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Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale



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31/03/04 Gordon Reeve
Email:
While it will be close, I think the NDP's Charley King will take it. The new national poll that showed a NDP drop in BC has such a small pool of 100 people that it is hard to take serious. However, the information coming out about James Moore is serious. It's been revealed and covered that not only is he an extreme pro-lifer,but he also has made comments that are extremely hurtful to gays and lesbians. King is also taking away Moore's anti-establishment base, attacking Moore for being another typical Ottawa politician who flip-flops and skips votes. While it will be close, the attention of the campaign will give King the edge. King's campaign team have alot of political professionals who can do wonders with a guy like Moore.
30/03/04 Steve
Email: svgibson@sfu.ca
With the new polling, and Moore's profile, this is a safe seat. Who knows, the polls could change yet again, but for now Moore will be re-elected.
29/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
One name matters here - Mark Marrisen
How can he allow the Liberals to lose this one when he lives here?
His wife has the most organised provincial Liberal riding association - yes they are falling in popularity, but Gordon Campbell's government is markedly more popular in BC than Martin's government is.
But Moore is a hard worker, and no one can deny that. He will campaign and campaign hard.
This riding will not be decided till very late on election night and could be the one that decides the government
28/03/04 CS
Email: [hidden]
This riding will definetly go Conservative.
James Moore is one of the most high profile and respected Conservative MPs that BC has sent to Ottawa. He is constantly speaking up on issues important to his community and getting recognition for it.
Furthermore, his support reaches beyond party lines. Many people who hold views that would traditionally align them more with the NDP are strong supporters of James because they admire the fact that he is hard working, down-to-earth and respectful of their needs, opinions and expectations.
In addition, Moore has put together a very strong re-election campaign and is way ahead of both King and Peck in terms of his readiness to wage a campaign.
With regards to Peck and King: Peck is without a doubt the worst possible candidate the Liberals could have nominated. He has been defeated time and time again and has no credibility. Not only that but much of the Liberal organization in the riding is quite upset with Peck and is refusing to work on his campaign.
King has a very inexperienced and small campaign team and is running a very negative and fanatical campaign which is sure to backfire. He may do better than Peck but he will definetly not defeat Moore.
James Moore will be re-elected in this riding.
28/03/04 NDP Newbie
Email: [hidden]
Apparently James Moore supporters fought dirty to help rig the nomination for Moore:
http://www.rabble.ca/babble/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic&f=1&t=002482
Definitely not good.
Additionally, fascist hate-monger Adam Yoshida (www.adamyoshia.com) is on the riding association, which further hurts the Conservatives.
With a resurgent NDP, a strong NDP candidate in Charley King, and a CONservative Party running this riding like a banana republic, I'll give this one to the NDP.
28/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
New poll numbers are in, the biggest change is in BC and it isn't in the NDP's favor. In fact the NDP are now in thrid, far behind the Conservatives. As of now, the Conservatives are likely to keep most of their currently held ridings such as this one.
27/03/04 T.S.
Email: [hidden]
The riding is too close to call, but I'd have to say that the NDP has a very good chance. A lot has been said here about the riding being favourable to a moderate 'centrist' candidate and the NDP has got one in Charley King. The Liberals are irrelevent in this riding and Moore is looking anything but moderate these days, especialy with his comments on abortion. The centre vote will likely park itself with King. He has proven to be a tough competitor with a lot of appeal to the grassroots 'anti-establishment' voter. After an intense 5 week campaign and increased media presence, King could take the riding.
27/03/04 Ghoris
Email:
I think it's time to call this one for the Conservatives. Today's Ipsos-Reid poll showed the Conservatives up 11% in B.C. to 38% and the NDP down the same amount to just 18%. This just confirms the historical pattern of the Alliance polling miserably in B.C. between elections then shooting up in the pre-writ and writ period. While the NDP can still hope to pick up a few more seats in B.C. this time out, this won't be one of them. Conservative hold.
