Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
10:57 AM 07/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:28 PM 22/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Brunie Brunie
Green Party
Doug Catley
Mat Dillon
BC Liberal
Mike Hunter
Leonard Krog
Refed BC
Linden Robert Shaw

BC Liberals:
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:9.13%
Area (km2):1320
Pop Density:38.98

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:

03 05 05 Marc D.
The Liberal, Mike Hunter, has recently come across as quite arrogant in
one two of the "all candidates" meetings, completely toeing the party line and claiming that he single handedly did a number of things that the audience knew he had not done. He doesn't seem to be doing well in other areas either.
The NDP candidate, Krog, is reasonably polished, and although not that well known his name is definitely quite visible this election.
Catley, from the Green Party, could sour the deal for Krog though. He is articulate and gathering a small but loyal following. There are those who instead of voting tactically for the NDP may vote for the Green Party, thus splitting the vote the NDP will need to win.
The Liberals are still quite popular around here, probably because they haven't closed the local hospital and are being seen as giving lots of money in the area. It's going to be quite close, but I still predict an NDP win, unless the Greens gain enough support to queer the deal and let Mike back in.
28 04 05 V. Jara
This one is definitely going NDP. In the June 2004 election, the Federal NDP candidate polled about 45% in the polls that make up this riding. The Greens (a factor in the 2001 provincial election, particularly on Gabriola Island where a split allowed the Liberals to win every single poll) were down in piddly single digits.
The Liberals also made a huge mistake by passing Bill 37 (the one that forced retroactive pay cuts and allowed for 'hiring out' of health employees services) as it enraged this community. I was in the riding at the time and people were absolutely livid. There were hundreds of people out on picket lines. Health care is the largest local employer.
Mike Hunter may or may not be a nice man, but he has failed this community. The last straw for me was when emergency room doctors had to shut down the unit for lack of support staff.
01 04 05 Mark Robinson
Sorry, Mike.
Though I like Mike Hunter personally, word is people are going to vote NDP. Mike's not a bad guy; he did his work as MLA and even went out of his way on many occasions.
But Leonard Krog has a strong army of volunteers. He has experience as an MLA. He has the NDP war machine. He's a former candidate for the leadership, coming second to Carole James.
He's waited a long time for this.
Paul Reitsma edged him out of office slightly by a few votes in 1996 in Parksville - Qualicum (now largely Nanaimo - Parksville). That must have hurt.
But worry not, Len...
You'll be back in Victoria.
14 03 05 A. Vancouverite
Nanaimo is a traditionally an NDP stronghold. Even their federal candidate won this riding, that included the Cowachin-Ladysmith area, by over 6,000 votes. Besides the provincial NDP always polls around 10 to 15 percent more than the federal NDP on top of the fact that this is one of the most winnable ridings for the NDP in the province make this prediction extremely easy. FWIW Leonard Krog was the MLA in the Nanaimo-Parksville riding from 1991 to 1996, that's the only reason he lost since it's much more open to being won by a right-wing party. The Liberals will abandon this riding to make an attempt at defending Nanaimo-Parksville. Krog will win by around 20 points.
10 03 05 Tim
Liberals in Nanaimo? KH clearly doesn't know the area very well. Krog's a lock here. The Liberals would be well advised to concentrate their efforts on the much more winnable Nanaimo-Parksville.
10 03 05 KH
Nanaimo has recently been singled out in the media for a complete turn around in their economy since the NDP days 1990s. Their economy is booming - and they will re-elect Hunter to make sure that the good times keep rolling.
23-Feb-05 Laurence Putnam
Emminently winnable for the NDP. Krog is well-liked and kept his name-rec up as a still-current mover & shaker with his leadership bid. When the James' Vancouver Island tide comes in, Krog's boat will float.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
As much as I do not want to see Leonard Krog return to Victoria, I predict he will. This is a traditional NDP riding and considering they only lost be 14% back in 1996, this should be an easy NDP¨win. The Liberals would be better to focus on the riding of Nananimo-Parksville to the North, which they actually might be able to win.
21-Feb-05 JC
Leonard Krog lost by 14 points last time to mike hunter, public opinion has changed and the NDP and Liberals continue to trade places in the polls, this is going to be one of the seats that the NDP pick up.
21-Feb-05 P. Kelly
Losing Nanaimo to the Liberals was a freak accident. The 2001 electoral meltdown will not be repeated here for the NDP and with some considerable ease, this seat is going back to the NDP.

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