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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

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28/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Pink has some sobering and logical comments to make, and we tend to agree with them. Svend may be popular in some circles but he does have a habit of honking others off (frankly neither of us like him at all). So we tend to agree that his departure will open the door to new NDP votes as opposed to driving former Svend voters to other parties. Liberal boobery will ensure their loss and NDP gains from this loss will allow the NDp to beat the Conservatives handidly.
28/04/04 Pink
Email: [hidden]
The latest Leger poll shows the following results for BC:
Lib 31%
NDP 29%
Cons 23%
Green 13%
Oth 3%
Which means the NDP is a few points shy of tripling its 2000 result of 11% in BC. Yet you predict them to win one seat, and the Conservatives to win 15.
Now, I think the Conservatives are going to rebound somewhat in BC, (that's been the pattern in BC for the last few elections) however, its crazy to call this 'too close to call.'
Burnaby has an NDP city council, Mayor and school board.
Burnaby has historically been a strong area for the NDP provincially and federally.
Paul Martin is doing everything possible to tear the Liberal organization apart in this riding.
While Svend is/was popular, he is a polarizing figure, and his departure likely opens doors to new voters for the NDP. At least as many voters will now consider voting NDP with Svend gone as there are NDP voters who will leave the NDP because Svend isn't running.
Your predictions thus far have not taken into account the very real rise in NDP polling numbers since the 2000 elections. No one expects the NDP to tank back down to 8% nationally. This is one of those ridings you need to rethink.
24/04/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
If I didn't know any better I would swear that Paul Martin is doing everything he can to prevent his own party from making any gains in this province. I will call this too close for now depending if the NDP run a star candidate in this riding. If not I could see this going Tory blue on election day.
24/04/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
The NDP will win this seat EASILY. Probably by a 10,000 vote margin - Svend or no Svend. Burnaby has been an NDP stronghold since the 1950s. With NDP support in BC tripling from 11% to 31% I predict that for every 1 person who switches away from the NDP because Svend is not the candidate, there will be 5 who switch to the NDP because the national trend is fopr the NDP's support to be doubling or even tripling.
The Conservative candidate is weak and unknown and their support is way, way down from what it was in 2000
The Liberals just committed collective suicide by tossing aside all the Chinese candidates so that Martin could appoint some crony of his. On top of that, seeing this Bill Cunningham character being interviewed, my reaction was "yecchhh!" what a grotesquely unattractive candidate to run. He looks like some typical chubby, mealy-mouthed Liberal backroom boy. Just goes to prove the old saying "politics is like show biz for ugly people".
Burnaby is like an NDP one party state. The mayor is NDP, 7 out of 8 city councillors are NDP. All the school trustees are NDP. There is a plethora of strong local candidates that the NDP can run here and any of them could beat the Grade Z Liberal and Conservative candidates with one hand tied behind their back.
24/04/04 RL
Email: [hidden]
Just to let you know, I am a close supporter of Tony Lee and have worked with him on several occasions through the provincial campaign to help elect Richard Lee our local MLA.
Tony Kuo staged the entire event to put pressure on the party. Mr. Kuo is an important television producer working for Channel M here in Vancouver. He also has a great deal of experience in Taiwanese politics and he has on several occasions used his ties to Channel M to make inflammatory statements to the Chinese community urging them to support his efforts to take over the Burnaby-Douglas Riding Association. He is the driving force behind a Taiwanese polical group calling themselves "New Liberals for a New Burnaby." This group was instrumental in overthrowing the previoius riding association headed by Tony Lee. During the election of the riding association's executive, supporters of Tony Kuo had brought video cameras into the election hall and taped over the shoulders of several members as they were voting. Several of Mr. Kuo's supporters managed to get a hold of multiple ballots and stuffed the ballot boxes thereby casting a cloud over the whole process. Rumours circulating within the Chinese community state that Mr. Kuo has huge financial backing. They believe that his resources are far greater than those of Bill Cunningham.
Over the course of the last few days a number of angry telephone calls have been made between party brass and Tony Lee, accusing him of trying to damage whatever is left of Liberal party credibility in this riding. Party brass would like Tony Lee to issue a press conference where he will apologise to the party and voters for bringing up the issue of race. Party brass have also told Tony Lee that, during this press conference, he should also inform voters that he will be stepping aside to support Bill Cunningham.
Despite the fact that Tony Lee stated to reporters several times that Tony Kuo was trying to turn this into an issue of race, the Vancouver Sun and Global Television news reports seem to imply Tony Lee's support for Mr. Kuo's point of view.