24/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
This area has been one of the fastest growing in metro Vancouver over the past 15 years and, as such, the demographics have changed somewhat. As a previous poster has stated, two of the largest developments come to mind - Citadel Heights in Port Coquitlam, which is virtually built out, and Westwood Plateau in Coquitlam, which is still building out. Based upon my familiarity with these two developments, the voting preferences would suggest centre and centre/right patterns, which likely favours the incumbent. While both the NDP as well as the Liberals will increase their vote in this riding, such increases will likely not be large enough to surmount the re-election of the incumbent.
24/03/04 FP
Email:
I'm not ready to call this one yet. Frankly, I think it is way too early for anyone to make a prediction here. What we do know about this riding, is that MP James Moore is facing a very strong, credible challenger in Charley King, who seems to be leading a re-surgence of the NDP federally in this area. Whether or not, King will be able to knock off Moore remains to be seen. But we do know that it will be close, and that the Federal Liberals here seems to have disappeared into irrelevance. I also wanted to make mention that I think this riding is more winnable for the NDP then New West-Coq. First off, King is a much stronger candidate then the one in New West-Coq. and although things might be tough for the NDP on Westwood Plateau, there are very few people there who can actually vote. Port Coquitlam is a much stronger NDP area then Coquitlam or New Westminster and I think that will benefit King.
23/03/04 KC
Email: [hidden]
This submission is not an actual prediction, but a friendly reminder to the brains behind this project. The federal riding Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam encompasses the BC provincial riding of Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, what I would say is a pretty infamous riding in the history of the Elections Prediction Project (http://www.electionprediction.org/2001_bc/riding/pkm.html).
Definitely keep your guard up when considering submissions on this riding.
20/03/04 JRFD
Email: [hidden]
Those predicting a Conservative win here are unfortunately right. Charley King's supporters are a very enthusiastic bunch and I salute them for that, but unfortunately they are not very realistic. Anyone truly in the know within the party knows this. James Moore has actually made a name for himself and is not a weak MP. The Liberal candidate is weak though and the NDP will come in second. It is conceivable that the NDP could win, but highly improbable. That being said, King is a strong candidate, and I doubt this will be the last we see of him
20/03/04 Ula La
Email: ulala76@hotmail.com
James Moore does not stand a chance in this riding...his own party can't even rally around Moore and Harper! Take a look at the returns for the Con leadership (http://www.conservative.ca/display.asp?doc_id=65): Harper's return WAS THE LOWEST WEST OF THE MANITOBA BORDER (63.15%) for a Con held riding!(Stronach had 19%, Clement 17%). If Harper can't even rally die hard Cons in this riding, how can Moore even think he'll pull enough Liberals away to maintain his seat...let alone maintain traditional Cons. This one's not even a contest: NDP's King has it!
20/03/04 G.Venatelli
Email: venatelli_2@hotmail.com
I see the NDP are up to dirty games in this riding. (I predict the next bunch of anonymous posts here will have people screaming "i'm not NDP..." and so on). I live in New West where the NDP might actually have a chance, but there is no way the Conservatives will lose this riding. Conservatives pretty much always win this area 1980 conservative, 1983 conservative, 1984 conservative, 1988 NDP over free trade, 1993 reform, 1997 reform, 2000 alliance. And look at the numbers on this website on the side part. The combined right vote is well over 50percent. Also I don't know who the NDP person on this site is trying to mislead about Moore. He is very well respect by all parties and the area. Like I said I live in New West and am active in municipal races but even people here really know and respect Moore. He is a strong and popular politician who will win because of his party and his own strengths. The Liberals are crashing everywhere but especially in BC, and the NDP are not going to go from 9percent to victory. My guess conservative 50, liberal 25, ndp 20.
20/03/04 Jeff Davis
Email: [hidden]
I hate to say it, but I think this will be a Conservative hold unless they fall in the polls by a lot more. The NDP will do way better than last time and have a great candidate but the real priority riding for the NDP in the Port Moody/Coquitlam area is the New Westminster Coquitlam seat. "Up the hill" here is not so great for the NDP, and this is what I hear from some of the more experienced NDP activist from Coquitlam.
20/03/04 K. H.
Email: [hidden]
The Conservative incumbent in this riding is not known at all by the residents. He has been quoted in the news lately as saying some pretty outrageous things, and people are increasingly unhappy with him
Charley King and the NDP team are quickly making up any distance between themselves and James Moore, and will more than definitely surpass any wild expectations and take this riding.
