6) He failed to make cabinet as did many others and I would not call him a liberal star.
(7) As you say, no advantage.
(8) Agree with you, but I feel based on people I spoke to since the Liberals were in and its was just a question of how big many people felt they could easily put in the popular, hardworking and damn effective memeber by the name of Marchese. He got many Liberal votes because Nellie was NOT considered crediable by most. If he was the candidate then I think Ianno would be in big
(9) As you say, no advantage.
(10) Agree that the NDP hearland is downtown but the NDP MP was Dan Heap a man who donated his house and was a man of quality and considered so by all political stripes. I find Marchese is a similar type of fellow and as I say he would in my opinion have a very strong chance of bringing htis one home to the NDP. I do not subscribe as I said to the "I am wonderful" propaganda outthere by Olivia's people, I think it serves to fireup the NDP worker but causes most voters to roll the eyes and say "Where did they find this megomanic"
I agree that Ottawa Centre is NDP and think that Jack will take out Dennis Mills just not convinced that this will be number 3. I look forward to your comments Gerry
02/04/04 JP
Email: Jason2003@rogers.com
The King of Kensington is right about the demographics, as I stated in my earlier submission the Italian community is almost non-existant however as I asserted, proven by the election of Pantalone and Marchese, the ethnic card is not in play here. As for the assertion that the Jewish and WASP inteligensia are what votes them in, perhaps you need to take a walk outside of Kensington and the surrounding environment, over to Dovercourt, down to Chinatown. The group of which you speak have always formed a small part of this riding and DO NOT form the basis for NDP victory I state this because they number far too few. Again the condos are NOT a factor, $200,000 is bupkis today and does not make one affluent, its cheaper in the Annex/Downtown to buy a $200000 condo and pay the mortgage than to rent in most cases so these people are NOT affluent perse and are no different than the other voters in the ward. As the King would no doubt know Olivia's popularity within Kensington has been going down the merchants and many residents are not happy with her refusal to do anything to help the market survive, perhaps you hae missed the KMAC meetings, time to catch up! Got to say King you are more on the ball than DL bravo to you and keep up the good work!
02/04/04 JP
Email: Jason2003@rogers.com
I thank DL for my promotion to the Liberal Party heirarchy, the bad news DL is I am NOT a member of the Liberal party. You might want to check the Provincial results for T-S there DL, you will find I called this for Rosario and If memory serves I called the election to with 1 seat overall largely on the same facts I outlined!. As for Olivia being more popular than Rosario well perhaps you should seek a pay rise from Olivia for being such a good spokesman and promoter, you have a budding oppotunity as a spinmaker for the DUBYA campaign south of the border. I noted with great interest you did not challenge the facts I stated thus conceding my prima facie case.Well DL you would be on the losing end at trial with this tact.If you have some facts to share other than innuedno, speculation and media relations for Olivia's office please share it with the contributors to this project we welcome it! I wish people who are advancing a party line would either say so or refrain from participating as this is supposed to be a factual discussion not an advertising opportunity for candidates spinmakers! Well DL over to you for some FACTUAL assertions we all await your tremendous objective insight into these matters.
01/04/04 Gerry
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
(1) Ridings change. Apart from Nunziata, this has been the most difficult Liberal riding to hold in the last two elections. Now that the NDP is up and the Liberals are down, this is vulnerable to say the least. Provincially, this is solidly NDP.
(2) Olivia Chow was able to come within 1,800 votes in 1997,. She clearly is popular in this riding to say the least.
(3) I sincerely doubt this will be an issue, considering her municipal constituents consistently re-elect her with massive majorities.
(4) As you say, no advantage.
(5) Well, seeing as this riding over the last two elections has been one of the most difficult ridings to hold onto, I doubt the voters are going to decide they want the Liberals to hold their majority.
(6) Ianno has only been here since 1993. A staunch Paul Martin supporter, he failed to make cabinet.
(7) As you say, no advantage.
(8) Yes, in the last provincial election, 19 of Toronto's 22 ridings voted for the government. This was not one of them.
(9) As you say, no advantage.
(10) Of course the polling in Toronto is well above the national average for the Liberals. But Toronto is made up of 22 seats and in the Scarborough and York ridings, they're going to get close to 70% of the vote. In the downtown ridings, they're going to get nowhere near that. Provincially, this riding has shown intense loyalty to the NDP even in the PC and Liberal sweeps.
In conclusion, with the NDP polling double what they earned in the last, they are going to pick up several seats in Ontario. This is Number Three, after Toronto-Danforth and Ottawa Centre.


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