Election Prediction Project

Comox Valley
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:33 PM 16/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:54 PM 26/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Green Party
Chris Aikman
People's Front
Barbara Biley
Andrew Black
Democratic Reform BC
Don Davis
Miracle Emery
Refed BC
Mel Garden
BC Liberal
Stan Hagen
Work Less
Bruce O'Hara

BC Liberals:
HAGEN, Hon. Stan
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:16.47%
Area (km2):1736
Pop Density:31.63

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
North Island

16 05 05 Island Gal
While the results here will be very, very close, perhaps even involving a recount, Andrew Black will win. Hagen is extremely unpopular and many have suffered from the Liberal cuts, especially those cuts by Hagen's own Ministry, Children and Families. Most progressive voters have decided to abandon the Green Party, vote strategically and vote NDP. Perpetual Green candidate Pam Munroe did not run for the Greens this time, and although this year's candidate, Chris Aikman, is a very credible candidate, he is still not very well known in the progressive community. He also made a strange statement at an all-candidate's forum sponsored by the Women's resource centre last week that turned off women and will push those who hadn't yet decided to vote NDP. Black was excellent at that forum. Hagen looks like yesterday's man next to young and energetic Black. Black will win this one by a nose.
14 05 05 P. Kelly
The lastest Ipsos-Reid suggests that the NDP has expanded its lead on the Island to 10 points. This is the margin they won the Island by in 1996 - and won Comox Valley. My own father lives in Courtenay, who usually votes Liberal (Socred in previous days) hints to me that even among usual-liberals, that they're not voting for Hagen again. Its time to move this to an NDP seat.
09 05 05 full
Hagen is popular with only with -his- people. While it will be close race, expect much of the Green vote to dissolve as more left leaning individuals realize the seriousness of the matter and side with the NDP.
Although it is an inaccurate indication, it should be noted that there are far more NDP lawn signs on private property than those of its opponents in the Valley. Liberal signs dominate public land (i.e. intersections, road sides etc.) while NDP signs are manifesting in the yards of the citizens. What might this suggest? In my opinion, it means change is in the air.
04 05 05 Concerned Voter
This is the part of Vancouver Island North that was the strongest for the Conservatives in the 2004 federal election. Judging by those results, Stan Hagen should win re-election here. I'm not sure if the whole fish farming debate will have as much of an impact here, but I don't think residents of northern Vancouver Island want to see those jobs eliminated because of ideology and partisan politics.
04 05 05 Valley Girl
Stan Hagen will win this riding again. He is popular with the people and is an experienced voice in politics. The economy in the Comox Valley is hopping and construction is booming; no one wants to see a stop to that.
30 04 05 M. Lunn
According to the most recent ipsos-reid poll the liberals are trailing the NDP by 6% on the Island. However, the one group they are ahead of the NDP are amongst those over 55. Since this riding has a large population over 55, the NDP, if they win this, will likely win it by less than 6% meaning a possible liberal win. I don't think this is as secure as Nanaimo-Parksville, but not as vulnerable as North Island or Alberni-Qualicum and certainly not Nanaimo, which the liberals have virtually no chance of winning.
16 04 05 BLJ
This riding may be one of the very few where the Greens may actually poach just enough votes from the NDP to permit the Liberals a hold.
7 of the Greens top 10 results in 2001 were on Vancouver Island.
5 of the Greens top 10 B.C. federal results in 2004 were also on Vancouver Island.
In 1996, the Greens obtained their best Vancouver Island result in this riding. In 2001 (outside of Victoria and Saanich North) the Greens also obtained their best Vancouver Island result in this riding.
Conversely, in 1996 the Reform party also obtained their best Vancouver Island result in this riding. Since there is no right-leaning party to usurp their role in 2005, most of this voting contigent will likely break toward the Liberals.
OTOH, DRBC will probably play the same role as the former PDA resulting in a likely wash between NDP/Liberal voters.
As an aside, and as has been occassionaly reported in various media, several years ago WestJet commenced regularly scheduled flights out of Comox to both Edmonton and Calgary. Many of these Albertans have purchased recreational/retirement properties within the riding, which gives a sense of where this riding is trending politically.
This riding was held by Social Credit from 1956 to 1972. In 1975, the NDP held this seat by less than a 1% margin when there was also a 15% PC vote. In 1979, the NDP held the seat when there was a 10% PC vote and again held the seat in 1983 by a 1% margin before Stan Hagen gained the seat for the Socreds in 1986. Historically, the combined centre-right vote in this riding has been greater than the centre-left.
I would think that Stan Hagen's incumbancy factor is also worth at least 2% - 3%.
I believe it's a toss-up and certainly the most interesting island riding to watch on election night as well as the Liberal's 5th best shot at holding a seat on the island.
14 04 05 M. Lunn