I am absolutely 100% sure that Bill Cunningham will become the Liberal Party's candidate here in Burnaby-Douglas. There is no way that either Tony Lee or Tony Kuo will ever be allowed to be members of the Liberal party again.
21/04/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
Things just got ugly here for the Liberals with national news coverage of the nomination process. One of the defeated candidates is now accusing the Prime Minister of playing "race-based" politics for his loss...for a riding that is 50% ethnic minorities! And with Svend gone, the NDP has less of a chance of retaining this seat. In the 2000 election, the combined total of CA/PC votes would have equalled 17,500 votes, 500 more than the NDP and 7000 more than the Liberals! The NDP may be able to keep this seat (it definitly won't go Liberal now) but the Conservatives probably have the best shot.
21/04/04 Scott G.
Email: [hidden]
There aren't nearly enough Liberal predictions for this riding. Let's change that.
It appears that Cunningham will be the Liberal candidate. Tony Kuo and Tony Lee have gone public with their concerns that the fix was in for Cunningham to run, which is certainly bad PR for the Liberals. But perversely, the way the Liberals have fixed the nomination could help their candidate's campaign. It indicates that Martin's people want to see Cunningham elected, and that he'd play an important role in the government.
The Tories will at least be competitive. A right-wing party has finished in second place each time Robinson won, except for 1993, when the PC Party was on its way down and Reform on its way up. (The Liberal candidate also finished a close third in 1997, when high-profile party official Mobina Jaffer ran.) On the other hand, over the course of three elections, Reform and then the Alliance have been unable to win any ridings that include part of the city of Vancouver, or Robinson's riding, which is just outside of the city boundary, but still a fairly urban area.
As a late spring election now seems likely, with Robinson not running, Robinson's personal appeal means that the NDP's chances of keeping the riding are greatly reduced unless they can find another star candidate on short notice. Many people voted for Robinson who otherwise would've voted Liberal. On the other hand, former Robinson voters may be less likely to vote for a Paul Martin organizer. I'd second C. Hubley's suggestion that some of them will vote for the Greens, in large enough numbers to prevent the NDP winning, but not so many that the Greens finish ahead of the NDP.
Prediction: close Tory-Liberal race, maybe close three-way race with high-profile NDP candidate, with Cunningham's influence on Paul Martin and the resulting concentration of Liberal resources in this riding giving the Liberals the edge.
21/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
The Liberal Riding Association's toxic condemnation of Martin today has got to poison the waters for any Liberal, particularly if Cunningham is appointed. With Robinson not running again, there is plenty if loose votes out there and I would give the early lead to the Conservative candidate, George Drazenovic.
21/04/04 Jesse Hoffman
Let's face it. With the Conservative way down in BC from the last election, they cannot win Burnaby-Douglas without a star candidate. They don't have one. If any party would unseat the NDP here it would be the Liberals, however Mr Democratic Defecit Paul Martin is going to appoint the President of the BC Liberals Bill Cunnigham to run here, despite the fact that there are candidates who wish to seek the nomination, both of them Chinese Canadians. As a result, the Burnaby-douglas Liberal riding association is not happy with Martin at all. They are accusing him of racial discrimination, and the Liberals are looking really bad. This will hurt them big time in the riding. The NDP will, in all likelyhood be able to find a strong longtime party stalwart to run for them, and thus ensure an NDP hold.
21/04/04 mike
Email: [hidden]
It has been reported that the Liberals are not nominating a candidate cleanly, for Paul MArtin chose Cunningham to run, over two Asian-Canadians. This caused huge controversy, and in fact, both Asian nominees who were rejected by Martin wrote letters to him accusing him as being racist. This is not what the Liberals want, expecially with the recent turn of events in this riding. No Svend=no win for NDP. Racial Discrimination Allegations= no win for Liberals. All in all, the Conservatives have nothing going against them, so a clean win for the Tories.
19/04/04 RP.
Email: [hidden]
I bet that if Sven were actually still running, he'd still win. Too bad. It's a bit presumptuous to call this anything more than blown open, nobody can claim to have tied this up yet.
19/04/04 Jacob
Email: [hidden]
Too close to call now. I predicted a Conservative victory with Svend in the race. Now with Svend disgraced and finished, a lot of NDP voters will vote Liberal, likely for Bill Cunningham, President of LPC in BC. This will be an interesting fight between the CPC and Libs with the NDP vote collapsing into oblivion.
19/04/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
THis will be an easy NDP hold. Burnaby-Douglas in its various incarnations has been safe NDP territory since the 1950s. If Svend was able to win with a healthy majority in the NDP BC debacles of 1993, 1997 and 2000 when the NDP vote in BC was 16%, 18% and 11% respectively, the NDP will have no problem holding this seat with a huge majority when it is clear that the NDP vote in BC is set to at least double and probably triple to about 30%.