19/03/04 V.D.
Email: [hidden]
I'd say the NDP posters are being overly enthusiastic. At this point it would seem the conservatives have this seat, especially with a strong performing MP like Moore. Burnaby-New Westminster and New Westminster-Coquitlam have more of a chance of going NDP i think. The NDP will probably replace the liberals as the second choice in this riding, but as it stands now (the campaign has yet to begin), it's a conservative hold.
19/03/04 WL
Email: [hidden]
At first glance, this appears like a weak riding for the NDP. BUT, the 2000 election results mean very little. The party was polling 11% and the NDP candidate last time was very weak. This time the party is polling 30+ % and they have a strong, impressive candidate. Since I live in the riding, I also know that is made up of a few different areas:
1)Port Coquitlam--the largest part of the riding, win it, you win the seat. It is very blue collar, and a traditional NDP stronghold. King should do extremely well here. Within PoCo, there is also Citadel Heights, which is middle class. But King will do well here. He's well known as a popular local teacher and alot of his base of campaign workers live here. Again, his centrist positions will work.
2)Westwood Plateau--smaller part of riding. Many immigrants. Very Upper Class. Many of the resident arent legally able to vote. Should be a split between Libs/CPC, with Libs take the majority with their appeal to ethnic voters.
3)Port Moody/Heritage Woods--smaller part of riding. Middle Class. King will have appeal, so will Moore. King's rallying cry "fighting for the forgotten middle class" will go ever well. King/Moore split.
Moore,although regarded as skilled by Ottawa pundits, has not paid attention to this riding and he will pay for it. King has said that Moore has "gone Ottawa". I think that sums up what many here feel.
19/03/04 Arthur Zink
Email: [hidden]
Two words: Eva Staley. Moore's constituency assistant is a complete nightmare, and with him in Ottawa all the time, having forgotten all about us here in the riding, we're stuck dealing with this beech. The fact that Moore keeps her in this position just really goes to show how little he cares. Any of the voters who have had the misfortune of dealing with her certainly will want Moore out of office.
18/03/04 ME
Email: [hidden]
NDP Pick up. With the party polling ahead of the Conservative at around 30% this riding should be a strong one for the NDP. NDP Candidate Charley King is campaigning on a platform that is appealing to alot of both Fed Libs and old Reformers. Lots of folks in this community feel Moore has forgotten all about them. NDP BC strength plus strength of King and his campaign should make this a win for the New Dems.
18/03/04 M.W.
Email: mijawara@yahoo.com
After Van Kingsway and Burnaby-New West, this is the Lower Mainland seat where New Democrats are investing their highest hopes. Charley King will take the NDP nomination on March 21, and he's already shown himself to be a lively and combative campaigner. Conservative incumbent James Moore is one of his party's young stars and a top performer in the Commons, but his recent public statements seem to indicate he's rattled by the dirt King is throwing (especially re: some of Moore's past comments on abortion rights). Hey, Moore won in 2000 with nearly 50% of the votes within the new riding's boundaries, but the NDP is up threefold in BC and the Lib candidate is not even in the game. Give Layton and King a five-week spring campaign and they'll turn this riding orange.
18/03/04 TS
Email: [hidden]
This riding has got to be considered a strong possible NDP pick-up. The NDP candidate is running hard with moderate/centrist/anti-establishment positions and messaging. It looks like municipal politicians and strong community groups are also rallying around him. Last time, the NDP didnt do well here, but voters turned to Moore to get rid of Sekora and in many ways he has been worse. Moore has been a bad community-MP in a riding that is used to strong ones. King will win this on his strength and the 30% support for the NDP in BC. Moore's ties to the BC LIBS will also hurt.
18/03/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
I think those postings in favor for the NDP are not credible. This riding is not the same as it was in the 1980s. I live in this riding. This is not a NDP riding. New immigrants, like myself, vote mostly Liberal, or Conservatives. Just look at the year 2000 result, the NDP did not even hit about the 10% mark. Personally I am undecided between the liberals and the conservatives. I just do not see this middle-class, and upper-middle-class riding voting for the NDP. The chances are this riding will remain conservative at the next election.
