Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:33 PM 16/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:21 PM 22/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Democratic Reform BC
Jen Fisher-Bradley
Scott Fraser
James Dominic King
Michael "Mik" Mann
Green Party
Jack Thornburgh
BC Liberal
Gillian Trumper

BC Liberals:
TRUMPER, Gillian
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:7.73%
Area (km2):8857
Pop Density:5.73

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Comox Valley
Malahat-Juan de Fuca
North Island

16 05 05 Island Gal
This one will go NDP, but will be close. Despite the previous problems caused by Dave Thompson's resignation, the animosity toward Gillian Trumper is intense. Scott Fraser won nearly every poll on the Alberni side of the riding in the federal election and did very well on the Qualicum side, too. Normally I'd say you can't transfer federal results to provincial, but in this case, along with the animosity against the Liberals for the cutbacks to West Coast General Hospital, this one will go NDP
10 05 05 Mikey
Interesting to not that the Tyee Election Central has moved this one into the NDP column. Looks like bad news for Trumper.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
This is probably an average Vancouver Island riding, so if the NDP has a six point lead on the Island, they probably have a six point lead in this riding since they are stronger in ridings like Nanaimo, while weaker and will probably lose in ridings such as Nanaimo-Parksville. Considering the liberals were trailing by 20 points on the Island a year ago, this is still winneable, although an uphill battle.
01 05 05 an STV and free vote proponent
The political integrity of Mr Fraser looks questionable in the eyes of the voters. He allowed the party to pressure Norma Emerson, the runner up in the nomination race after Thompson, to withdraw, so that he could be the electable male. Voters will see this as more backroom meddling, while 90% of Canadians want to see more women elected to office. It's well known that Fraser wants to go to Ottawa, not Victoria, his team is therfore weak because the heart of the local constituency supports Emerson. This will play out during the campaign since BC-STV and fairness in elections is a big issue for the Democratic Reform candidate, Fisher-Bradley and also to local NDP supporters, who are stinging from the lack of fairness in the nomination race. They might just swing at the last minute.
26 04 05 politicswoman
The NDP's Dave Thompson really hurt the party's chances by lying about his employment with the Vancouver Police Department
15 04 05 mikey
Scott Fraser is a very strong candidate. He was a candidate in the last federal election. In fact he won 32 of the 36 polls in the Alberni-qualicum area. He will win this seat for the NDP
Date 07 04 05 M. Lunn
With the NDP withdrawing their candidate, I am moving this as too close to call until they chose a new candidate. Even if they do pull this off, it won't be by as big as margin as they would have had the allegations against David Thompson not come forward. The liberals will win most of the polls in Qualicum Beach, which went conservative federally, while Port Alberni and Tofino will go mostly NDP as the NDP won most of the polls there. Whichever side has the larger population and turnout will determine the winner.
02 04 05
Dave thompson has pulled out as the candidate in Alberni-Qulaicum after allegations against him. The NDP are currently without a candidate.
05 04 05 Jack Bauer
The recent resignation of the NDP's candidate raises a credibility question. I would suspect some people could be swayed away from the NDP.
This riding will be split down the highway between retirees in Qualicum and union in Alberni. But Alberni is not exclusively union, and integrity issues may sink the NDP.
02 04 05 Politics101
With the NDP candidate set to withdraw from the campaign because of an incident some 16 years ago Gillian Trumper will have a better chance of getting re-elected especially with the Liberal support in the Qualicum area.
02 04 05 Interested Voter
NDP candidate pulled out today due to allegations printed against him. Will be tough for the party to recover at this late date. Trumper by a few points.
02 04 05 Crystal Ball
Gee whiz! Tough for the NDP to win when they don't have a candidate! The NDP are not the slam dunk people think they are in this riding and the withdrawal of the NDP candidate this weekend due to Vancouver Sun dredging makes this prediction even more tenuous. Forget all that you know about this riding. This is not the Alberni of old. In 2001, Qualicum Beach was added to this riding, and with it, an extra 40-50% of the riding's population. Qualicum Beach is a very conservative area. Liberal Gillian Trumper is respected on the Alberni side and will have bushels of Liberal votes on the east coast. Will it be close? Yes. Can the NDP win? Yes. Can the Libs win? Yes. And after the NDP shenanigans of this weekend, I expect they will.
03 04 05 Mark Robinson
With the NDP candidate resigning and pulling out of the campaign, Trumper must have one wicked smile on her face.
This riding will go to the BC Liberals if the NDP don't get a good candidate at a moment's notice.
I'm putting this riding at "too close" because no one knows the other candidate yet!
04 04 05 A. Vancouverite
Two notes. One my previous reply wasn't directed to Michael Smith, it was a diffrent person whose post was put in this riding and then moved by the editors into the Nanaimo-Parksville riding.
Two it appears that David Thompson isn't the NDP candidate in the riding anymore. This could slow the local NDP campaign and give Trumper a bit more hope. Nonethless the federal NDP recieved 32% in the federal riding of Nanaimo-Alberni and much of that support was concentrated in the provincial riding of Alberni-Qualicum as opposed to the provincial riding of Nanimo-Parksville portion where the federal Conservatives recieved a stronger portion of their 39%. With the provincial NDP pretty much guranteed to get at least 10 to 15% more than their federal cousins I'll stick with the NDP prediction.
25 03 05 A. Vancouverite
Mike, The riding didn't go to the Liberals in 96'. I'm not sure what your talking about. Also the reform vote will not go on mass to the Liberals some of that was a protest against the NDP, that wasn't comfortable with the Liberals. This vote probably went Liberal in 2001, but it will break in many directions now. Besides the NDP still won in 96'. In any case I suspect they'll win again now. Liberal incumbancy in this area, hard hit by the softwood lumber dispute, that the local MLA and in-effective forestry minister haven't dealt with, will mean this riding will be in the NDP column come election night.
15 03 05 michael smith
i have to go with the ndp on this one. gillian trumper has been ineffective as an MLA and lost alot of her supporters over the hospital incident. qualicum is not the conservative bastion that alot of people believe it to be. many seniors in this area (not to mention the province) are quite upset with the liberals over their handling of pharmacare. also, qualicum has only a small portion of the overall voters in this riding. tofino/uclulet have more in total than qualicum and while historically there is a strong tendency towards the greens in tofino, people are realizing the greens are quite right wing economically and are starting to retun to the NDP
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
Although the Liberals have a made a minor recovery on the Island, I really can't see them holding this one. Gillian Trumper has lost three times and this will probably be her fourth lost. The only area they have support is Qualicum Beach, which is offset by the heavily unionized and left leaning Port Alberni. The Liberals would be better to focus on the neighbouring riding of Nanaimo-Parksville, where they might have a chance at winning
21-Feb-05 P. Kelly
Traditional voting patterns are in effect in BC again and despite a fairly large conservative voting bloc in Qualicum, this seat should return to the NDP fold without much difficulty.

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