There are a whole slew of NDP elected officials in Burnaby and any one of them can hold this seat without even breaking a sweat!
19/04/04 mini phreek
Email: mini_phreek@hotmail.com
first he said hes stepping down as the candadate wile these issues are resolved, this does not mean he wont run at all, if he gets this resolved he will still run. that being said, it's interesting to note that svend's past run ins with the law have not hurt his election prospects, hes been arrested twice before at protests, as well as getting close to an international incadent with the Israli police a few years back. also lets consider Lorne Naystrom who was acussed of shop lifting a wile back, and he was still relected (he was latter aquited). if he gets it together svend will win again if he runs.
19/04/04 Mike D
My, my, my, what a bunch of confident Conservatives we have here. They seem to forget that the Conservative vote in BC, according to most polls, is about half what the CA received last election. Meanwhile, the NDP vote has more than doubled, possibly tripled, according to the last two polls.
More likely it will be an NDP-Liberal race. Whether it goes NDP or Liberal depends on how strong an NDP candidate is nominated, and since this is NDP-CCF territory going back to the days of Tommy Douglas, its highly likely the NDP will have a great candidate.
19/04/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
The shoplifting thing (and apparent depression) complicate things here a lot.
I'm not sure how this will work out... there's a chance he won't get prosecuted if the case is not deemed to be in the public interest.
Even if Robinson doesn't face charges, there's a possibility that he won't run again anyway for medical reasons.
I'll see how this case develops before making another prediction on this riding.
19/04/04 Sean Meades
Email: [hidden]
The conservatives need to wake up. The NDP have held this riding for a very long time, not just Svend. Look at some patterns in the municipal and provincial results. Then consider conservative support is actually DOWN in BC since the last election. The tories have about as much chance picking this one up as the marijuana party does. No matter who is chosen as the NDP candidate here, and I'm sure they'll be superb, this will be an NDP hold.
19/04/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
The incumbent effect in this riding now appears to be gone and I can't see the NDP obtaining much more than the 36% obtained in the previous election. If the Liberals are to make gains it would be in this riding adjacent to their existing holdings. The CPC may not be able to reach this far into the urban Vancouver core for a pick-up. I would call this as a toss-up for now.
19/04/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
Most of what's said above is now obsolete, for these reasons:
1. Svend Robinson is not running, after dropping out of the race under extreme stress.
2. The Green Party of Canada is polling 13% average across BC, and in Svend's riding, that number is much higher. Many of Svend's votes are perceived as "parked" Green votes.
3. The Liberals just recruited the last NDP Premier of BC
It's quite likely that the Green vote could even exceed the NDP's with Svend gone. That doesn't mean the Green will win, but, it might affect who rebuilds the left after the NDP is flushed; Remember, BC has always been polarized and a bellwether for the rest of the country politically; So, it's entirely possible that the Green rise and NDP fall might happen here first, as it seems to be also happening provincially.
17/04/04 JH
Email: [hidden]
A confession about misplacing someone else's rather expensive diamonds into his pocket seems to have Svend in a bit of trouble. If the Liberals were hot I'd say that they could turn this into a pickup but that's not the case at the moment. To his credit he did confess and I think whatever personal problems he has been having likely did play a big part as Robinson claims. It's difficult to tell how that would play out and may depend on when the election is called so I'd say this should be put in the "Too Close to Call" category.
16/04/04 SB
Svend Robinson has been able to keep this seat based on his own personal popularity. With his recent theft and emotional breakdown, there is little chance of Burnaby-Douglas sending another New Democrat to Ottawa.
16/04/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
Robinson had this one locked up--until he admitted to stealing Jewelery. Instead of quietly admitting it, he set up a whole news conference and got front page headlines from all the major newspapers from B.C. to Newfoundland. Everyone knows of him now, and I just don't see voters voting for him- he is ovbiously not well, to some degree a criminal and in some peoples views un embarassment to the riding. Robinson was always a controversial and sheky leader, and I jsut don't fell the his consituents will feel confertabel voting for him again. The Alliance/PC's both cam close to getting this one, and their tallies combined surpass Robinson's. If Robinson does not run, the NDP will still not win. Like said, the Conservatives would have presumably won last time and a lot of people voted for Robinson because he was Robinson, not because he was part of the NDP (and who would replace him on such short notice?--they'd try to rally ANYBODY!) If he does run, I just feel he pushed it too far for him to retain those "I am voting for Robinbson not NDP" votes.
