Election Prediction Project

Burnaby North
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
10:11 PM 15/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:52 PM 26/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Green Party
Richard Brand
Pietro Calendino
Democratic Reform BC
Matthew R. Laird
BC Liberal
Richard T. Lee

BC Liberals:
LEE, Richard T.
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:8.73%
Area (km2):25
Pop Density:2050.40

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
North Vancouver-Seymour

14 05 05 M. Lunn
Having knocked on many doors in this riding, I believe the liberals will pull it off. There are certainly more supporters than opponents. This riding is 30% Chinese and even one of the NDP Chinese candidates, Gabriel Yiu from the neighbouring riding admitted most Chinese support the liberals. The main thing is ensuring the liberal supporters show up on election day since I believe that the NDP supporters in the riding are more likely to show up than the liberal ones. If there is a high voter turnout as I suspect, liberal win, a low voter turnout, NDP win.
09 05 05 Mr. North
Am I the only one who think the winds are shifting in Burnaby North? It is surprising no-one is posting about the situation Pietro Calendio finds himself in. The Hells Angel story on the news is not a good thing for the NDP candidate. I think it has given a new life to the campaign that could see Richard Lee pull this one out in the end.
30 04 05 M. Lunn
As someone who has been door canvassing for Richard Lee, I can tell you the response at the doors has been very positive on the whole. Even in the polls that the liberals narrowly lost in 1996, there have been more positive responses than negative. The only reason the liberals could lose this is it is difficult to reach those living in apartments and those renting basement suites who are generally more likely to vote NDP. Also NDP voters will almost certainly show up at the polls while liberal supporters are less likely to show up. I can say with almost certainty there are more liberal supporters than NDP supporters in this riding, but due to the fact they are less likely to show up at the polls, this should make it a close race.
22 04 05 Al
Pietro Calendino will win by a hair's breadth in this riding. While the "Brentwood Mall" crowd may think the Liberals have feathered their nest everyone on East Hastings Street knows that the NDP's municipal team (including Calendino) has been the driving force in local commercial life.
15 04 05 M. Lunn
This is a bellwether riding that always goes with the winner. With the NDP trailing the liberals even further after each successive poll, it is clear the liberals will be re-elected provincially therefore John Nuarney will win if the Liberals win the election as they will.
12 04 05 BC Voter
I'm surprised this riding has been plunked into the NDP column so quickly. Sure, Lee is a completely useless MLA, but he is Chinese in a heavily East Asian riding, which will give him automatic votes. The riding has become increasingly populated with conservative Asians, as the older, NDP voters die or leave. How well the NDP brings out their vote will be what tips the scale either way in this riding.
31 03 05 Chinese voter
I think BC Liberals will take this riding.
If you are looking at 96 result, please note that there were 2 Richard Lee running. Richard T. Lee for BC Liberals and Richard A.Y. Lee for PDA. So Richard Lees get 46% of the total vote which tie what the NDP get.
Another factor is the amount of high rises being built around Brentwood Mall. These high rises are built 3-4 years ago, so they are not reflected in 96 or 01 result. If you check the real estate listing, you will find that they cost around $300K for a 800 sq. ft. appartment. In fact, 2001 census data already showed average property value for housing in Burnaby North is $300K. http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/cen01/profiles/PED_6.pdf. These are middle to high-income earner housing, not your typical NDP neighbourhood.
Given all these facts, I predict Richard Lee will win this riding.
02 04 05
Even though the NDP has won this riding for the past 30 years, it has always been close and many of those times they would have won had it not been for vote splitting. In 1983, the combined Social Credit/Progressive Conservative vote would have been enough to knock off the NDP, 1986 the combined Socred/liberal vote also would have done it and in 1996 the combined liberal/Reform/PDA vote would have done it. When you add in the fact the Greens, as weak as they are in the polls will split the vote on the left, this makes things look good for the liberals. Also the fact the liberals have a 14 point lead in the Lower Mainland looks promising, but there are still a few factors that could hurt them. Even though Richard Lee is a federal liberal, many federal liberals see the BC Liberals as conservatives therefore the left-leaning liberals will likely go NDP. While it is true this riding went NDP federally, it was a tight three way race and the NDP only got 34%. Provincially the NDP will certainly get higher just as the liberals will get more than the 27% the Conservatives got so the real battle is how the federal liberals go. Add to the fact that the Conservatives won the advanced polls in this riding and likely lost it due to Randy White's stupid comments about using the notwithstanding clause means many of the liberal voters are probably conservative, but not ultra-conservative which is why they couldn't stomach voting conservative federally, but will vote liberal provincially.
10 03 05 KH
This riding is growing, and that helps the Liberals. With this being a "dead heat" riding in 1996 when the NDP got their majority, I say the Liberals take it this time when they win their 2nd majority.
26 02 05 M. Lunn
I think this one is definitely too close to call. While it has gone NDP for the past 30 years prior to 2001, the NDP never won by more than 5% except in 1991 when you had the Liberal/Socred split, therefore I think a liberal win is very possibly. Add to the fact there is a large Chinese community who will likely support Richard Lee. Until either the NDP or Liberals are able to show a lead in several polls for a sustained period of time, I don't think this riding can be called. The Liberals would probably win it today based on the most recent Mustel Poll that gave them a six point lead, but that lead may not necessarily stay for long since much of that was probably due to the good news budget.
27 02 05 Brent
A traditional NDP stronghold, and the most likely to return to the Dippers on election day--Mr. Calendino is a familiar face being the previous incumbent.
02 03 05 S.G.
Unlike a 'battle of the titans," this seat is a battle of the also-rans. Both main candidates ran in 96, 01, and now in 2005. Both candidates did NOT distinguish themselves as MLA's very much. Richard Lee hasn't done a lot, from what I can tell, and Pietro was far from outstanding-more embarrassing. I think the 1996 result is an indicator of how this seat will go, whoever wins, will not win by much. I don't think it's automatically an NDP seat though, the seat is different than it has been in the "past 30 years." But, one will have to see what the polls say closer to the election, if the NDP is still high/at a "traditional level," then yeah, odds are it'll go NDP, but I wouldn't say just yet.
02 03 05 Bill Smith
Richard T. Lee has several advantages in Burnaby North that may help him hold onto the riding in his rubber match with opinionated city councilor and his MLA predecessor Pietro Calendino. Lee will benefit from the influx of Chinese voters who make up an ever increasing percentage of this riding which has traditionally been dominated by voters of Italian decent. Economic recovery should play well in this riding as Brentwood Mall is finally making a comeback after nearly dying in the wake of the booming growth of Metropolis and Metrotown over the previous 15 years. The stretch of the Lougheed in Burnaby North is experiencing incredible growth with new businesses and apartment towers springing up all along the highway.
24 02 05 BLJ
With the NDP returning to their normal levels of support provincially, this seat, which has been held by the NDP for well over 30 years (prior to 2001), will again likely return an NDP member.
25 02 05 Brian
Calendino was a good MLA and will be coming back this time around. Bill Siksay and Peter Julian will likely help out in the Burnaby campaigns, giving the Burnaby candidates a serious edge.

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