With Stan Hagen being a cabinet minister and the fact the liberals will lose most of their Island seats you can bet they will put a lot of effort into this riding will leave many of the others to fend for themselves. The NDP on the other hand will probably target all the ridings equally since if they wish to form government or a strong opposition they cannot afford to not win ridings like North Island, Nanaimo, Cowichan-Ladysmith, Esquimalt-Metchosin, and Malahat-Juan de Fuca. If they ignore those ridings, they could easily be caught be surprise on election night. Besides Stan Hagen is a nice guy and nice guys only lose in ridings that clearly favour the opponent not in swing ridings. As long as this stays a swing riding, Stan Hagen will survive, but otherwise who could face some problems.
09 04 05 A. Vancouverite
Intresting numbers, but I'm sure you've noticed the lack of an NDP campaign? Compare that with the tenacious three-way campaign in BC, and especially in close ridings like Van Island North, during the federal campaign. If the goverment releases a good news budget and it's allies are spending money on advertising, they'll get a bump in the polls. Especially compared to the sedate opposition campaign a few BCTF adds during an awards show isn't going to do much of anything, compared to "our plan is working" X one hundred.
Clearly the NDP and its allies have less the provincial Liberals and its allies, meaning they'll need to spend it later on so as to not run out. Once they actually campaign somemore those polling numbers should tighten up, especially if they hammer the Liberals on Gordon Campbell himself. And that will mean this riding will likely go NDP, relativley close, but still NDP.
08 04 05 BLJ
I've done a little number crunching and incorporated the federal election results within the confines of the provincial riding of Comox Valley, which are as follows:
Liberal: 6,540 (23.5%) - NDP: 9,053 (32.6%) - CPC: 9,526 (34.3%) - Green:
2,663 (9.6%)
Keep in mind that the then May/June 2004 provincial poll results were as follows:
Ipsos: NDP: 44%, Liberal: 37%, Green: 11%;
Mustel: NDP: 45%, Liberal: 36%, Green: 10%;
06 04 05 A. Vancouverite
...you played up Stan Hagen's alleged niceness while ignoring the obvious fact that Health Care will be a big issue, that the Liberals will have the disadvantage with. BR>With regards to the federal Liberal voters, I would disagree that the majority, or plurality of them would automatically vote for the BC Liberals. If the NDP gets 40% province wide, a likely scenario, then they'd probably need to get at least 45% of federal Liberal voters to vote for them, something that isn't out of the question. Furthermore the softwood lumber issue will still be important in this riding, and since the provincial government hasn't solved it yet, that will probably hurt them some more. The riding should be close, but I'll stick with the NDP prediction.
30 03 05 Mike Mulroney
Now your argument that seniors in the riding who voted BC Liberal in the past will have died is ridiculous. The riding’s population hasn’t dropped since the last elections; in fact, it has increased. And who has been moving to the riding? More seniors! The rate of death of seniors in the riding is lower than the rate of influx.
More seniors than non-seniors go to all-candidates’ forums and meet their candidates. Since Stan Hagen is a “nice guy,” he will be popular among those who take the chance to meet their candidates.
This riding did come close to going NDP federally and the NDP fare better provincially than federally. They won 34.8% in the North Island riding to the Conservative’s 35%, and the Liberal’s 21.6%. Consider that the Conservatives had an unpopular candidate and the NDP had a very strong one. Even if the NDP win half of the Federal Liberal vote in Comox Valley, the simple fact that this part is the more Conservative half means that the BC Liberals would still be ahead. Consider that Stan Hagen is the incumbent and a “nice guy,” and it’s clear he has an advantage, although this riding will be relatively close.
28 03 05 A. Vancouverite
Many of the predictions on this site are based on the 96' results, and redistribution. That means that the riding will be relatively close but 9 years is a long time and who knows how many new people are in the riding and who knows how many of the older residents have died? Who did they vote for? Can we know? A relatively dynamic riding like this makes a prediction difficult however there are factors that lead me to mine.
And so what if Stan Hagen is a "nice guy" will that trump more substantive issues? If the local NDP candidate can focus anger at the Liberal government over the changes to pharmacare properly it will be enough to get him elected. Also the federal NDP came within 1 point of winning the federal riding that included Comox Valley (I don't need to explain how the provincial NDP gets more votes than the federal one not to mention the fact that federally the NDP are the 3rd party whose vote bled a bit at the end whereas the 3rd party in BC, the Greens, will have their vote pressured into one of the Liberal or NDP camp) and so at the very least the NDP is very competitive. Anyhow with the health-care factor, that is usually very important for an elder population, and the federal results considered it should be close but Andrew Black will take it.
23 03 05 Mike Mulroney
In “reality” elderly people don’t simply flock to a specific region, and eventually wither in numbers and disappear. There are certain regions that are attractive to retired people, and have a constant flow of retired people moving in. Seniors almost always vote, are more likely to meet the candidates, and are more likely to vote for a “nice guy.” Stan Hagen is a nice guy running in a riding with a significant and increasing population of seniors in which the BC Liberals did very well in 2001, in which the right did well in 1996, and in which the Conservatives are popular federally.
22 03 05 M. Lunn