16/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
WOW! Svend swiped some jewlery! Now he's not running as the NDP candidate. This changes EVERYTHING! We're certain that this site will be a flurry of Burnaby-Douglas comments. Thing is now this riding is no longer a sure bet for the NDP. We feel that a good chunk of voters were not NDP voters but Sven voters. Keep in mind that Sven did not get elected by a huge margin. The Canadian Alliance was a close second (33% to Sven's 36%). The polls show that NDP support has deflated in BC with the Conservatives picking up that support. The Liberals are struggling to keep David Anderson and Steven Owen alive, it's not likely that they're going to pick up any seats. However we now feel that this race is just too close to call and probably the Conservatives have an edge. Lets wait and see, certainly an interesting race now!
16/04/04 Jeffrey M.
Email: [hidden]
Svend is definitely not going to win now, after confessing today to having stolen a very expensive ring. I see two possibilities. First option: his support (or another NDP candidate) is divided between the Liberals and the NDP, and the Conservatives win (The CA + PC votes last time are in total greater than his).
Second option: The NDP loses more than 2/3 of its support to the Liberals, the liberals narrowly beat the Conservative candidate.
I think that the first scenario is more likely because there are many loyal NDP & Svend supporters in the Burnaby-Douglas riding where I go to university (SFU).
16/04/04 David
Email: [hidden]
No doubt that this is a Tory pickup with Svend out of the picture. The only reason he won the riding was personal populairity and a split right - without either of those the NDP has no chance of holding on.
16/04/04 B.A.S.
Email: [hidden]
Sticky fingers Svend has got to throw this one into the tossup category.
Will Svend still run?
Will voters rally around him or finally tire of his antics?
Will the Liberals smell the possibility for a victory and appoint cunningham?
Here is a very wild scenario. The Liberals smelling blood appoint Cunningham. The outrage in the riding makes people forget about the shoplifting. Cunningham doesn't even get his deposit back and Svend is returned to Ottawa yet again....
15/04/04 Michael Fox
Email: [hidden]
Svend announced that he is going on a little hiatus today after being caught stealing jewelry. I can't imagine that he'll be back. This tarnishes a stong NDP candidate and removes him from the running. This creates an opportunity for the Conservatives - my prediction on this riding is changed to a toss up for now.
15/04/04 Paulkney
Email: paulstickney@hotmail.com
Today Sven held a goofy press conference claiming he tried to return the ring he stole and couldn't find the owner so he contacted the police and is not running for re-election. This man is INSANE!!
The Liberal candidate parachuted in by Martin will not help them and the Conservative candidate will sneak this one off on election night!
15/04/04 John Smith
Email: [hidden]
Svend is announcing today that he is quitting federal politics, this development throws the race wide open, look for a Liberal win as a lot of Svend's supporters will go to the Liberals.
15/04/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
Now Svend is gone, the whole dynamic has changed. This ridingshould now swing to the Conservatives quite easily, based on the assumption that it is they who are most likely to defeat the Liberals.
That said, the NDP might benefit in some other ridings right across the country, with the departure of someone seen as too radical, and gave many people who might otherwise vote NDP cause for pause.
15/04/04 J. Windsor
The poor NDP...despite all the NDPers working this list going on about how this will always be an NDP riding, it was a Svend Robinson riding. I figured Svend had it, but now that Svend has just announced he's not running, it is GONE. Tory Lock.
15/04/04 Morty Hines
Svend Robinson has just announced that he won't be running again. If the NDP's most famour MP only held on by 1000 votes, whoever his replacement is won't stand a chance against a united right. What a pleasant suprise for the CPC.
15/04/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
Suddenly this is an open riding. Svend has decided not to run - 25 years an MP and now he suddenly steps down? Is he the father of the house at the moment (ie the longest continously serving MP)?
Without Svend, this is either a Liberal or CPC pick up - no real NDP chance at all. Polls suggest BC is utterly up in the air at the moment. If I had to guess at the moment, I would give the CPC the edge
Editor Note The longest serving MP is Hon. Charles Caccia, followed by Hon. Lorne Nystom. Robinson ties for third with Bill Blakie and Hon. David Kilgour
01/04/04 EP
Email: [hidden]
Not that it will make a lot of difference to the election outcome, but I think the fact that Cunningham is NOT being appointed is a sign that the PMO has not totally lost its marble to arrogance. Rumour has it the Liberal team in BC were frantically trying to push the deal through last night and were furstrated to no end when told by someone form Ottawa that it ain't gonna happen. Not entirely suprising, as I assume the PMO are quite aware of President Cunningham's shady reputation.

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