17/03/04 Gary Merlin
Email: [hidden]
This riding was traditional NDP right up until Sharon Hayes got in about a decade ago. The only reason people voted for Hayes in the first place is because she was Reform, and therefore seen as 'anti-establishment'. I think it's pretty clear to everyone who lives here that the incumbent, James Moore of the CPC, is 100% old-boy establishment. He's an old man in a young person's body (albeit a really fat one). I voted for the Alliance last time, but only because I wanted the greasy-palmed Lou Sekora gone. As much as I'm personally a conservative, I just can't bring myself to vote for Moore. He has been horrible as an MP and has failed to even consult with, let alone represent, our community. I want someone who can stand up to the establishment, not someone who IS the establishment like Moore is. I think the NDP candidate is being really aggressive right out of the gate, and therefore has a good shot at unseating Moore. He'll have to keep up the publicity though, and continue to drive home the point that he's an anti-establishment moderate. At least he's already got a HUGE one up on Moore when it comes to one thing: Moore hadn't worked a single day in his life before being in the "right place at the right time" to get this seat. At least the NDP candidate is a school teacher and has had a real job and understands the plight of the "middle class working poor" (of which I am one). My family has had dealings with Moore's office - all of them horrible disasters. His assistant is even a shrew who turns people away at the door. Moore has lost my vote this time, and I'm considering my options. But I think the riding could very well end up going back to it's anti-establishment NDP roots this time around.
17/03/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
In 2000, the Alliance took almost 50% of the popular vote in BC. By all accounts, the new CPC will be lucky to get half that this time. They have totally turned off British Columbians on everything from being in favour of sending Canadian troops to Iraq to being against same sex marriage and marijuana decriminalization. BC is the most anti-American socially Liberal province in Canada. This riding was solid NDP turf before the Reform apostasy took hold. With the NDP vote in BC set to go from 11% in 2000 to a more traditional 30% or so, this riding has to be considered low hanging fruit.
16/03/04 am
Email: adam_maxcy1@excite.com
i will be interesting to see which way this riding goes.this has historically ndp and i expect the ndp take this seat away from the conservatives because they have the unpopular provincial ndp to get many of there seats and think allot of the tradional ndp seats in bc will go back to the ndp .the liberals don't stand a chance because of the provincial scandal locally and federaly and liberal premier gordon campbell is not popular.
15/03/04 Adam Teiichi Yoshida
Email: ayoshida@fas.harvard.edu
The Liberals have nominated Kwangul Peck in this riding- he's very, very, very weak as a candidate. He's lost twice before (and badly so). This is not an NDP riding, by any stretch of the imagination. Moore is relatively popular locally.
I'd call it 45% Conservative, 25% Liberal, 20% NDP. If he runs a very good campaign, King might outpoll Peck.
15/03/04 L.B.
Email: [hidden]
James Moore will win EASILY. Probably with well over 50%. He is very popular locally, seen as a rising figure nationally, and should hold this riding no problem. He won last time by 12,000 votes, before the merger, with Stockwell Day, and without any experience.
The first post here was put up by people on the NDP candidate's campaign.
The combined PC-CA vote in this riding is almost 60%. The NDP received 9% last time, the Liberals have a very weak and divisive candidate in Kwangyul Peck. Moore/Conservative will win.
27/02/04 FG
Email:
This is an interesting riding. Historically, it has been NDP. The results of 2000 though showed a strong win for Conserv. James Moore. This time, however, the NDP will take it. The reasons being: -Moore has been a horrible MP. He is not seen at community events. Has had well-publicized flip-flops and skipped votes. And he recived many votes last time, as voters were determined to turf Liberal Lou Sekora. The NDP's candidate is a maverick. He calls for reviews of govt spending, tough on crime, strong pro-BC voice, middle-income tax relief, etc. He has also gained significant support. Over a dozen municipal councillors, school trustees, and mayors, former MLAs and the Polish/Catholic community. A different kind of New Democrat like King will eat into both the Libs vote (who are nowhere in BC with scandal) and the Conserv votes (old reformers, etc who don't like Moore and think BC is losing it's reform party to the old conserv).


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