Yes, sometimes nice guys do lose, but Stan Hagen won't necessarily be one of them. This is amongst the five most winneable ridings on the Island and when considering the liberals are now at 37% on the Island while the Conservatives only got 30% last federal election on the Island, the BC Liberals are looking at around 42% for the riding of Vancouver Island North. Add to the fact the BC Liberal support is stronger in the Comox Valley than further North means that number will likely be around 45%. It will really come down to how strong the Green Party is. If the Green Party does well, Stan Hagen will be re-elected, while if they do poorly, he will lose his seat.
17 03 05 Mr.McLachlan
It is indisputable that the race between Hagen and Black will be a close one but in the end, the tables may turn in the NDP's favour. Issues such as the lack of promised hospital beds could sway the senior vote (which is considerable in the region) toward the NDP. The DRBC, with an early establishment in the Valley, may win a number of votes that would have otherwise gone to the liberals rather than the NDP. Black has launched an early start to a 'neighbour-to-neighbour' campaign in order to gain an insight into the issues that are of most concern to constituents. This will likely prove effective in terms of winning public support over a 50+ day period.
As of now, Hagen’s domestic involvement tactics are yet to be seen. The only thing Hagen has done so far is taken advantage of several photo opportunities. Unless Hagen can conceive some way to directly (and credibly) mar the NDP's image in the Valley while somehow managing to divert public attention from his not-so-glorious record, his popularity (or lack there of) will remain static and ultimately burn him at the polls.
12 03 05 A. Vancouverite
The fish farming scandal will defenetly hurt Stan Hagen. It may be old news in the rest of the province, but Hagen will be dogged by it locally and you can count on that. Thus it will hurt him. Also the Island should be the strongest region for the NDP so they'll have extra resources to try to Finish the Liberals off in the area. Also the claim that most of the retirement population is in the bag for the Liberals is over-rated. Health Care will most defenetly be a big issue. The NDP always has the advantage there, the Liberals will have difficulty side stepping that. Also as with any large retirement population, that btw is more of a factor in the nearby Nanaimo-Parksville riding fwiw, there will be people who are dying due to old age. As such draw the conclusion.....
12 03 05 Mike Mulroney
A quick look at the current situation and past results reveals that this riding is a sure hold for Stan Hagen. In 1996 the combined BC Liberal vote and Reform vote easily beats the NDP vote. In 2001, the BC Liberals were on par with the provincial average, while the NDP were two points behind. Incumbent Stan Hagen is a Cabinet Minister, is popular in the riding, and is a “nice guy.” Look at the numbers and the situation and it’s clear that the BC Liberals have a huge advantage, except to Peter Kelly, who also predicts that Gordon Campbell will lose Point Grey. Nice guys finish first when they are incumbent BC Liberal cabinet ministers running in the relatively conservative Comox Valley.
10 03 05 KH
Hagen has been a good MLA, and is pretty well respected in the community. He'll win again.
08 03 05 M. Lunn
This is probably one of the more winneable liberal ridings on the Island. While it is true the NDP nearly won Vancouver Island North federally, most of that support was from the North end such as Port Hardy and Port McNeil where they have a large union population, while the south end i.e. Comox Valley which has a large senior population went mostly conservative. Add to the fact the combined liberal/reform vote would have defeated the NDP in 1996. The NDP still has an advantage here, but I think this is one of five Vancouver Island ridings along with Nanaimo-Parksville, Saanich North & the Islands, Saanich South, and Oak Bay-Gordon Head, which the liberals can win.
08 03 05 Sacha P.
Stan Hagen will probably win this one, it's likely that the Green and DRBC candidates will end up splitting the vote. Hagen is personally popular and should carry the riding.
27 02 05 P. Kelly
Nice people lose elections all the time. Stan Hagen is a nice guy, but he paid the political price in 1991 for being Social Credit. The Comox Valley is more or less a swing seat, but leans NDP. Stan Hagen will pay the price for Gordon Campbell electorally. NDP will sweep the island, and not even Hagen can stop that wave.
28 02 05 Pete Smith
Hagen will win. A prior post commented on the Reform BC vote and the early nomination of DRBC candidate but this party is the PDA and left leaning - not the RBC. A few members crossed to Morino's new PDA but the RBC still exists and will be running candidates and actually in one poll I saw recently had 2% poll numbers.
24 02 05 Laurence Putnam
I'm finally going to venture a guess on one of the trickier ridings...I think Hagen will be back as one of the 3-5 BC Liberals who can squeak out Island wins. Campbell knows the Island will be tough and will put a lot into this riding, which with Hagen's profile, he should be able to win. Even when the NDP won it in 1996, there was still a 12% vote for Reform BC kicking around that prevented a Lib win. That said, DRBC has nominated a candidate here early, and if they get off the ground there could be a split here translating in an NDP win. For now, my money is on Hagen, but I will reserve the right to revise my prediction at a later date!
24 02 05 BLJ
A possible swing riding with the incumbent Stan Hagen. Demographics are changing with retirees moving from Alberta into the area and a potential strong Green vote, which may siphon some NDP support.

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