Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:34 PM 16/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:26 PM 22/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Jim Bell
BC Liberal
Graham Bruce
Democratic Reform BC
Brian Fraser Johnson
Green Party
Cindy-Lee Robinson
Doug Routley
The Freedom
Jeremy Harold Sandwith Smyth

BC Liberals:
BRUCE, Hon. Graham
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:7.41%
Area (km2):1696
Pop Density:29.86

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Malahat-Juan de Fuca

16 05 05 Mike
I think Graham Bruce will retain this riding despite the strong campaigns being run by the public sector unions. The weakness of the NDP candidate and his obvious strong union leanings. Graham Bruce's wide-ranging support includes support from the 2001 NDP candidate Rob Hutchins, mayor of Ladysmith, who has said that this riding needs to return a cabinet minister.
16 05 05 Island Gal
This one was going to be close, but given Bruce's interference in the altercation last week, it'll now go to Routley for sure.
09 05 05 ghoris
Graham Bruce has won this riding twice, but both times his party was in the process of sweeping the province. And as someone pointed out, he would not have been elected in 1986 on the current boundaries. The tide is definitely out for the Liberals this time on the Island, although they will hold three to five Island seats this won't be one of them. Bruce and his supporters are looking increasingly desperate these days (witness the Chemainus incident) and to me that's as sure a sign as any that they know they're going down. The NDP candidate might be a bit of a dud but in the end most people vote for the party. The NDP will take this one.
12 04 05 e
Graham Bruce is a very able MLA who has been able to effectively represent his constituents in the Assembly. Furthemore, given his high position on Cabinet and the low notability of the NDP opponent, Graham is set to win.
31 03 05 A. Vancouverite
This is clearly one of the safest NDP seats in the province. They could run a sign post and win, as is obvious the 2001 results are an anomoly. It's heavily unionized and Graham Bruce's position as Labour Minister will likely be a determent. The NDP won the Nanimo-Cowichan federal seat by over 6,000 votes. The provincial NDP draws even higher in the vote totals than that. Clearly this is going NDP.
02 04 05 Crystal Ball
Golly Gee, a little early for the N-Dippers to break out the champagne bottles on this one. There's Graham Bruce billboards, Graham Bruce TV ads whizzing around, there's big print ads. The NDP have every right to believe, based on history, that they can win here, but Graham Bruce is a very effective MLA and an experienced campaigner. NDPer Doug Routley is a noname public sector union organizer who is constantly confused with Bill Routley, the better known IWA leader. When Carole James visited here recently, they drew more Liberals onlookers than NDPers. History says NDP, but the street is another matter. Don't count Graham Bruce out yet.
28 03 05 Pundit
Grahan Bruce will win because he gets a small bump as an incumbent but more so because the NDP candidate is so very weak. If the NDP had David Essig as the candidate, then an easy win. As it stands, a narrow Liberal win unless the NDP falls to 35% provincially, then an easy Liberal win
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
This is traditional NDP territory. If it went NDP in the last federal election you can be sure it will go NDP in the provincial election who are polling 10 to 15% higher than their federal counterparts. Even though Graham Bruce won in 1986 as a Social Credit member, the riding boundaries were quite a bit different and under the current riding boundaries he would have lost in 1986.
21-Feb-05 P. Kelly
Graham Bruce is one of the most polarizing figures of the BC Liberal government. Historically, the Cowichan Valley is NDP turf, and like 1991, Graham Bruce will have to retire to his grocery business...this time he should stay there.

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